Month: June 2015

Touts’ Picks for Week 11 of Tout Daily by FanDuel!

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We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 11 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 3 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

Todd Zola Proclaims

Chris Sale ($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) He fanned double digits six times in his last seven outings and facing a squad that whiffs at a 23 percent clip against soutpaws. Chalk, vanilla, call it what you will. No reason to get cute.

Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) I’ll need some lower priced hitters in good spots and it doesn’t get any better than Wong leading off in Citizens Bank Park against fill-in Phillippe Aumont.

 Scott Swanay Picks

Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) – It’s tempting to go with one of the bigger name options for tonight (Sale, deGrom, Gray, Shields), but I’ll save a few shekels here and put it towards a stronger hitting lineup.  Usually, I wouldn’t want a pitcher facing the same team for consecutive starts, but with the Mariners’ offense as anemic and strikeout-prone as it is, I feel it’s worth a shot.

Josh Reddick ($3,400–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) – I like his match-up vs. Matt Shoemaker, and it’s rare to find someone with a favorable match-up who also has both the handedness and home/away splits in his favor.  Chris Coghlan and Billy Burns were the only other two hitters who I felt met all three criteria tonight, but I’ll go with the guy who has the best chance of knocking one out of the park.

Scott Engel Recommneds

Jacob DeGrom ($10,800–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) The Mets are on a two-game losing streak and Jacob deGrom is pitching like a real ace right now, a guy who steps in and gets the team back on track when they need it. He’s been rolling and the Mets have owned the Braves so far this year. He’ll get the W in very effective fashion.

Gerardo Parra ($2,500–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) Gerardo Parra is a nice value at $2,500 to give you exposure to the Brewers lineup at Coors Field. He will also allow you to frontload your lineup elsewhere.

Ray Murphy Suggests

Rubby de la Rosa ($7,000–San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks)  stopped the bleeding in his last start, firing a gem at SF after three straight shaky outings. Facing the RH-heavy Padres tonight at home is a good draw for Rubby. There’s risk here, but the price is right ($7000) if your overall standing in this phase dictates you look at an under-the-radar option.

Carlos Gonzalez ($4000–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) is finally heating up (1.009 OPS in June) after a lousy April/May, and his salary hasn’t fully corrected yet. In a home game against a shaky RHP in Taylor Jungmann, Gonzalez is just as good a play as the $5000+ elite OFs, but comes at a 20% discount.

Jake Ciely Says

Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) Chris Sale is extremely enticing, but it’s hard to build a lineup around an $11,000 pitcher. Enter Carrasco. He has one of the larger projected run differentials today, giving him a great chance for the win. On top of that, the Rays are in the bottom third for wOBA and wRC+ against righties and have the seventh highest K% (21.0) against them. Carrasco has 10 starts with six-plus strikeouts and eight in three of his last four starts.

Charlie Blackmon ($3,900–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) After a weak May where Blackmon only hit .220, he’s cruising along with a .288 AVG in June. As we all know, Blackmon also hits righties much better with a .305 AVG against them this year versus .164 for lefties (career split .292/.264). The Rockies have the highest projected run total today, are at home and face Taylor Jungmann, who has been solid through his first two starts but is far from a shut down pitcher.

Doug Anderson Likes

Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians)  Carrasco has faced a tough early schedule and has been burned by a .342 BABIP Against. The strikeouts are there (10.34 K/9) and the walks aren’t (2.19 BB/9). His 2.84 xFIP is what you need to look at.

Joey Votto ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) Joey Votto is Joey Votto. Dan Haren is what puts this matchup over the top. Haren has given up 13 homers this season in 81 innings. He’s got a 4.23 ERA on the road, and a career ERA of 5.59 at Great American Ballpark. That $4,000 salary is not a huge roadblock either.

The Godfather of Fantasy Sports, Charlie Wiegert, Makes An Offer

Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) a bit of a long shot…he’s been pitching good, shut down the Cardinals in his last start at home and got some K’s.  Milwaukee has been scuffling and starting a rookie at Coors, so a win should happen!

Ben Paulson ($3,100—Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) Colorado hitters against the rookie, with Ben Paulson popping a long ball.  Also keying on some Card lefties at Philly, and Blue Jay’s against the O’s.

