Day: June 12, 2015

Tout Daily Picks for June 12! Who’s Picking Who?

We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 10 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 2 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

Ferdinando DiFino Says

Joe Kelly ($6700–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Since the Red Sox made a change at pitching coach, Joe Kelly has given up more than two earned runs just once in five starts. The strikeouts are a little erratic, but he’ll get a Blue Jays lineup likely without Encarnacion (or with a dinged one) and the price is great for the upside.

Kennys Vargas ($2300–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) Vargas has been solid since his recall and gets to face a lefty tonight in Wandy Rodriguez. In a limited sample size this season, Vargas is hitting .375 and has an .869 OPS.

Scott Swanay Opines

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Was tempted to pick Felix Hernandez based on his match-up with K-prone Astros’ lineup, but opted to spend a bit more and go with the pitcher who’s more likely to get a Win (better offense backing him and facing Odrasimer Despaigne). Also considered Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmermann.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Sure, he’s cooled down after his torrid start, but he’s hitting for a slightly higher average in June than he did in May (.289 vs. .274), and he gets to face Odrasimer Despaigne.  $3,400 seems like a bargain.

Gene McCaffrey’s Picks

David Price ($10,900–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) The best SP by a sliver.
Pablo Sandoval ($2,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) If you like to live dangerously.

Doug Anderson’s Favorites

Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros)  – The King certainly enjoys Safeco as his home ballpark, but he’s got a 1.82 ERA on the road this season. The Astros are tied with the Cubs with 561 strikeouts on the season; 51 more than any other team. Great pitcher? Check. Good matchup for his offense? Check. Opposing team strikes out a ton? Check.
Nelson Cruz  ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) vs. Brett Oberholtzer (LHP)  Cruz has hit 14 of his 18 homers this year on the road.  Cruz is hitting .472 this year against LHP and .480 against LHP on the road. Cruz is facing a left-handed pitcher on the road tonight.  Cruz

has missed a couple games with back spasms, but reportedly sat out Thursday’s game only as a precaution. If he’s in the lineup I’m using him.

Michael Beller’s Thoughts

Danny Salazar (9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) FanDuel makes it awfully hard to build a strong offense around a $12,000 pitcher. All things being equal, Kershaw and Felix are easily the best options on the board. The savings you get by rostering Salazar, however, makes him the pick of the night. The Tigers aren’t necessarily a plus matchup, but Salazar has major strikeout upside regardless of his opponent. Salazar fanned 11 Tigers back in his second start of the year.

Jose Abreu  ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Matt Andriese, tonight’s starter for the Rays, has allowed three homers in 20 2/3 innings this season. Abreu has homered in each of his last two games. Tropicana Field may not be the best park for right-handed power, but this is a great matchup for Abreu. His $3,800 price tag is quite attractive, as well.

Ray Murphy’s Law

Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros)  Last week we had no ace SPs available, this week we are flush with them. My favorite among the aces is Felix Hernandez, due to his matchup. We all know that the Astros are a high-strikeout team. That’s usually balanced by the risk of their power exploding on a given night, but lately that hasn’t been happening: the suddenly-struggling Astros have a team OPS of .630 so far in June. Felix had a blowup two starts ago, but rebounded nicely in his last outing. A double-digit strikeout effort tonight is very much in play.
Nelson Cruz  ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) He has cooled a bit recently, which has finally driven his price out of the stratosphere. Assuming he’s back in the lineup tonight after getting dinged earlier in the week, he’s a great play tonight at $3600, facing shaky left-handed Brett Oberholtzer in Houston.

Jeff Boggis’s Studs and a Prayer

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres)  I’m going with my “studs and prayer” lineup for tonight’s Tout Wars Tout Daily contest on Fan Duel and it all starts with the highest salaried player on Fan Duel tonight. From a season low on May 10th of 5.66 fantasy points, Kershaw has averaged 17.6 fantasy points over his last 5 starts. You also have to look at tonight’s matchup and other available options. I was also looking at King Felix Hernandez, but he faces Houston who ranks 7th in slugging percentage (.407). Kershaw is in pitcher friendly Petco Park at San Diego tonight and the Padres rank 25th in slugging percentage (.375) which was the deal breaker for me with starting Kershaw over Hernandez tonight.

