This week we’re going to follow-up on last week’s question. By means of reminder, Tout Daily is 20 weeks long, divided into five periods of four weeks. Each week is a mini-tournament with a modest payout but the big carrot is a ticket into the one-day Tout Daily Championship with a $1000 grand prize. The top-three finishers in each period will get an entry into the finals. Each Tout is allowed to earn two tickets. With that in mind, here’s this week’s question:
IT’S THE FIRST WEEK OF THE FOURTH PHASE OF TOUT DAILY. WE’VE ALL GONE THROUGH ONE FULL FOUR-WEEK PERIOD, MOST OF US ALL THREE. WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DO YOU PLAN ON DOING DIFFERENTLY WITH YOUR LINEUP THIS WEEK AS COMPARED TO OTHER PERIOD-OPENING WEEKS?
Craig Mish, www.craigmish.com, @CraigMish: Friday night pitching has not been my strong suit so I am determined to pick the right starter Friday Night. I also see a ton of value in a few of the 2500 and under players lately it could be a night to go big on an ace.
Doug Anderson, www.fantasysportsnetwork.com, @rotodaddy: While still using platoon splits to hopefully gain value, I think I’ll start playing a few more “mini” stacks to try and create a little more upside in my hitters.
Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323: Nothing different, I’m going to try to get the most points. I’m going to look for the best players tonight and the best pricestonight and see where that takes me. Don’t you all just KNOW that one night you will pick the perfect team? I’ve been close but haven’t had that one more late home run. I thought I was gonna get it last night from Mike Zunino. I saw the delusion and knew it for delusion and expected it anyway. I need help.
Jeff Erickson, www.rotowire.com, @Jeff_Erickson: Because I lucked into one of the seats for the final in the first month, I have the freedom to try out new strategies if I see an angle that might help separate me from the pack. Maybe I’ll focus on finding lesser-owned yet still attractive options. Or maybe I’ll just simplify it and not get too clever. I’ve whiffed the last couple of months, so whatever I’ve been doing lately, it’s time to do something different.
Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa: I’ll adjust my strategy somewhat based on the results of the first three 4-week phases. The cut-offs for the top three spots have been 166, 152, and 160 points in the three respective phases, so I figure it will take an average of roughly 40 points over the four weeks to get a top-three spot in the next phase. I’ll look for a starting pitcher that I think can get me at least 13 points without getting a win (e.g. – 7 IP, 8 K, 2 ER), then look for a collection of 8 hitters that I think can average 3.5 points (the key seems to be having three hitters score in the 5-10 point range). I’ll continue to look for favorable match-ups for my hitters, but based on a small sample I’ve looked at, the idea of stacking hitters against a specific pitcher appears to be overrated.
Tim McCullough, www.rotoexperts.com, @Tim_RotoExperts: My experience with this from week to week has been that I either hit the pitching right but get the hitting wrong, or I get the hitting right but miss on the pitching. In general, I do better with the pitching overall, so my goal this week is to spend a bit more time researching my hitting to see if I can’t get this thing firing on all cylinders.
Phil Hertz, www.baseballhq.com, @prhz50: Having had a number of weeks screwed up by a bad pitching performance, I’m going to spend a little extra time — and probably budget — on who I use as my pitcher.
Michael Beller, www.SI.com, @MBeller: I locked up a spot in the final by winning Phase 3, so I feel like I’m playing with house money, even more so, at this point. Still, I’m not going to change up my strategy. I’ve now cashed in six of the 12 Friday Tout Daily contests, including one win and two more top-five finishes. What I’ve been doing works, so I don’t plan to change it. For me, it all starts with my pitcher. That doesn’t mean I’m automatically going with one of the two or three most expensive pitchers on the board, but I’m not reaching into the depths, either. After settling on my hurler, only then do I turn to offense. It’s just much easier to correctly predict daily pitcher than hitter performance.
Patrick Davitt, www.baseballhq.com, @patrickdavitt: Based on my success so far, I’m going to buy a blind monkey and have him pitch darts at a player list.
Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis: I was fortunate enough last week to claim a ticket to the FanDuel final on August 28th by finishing 3rd in phase 3 with a .25 of a point margin over Derek Van Riper. I am personally pulling for Derek to claim a ticket in one of the remaining phases of our contest as the .25 of a point victory for me over Derek came down to a single out by a single hitter over the course of four weeks. I did a lot of scoreboard watching late last Friday night and even woke up at 4 AM to calculate everyone’s final scores on our Google Docs site to ensure that I had claimed 3rd place. Now that I have a ticket into the finals, my plan for this phase is to relax, not to stress out over the results, and most importantly, continue to use the game plan that was very successful for me last phase. My strategy of rostering a top 5 pitcher and building a roster of hitters with the remaining salary has worked best for me on FanDuel. Another lessons learned for me is that a higher salaried player does not always result in more fantasy points. Last week, my final roster spot that I struggled with the most was between Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion in the first base slot. Rizzo was listed at $4,400 and Encarnacion was listed at $3,900. Over the past two weeks, Rizzo has outperformed Encarnacion and their salaries reflected their recent production. But I really liked the pitching matchup for Encarnacion and had a feeling that he would have a great night, but I ended up going with Rizzo. I was watching the Toronto game live and saw Encarnacion hit a grand slam. My remote almost went through the television screen as I was kicking myself for not going with my instincts on this roster decision. Encarnacion ended up with a single, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, 2 runs scored, and 2 outs, which equaled 15.5 fantasy points on FanDuel. Rizzo, who costed me an additional $500 over Encarnacion went 0-4 and 1 hit by pitch for a total of 0 points. Ironically, had Rizzo gone 0-5, I would have not finished in 3rd place in phase 3. One last strategy that I am contemplating is that when I roster a lowered priced player that is somewhere around the minimum $2,200 salary that I roster players from the earlier games as opposed to the late games. The strategy here is that once our lineups lock at 7:05 PM ET, I am at the mercy of the team manager’s lineup for that night. Last week, I rostered Angel Pagan who is an outfielder for the San Francisco Giants. The game at home in San Francisco against Colorado and Pagan was owned in 4.7% of FanDuel league contests. Pagan ended up not playing at all that night, resulting in 0 fantasy points. Each player represents 1 out of 9 roster slots, or 11.1% of your team, and you can’t afford to have players in your starting lineup that are not contributing due to getting the night off or out of the lineup for that evening. By rostering a lower priced player that is not playing on the West Coast that night, I will know for certain if that player is going to be in the starting lineup in advance of the start of the contest. Good luck to everyone this contest phase, especially to Derek Van Riper.
Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports: After weeks of frustration, I managed a 4th place finish last Friday. The main reason, Mad Max. Finding one of the top pitchers seems imperative to doing well. He doesn’t have to be the most expensive pitcher, but the ones with the high salaries are usually the most dependable. So I’ll be looking for the top pitcher of the day, the guy that will pitch at least 7 innings and have double digit strike outs, and hopefully get a win. The tough part is finding the value plays that can get me at least 32 points on offense, that’s 4 per player.
Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte: I’ve wobbled between trying to get the most excellent pitcher with a good matchup, no matter the price, and a cheaper excellent pitcher with a good matchup and better hitters. Until this past Tuesday my point totals have been equally weak, except when my pitcher scored big. So, I’m going to start with the biggest strikeout starter I can find, and then load up hitters facing weak pitchers at good prices. This isn’t exactly different, but I hope to do it better.
Lenny Melnick, www.rotoexperts.com, @LennyMelnick: Going to rely more on what I recommend on my Daily Podcast That is, less relying on numbers alone and more relying more on my Baseball Judgement based on recent trends AND Numbers history.
Jake Ciely, www.rotoexperts.com, @allinkid: Not going to change a thing. I’m fifth overall for the year, but somehow, I have missed on a ticket all three periods… two by a hair. I’m going to keep working my current plan. It’s led to consistently good lineups, and the two times I went contrarian to mix things up actually resulted in my lowest scores of the year. And by using my same strategy, that means avoiding extremely high priced pitchers, as it hampers your ability to build stability with your hitters.
Ray Murphy, www.baseballhq.com, @RayHQ: Not planning anything unusual. We’ve established that you need about 160 points over four weeks to earn a finals ticket. I might stack a little less here in week 1, play it more like a cash game with the intent of hitting that 40-50 point mark and taking less risk in chasing the 70+ point night. But that statement assumes a level of precision in lineup construction that doesn’t really exist. Basically, I’ll just be putting forth a team I like, but it probably won’t be a go-for-it-all stack-heavy/cheap pitcher sort of lineup.
Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels: Well, I am obviously going to try and make the best pitching play I can this first cycle, and then hope i hit it on a couple of hitters to at least stay in the middle of the pack at worst. with a little luck and a Jace Peterson-type big day that could be top tier and then it is more playing the safer bets. The further back, the bigger the crapshoot, I suppose.
Nando DiFino, www.rotoexperts.com, @nandodifino: I’m just going to keep on keepin’ on. I’m learning every day, putting things together, experimenting with different stats and theories. I’m close to breaking through, Todd! It’s going to happen! Swing for the seats and go for first!
Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola: I’m going to do what I do best and that’s overthink things. Actually, my plan is similar to Ray’s. My goal is a ticket to the finals and a chance at the $1000 grand prize. I think the pathway there is a conservative cash game approach as opposed to trying to win the week, tournament style. So I’ll lock in a strikeout pitcher in a great spot then spread the hitters among as many teams as possible.