Jeff Boggis for Fantasy Baseball Empire

Chris Sale($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) Over his last 7 starts, Sale has averaged 7.5 innings pitched, 11.3 strikeouts, 1.3 earned runs, and 19.9 fantasy points. Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on Friday, but let’s analyze his cost per fantasy point compared to the other top starting pitchers over their past 7 starts: Chris Sale (19.9 FP/$11,000/$552 per fantasy point), Jacob deGrom (16.0 FP/$10,800/$673 per fantasy point), Sonny Gray (14.1 FP/$10,100/$717 per fantasy point), James Shields (13.0 FP/$9,500/$728 per fantasy point), A.J. Burnett (14.2 FP/$9,200/$646 per fantasy point). On a dollars per fantasy point basis, Chris Sale is your best starting pitching investment. I also like that Sale is facing Colby Lewis, who owns an ERA of 4.37 on the season. By rostering Chris Sale, that leaves me with an average of $3,000 for my remaining 8 hitters.

Miguel Cabrera ($5,400–Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees) I really wanted to go with Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200), who leads all hitters this season in home runs with 25, RBIs with 63, faces starting pitcher Mike Leake, who has surrendered 13 home runs on the season. But there is an 80% chance of rain on Friday in Cincinnati and I can’t risk a top salaried batter not playing in my lineup due to weather issues. I also like Bryce Harper ($5,400), but he may be potentially out with a with a mild left hamstring strain that he suffered on Thursday. So I am going with Miguel Cabrera who is tied for 2nd overall this season, averaging 3.7 fantasy points per game. He has a good pitching matchup at New York against Adam Warren who has a 3.78 ERA and has surrendered 8 home runs on the season. 

Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge

Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) Inside Edge rates him behind only Sale and deGrom tonight and you’ll need more than $4K more to buy either of those two.

Giancarlo Stanton ($5200–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) Cheap sleepers are lacking on the Inside Edge board tonight, so I’ll give you an expensive guy who scores a perfect 100 on the Matchup Rating. The fact that he’s facing righty Mike Leake tonight might camouflage him as a must-play.

Brian Walton Wants

Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) has never pitched in Seattle. In fact, the right-hander is making just his seventh career MLB start Friday night. But when the rookie has pitched, he has been sharp, with an even 2.00 ERA and better than a strikeout per inning. The 21-year-old did toss five scoreless frames against Seattle at home last time out and the Mariners’ offense has been anything but sharp this season. That makes this a decent matchup for anyone looking to save on pitching.

Carlos Beltran ($2,300–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) I watched the late-career version of Carlos Beltran closely for two years at St. Louis. While his streaky stretches are fewer and farther between than in his heyday, the 38-year-old is still capable of doing damage. Beltran is 4-for-10 with a double and a home run in his last three games and is a nice buy at $2300.

Paul Sporer’s Spiel

Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) The biggest factor with prospects Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela coming up isn’t their fantasy impact with the bat, it’s their glove work that will help the starting rotation. Carrasco might be taking the biggest brunt of the infield defensive deficiencies this year with a .342 BABIP so far. His skills are still saying that last year’s 2.55 ERA was legitimate and so this year’s 4.38 is way out of line. Tonight is first start with Lindor behind him. 

Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) Wong has been an All-Star caliber 2B against right-handers with a .297/.356/.486 line with six homers in 194 PA. The opposing starting pitcher, Phillippe Aumont, has allowed a 1.144 OPS to lefties in 66 career PA at the major league level. He had a 206-point split favoring lefties (.760 OPS) in 65 IP in Triple-A this year.

Andrea LaMont’s Choices

Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) may be pitching way above his head at the moment, but that would be the beauty of this Daily League play, right? I love that he is pitching at home against the Brewers, who are 27th in runs scored while on the road, and dead last in walks.

