Day: September 28, 2015

The Final FAAB. Week 26 FAAB Comments from Mastersball and Baseball Prospectus.

It’s all in the headline. Mastersball.com has published their comments about the final week FAAB moves in Tout Wars. You can read it here.

At this point, it is highly probable that Mike Gianella will win Tout NL and Chris Liss will win Tout AL. But the mixed leagues both have compelling three man races for the top. Best of luck to Adam Ronis, Gray Albright and Rudy Gamble in the Mixed Draft league, and Fred Zinkie, Tim Heaney and Scott Swanay in mixed auction.

This is your time!

Mike Gianella’s FAAB comments are posted on Tuesday morning. That is his time.

 

Where Do They Stand In Tout Wars Mixed Draft? Close. So Close.

At the All Star break Adam Ronis was in first place, Rudy Gamble was in third place, 17.5 points behind, and Grey Albright was in sixth place, 11.5 points even farther back.

By mid August, Gamble had moved into first place, Ronis was three and a half points behind in second, and Albright was in fifth, 10.5 more points behind Ronis.

On September 13th, two weeks ago, Gamble and Ronis were tied at 110.5, and Albright was in eighth place, 22 points behind.

Screenshot 2015-09-28 15.17.34Since then Albright has gained 17 points, six in ERA and three in WHIP, to vault over six teams and land in second place.

You know who helped? Jake Arrieta, having perhaps the greatest half-season of any pitcher ever, and Stephen Strasburg, whose early-season woes have been forgotten. In fact, all of Albright’s pitchers got hot at once, and two weeks with 130 innings of 1.794 ERA and .959 WHIP changed his season.

Asked what it was going to take for him to win, Albright said, “I need a miracle.

Actually…

Considering my team’s top home run hitter is Khris Davis and I had Strasburg on an off-year, I’d say I already had the miracle by being in third.”

Maybe, but consider that just three days ago, Albright was six and a half points behind Ronis and Gamble, who were tied. Team Albright is on the move.

And Team Gamble has gone in the wrong direction. What happened? Rudy writes:

Despite topping the league in R/HR/RBI, my team lost a stomach-churning 9 points last week because my overachieving pitching staff (through August) continued its September swoon thanks to regression, injuries (my top SP and RP – Kluber and Perkins – have contributed 12 IP of 0 Wins, 1 Save and a ~9.00 ERA in September), bad scheduling luck (5 of my SPs have had away starts at Coors in past 10 days), and some regretful decisions on rostering/FAAB (just about anything would’ve been better than rolling with Brett Anderson’s 2 start week last week).

But if I could lose all those points in a short time, I can gain them as well. My offense has been rolling all 2nd half and could snag a couple points with another good week. I will definitely need luck to beat Ronis in OBP (down .001 which would require being about +0.023 for the week) and SBs (tied but he has Pollock/Ellsbury and my best SB guys are Parra/Lindor). I picked up Robbie Ross and Feliz on FAAB to pair with Tolleson in hopes of gaining as much as 3 points in Saves (2 behind a troika of teams). There are ERA and WHIP points to be had. I will likely lose another K point given Perry is going with 9 SPs.

When I talked with Grey earlier last week, I gave myself 3:1 odds because my pitching felt so vulnerable. After my worst fears were realized, it’s definitely worse than that. But final weeks of the season can be real unpredictable (c’mon Cubs/Pirates – you have to rest Cole/Arrieta) so fingers crossed.

When asked what it would take to catch Ronis and Abright, he said, “A very good pitching week, a solid hitting week, and average or worse weeks for Adam and Grey. “

Which puts Adam Ronis in the catbird seat, at least for now, though he isn’t feeling that comfortable, it seems:

My team needs several categories to go my way in order for me to win. Rudy Gamble and I have exchanged the top spot several times over the last couple of weeks. Wins are one key category. Going into Saturday, Gamble and I each have 82 wins. Gamble is one stolen base in front of me. With great performances from Rich Hill and Gerrit Cole on Friday, I moved one spot ahead of Gamble in ERA. It was one start but the two-hit shutout, 10-strikeout performance by Hill was huge. For several weeks I rolled with three closers and it has given me 13 points in the save category and an advantage of seven saves over the next guy. At one point, I was in the middle of a crowded back. Tom Wilhelmsen was a nice addition. If the last few weeks are any indication, it’s going to come down to the final day and making lineup decisions for the final week will be key.

In this week’s FAAB Ronis picked up Dustin Pedroia, Albright claimed Kurt Suzuki and Jordy Mercer, and Gamble picked up Robbie Ross, Neftali Feliz and JP Arencibia.

