GAINING ONE’S BEHRENS
How did Andy Behrens open up a 23 point lead over Doug Dennis and Steve Gardner in Tout Wars Mixed?
1) Three closers (paid for to be sure) earn him all but one point in Saves.
2) A handful of $1 starters have him leading the pack in Wins and ERA, and fourth in WHIP.
3) Classic offensive construction for shallow mixed leagues had him go stars (Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, Kevin Youkilis) and scrubs (no other player cost more than $5).
So, how did he start?
Jerrod Saltalamacchia 4
Ramon Hernandez 1
Not so good. Hernandez was okay. Salty’s replacement Barajas was better.
Adrian Gonzalez 27
Kevin Youkilis 30
Aubrey Huff 2
That’s better. Huff is a great example why you don’t want to spend middlin’ dollars on average players in shallow leagues. There are always guys like this available for a buck or two. Pay for reliability and the skills no one else has.
Chase Utley 42
Hanley Ramirez 45
Jose Reyes 21
Utley wasn’t a bust before he got hurt, and Reyes’ hot streak made him a good purchase after the wait for him to get going, but Reyes’ oblique is a concern, and Behrens is going to miss Utley, who is out through the end of August. That, of course, is the downside of Stars and Scrubs, but in a shallow league finding a decent replacement isn’t impossible. Mike Aviles is filling in for Utley.
Nick Swisher 5
Dexter Fowler 2
Chase Headley 1
Cameron Maybin 1
Scott Podsednik 1
Swisher and Podsednik good, Fowler and Maybin not. Headley wasn’t great, but hey, he was only a buck. On Memorial Day Behrens traded for Nick Markakis, and picked up Mike Stanton shortly thereafter. In a shallow league there are options.
Gaby Sanchez 1
Solid enough lately, especially for just a buck.
Johan Santana 19
Brian Wilson 17
Heath Bell 17
Carlos Marmol 15
John Danks 5
Mark Buehrle 1
Ricky Romero 1
Erik Bedard 1
Carl Pavano 1
The emphasis here was on the closers, for whom he paid real money and got a real number of saves. He later picked John Axford off waivers, too, and traded Heath Bell on the fourth of July for Aviles and Matt Garza. He won’t miss Bell, he has such a cushion in saves, and with Danks and Santana anchoring a for Carl Pavano and Mike Pelfrey, he’s in the top three in every category except RBI (blame Markakis) and K.
Mark Teahen
Adam Kennedy
Randy Wells
Desmond Jennings
Is this a winning team? Andy has made all the right moves so far, but the loss of Utley is serious. He could easily lose a point or two or three in all the hitting categories, which won’t cost him the lead but could make him vulnerable if one of the contenders, Dennis or Wiegert, gets hot. So let’s just say that we’d rather be him than anyone else.
What does Andy have to say about this? And the other Touts? Read on…
ANDY BEHRENS
What has gone right for you this season?
I really had a solid auction, spending max dollars at talent-scarce positions and finding some useful $1 pitchers (Carl Pavano, Ricky Romero, Mark Buehrle). Until very recently, I also had a healthy team. I’ve received better-than-expected seasons from low-dollar players like Aubrey Huff, Nick Swisher, Gaby Sanchez, Scott Podsednik and Chase Headley, too. Prior to auction day, I’d decided that I really liked a bunch of outfielders and utility options who were likely to go for $1 or $2; obviously I’m lucky that a few of them have turned a profit.
What has gone wrong?
Not much, until the last few weeks. But recently Chase Utley hit the DL, and Jose Reyes has flirted with it. I’ve found replacements, but c’mon. Mike Aviles isn’t Utley and Jason Donald can’t even do a bad impression of Reyes. I need healthy middle infielders; that’s where I really invested on auction day. I also whiffed on Justin Smoak, a player who took a big chunk of my FAAB budget.
What are your chances of winning?