Manny Machado ($3,800–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) is hitting like crazy lately, with four home runs and eight RBI in the past seven days. He goes to the hitter friendly Rogers Center to face Marco Estrada, who he homered against just last month. (May 11)

Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)

Chris Sale ($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) 3 (22)
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) 3 (7.33)
Jacob DeGrom ($10,800–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) 2 (8.33)
Rubby de la Rosa ($7,000–San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks) (16)
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (3)
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) 3 (8.66)
Roenis Elias ($7,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) (19)

Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)

Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) 2 (6)
Josh Reddick ($3,400–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) (-1.25)
Gerardo Parra ($2,500–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (3.25)
Carlos Gonzalez ($4000–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (-1)
Charlie Blackmon ($3,900–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (8.5)
Chris Davis ($3,400–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) (1)
Joey Votto ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) (2.5)
Manny Machado ($3,800–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) 3 (6.5)
Ben Paulson ($3,100—Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (7.75)
Miguel Cabrera ($5,400–Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees) (1.5)
Stephen Vogt ($3,300–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) (11.5)
Carlos Beltran ($2,300–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) (.25)

Tout Wars DFS Round Table: Surprises

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ToutDaily has introduced many of the Tout Warriors to DFS whole providing all of us a chance to match wits with each other. As a means to share some of our thoughts about DFS, its strategies and its place in the industry, each week we’ll be answering a question, to be posted here every Thursday evening. This week’s question posed to the Touts is:

What has surprised you the most since you’ve started participating in the Friday FanDuel Tout Daily contest?

Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa

It’s relatively easy to find a pitcher with a favorable match-up and a good chance of earning a Win, but seemingly much harder (judging by volatility in week-to-week results) to find hitters who will do well (even within the relatively small subset of Hitters who appear to have extremely favorable match-ups).

Patrick Davitt, www.baseballhq.com, @patrickdavitt

Speaking as someone who had Felix Hernandez for his one-out, eight-run performance at Houston, I’d have to say how much depends on the seemingly random unpredictability of the pitching.

Phil Hertz, www.baseballhq.com, @prhz50

At first glance, my reaction was, “Oh, I can do this.”  However, after over a half-dozen entries, I’ve only had one really good one — and I’m now spending more and more time checking match-ups, weather, and other things I ignored at first.he seemingly random unpredictability of the pitching.

Tim McCullough, www.rotoexperts.com, @Tim_RotoExperts

Prior to joining the Tout Daily contest, I really didn’t play daily fantasy baseball. I’m surprised at how little I enjoy the daily game. Fantasy baseball has never been about winning money for me. The draft preparation, executing an effective draft, in-season waiver and roster management, and making trades throughout the season is what I really enjoy. I’d much rather build a team that wins after six months of strategy and tweaking than build a team with the expectation of one good night of production.

Craig Mish, www.craigmish.com, @craigmish

Two things have surprised me the most. First, that so many of us have fluctuated from bottom to top so frequently. Second, I find myself spending more time refreshing and checking the standings than actual time I spend setting my lineup. Is that bad? Is there a 12 step Tout Daily rehab program when this is over? Please advise.

Brian Walton, www.mastersball.com @B_Walton

What has surprised me the most is the wide swing in weekly scores. Though it is obvious that in each contest, everyone is starting over, there is clearly no halo effect. Despite following the same basic process in roster setting, my results have varied dramatically by week. For example, on May 22, I hit my low-water point, finishing 33rd of 42. The next week, I came in first. I wish I could point to some specific change I made to improve, but I have no explanation.

Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte

I knew one thing going in: I knew nothing about playing Daily Fantasy Baseball. But I wasn’t worried, because I also knew the game was subject to a huge variance. As someone who has projected baseball performance for more than 20 years professionally, published ROS updates weekly in the early aughts on MLB.com, and has been around a statistical paradox or two, I thought I would occasionally win simply because I got lucky. In Tout Daily, however, not yet. The sample is still small, just 10 weeks, but as I learn more about the game and fail even worse, I’m thinking it isn’t DFS, it’s me.

Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323

Nothing has surprised me. The competition figured to be tough and it is. I consistently make good picks and a few other people make them and one more. The touts are better players than the public, which I know because several of my identical teams have cashed in tournaments but not in the Tout Challenge. This contest consistently makes better picks, the top players that night are almost always more widely owned, sometimes a lot more. This is especially noteworthy on Fridays when all teams are playing, which adds choices and don’t forget randomness.

Lenny Melnick, www.rotoexperts.com, @LennyMelnick

The format of carrying over each week’s points to determine a monthly winner has really been a unique innovation to DFS

Competing for 1 day may be fine, but having standings, automatically creates a new level of competition and excitement

Good work TOUT people!

Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels

I have mostly found it sort grounding in DFS that it remains as mysterious and fickle as its on-field counterpart.

No sure things (King Felix goes .3 and is tagged for 8? Jace Peterson bags 15 points to Stanton’s 0 thanks to a walk?

