Day: October 2, 2012

I feel like I’m hanging on by a thread. But that’s not bad, considering a few weeks ago I fell out of 1st place a few days here and there. My lead is down to two points, and I’m vulnerable in many categories. A bad hitting day could potentially result in up to 6 points losts (2 for RBI’s and one every other category).

Jeff should be able to maintain his wins lead over Shandler, because Jeff has 4 scheduled SP to just 1 for Ron. Likewise, I should stay ahead of Ron and Chris Liss for K’s, because I have 3 SP to their 1 and 2 SP, respectively. I’m expecting to pass Wolf/Colton, because I’m just 2 K’s behind, and have a 3-1 SP edge.

There are many conflicting situations, such as I’d like Wolf/Colton to hit a few HR’s (to catch Jeff, but only solo shots, because they’re right behind me in RBI’s).

Last night, there were times when I was thinking, “would I rather have Felix get out of this jam and get a K, or would it be better if Callaspo got a hit and an RBI?”……and “If Saunders knocks in Montero, the run by Montero (for Andy) would hurt Jeff, but the RBI (for Lawr) would hurt me.”

This is definitely a bit crazy. If I paid this much attention to every run, RBI, etc., the entire year, I’d have to quit playing this game. At least onroto.com makes it very easy to look up which player is on each team.

Sunday was a little nuts watching football, baseball (on the internet) and the Ryder Cup.

Jeff said he could be the only AL-only team that has Trout and doesn’t win. Could I possibly be the only AL-team that started Jamey Carroll all year and won? Jamey went 3-5 yesterday and missed a HR by a foot.

The highlight Monday was not baseball, it was the last scoring play of the MNF game. This might be a record…I won three different games for three different reasons on the last score.

See the standings here
JEFF ERICKSON writes-
I was feeling pretty despondent about my chances, and I’ve still got a pretty big uphill battle, but a good weekend has pushed me up to the Plausibility Zone. The categories have tightened up in a number of places – I still need help, but they could happen.

The areas where I could make up the three-point gap:

– Runs: I’m down 2 runs to Behrens, and Larry is up three on Leibowitz (14 on me – that’s not going to happen). So I could conceivably make up two points right there.

– HR: I’m tied with Rick/Glenn, one HR ahead of Rob, four behind Jason Collette. So possible 1.5 point upside, possible 1.5 point downside. But wait, there’s more. Larry entered tonight tied with Moyer in HR and one homer behind Lawr. So he has a 1.5-point upside and just a half-point downside.

– RBI: This is pretty funny. I’m locked-and-loaded in third place there, but Larry was up just four RBI on Rick/Glenn heading into tonight. So I find myself hoping they get more RBI, but not on homers. So Larry has one point of downside.

– SB: We each really only have downside here – I’m up 2 on Behrens, Larry is up 4 on Berry. Let’s call that 1 point of downside for me, half-point of downside for Larry.

– AVG: I’m locked into first in BA, but Larry started Monday .0003 ahead of Collette. One point of downside for Larry.

So, just with hitting, I have 2.5 points of upside, 2.5 points of downside. Larry has 1.5 points of upside, 4 points of possible downside. There’s a lot of swing potential right there.

More coming on the pitching side of things. Tomorrow I’ll dive more into specific players I’m rooting for and against.