BP hasn’t updated their Tout playoff odds report in a few weeks, so I’m not sure.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
I can’t absorb many more injuries, nor can I handle any major pitching blowups. I’ve been starting some sketchy SPs, playing match-ups, and I’m afraid of what a few rough outings from guys like Randy Wells, Buehrle and Pavano might do. Also, it would be excellent if either Swisher or Huff could keep up the pace — I can’t reasonably expect both of them to do it, but one would be nice.
CHARLIE WIEGERT
What has gone right for you this season?
My starting pitching has been solid, Lester, Kershaw and Liriano leading the way, and my offense has stole bases and scored runs while holding a good Batting Average, creating a situation where I can trade my surplus to help my weaknesses.
What has gone wrong?
I was weak on the closer side from the get go. Mike Gonzalez and Drew Storen have provided nothing, and I didn’t get the HR/RBI production I expected from my hitters.
What are your chances of winning?
20 percent. I took a good look a things just as we hit the half way point, and realized I needed to make some changes if I was going to make a run at this. I needed a closer or two now to help Franklin or I’d have to write off the category, and there was nothing to gain by that since I already lead wins and strike outs. I had a 32 SB lead, so I could trade some for HR/RBI’s.
I put a bunch of trade offers out, offering what I considered to be fair trades to all. I looked to see who needed what I had to offer, and what they could trade me back in return. I had tried to make 3 or 4 other trades this year, which all fell on deaf ears.
My first offer of Juan Pierre for Carlos Quinton was rejected. A multiple player trade offer with Nando DiFino almost went through, but I misunderstood his rejection. When I added a McCutchen for Hamilton enhancement, he decide not to trade. He meant just that part, but would have made the other trade. But I had already offered the players I offered to him to a couple others. I got lucky that Andy Behrens trade of Heath Bell did not go through, due to a league rule and his trading partner being in Ireland. He was originally going to get Biliingsley back, and I had better pitchers to offer. He was still reluctant, but when Chase Utley went down, he asked if I’d trade him him Mike Aviles and with Matt Garza for Bell. I made the trade, a little reluctant because helping the league leader is not a good practice, but I needed Bell and he was going somewhere!
I went back and revisited my trade with Nando, now not needing K-Rod from him and willing to take a lesser closer like Lindstrom. He was willing to part with Matt and Derek Jeter for Tommy Hanson, Nate Robertson, Ryan Theriot and Ivan Rodriquez. I tried to lure Chris Perez from Dave Gonos for Xavier Nady, but he wouldn’t go for it. At the end of the day, I accomplished what I set out to do, trde SB’s and K’s for HR/RBI’s and Saves, getting Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom, Carlos Lee and Derek Jeter for Tommy Hanson, Matt Garza, Nate Roberson, Juan Pierre, Ryan Theriot and Ivan Rodriquez.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
The guys I acquired in the trade need to continue to perform as they have been, and the rest of the team needs to continue as they have. Buster Posey, who I got laughed at during the draft for proposing, needs to continue his hitting. De Rosa needs to do well now that he’s back from the DL, and Tulo needs to come back and contribute.
DOUG DENNIS
What has gone right for you this season?
Luck with pitching—a whole lot of luck with pitching. Especially with Andy Pettitte. That was a lucky draft pick. At least so far.
What has gone wrong?
It is hard for me to complain. I would like Rajai Davis to get enough PT to steal 50 bases or so. (Given how much I’ve spent on crappy A’s in roto over the years, I feel like the A’s owe me something).
What are your chances of winning?
2%? I’m not completely out of it, but I do find myself rooting for injuries to players on Andy Behrens’s team to give me any chance at all.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
A lot. More lucky pitching (it would be nice if Tampa would use Hellickson), find a source of steals with PT (or see Rajai get back into regular PAs), no injuries to my team, many injuries to Andy’s team, and then nothing crazy from Cushing, Gonos, Gardner or any other teams.