It just reminds me there is indeed some theoretical comfort in a body of stats, but in a microcosm the numbers mean very little as often as not.

Michael Beller, www.SI.com, @MBeller

I’m not surprised by it any longer, but early on I was intrigued to see that my lineups built around a star pitcher generally performed better than those that invested heavily in hitting. It might be counterintuitive to full-season fantasy games, but it makes sense in a daily format. Every pitcher in the league is going to have his share of bad outings, and, of course, they’re more susceptible to injury, but it’s a whole lot easier to predict pitcher performance when you know the hurler in question is healthy and has a beneficial matchup. Hitters with even the best matchups are going to fall flat from time to time. Just earlier this week Kris Bryant didn’t get a meaningful hit in the Cubs’ 17-0 drubbing of the Indians until outfielder David Murphy was on the mound. Since about the middle of April, I’ve put my trust in pitching, and it has generally worked out for the better.

Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis

For me, it has been the extra level of analysis and strategy involved in daily fantasy games. It’s not simply selecting names to fit the salary cap. Every roster move counts as we are not only competing each Friday night, but also for finishing in the top 3 overall in the 4 week competition for a ticket into the finals. I’ve had the opportunity to try different strategies such as studs and duds, or going all in on either starting pitching or hitters. Some strategies work better for me than others. I also do a deeper analysis on weather, hitter versus pitcher stats, and hitters that have been hot over the last 7 days. Last but not least, I set my initial team, but always follow up at least 30 minutes before the contest closes to ensure that my players are actually in the starting lineup, especially for players with lower salaries that may not be starting that day.

Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports

Experts, there are no experts in DFS.  Yes some seem to do better than others, but on any given day anyone can win, and anyone can have an awful day.  There does not seem to be any secret sauce (As Ron Shandler stated), which makes the game really interesting.  Picking the right pitcher, one who will get at least 15 points, is imperative.  I do not think we have had a daily winner who has not had a pitcher earn at least 15 points.  Keep trying should be the advice.  There’s really no reason that today won’t be the day you win!

Scott Engel, www.rotoexperts.com, @scotteRotoEx

Nothing has really surprised me. What has been special to watch, though, is how well Lenny Melnick has done at times. A legendary seasonal player and analyst is paving the path for hardcore seasonal players to embrace DFS rather than shun it.

Jake Ciely, www.rotoexperts.com, @allinkid

It’s going to sound conceited, but let me explain. Not much has surprised me, but it has surprised me how much everyone tends to lean on high-priced pitching. I’ve been doing a study cataloging similar lineups using the top tier of expensive pitchers versus the second and third tier guys. I use the savings to invest in better bats, and it’s performing significantly better. I’ve seen about an 11-12 percent boost on average by avoiding the extremely expensive pitchers, which can make the difference between in cashing out on FanDuel. I assumed that many of the Touts would have a similar theory, even though many are just getting into the daily game. I think the allure of “safety” at pitcher is more perception than reality, and I expect more Touts, and DFS players in general, to start moving away from the extremely expensive pitchers to build better performing lineups.

Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola

I know this sounds a bit self-centered, but I’m surprised at how poorly my performance has been in ToutDaily, at least relative to my results outside of the FanDuel contest. Wise Guy Gene correctly pointed out we have some very sharp players here but I also wonder if I’m overthinking things, trying to get too cute with my lineup since it’s a hybrid format between trying to win the week and qualifying for one of the 15 spots in the Tout Daily finals.

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FanDuel #ToutChallenge Wrap-up

Tuesday was one of the highest scoring nights of the season as kramerb led the pack with an impressive 79.75 points. The cutoff to cash was a rather high 41 points.

Jake Ciely was the only Tout to finish in the top-ten, checking in at fifth. Eleven Touts cashed:

Jake Ciely
Ray Murphy
Scott Swanay
Eno Sarris
Al Melchior
Gene McCaffrey
Lenny Melnick
Steve Gardner
Michael Beller
Jeff Boggis
Charlie Wiegert

Trevor Bauer (15% ownership) was on three of the top five finishers including leader kramerb. Top Tout Jake Ciely used Garrett Richards (23%) with Chris Tillman (7%) being the other pitcher used in the top five.