Mike Trout ($5,000–Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels) Trout is a slight discount compared to Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600), Bryce Harper ($5,500), Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200), and Jose Bautista ($5,100). Goldschmidt faces a very tough pitching matchup against Madison Bumgarner. Harper faces a neutral pitching matchup against Mike Fiers. Bautista has a decent matchup against Joe Kelly with a home run, but too much of a small sample size with only 7 at bats. I really wanted to start Stanton in my DFS lineup tonight, but opposing pitcher Kyle Kendrick has pretty much owned Stanton. In 29 at bats, has 1 home run against Kendrick, but has 9 strikeouts and batting .103 against him. Trout is the first player that fits my criteria of being a consistent fantasy points producer in DFS, has a good matchup against an opposing pitcher (Jesse Chavez), is playing at home, and has a decent sample size against the pitcher. In 14 at bats, Trout has 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and is batting .286 versus Jesse Chavez. Nelson Cruz ($3,600) is bargain priced, but with his recent back spasms and out of the lineup the past two days, he may be a game time decision and I can’t take the risk.

 Jake Ciely’s Views

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) It’s tough to slot in a pitcher at $12,000, but you have to find a way with Clayton Kershaw. He’s averaging 20.0 FPPG over his last three starts and has 45 Ks in his last 36.0 IP. On top of that, the Padres are actually pretty weak at home with the seventh lowest wRC+ (91) and second worst wOBA (.290). Just to pile on, they also have a 22.5 K% against lefties. Like I said, you have to find a way.

Paul Greco’s Picks

Clayton Kershaw  ($12,000-Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Clayton Kershaw is the obvious pick this week for money games. Over his last three starts all Kershaw has done is average 20 FanDuel points, nine strikeouts and won all three games. It’s going to make your lineup a little weaker but there are cheap value players that can be had today.
Albert Pujols  ($3,900-Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels) Since June 1st there hasn’t been a hotter hitter in MLB than Albert Pujols who is batting .378 with six homers. Facing Jesse Chavez and the Oakland A’s tonight, Pujols has batting .438 with a homer and four RBI. The price is perfect for Pujols who is averaging 4.65 FanDuel points over his last 10 games.

Lawr Michaels’ Koan

Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,400–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) Ubaldo seems to be going through one of his really solid “Saberhagenmetrics” periods, meaning a year or so’s worth of excellent starts before a year or so’s worth of crappy ones. Although there are some other really fun sleeper starter choices as well (Mike Fiers, eg).

Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,300–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Today there are as many great low end hitting options just as there are a lot of high end pitchers to choose, so the matchups are what matters. And, I am happy to roster Droobs at $2300 when he has a .297-2-4 line against John Danks over 27 at-bats.

Eno Sarris’s Review

Michael Pineda ($9,800–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) There are some great value plays today that are cheaper than Pineda. Chase Anderson and Danny Salazar had my attention, and both are cheaper than Pineda. But both have tough matchups on the bump today. Anderson is up against Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco, and Salazar has David Price in Detroit. Yes, Pineda is on the road, but he’s a great pitcher, and he’s up against Ubaldo Jimenez. I like.

David Ortiz ($2,400–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) vs Drew Hutchison. When David Ortiz costs less than Justin Bour and Garrett Jones, that’s when David Ortiz becomes a value play. He’s facing a righty, and even this year, in a down year, near the end of his career, Ortiz is managing a .277/.383/.508 line that’s 41% better than league average. Drew Hutchison needs his best velocity to be good, and his gas hasn’t always been there for him this year. For $2,400, giddy.

Todd Zola’s Darts

Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) You can throw a dart blind-folded and hit a good option tonight. In this smaller-scale tournament, I don’t feel the need to go out-of-the-box so I’ll use King Felix with some serious whiff upside versus Houston

Mark Trumbo  ($2,900–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) To support a high salary pitcher, I need some explosive mid-to-low salary hitters and I like the spot Trumbo is in against Brett Oberholtzer in Minute Maid Park.

Scott Pianowski’s Picks

Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) If you have the guts to dial up a non-star pitcher, Jeff Locke is the second-highest favorite on the card. We love you, Phillies.

Evan Longoria ($3,100–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) John Danks should have a target on his back, a weak lefty you can stack against. Evan Longoria has been annoyingly-overrated for years, but you like him in the platoon edge.

Charlie Wiegert, the Godfather of Fantasy Sports’ Horse Head

My first thought, based on how my selections have been lately, is the best advise I can give you is to NOT use my selections.  Some kind of wicked curse has been placed on me! But I don’t believe in curses, and the law of averages is on my side, I’m due!

Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) The safe way to go tonight would be to take one of the many elite pitchers going tonight, there’s at five that should earn 15 points.  But I’m going with a long shot.  While he has not been impressive lately, his track record at home and against the Philles is impressive. Locke has a 3.52 ERA at home compared to 8.37 on the road, and has a 1.35 ERA ve the Phillies.  And the Phillies are starting Kevin Correia, who just signed a deal this week.  given the Phillies offense has major league lows of 3.18 runs and 0.59 homers, this give Locke an extra chance for a good performance.