ALEX CUSHING
What has gone right for you this season?
Offense, with the exception of middle infield. Big investments paid off, from Joey Votto ($29) to Evan Longoria (36) to Carl Crawford (39). A few good-value picks and end-gamers—Corey Hart (6), Magglio Ordonez (4), Delmon Young (3), Carlos Santana (1). In terms of arms, three quality ones in Verlander (21), Soria (18) and Phil Hughes (9). A couple of decent late-game fliers worked out—Brett Myers (2), Gio Gonzalez (2)—and a few pleasant surprises off the waiver wire, including Dallas Braden, Alex Gonzalez, Evan Meek, Pedro Alvarez (cheaply, days before callup) and, to a lesser extent, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeremy Bonderman.
What has gone wrong?
Middle infield and the bullpen, largely. Between Jimmy Rollins (27) and Brian Roberts (16), neither has played one full, healthy month. That’s been a huge blow, and probably self-inflicted, on some level. Roberts’ price tag was fair on draft day, but his health issues were well documented in Spring Training. And Rollins left me hanging before in Tout Wars. Heeding the advice of George W. Bush would have served me well here: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…..you can’t get fooled again.” In the ‘pen, while Soria has fulfilled his contract, Frank Francisco (10) completely flopped in the season’s first week, leaving me scrambling for another closer ever since. Adding insult to injury, I cut Matt Thornton, something of a panic move when my injuries began piling up and he had yet to overtake Bobby Jenks. Missing Edwin Encarnacion’s six-homer week caused some heartburn. Oh, I also made one stupid deal, dishing Aaron Harang for Mark DeRosa, days before DeRosa admitted he’d been playing injured all year. He hasn’t made one plate appearance for me.
What are your chances of winning?
Below 50 percent, but not impossible.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
In order to win, my team needs: a monster second half from Rollins, something, ANYTHING, from Roberts, another reliable closer or two, a little luck in the rotation and continued growth from most of my first-half success stories.
PERRY VAN HOOK
What has gone right for you this season?
Well the offense has been what I thought it would be—10+ points in each category; and the RP I got for good prices in the auction—David Aardsma and Matt Capps have done very well.
What has gone wrong?
The injuries to Kendry Morales Asrubal Cabrera, and now the loss of Shin-Soo Choo have made it hard to maintain the offensive points I had earlier; and the lack of Wins by some good SP, especially Greinke have put me in a big hole in that category.
What are your chances of winning?
Pretty slim realistically, but if the leaders falter and go below 100 points, I have the upside to get into the nineties and at least be among the top three or four teams.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
Greinke and Wandy have to pitch like they were supposed to and I have to choose the other starters very carefully each week. On offense I need James Loney to continue the production I hoped for in trading for him and Coco Crisp has to start running more. Getting Asdrubal Cabrera back in the lineup would also help.
NICK MINNIX
What has gone right for you this season?
Largely, my waiver wire acquisitions—Brennan Boesch, Ty Wigginton, Pat Burrell, Matt LaPorta (so far), Mike Aviles for a short spell, Brett Cecil for a while, Tyler Clippard for most of his incredible streak of wins that be backed into—have helped me stay alive.
I targeted undervalued players, and some of them have worked out well—Rafael Furcal ($3), Justin Morneau (relatively, at $26), Denard Span ($12) and John Buck ($3), along with Johnny Damon ($12) and Bobby Abreu ($18) to an extent. On the pitching side, I targeted Billy Wagner ($14) in just about every league, and that’s about how many I have him in. I was incredibly high on Ryan Dempster ($12), and I thought relatively cheap buys in CC Sabathia ($24) and Chad Billingsley ($11, although I had little interest in him at coming in) gave me a good foundation.
What has gone wrong?
When you target too many undervalued players, you end up with some who are undervalued for what would seem to be the correct reasons, or at least those who don’t return a little more production: Jason Bay ($20) and Kerry Wood ($5), specifically. On top of it, because I wanted to establish a solid BA foundation (which I did) and didn’t spend a great deal on my middle infield, I found myself having to take runs on questionable sources of power.