With so many MLB teams scoring so many runs, it was going to take a stack or two to come out on top and kramerb nailed it with some exposure to both the Pirates and Orioles then filled in the blanks with Albert Pujols. Jake focused on the same teams except he didn’t use Manny Machado or Francisco Cervilli, two keys to kramerb’s top scoring unit, shown below:

kramerb

It’s Tuesday which means another #ToutChallenge

Steve Moyer was the top Tout in last week’s #ToutChallenge on FanDuel. Nine other Touts finished in the money which left plenty of opportunity for you to pad your bankroll.

Are you up for this week’s #ToutChallenge?

For just $2 you can match wits and talk trash with your favorite Tout Warrior. Finish in the top 45 of the 100-player field and you double your money and ooze with pride.

Click HERE to join.

ToutChallenge

 

Tout Wars FAAB Action of June 15

Big bids in each league, but for different players. Read Mastersball.com’s analysis here.

Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Gianella, first place in Tout NL, has his analysis of the week’s Tout AL and NL moves. It’s free!

Price is Right for Rick Wolf in Tout Daily Week 10!

rickwolfOn a night when many of baseball’s top hurlers took the mound, David Price led Rick Wolf’s Tout Daily at FanDuel squad to victory. On a night of weak scoring, Wolf’s offense was paced by Jose Abreu, Jacob Realmuto and Martin Prado, for a total 48.75 points.

Ron Shandler finished second, behind the arm off Jaime Garcia, and big contributions from Brian Dozier, Josh Reddick and Joey Butler.

Jeff Boggis led the 34 percent of Tout owners who ponied up for Clayton Kershaw, and finished third with big nights from Mike Trout’s and Pablo Sandoval’s bats.

Only two Touts picked David Price, who finished with 21 points on the night. The second, after Wolf, was Lenny Melnick, who finished fourth.

But perhaps the big story of the night were the 21 percent of owners who built their teams around Felix Hernandez, who ignominiously allowed eight runs while getting just one out, scoring -6.67 points. Fortunately for all, the one out was a strikeout. Of the nine teams that took King Felix, Gene McCaffrey and Craig Mish tied for best score, each ending up with 11.58 points.

After two weeks in Phase 3, week one winner Seth Trachtman remains in first despite not finishing in the money this week, with Derek VanRiper, who finished in the money both weeks, just behind him. For the leaderboard, click here.

For more about Tout Daily, click here.

Come play a daily game with the Touts on Tuesday night’s Tout Challenge!

This week’s winner:

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Tout Daily Picks for June 12! Who’s Picking Who?

We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 10 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 2 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

Ferdinando DiFino Says

Joe Kelly ($6700–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Since the Red Sox made a change at pitching coach, Joe Kelly has given up more than two earned runs just once in five starts. The strikeouts are a little erratic, but he’ll get a Blue Jays lineup likely without Encarnacion (or with a dinged one) and the price is great for the upside.

Kennys Vargas ($2300–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) Vargas has been solid since his recall and gets to face a lefty tonight in Wandy Rodriguez. In a limited sample size this season, Vargas is hitting .375 and has an .869 OPS.

Scott Swanay Opines

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Was tempted to pick Felix Hernandez based on his match-up with K-prone Astros’ lineup, but opted to spend a bit more and go with the pitcher who’s more likely to get a Win (better offense backing him and facing Odrasimer Despaigne). Also considered Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmermann.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Sure, he’s cooled down after his torrid start, but he’s hitting for a slightly higher average in June than he did in May (.289 vs. .274), and he gets to face Odrasimer Despaigne.  $3,400 seems like a bargain.

Gene McCaffrey’s Picks

David Price ($10,900–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) The best SP by a sliver.
Pablo Sandoval ($2,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) If you like to live dangerously.

Doug Anderson’s Favorites

Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros)  – The King certainly enjoys Safeco as his home ballpark, but he’s got a 1.82 ERA on the road this season. The Astros are tied with the Cubs with 561 strikeouts on the season; 51 more than any other team. Great pitcher? Check. Good matchup for his offense? Check. Opposing team strikes out a ton? Check.
Nelson Cruz  ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) vs. Brett Oberholtzer (LHP)  Cruz has hit 14 of his 18 homers this year on the road.  Cruz is hitting .472 this year against LHP and .480 against LHP on the road. Cruz is facing a left-handed pitcher on the road tonight.  Cruz

has missed a couple games with back spasms, but reportedly sat out Thursday’s game only as a precaution. If he’s in the lineup I’m using him.

