Tout Wars NL leader and USA Today columnist Steve Gardner describes his situation going into the season’s final seven days:
“There’s exactly one week left in the regular season. And without a doubt it’s going to be the longest week of the year.
That’s the feeling you have when your fantasy team is in first place — like mine is in the NL Tout Wars experts league. On Sunday, I had a 10.5-point lead on Mastersball.com’s Brian Walton … but in just a couple days he whittled the margin down to 6.5. I can tell these last few days are going to be absolutely brutal.
It was nerve-wracking last year when I was in a tight three-way battle in the Tout Wars mixed league. But that was different because I was always the third wheel trying to stick my nose in there — and I never really got a sniff of the lead. This time, I’m the one trying to hold on for dear life.
What am I going to be watching most intently? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Brian is breathing down my neck in three of the five pitching categories.
I lead ERA 3.31 to 3.37.
I lead WHIP 1.21 to 1.23
I lead strikeouts 1070 to 1041
I’m not just wearing one target on my back, I’m wearing three. Because I can still gain ground in wins, I can’t afford to run a bunch of relievers out there to protect my ratios. If any of my starting pitchers have a major meltdown, I could see those leads in ERA and WHIP evaporate in an instant. With Brian there waiting to pounce — and with RotoWire’s Chris Liss between us with a 1.22 WHIP — there’s potential six-point swing in those ratio categories.
With all that said, I really do like the guys I have out there. Madison Bumgarner has been awesome since the All-Star break (8-3, 2.43). Zack Greinke has rewarded my patience with almost-identical (8-3, 2.29) stats over that span. They’ll go next for me on Thursday and Saturday.
The problem with being in first place is that there’s nowhere to go but down. Outside of possibly a point in wins, there’s almost no chance for me to move up in any other category. So in effect, I have to do what never seems to work in pro football — play not to lose.
But since it’s fantasy baseball we’re playing, maybe the results will turn out better.