I was interested in taking a run on Chris Davis ($16), but Aaron Hill ($20) was more of a necessity buy. Hill and Yunel Escobar ($13) have been banes of my existence. Kyle Blanks ($4) didn’t work out like I’d hoped. My cheap upside pitchers—Derek Lowe, Homer Bailey and Jason Hammel—were hit and miss. Unfortunately, Hammel has done all of his hitting on someone else’s team.
What are your chances of winning?
You know how you can go to the fan page of some cute celeb—for argument’s sake, we’ll call her Nichole Hiltz—and find out things about her? And, you know, you send her a message, which you’re uncertain will even make it to her, saying maybe she and you could meet for a cup of chai and get to know each other on a personal level? And you know it’s highly unlikely, but dammit, there just might be a chance? You might get a ghostwritten response in your inbox, and you can print it, hang it on your wall and cherish it forever. It’s kind of like that.
I have a decent chance to move beyond the middle of the pack. It’ll take a lot to knock Andy Behrens’ finely constructed squad from the ranks, though. Even then, only a couple of teams can really challenge him.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
After the break, Matt LaPorta has to deliver on all the promise he has plus whatever he’d need to do to make up for the year or so he disappointed other fantasy owners. And, I’ll need to clone CC Sabathia. I expect Jason Bay and Yunel Escobar to have much better second halves, and Aaron Hill should find it within himself to hit at least .250 after the break. If Alfredo Simon and Kerry Wood remain favorites for saves on their respective teams, and I can piece together a trade from that area of my team, I might be able to make it interesting.
PAUL PETERA
What has gone right for you this season?
I spent $6 on Scott Rolen, Brett Gardner and Seth Smith combined. Josh Johnson has been everything I hoped he would be.
I traded Mark DeRosa away right before he was shelved for the year.
What has gone wrong?
I spent $70 on Adam Lind, Aramis Ramirez and Matt Weiters combined.
Not going the extra buck on Ubaldo Jimenez ticked me off at the draft table and continues to tick me off every fifth day.
What are your chances of winning?
Slim and none, but Slim left town.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
My whole staff will have to pitch like Josh Johnson.
Massive injuries to Behrens, Dennis and Gardner…or maybe locusts.
ERIC MACK
What has gone right for you this season?
Not much, really. Just about every one of my players has underperformed in the first half, save for Jered Weaver, perhaps. I did make some deft maneuvers to replenish my pitching staff by picking up Trevor Cahill, Tommy Hunter, Madison Bumgarner and Bud Norris cheaply off the waiver wire. They have been surprisingly effective when they have been active for me. Guys like Jose Guillen and Juan Uribe—yes, that is how bad my team has been—have been nice pickups, too.
What has gone wrong?
Just about everything. Carlos Zambrano epitomizes my team’s self-destruction. He is now squarely on the waiver wire. Jacoby Ellsbury, Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Jair Jurrjens, Oliver Perez (thankfully), Alex Gordon and Brian Fuentes have all had DL stints. Ellsbury’s loss stings the most because of my low standings in AVG (15th), R (12th) and SB (11th). Those are easily my worst categories and the ones Ellsbury would have excelled at if he was healthy. I also made an aggressive (yet ill-advised) blockbuster three-way trade that netted me the disappointing Jon Papelbon, the mediocre Alfonso Soriano and non-factor Triple-A farmhand Alex Gordon. What did I have to give up to get them? Oh, just the AL wins leader and likely All-Star Game starter David Price, potential 18-game-winner John Lackey and Will Venable, who was on a 20-20 pace until he went to the DL.
What are your chances of winning?
