With the season winding down we thought it might be interesting to see what our Tout Warriors were thinking. We’ll be posting their stories over the next few days.
I’m going to humbly answer the questions from the “contender†perspective, since I am leading in Mixed…
What are your chances of winning as a percentage? Barring a total collapse by my team down the stretch, the league is mine to lose. Even given some level of slumping I only have about 4-5 points at-risk, and the two teams battling for second place seem to be capped out at gaining about 5-7 points each, so even with a net loss of 12 points my current 16-point lead should still stand up. I’d put my chances at winning at better than 90% right now.
What percentage of your success this year was based on your draft? Almost entirely. I certainly did “miss†on some draft day purchases, but the core of my team was entirely obtained through the draft, and more importantly, the team I drafted has stayed extremely healthy. Even those who have been disappointments from an ROI standpoint – Kinsler, Hosmer and Montero, to name a few – have still been contributors.
What percentage was based on trading? None. I made exactly one trade this year season, and as of today, I’m quite clearly “losing†it, and it’s not even close. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make!
What percentage was based on waiver pickups? A fair amount. Other than Rajai Davis, my leading base-stealer, I haven’t found any blockbuster values on waivers, but I have made incremental improvements to a few weak spots via the wire. I’ve also used the waiver wire to help build and supplement my starting pitching depth with guys like Marco Estrada, Clayton Richard and – for a few well-timed spot-starts – Blake Beaven and even Justin Masterson.
What was the best thing that happened to your team this year? Edwin Encarnacion! I’ve been touting him for so long as a breakout player that acquiring him year after year was starting to feel like masochism, but all of the waiting and suffering has paid off this year, and then some. The man formerly known as E5 will forever have a place in my heart no matter where we go from here.
What was the worst thing? And how did you get over it? I was dead wrong about Alex Presley, thinking he’d be a draft-day steal at $4, and then spent $10 in FAAB to re-acquire him after his recall from Triple-A. And, my trade of Heyward and Hanrahan for Granderson has not worked out well at all. But, if that’s as bad as things get this year, that probably explains why I’m winning!