Michael Beller’s Thoughts

Danny Salazar (9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) FanDuel makes it awfully hard to build a strong offense around a $12,000 pitcher. All things being equal, Kershaw and Felix are easily the best options on the board. The savings you get by rostering Salazar, however, makes him the pick of the night. The Tigers aren’t necessarily a plus matchup, but Salazar has major strikeout upside regardless of his opponent. Salazar fanned 11 Tigers back in his second start of the year.

Jose Abreu  ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Matt Andriese, tonight’s starter for the Rays, has allowed three homers in 20 2/3 innings this season. Abreu has homered in each of his last two games. Tropicana Field may not be the best park for right-handed power, but this is a great matchup for Abreu. His $3,800 price tag is quite attractive, as well.

Ray Murphy’s Law

Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros)  Last week we had no ace SPs available, this week we are flush with them. My favorite among the aces is Felix Hernandez, due to his matchup. We all know that the Astros are a high-strikeout team. That’s usually balanced by the risk of their power exploding on a given night, but lately that hasn’t been happening: the suddenly-struggling Astros have a team OPS of .630 so far in June. Felix had a blowup two starts ago, but rebounded nicely in his last outing. A double-digit strikeout effort tonight is very much in play.
Nelson Cruz  ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) He has cooled a bit recently, which has finally driven his price out of the stratosphere. Assuming he’s back in the lineup tonight after getting dinged earlier in the week, he’s a great play tonight at $3600, facing shaky left-handed Brett Oberholtzer in Houston.

Jeff Boggis’s Studs and a Prayer

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres)  I’m going with my “studs and prayer” lineup for tonight’s Tout Wars Tout Daily contest on Fan Duel and it all starts with the highest salaried player on Fan Duel tonight. From a season low on May 10th of 5.66 fantasy points, Kershaw has averaged 17.6 fantasy points over his last 5 starts. You also have to look at tonight’s matchup and other available options. I was also looking at King Felix Hernandez, but he faces Houston who ranks 7th in slugging percentage (.407). Kershaw is in pitcher friendly Petco Park at San Diego tonight and the Padres rank 25th in slugging percentage (.375) which was the deal breaker for me with starting Kershaw over Hernandez tonight.

Mike Trout ($5,000–Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels) Trout is a slight discount compared to Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600), Bryce Harper ($5,500), Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200), and Jose Bautista ($5,100). Goldschmidt faces a very tough pitching matchup against Madison Bumgarner. Harper faces a neutral pitching matchup against Mike Fiers. Bautista has a decent matchup against Joe Kelly with a home run, but too much of a small sample size with only 7 at bats. I really wanted to start Stanton in my DFS lineup tonight, but opposing pitcher Kyle Kendrick has pretty much owned Stanton. In 29 at bats, has 1 home run against Kendrick, but has 9 strikeouts and batting .103 against him. Trout is the first player that fits my criteria of being a consistent fantasy points producer in DFS, has a good matchup against an opposing pitcher (Jesse Chavez), is playing at home, and has a decent sample size against the pitcher. In 14 at bats, Trout has 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and is batting .286 versus Jesse Chavez. Nelson Cruz ($3,600) is bargain priced, but with his recent back spasms and out of the lineup the past two days, he may be a game time decision and I can’t take the risk.

 Jake Ciely’s Views

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) It’s tough to slot in a pitcher at $12,000, but you have to find a way with Clayton Kershaw. He’s averaging 20.0 FPPG over his last three starts and has 45 Ks in his last 36.0 IP. On top of that, the Padres are actually pretty weak at home with the seventh lowest wRC+ (91) and second worst wOBA (.290). Just to pile on, they also have a 22.5 K% against lefties. Like I said, you have to find a way.

Paul Greco’s Picks

Clayton Kershaw  ($12,000-Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Clayton Kershaw is the obvious pick this week for money games. Over his last three starts all Kershaw has done is average 20 FanDuel points, nine strikeouts and won all three games. It’s going to make your lineup a little weaker but there are cheap value players that can be had today.
Albert Pujols  ($3,900-Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels) Since June 1st there hasn’t been a hotter hitter in MLB than Albert Pujols who is batting .378 with six homers. Facing Jesse Chavez and the Oakland A’s tonight, Pujols has batting .438 with a homer and four RBI. The price is perfect for Pujols who is averaging 4.65 FanDuel points over his last 10 games.