Nil. I think finishing fourth should be what I am shooting for at this point. If my drafted players market-correct to their expectation and all my DL guys get and stay healthy, a top-half finish is possible, if not likely.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
The top three teams in the league currently all have to have a second half worse than my first half. Since I consider my team’s self-destruction borderline monumental, I don’t see it happening.
SETH TRACHTMAN
What has gone right for you this season?
Miguel Cabrera. That’s about it.
What has gone wrong?
I left the draft feeling great, but it’s been one disappointment and DL stint after another with this team. The disappointments include Dan Haren, Trevor Hoffman, Jhonny Peralta, Chris Coghlan, Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman. The DL stints include Shaun Marcum, Derek Holland, J.J. Hardy, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Dustin Pedroia, Mark Teahen, John Baker, and Eric Young Jr. Nate McLouth applies to both lists.
What are your chances of winning?
Very slim. I’m excited about the second half improvement possibilities for Dan Haren, Gavin Floyd and Barry Zito, as well as having at least two more months of Stephen Strasburg and a half season of Edinson Volquez. However, there’s a ton of ground to cover.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
Everything would have to go perfectly, and I’d need my players to have the second half of a lifetime across the board. Good luck.
ERIC KARABELL
What has gone right for you this season?
Very little has gone right. Of course, it’s a long season. I just got out of last place a few weeks ago, though the projected standings have had this team in the top four all year. Paul Konerko at $9, that has gone right. Nobody else on the team with more than 10 home runs, despite having some power bats, that’s been a disappointment. Waiting a month for Cliff Lee obviously worked out, as well as free agent pitchers Brandon Morrow, Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro and Jason Vargas.
What has gone wrong?
On offense, there have been huge disappointments, led by Gordon Beckham, Jason Bartlett and Todd Helton, and to a lesser degree Ben Zobrist, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui. I thought about making trades, but if you’re going to buy low on hitters, it seems like I have a strong core group with which to do so with. And on the mound, watching Javier Vazquez, Rick Porcello, J.A. Happ and Brad Lidge pitch hasn’t been much fun, though I expect all to end up putting up decent numbers.
What are your chances of winning?
I don’t see much chance, but with two-thirds of the team underachieving, I suppose it’s possible everyone will get going at some point. Beckham and Bartlett have probably done too much batting average damage to save that category. This shouldn’t be a bottom-five team, though.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
Jason Heyward has to bat .450 with a home run every other day. And he needs to win 10 games on the mound, too. If only he was healthy.
JP KASTNER
What has gone right for you this season?
My lower cost players taken later in the auction have been very good. Marco Scutaro at $2, Colby Rasmus at $7, Jeff Niemann at $2 and Neftali Feliz at $2 have all given me great value. Even Nick Hundley, my $1 cricket has helped.
What has gone wrong?
My most expensive players have failed to perform. Prince Fielder has only 38 RBI from his 19 homeruns! Come on! Pablo Sandoval has also been a major disappointment. The simple reality is that if your impact players have no impact you’re going to find yourself in the bottom of the standings and that is what is happening to me now. I’ve tried to trade, but no one wants them and I don’t blame them.
What are your chances of winning?
I have little to no chance. I’m too deep in the hole.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
Basically, I need everyone to stay healthy and every single player exceed their expectations from this day forward.
NANDO DiFINO
What has gone right for you this season?
I have grown closer to Eric Karabell as a person.
What has gone wrong?
Everything else possibly imaginable.
What are your chances of winning?
I still have a shot. I know it sounds like the ravings of a mad man, but as poorly as I performed in the first half, I have hopes for the opposite of that in the second.
What has to happen from here on forward for you to win?
If the Internet is attacked by cyber-terorists, all information pertaining to this league is lost, society devolves, and we all just play rock-paper-scissors until a winner is proclaimed, I have a shot. Or if David Gonos decides to kill everyone but me in a bloody massacre (“Scott Kazmir talked to me in my dreams and told me to”), and the bosses decide to just have the league end up with everyone tied for first as a tribute, I think my chances are decent.