The Touts are back to address another question, round table style.
As a follow-up to last week’s question on struggling pitchers, how do you handle hitters in a rut?
Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): With reasonable options, I would sit a struggling hitter (well not Bryce Harper even 0 for his last 19) I would reserve them until they were @COL or had come out of the cold zone
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): At this point in the season, I’ll look back at the batted-ball profile and plate discipline numbers to see how things may be different compared to that player’s typical levels. With the new data available through Statcast, I’ll start digging into a hitter’s recent exit velocities to see if there is any hint of a possible injury. If health doesn’t appear to be an issue, I will look at the upcoming matchups and account for platoon matchups, park factors and such to see if there’s a favorable run of opposing pitchers coming up. If things are generally positive, I’ll probably continue to roll with the struggling hitter. If the matchups are tough (or if it’s a week with fewer games for the struggling player), I might tap into my depth for a lineup period or two until their are signs of a turnaround.
Anthony Perri (Fantistics, @Anthony_Perri): I start by sending these hitters a personal threatening tweet. If they don’t respond, I check out their advanced matrix. Pretty much everything Derek said: Contact rates, Hard Hit rates, BABIP, and compare them to their history to see if it’s more of a bad luck situation or a unfavorable trend.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): As with everything, it depends what options I have on my bench. Since the advent of the 10-day DL last season I’ve tended to stack my bench with pitchers, especially Middle Relievers, figuring that losing 1/9th of my pitching production for the rest of the week is a bigger deal than losing 1/14th of my hitting production for the rest of the week. Plus w/ 2 pitching ratio categories vs 1 hitting ratio categories, standings should be more volatile for pitching than for hitting (i.e. – more opportunity to gain/lose ground). So, if I have any Bench spots left for hitters, I’m more likely to have Bench hitters who are either OFs (so that they can potentially be plugged into 6 lineup spots) or INFs w/ multi-position eligibility. Given this philosophy/strategy, I’m almost forced to leave struggling hitters in my lineup, and I’m fine with that, since I have no idea when a hitter is going to stop (or start) struggling.
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): Hitters are more easily broken down than pitchers where there is way more that needs to be broken down than just the man throwing pitches. When a batter is struggling, I keep an eye on his strike zone control. Some players go 1-for-20 with 11 strikeouts. Other might go 1-for-20 but only strike out three times while also taking six walks. It’s also important to look at measures like hard-hit ball rates, hit distribution (LF/CF/RF), upcoming ballparks and the matches with the men on the bump. Ultimately, it’s about the approach the player is taking as you can have a good approach and not get the results you are looking for if you’re paying attention to a smallish sample size. Also have to look at those matchups. If a player is struggling right now, and he struggles against lefties, he’s gonna be on the bench if he’s set to face three in his next six games.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Counting stats mostly depend on playing time, so that is king. I am not really in leagues with a ton of options just hanging around as free agents, so usually I am forced to ride with who I got. That is certainly true in Tout-AL. In my one large no-trade NFBC team, I have toggled a couple of players based on venue, but I don’t know that it makes THAT much difference over the season.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I’m even less inclined to drastically alter my opinion on a hitter than a pitcher, because hitters change much less quickly and frequently than pitchers do. Like for pitchers, I generally ignore actual results, and focus on the underlying skill metrics — batted ball profile, plate discipline rates, Statcast figures (barrels, average fly ball distance), etc. I also use my own developed expected metrics, such as xBABIP and xHR/FB to identify hitters on the verge of improving or declining. I exercise even more excruciating patience than with pitchers, but will make decisions based on dramatic changes in the underlying skills that suggest a true change in plate approach or talent level.
Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): Simple. I bench them and they immediately start hitting.
Stephania Bell (ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Stephania_ESPN): Ha! Andrea beat me to the punch. This also happens to me. I’m willing to bench a hitter – even a big name – if he’s in a slump and there is an option out there who has favorable upcoming matchups that week. The trick is remembering to swap out the platoon player who was worth a one-week start for the more consistent hitter when he’s found his groove again (which, as Andrea mentioned, is usually shortly after benching said player).
Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): This year, most of my leagues are too deep to ever consider benching a player who’s receiving consistent playing time. In N.L. Tout, for example, my bench is three minor leaguers and Kelby Tomlinson. Even if I wanted to sit a struggling star, I don’t have the luxury. In mixed leagues, this question really comes down to the player in question. Also, as Ray says, you want to understand the quality of a player’s at-bats, not just the results. We need to look for deviations from prior seasons as well as contact rates and quality of contact. The most important variable, of course, is the hitter’s upcoming matchups.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): As noted by others, in an only-league, the options are pretty skimpy. We’re pretty much stuck waiting for the rebound while watching for trade or FA opportunities. Like DVR and Podz and others, the underlying metrics play a role, but they have to pretty dire to opt out on an established player in favour of some of the guys in the free agent pool, who are usually floating face-down.
Scott Wilderman (OnRoto): Primarily for the playing time/counting stats reasons noted above, I do not give up on a hitter unless I read/hear that his manager has or is about to give up on him. Usually even a secondary hitter is not on my team unless he has the potential to contribute SBs or HRs, and as long has he’d getting the plate appearances I am expecting, I’ll just wait out a slump.
Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): I look at hitters much differently than pitchers when it comes to slumps. In leagues with daily roster management, I’ll simply look at the individual match-ups and sit a slumping player in favor of someone else if the match-up is equal or better. If it’s a league with weekly roster moves, then it’s simply a matter of looking at match-ups and splits. If I have someone (or can acquire someone from waivers) with a better set of match-ups then I’ll make the swap for the week, but if the match-ups are equal, I’ll stick with the better player and let him work through it for the week.
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): Unless there’s an injury or an indication he’s going to get a day or two off, I try not to worry about my best hitters when they’re slumping. They’re going to snap out of it and I don’t want to have them on the bench when they do. If they’re marginal players, it’s much easier to swap them out for someone who’s doing better.
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I try to exercise excruciating patience with most of my hitters. So long as they are playing, the plate skills are holding up and even some of the expected stats like xwOBA, xSLG and xBA check out, I will keep them active. If it’s a 12-team mixed league and I have capable replacements for fringe, late-round types (like Kipnis, Zimmerman, etc.), I won’t be so hesitant to make a change.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I wish I had something ground-breaking to add, but I really don’t. Streaks, hot and cold, are often real, but they can be started or ended at any time. There’s no evidence a hot hitter stays hot or cold hitter continues to struggle. As such, it’s all about matchups for me. The only exception – OK, two exceptions, are if a batter is fanning at an excessive rate during the cold spell or if there’s hint of an injury (again, more Lord Obvious than earth-shattering).