​Troy Tulowitzki ($4,500–Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins) So with the money I save going with Locke, I can get a few better hitters than most teams​ will have going with the studs tonight.  I’m looking at the Colorado vs Miami game to have at least 10 runs, so I’m rostering Tulo, LeMahieu, Ozuna and Realmuto hoping they all have good nights. It’s probably a better roster to use in tournament play, but I’m hoping for the blind squirrel to find the nut tonight!

Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge

Danny Salazar ($9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) Inside Edge has him ranked below Kershaw, Felix and Price, but above Cueto and Bumgarner in tonight’s pitcher-heavy slate, allowing you to stay below five figures.

Jake Elmore ($2,200–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Inside Edge says he’s a good bargain-basement “shortstop” (in actuality, he’s played almost everywhere but this season) if you need salary breathing room elsewhere.

Brian Walton’s Thoughts

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) On the mound, I like Clayton Kershaw at San Diego, but who doesn’t? In nine career starts at Petco Park, the Dodgers’ ace has a 2.22 ERA, 0.988 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. The price is high, but so should be the return.

Xander Bogaerts ($2,500–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) The Red Sox have made a number of questionable personnel decisions in recent years, but signing Xander Bogaerts is not among them. Since May 31, the shortstop is 17-for-40 (.425) with six RBI. Friday night, he draws Drew Hutchison at Fenway, where he is batting .333 on the season. Bogaerts is a nice bargain at $2500.

Al Melchior’s Mind

Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Though his ERA isn’t showing it, Hutchison has come a long way this year, increasing his ground ball rate and doing a good job against left-handed hitters. We’ve seen the fruits of his progress in his last three starts, which have produced a 2.18 ERA, 16 strikeouts, one walk and a .306 opponents’ slugging percentage.
Robinson Chirinos ($2,600–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) UPDATE: Is not in tonight’s lineup!

Paul Sporer’s Puppies

Madison Bumgarner ($10600–Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants)  After a couple days of rough pitching, we’re star-loaded today and several of them are very enticing options, but I prefer Bumgarner. He’s the cheapest of the four $10+ K aces and while he is coming off of a 5 ER outing, he did log 11 Ks in that same game. He has been alright in two outings against ARI, going seven in both, but the Ks have been underwhelming with just 7 in the 14 innings. His 11% Swinging Strike rate matches what he’s done the last two years and he still has a pair of 10+ K outings so there’s no reason to believe he can’t drop a big K game on Arizona. 

Gregory Polanco ($3000–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates)  Polanco has been underwhelming overall, but that’s built into the price. When he does produce, it’s been against righties (.725 OPS, compared to .385 v. LH). He gets Kevin Correia in his 2015 debut. Correia doesn’t have much of a platoon split, but he’s pretty poor against both sides and his performance v. LH has really faltered in the last two years with .806 and .837 OPS totals. Polanco has the power-speed capability that gives him big potential, especially at 3K. 

Phil Hertz’s Salve

Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Drew Hutchison has been pitching better than his surface stats would indicate and has been pitching very well the last month. Toronto’s hot; the Red Sox not so much.

Jose Abreu  ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Is bargain priced, especially considering he’s facing rookie Matt Andriese, who has yet to pitch into the fifth inning in his MLB career.

Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Joe Kelly ($6700–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (5)
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) 5 (16.66)
David Price ($10,900–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) 2 (21)
Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) 4 (-6.67)
Danny Salazar (9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) 3 (10)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,400–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) (12)
Michael Pineda ($9,800–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) (1.33)
Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) 2 (8)
Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) 2 (-2.67)
Madison Bumgarner ($10600–Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants) (14)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Kennys Vargas ($2300–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) (-1)
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) (1.25)
Pablo Sandoval ($2,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (6)
Nelson Cruz  ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) 2 (1.5)
Jose Abreu  ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) 2 (7.5)
Mike Trout ($5,000–Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels) (10)
Albert Pujols  ($3,900-Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels) (2.25)
David Ortiz ($2,400–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (5.5)
Mark Trumbo  ($2,900–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) (-1)
Evan Longoria ($3,100–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) 2 (1.25)
​Troy Tulowitzki ($4,500–Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins) (.25)
Jake Elmore ($2,200–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) (2.5)
Neil Walker ($2,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) 2 (-.25)
Andre Ethier ($2,900–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Dego Padres) (2.5)
Xander Bogaerts ($2,500–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (4.25)
Gregory Polanco ($3000–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) (-1.75)