If the Tout AL Teams Played Perfect…

STATS’ Dean Peterson’s first monthly look at which teams are using all their talent, and which have some in reserve…

The Second Scoop

Why is that guy on the bench?

The rules in Tout Wars allow each team to have up to four players on their bench.  These players can be major or minor leaguers who can be interchanged with active players each week, but do not include disabled players.

Naturally, one of the keys to success rests with teams that have viable options on their bench. Since only American league players are used, and few free agent players are available the bench is counted on to replace wounded players.

Injuries are part of the game we must all contend with, but, anticipating which players will be hot, or not, over each weekly cycle of stats is indeed a skill that requires both the knowledge of what players can do, and using one’s intuition. It is also a skill that can be elusive and reassuring, as the lists below suggest.

For in them, we look at some of the choices the Tout Owners made first with pitching, then hitting.  (First player listed was on the bench for that time period)

Pitching Comparisons
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton ERA W Sv IP H ER TBB SO whip
Wk 1 Jesse Crain over Gran Balfour -7.47 0 0 1.66 -2 -2 0 -2 -1.205
Wk 3 Kyle Davies over Edwin Jackson 0.00 0 0 0 -12 -7 -4 4 0.000
Jeff Erickson
Wk 2 Tyson Ross over Francisco Liriano 0.00 1 0 0 -4 -5 3 2 0.000
Larry Schechter
Wk 1 Tony Sipp over Jason Vargas -2.13 0 0 1.66 -8 -7 0 3 -4.819
Wk 3 Jason Frasor over Tony Sipp -5.99 0 0 1.33 0 -2 -1 1 -0.752
Lawr Michaels
Wk 2 Tim Wakefield over Joe Nathan 0.00 0 0 0.666 3 0 -2 -1 1.502
Mike Siano
Wk 1 Kevin Jepsen over Chris Ray 5.99 0 0 -1.33 -3 -2 1 1 1.504
Jason Grey
Wk 1 Bruce Chen over Tim Collins 0.00 0 0 5.33 2 0 -1 6 0.188
Wk 2 Vinnie Pestano over Kevin Gregg 0.00 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0.500
Jason Collette
Wk 1 Marc Rzepczynski over Brett Cecil 1.80 0 0 -1 -10 -5 -1 1 11.000
Wk 2 Jeremy Jeffress over Jeremy Guthrie 1.50 0 1 -1 -8 -6 1 1 7.000

 

 

OFFENSIVE Comparisons
Todd Zola AVG AB R H HR RBI SB
WK 2 Corey Patterson over Torii Hunter 3.500 2 1 7 0 3 2
Wk 3 Mike McCoy over Andruw Jones 0.500 2 0 1 0 0 0
Matthew Berry
Wk 3 Luke Hughes over Dan Johnson 1.000 2 0 2 0 0 0
Jason Grey
Wk 3 Adam Kennedy over Alexei Ramirez 5.000 1 3 5 2 4 0

 

As we can see, the changes are subtle, but never-the-less, in leagues where a point can be the difference between finishing first, and a useless second, making the correct choice of who to play and who to bench is a serious business, as the adjusted standings below note.

The Re-calculated overall standings with best players active as of April 24:

Team         R          HR       RBI         SB     AVG
Peterson   10.0        12.0      11.5        5.5         10.0  
Schechter   7.5(-1.0)   8.5       9.5(-0.5)  9.5          6.0 
Zola        3.0         8.5       5.0        3.0(+2.0)    1.0 
Moyer       4.0         1.5       2.0        5.5         11.0
Grey        9.0(+2.0)  10.5(+0.5) 9.5(+0.5)  7.0          9.0(+2.0) 
Wolf/Colton 7.5(-1.0)   4.5       3.0        9.5          4.0(-1.0)
Erickson   12.0        10.5(-0.5)11.5        8.0         12.0
Michaels   11.0         3.0       8.0       11.0          8.0(-1.0)  
Collette    2.0         1.5       4.0        4.0          7.0(-1.0)
Shandler    5.0         7.0       7.0        1.5(-1.0)    3.0
Berry       6.0         4.5       6.0       12.0          5.0(+1.0)
Siano       1.0         6.0       1.0        1.5(-1.0)    2.0
 
Team         W           SV          ERA          WHIP       SO    TOT
Peterson    4.0(-0.5)   8.0(-0.5)   6.0(-3.0)    9.0(+1.0)   7.0   83.0 (-3.0)
Schechter   2.0(-0.5)   8.0(-0.5)   8.0          8.0(+2.0)  12.0   79.0 (-0.5)
Zola       12.0        11.5        11.0(-1.0)   12.0(-1.0)  11.0   77.0
Moyer      10.0        11.5        10.0(-1.0)   10.0(-1.0)   9.0   74.5 (-2.0)
Grey        8.0         4.5(-0.5)   4.0(-1.0)    6.0(+2.0)   6.0   73.5 (+5.5)
Wolf/Colton11.0         4.5(-0.5)   7.0         12.0(+3.0)  10.0   73.0 (+0.5)
Erickson    4.0(+1.5)   1.0         5.0(+3.0)    4.0(+2.0)   4.0   72.0 (+6.0)
Michaels    4.0(-0.5)   2.0         9.0(+3.0)    2.0(-5.0)   3.0   61.0 (-3.5)
Collette    8.0         8.0(+3.0)  12.0(+2.0)    7.0(-3.0)   2.0   55.5 (+1.0)
Shandler    6.0         4.5(-0.5)   3.0(-1.0)    5.0         5.0   47.5 (-2.5)
Berry       1.0         4.5(-0.5)   2.0(-1.0)    3.0         1.0   45.0 (-0.5)
Siano       8.0        10.0         1.0          1.0         8.0   39.5 (-1.0)

 

Over the first month, there was a maximum 9.5 point shift in the standings. Jeff Erickson (+6) and Jason Grey (+5.5) have the biggest potential gain in the standings, while Lawr Michaels (-3.5) and I (-3.0) are enjoying the fact teams left some good statistics on the bench. Even the best of the best have the tough lineup decisions to make each week.

Teams, such as Steve Moyer and me, who had their best players active all April, can only lose points in this chart, while Jason Grey who had 3 better players on the bench has the most to gain. This doesn’t seem like a lot of points, but Jason just might wish he had those extra points at the end of the season.

So that’s the second scoop of Tout Wars standings.  Like heading to the ice cream parlor, after the server stuffs the cone with the first scoop, it’s the second scoop heaped on top that tastes the best.  The second look at tout standings shows the true strength of teams with the talent that they have available.