How does the volatility index look?

Ronis has 5.5 points to gain and 5.5 to lose, which gives him a max of 116 and a low of 105.

Gamble could gain 11.5 points and could lose 7.5. If everything went right he could finish with 114, while if it all went south he end up at 95.

Albright could gain six points, and potentially lose 8.5, which means his best score is 111.5, and his worst is 97.

Follow the standings all week at onRoto.com.

A Three Way Race in Tout Wars Mixed Auction Will Go Down to the Final Day, Probably.

Fred Zinkie said, “When I joined Tout Wars, I didn’t think it would take years off my life!  I seem to get into these races often, but I can never figure out a way to separate. This year has been no different.”

When Fred says “separate” he means get a big enough lead that he can trot to the finish line. As a two-time champ, he has found ways to come out on top.

Screenshot 2015-09-28 12.33.05As we enter the last seven days of the 2015 season, Fred has opened a six point lead over Tim Heaney and Scott Swanay.

Swanay isn’t confident of his chances. “My team would have to be extremely lucky the rest of the way to win.  Bats have been asleep since mid-August, so a lot of things would need to break my way to come out on top.  Fred’s team has the highest point ceiling of the three, but Tim made some very shrewd late-season roster additions (e.g.- Yordano Ventura for a buck off the waiver wire) that enabled him to regain the lead. It’s not often that you have different leaders 3 consecutive days with just over a week to go – whatever happens the last 7 days, it’s been a fun ride.  Good luck, Tim and Fred!”

Heaney noted that Fred increased his lead Sunday night. He has a three-prong path to victory:

“My team needs many things:

1. My recent power surge to continue. The runs, home runs, and RBI columns are volatile and vulnerable. Yoenis Cespedes just about single-handedly carried my offense for almost two months but is running out of gas.
2. I must also keep pace in strikeouts and wins, so I’m going to have to play off the final week of pitching. I shifted my focus away from starting pitching in the last few months as I’ve tried to rebuild my offense and load up at closer. I’ve lost some traction in WHIP (to Fred Zinkie, of all people) and strikeouts as a result.
3. Have to watch for players who might be resting with postseason berths either officially or all but clinched.”
In Sunday night’s waivers Heaney added Tanner Roark and Dan Haren. Swanay countered with Nick Tropeano, Jorge Lopez (who makes his major league debut Tuesday at Petco), and Chris Bassitt, plus JJ Hardy, and Zinkie stood pat.
To win, Zinkie says that “in short, my team needs to hit.  I have little room to move in the pitching categories. But I could go in either direction in most hitting categories. With good hitting across the final nine days of the season, I could add 5-6 points to my overall total. With poor hitting, I could lose just as many.  Many of my hitters are bunched on the Yankees, Royals, Indians and Orioles. Having those teams succeed down the stretch will make a big difference.”
Some of those plus points came Sunday, after a period when Fred said his team “has been chasing a pack of teams in homers all month, but I have made little progress. The emergence of Darren O’Day as the O’s short-term closer is going to cost me a point in the saves category, and I definitely didn’t see that coming. But overall, I have been mostly treading water in each category.”
Tim Heaney was in second place at the All Star break, 26 points ahead of Swanay and Zinkie, who were a half point apart, virtually tied for fifth place. Since then Swanay and Zinkie have been, by far, the league’s two best teams. Heaney has been the third best.
Tim said about what has happened since: “Despite my starting pitcher decline, I’ve had minor success with rentals Tim Hudson and Erik Johnson the last few weeks. So playing the matchups again the final week is ideal. My $1 of FAAB might hinder that plan.

Didn’t help having Cespedes’ slump and dead weight players like Justin Turner and Greg Holland in my lineup this week — players who can’t be placed on the disabled list because their major league team didn’t put them on theirs — left me behind in warm bodies with at-bats.
I finished third in my rookie mixed auction season and in several years have flashed a few stretches when I’ve been first or close. Fred and Scott are seasoned, smart players. Year after year, this league proves that it’s one of the toughest in the fantasy world.
Good (but not that good) luck to Fred and Scott. This is exciting.”
A look at the volatility index, an assessment of possible points go be gained or lost, supports the claims of all three.
Zinkie could gain up to six points and could lose 7.5. His top score could be 114.5, his worst would be 101.
Heaney could gain 9.5 points, and could lose 8.5. His top score could be 111.5, his worst could be 93.5.
Swanay has a potential seven points of upside, and nine points of downside. His best score could be 109.5, his worst could be 93.5.
To see the current rosters and standings, visit ToutWars.com.