Day: September 23, 2013

by Fred Zinkie

Like David, I assessed each category….

HR – probably not moving, but could gain or lose a point.

SB – probably not moving, but there’s a slim chance Dave could catch me, which would be a two-point swing.

RBI  – I could easily gain or lose a point.

R – Probably not moving, but there’s a chance I could lose a point.

OBP – Probably not moving up, but could easily lose a point.

W – Not moving up, but could easily lose a point.

SV – Probably not moving at all, but there’s a chance I could lose a point.

K – There’s a very slight chance I could gain a point, and I could lose one for sure.

ERA – Not moving at all.

WHIP – I can’t move up, and there’s a chance I could lose a point.

In the end, there aren’t many chances for me to move up this week.  I could gain a couple points, but there are many more for me to lose.

The last week of the season is tricky, because many fantasy teams aren’t as motivated, and the real teams aren’t as motivated either!  Placing my bids with just $4 left forced me to take whatever was left over.  In the end, I decided that volume was going to be my approach this week.  I want to have many starts, closers and hitters each day.  Here’s who I settled on:

1B – Sean Halton replaces Todd Helton.  I wanted to own a motivated Helton for most of his final stint at Coors Field, but he has just two more games at that venue.  Helton has just five games this week, and two are against the Dodgers twin aces – Kershaw and Greinke.  So, I replaced Helton with the next closest name – Halton!  I actually picked Halton because he has flashed some power and the Brewers play seven games this week.

OF – Cesar Hernandez replaces Nate Schierholtz.  I got great mileage out of Schierholtz all season, but he seems to have hit the wall.  His September numbers are terrible.  He faces some skilled hurlers this week, so I went with Hernandez, who I’m hoping with give me a better OBP.  For late-season callups like Hernandez, I like to make sure their Minor League OBP’s were good, since we are dealing with such a small sample size at the Major League level.  Hernandez has done well at both levels, and he should start six games this week.

OF – Jose Tabata replaces Josh Willingham.  I waited a long time for Willingham to come around and it didn’t happen.  Now his foot is bothering him again, and the Twins are giving him regular rest.  I’m expecting just three starts this week for Willingham, and the Twins face the talented Tigers staff in their first series of the week.  I’ll take my chances with Tabata, who has been doing a good job of getting on base this month.

OF – Craig Gentry replaces Curtis Granderson!  This one is my shocker of the bunch.  Gentry has been playing well of late, and the slumping Rangers play three of their seven home games against southpaws this week.  I was originally going to bench Eric Young, who has been a drain outside of steals in recent weeks.  But then Gonos added Billy Hamilton, and I decided to bench Granderson instead.  The Yankees center fielder has been awful in September.  He finishes things off with four left-handers this week, two of which come against Matt Moore and David Price.  I could also see Granderson heading to the bench at least once in the Astros weekend series, once the Yankees are officially eliminated.

SP – J.A. Happ replaces Sonny Gray.  Gray has one start this week, and I’m guessing that the A’s will limit him to five or six innings.  Happ has a two-start week and looked good against the Yankees last time out.  I chose Happ mainly because his second scheduled start comes against Chris Archer, who I also own.  That gives me a great chance to get a win from that game.

SP – James Paxton replaces Casey Janssen.  Needing wins more than saves, I decided to use Paxton this week.  I saw a tweet from Greg Johns of MLB.com on Sunday night, saying that Paxton will start the Mariners season finale.  That news made him a two-start pitcher, which put him on the top of my radar.  I lost out on two-start hurlers in Eric Stults and Todd Redmond, but with Happ and Paxton to go along with Roark, Archer and Ross, I should have plenty of K’s and wins by the end of the week.

This race is going to be tight!  In the end, a lot of my final success or failure will be due to random luck.  I made the best decisions I could, but managers will make many decisions with their lineups and staffs this week, and those decisions could leave me or David high and dry.  I tried to avoid two-start pitchers if I feel like their second start may be changed, and I also tried to avoid hitters who could be rested for the playoffs.