Lawr Michaels’ Koan

Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,400–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) Ubaldo seems to be going through one of his really solid “Saberhagenmetrics” periods, meaning a year or so’s worth of excellent starts before a year or so’s worth of crappy ones. Although there are some other really fun sleeper starter choices as well (Mike Fiers, eg).

Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,300–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Today there are as many great low end hitting options just as there are a lot of high end pitchers to choose, so the matchups are what matters. And, I am happy to roster Droobs at $2300 when he has a .297-2-4 line against John Danks over 27 at-bats.

Eno Sarris’s Review

Michael Pineda ($9,800–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) There are some great value plays today that are cheaper than Pineda. Chase Anderson and Danny Salazar had my attention, and both are cheaper than Pineda. But both have tough matchups on the bump today. Anderson is up against Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco, and Salazar has David Price in Detroit. Yes, Pineda is on the road, but he’s a great pitcher, and he’s up against Ubaldo Jimenez. I like.

David Ortiz ($2,400–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) vs Drew Hutchison. When David Ortiz costs less than Justin Bour and Garrett Jones, that’s when David Ortiz becomes a value play. He’s facing a righty, and even this year, in a down year, near the end of his career, Ortiz is managing a .277/.383/.508 line that’s 41% better than league average. Drew Hutchison needs his best velocity to be good, and his gas hasn’t always been there for him this year. For $2,400, giddy.

Todd Zola’s Darts

Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) You can throw a dart blind-folded and hit a good option tonight. In this smaller-scale tournament, I don’t feel the need to go out-of-the-box so I’ll use King Felix with some serious whiff upside versus Houston

Mark Trumbo  ($2,900–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) To support a high salary pitcher, I need some explosive mid-to-low salary hitters and I like the spot Trumbo is in against Brett Oberholtzer in Minute Maid Park.

Scott Pianowski’s Picks

Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) If you have the guts to dial up a non-star pitcher, Jeff Locke is the second-highest favorite on the card. We love you, Phillies.

Evan Longoria ($3,100–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) John Danks should have a target on his back, a weak lefty you can stack against. Evan Longoria has been annoyingly-overrated for years, but you like him in the platoon edge.

Charlie Wiegert, the Godfather of Fantasy Sports’ Horse Head

My first thought, based on how my selections have been lately, is the best advise I can give you is to NOT use my selections.  Some kind of wicked curse has been placed on me! But I don’t believe in curses, and the law of averages is on my side, I’m due!

Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) The safe way to go tonight would be to take one of the many elite pitchers going tonight, there’s at five that should earn 15 points.  But I’m going with a long shot.  While he has not been impressive lately, his track record at home and against the Philles is impressive. Locke has a 3.52 ERA at home compared to 8.37 on the road, and has a 1.35 ERA ve the Phillies.  And the Phillies are starting Kevin Correia, who just signed a deal this week.  given the Phillies offense has major league lows of 3.18 runs and 0.59 homers, this give Locke an extra chance for a good performance.

​Troy Tulowitzki ($4,500–Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins) So with the money I save going with Locke, I can get a few better hitters than most teams​ will have going with the studs tonight.  I’m looking at the Colorado vs Miami game to have at least 10 runs, so I’m rostering Tulo, LeMahieu, Ozuna and Realmuto hoping they all have good nights. It’s probably a better roster to use in tournament play, but I’m hoping for the blind squirrel to find the nut tonight!

Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge

Danny Salazar ($9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) Inside Edge has him ranked below Kershaw, Felix and Price, but above Cueto and Bumgarner in tonight’s pitcher-heavy slate, allowing you to stay below five figures.

Jake Elmore ($2,200–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Inside Edge says he’s a good bargain-basement “shortstop” (in actuality, he’s played almost everywhere but this season) if you need salary breathing room elsewhere.

Brian Walton’s Thoughts

Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) On the mound, I like Clayton Kershaw at San Diego, but who doesn’t? In nine career starts at Petco Park, the Dodgers’ ace has a 2.22 ERA, 0.988 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. The price is high, but so should be the return.

Xander Bogaerts ($2,500–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) The Red Sox have made a number of questionable personnel decisions in recent years, but signing Xander Bogaerts is not among them. Since May 31, the shortstop is 17-for-40 (.425) with six RBI. Friday night, he draws Drew Hutchison at Fenway, where he is batting .333 on the season. Bogaerts is a nice bargain at $2500.

Al Melchior’s Mind

Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Though his ERA isn’t showing it, Hutchison has come a long way this year, increasing his ground ball rate and doing a good job against left-handed hitters. We’ve seen the fruits of his progress in his last three starts, which have produced a 2.18 ERA, 16 strikeouts, one walk and a .306 opponents’ slugging percentage.
Robinson Chirinos ($2,600–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) UPDATE: Is not in tonight’s lineup!

Paul Sporer’s Puppies

Madison Bumgarner ($10600–Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants)  After a couple days of rough pitching, we’re star-loaded today and several of them are very enticing options, but I prefer Bumgarner. He’s the cheapest of the four $10+ K aces and while he is coming off of a 5 ER outing, he did log 11 Ks in that same game. He has been alright in two outings against ARI, going seven in both, but the Ks have been underwhelming with just 7 in the 14 innings. His 11% Swinging Strike rate matches what he’s done the last two years and he still has a pair of 10+ K outings so there’s no reason to believe he can’t drop a big K game on Arizona. 

Gregory Polanco ($3000–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates)  Polanco has been underwhelming overall, but that’s built into the price. When he does produce, it’s been against righties (.725 OPS, compared to .385 v. LH). He gets Kevin Correia in his 2015 debut. Correia doesn’t have much of a platoon split, but he’s pretty poor against both sides and his performance v. LH has really faltered in the last two years with .806 and .837 OPS totals. Polanco has the power-speed capability that gives him big potential, especially at 3K. 

Phil Hertz’s Salve

Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Drew Hutchison has been pitching better than his surface stats would indicate and has been pitching very well the last month. Toronto’s hot; the Red Sox not so much.

Jose Abreu  ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Is bargain priced, especially considering he’s facing rookie Matt Andriese, who has yet to pitch into the fifth inning in his MLB career.

Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Joe Kelly ($6700–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (5)
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) 5 (16.66)
David Price ($10,900–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) 2 (21)
Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) 4 (-6.67)
Danny Salazar (9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) 3 (10)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,400–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) (12)
Michael Pineda ($9,800–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) (1.33)
Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) 2 (8)
Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) 2 (-2.67)
Madison Bumgarner ($10600–Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants) (14)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Kennys Vargas ($2300–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) (-1)
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) (1.25)
Pablo Sandoval ($2,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (6)
Nelson Cruz  ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) 2 (1.5)
Jose Abreu  ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) 2 (7.5)
Mike Trout ($5,000–Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels) (10)
Albert Pujols  ($3,900-Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels) (2.25)
David Ortiz ($2,400–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (5.5)
Mark Trumbo  ($2,900–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) (-1)
Evan Longoria ($3,100–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) 2 (1.25)
​Troy Tulowitzki ($4,500–Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins) (.25)
Jake Elmore ($2,200–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) (2.5)
Neil Walker ($2,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) 2 (-.25)
Andre Ethier ($2,900–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Dego Padres) (2.5)
Xander Bogaerts ($2,500–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (4.25)
Gregory Polanco ($3000–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) (-1.75)

Three Top Steve Moyer In Tuesday Tout Challenge at FanDuel!

mpoole rode to #toutchallenge victory behind the booming bat of Joey Votto, a Carlos Rodon win and nice contributions from Carlos Correa and Peter Bourjos.

brocnessmonster, in second place, also rostered Joey Votto, and got a good game from Anibel Sanchez, with big contributions from Yan Gomes and Todd Frazier.

You’ll find Votto on third place finisher cwalinski’s team as well, along with Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Correa and Cory Kluber, who put up nine points despite losing his game.

The Top Tout was Steve Moyer, another Votto owner, who got almost nothing from his pitcher, Mike Foltynewicz, but plenty of points from Giancarlo Stanton, Yan Gomes and Jhonny Peralta.

The Top 10 Touts

Steve Moyer
Eno Sarris
Adam Ronis
Jeff Boggis
Gene McCaffrey
Jake Ciely
Todd Zola
Doug Anderson
Scott Pianowski
Michael Beller

mpoole’s winning roster:

Screenshot 2015-06-10 10.22.25