This week’s ToutTable features four sets of outfielders, all performing at similar levels through this point of the season.
Which from each pair of top-40 outfielders to date do you want for the rest of the season: Michael Brantley or Nick Markakis? Mitch Haniger or Odubel Herrera? Shin-Soo Choo or Matt Kemp? Toescar Hernandez or Mallex Smith?
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Brantley v. Markakis is strictly a health question as Brantley is offensively superior. As risk averse as I often am, I’d still go Brantley because he is projected to be vastly superior for the balance of the year–for example, a .354 wOBA over Markakis’s .324 per Steamer ROS.
Haniger versus Odubel Herrera is much much closer, with Haniger getting the slight offensive nod. But I’d go Herrera. His playing time seems more certain, he has an incremental steals advantage (per projections) and that outweighs the tiny offensive advantage that Haniger has. But this one is within rounding error and I wouldn’t fight back too much against folks going with Haniger.
Kemp v. Choo. I have long long long been a Kemp buyer and he is performing for LA. But ROS, I’d still want Choo’s OBP and offensive superiority to Kemp’s bursts. Also, I don’t trust Kemp’s health as much, or his PT as a Dodger as much ROS.
Teoscar v. Mallex. Both are not great OB guys. Mallex is steals which *might* end up worth more. I don’t have a PT crystal ball for either guy. Depends completely on how badly I need steals, but I’ll pretend I don’t and go with the better offensive guy and that is Teoscar. But even that isn’t all that great.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Brantley vs Markakis – at age 34, we know what Markakis is and even a stronger offensive year from him lacks excitement, whereas we know what Brantley can do when healthy, it’s just been that health that’s been elusive. He’s clearly a far superior option for as long as he remains off the DL.
Haniger vs Herrera – I prefer the upside of Haniger due to the power advantage and the occasional steal (he actually has one more steal than Herrera), plus his RBI+R total is likely to be greater.
Choo vs Kemp – Kemp won’t maintain a .400+ BABIP and that’s what has been driving his performance so far. Choo is doing what he always does and that’s as good as or better than a fortunate Kemp. Choo is the pick.
Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): I thought I’d take our Razzball Trade Analyzer on a test drive to see on this one to see if I disagreed. I will use 15-team mixed $ value since that’s the Tout Mixed format. Here it goes. 1) Brantley ($22) over Markakis ($7). No-brainer. Brantley a little better in every way even with a slight injury discount b/c of his history. 2) Odubel ($13) over Haniger ($11). Much closer and could see deciding based on team balance. In vacuum, taking Odubel’s AVG + SB advantages over Haniger’s HRs, 3) Choo ($9) over Kemp (-$6). Maybe my system is too bearish on Kemp’s playing time. Still, I’m taking Choo without a doubt. 4) Teoscar ($4.90) over Mallex ($4.70). Wow, almost identical. I am taking Teoscar unless my team is absolutely desperate for speed as Teoscar comes with a heaping helping of upside.
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): (1) Brantley. His body could wear down, and the power stroke will slow, but Markakis hasn’t really been an all-star caliber hitter in a decade. (2) I’ll favor Herrera. A bit more speed as well as a likely average gain. Also feel better about the health factor. (3) I’ll go with Kemp, but tough since he could pull up lame at any moment, and because logic dictates he has further to drop than Choo. (4) Smith for the speed. Hernandez hits it hard, but I could see him losing playing time due to his poor work of late.
Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): No question that I want Teoscar over Mallex. They rank similarly in Roto value as of now, but whereas Mallex looks pretty close to his ceiling, Teoscar could be performing much better. He’s top 5 in barrel rate and exit velocity on flies and liners and has a reasonable strikeout rate (22.3 percent), yet he’s batting just .247. I’m not surprised his xAvg is .269, and xStats says he should have three additional homers, too. His actual .259 Iso is more than legit.
Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs and Fantrax, @jeffwzimmerman): Brantley and it’s not even close for me. Brantley has more raw talent and historically better seasons. Even though he has a major injury history, I’ll always take the upside with hitters. Mitch Haniger or Odubel Herrera? This one is tough but in a vacuum, I like Herrera with the speed and nice home park. If my team really needed power, I lean Haniger. Shin-Soo Choo or Matt Kemp? As good as Choo has been this year, the Mariners always find a way to sit him. I’ll take Kemp unless I was in desperate need of OBP. Toescar Hernandez or Mallex Smith? This decision is straight up a power versus speed decision at this point in the season. Both have fantasy value but may have shaky playing time issues.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Markakis – don’t trust Brantley’s health; Odubel – better overall game; Kemp – I think being back in LA will keep him going all year; Teoscar – better upside methinks
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Brantley for higher upside, Markakis for steady production. I know, it’s a cop out. Brantley is really surprising me, more with power then health since he’s over the shoulder woes. Haniger’s batting average with runners on is abnormally high, but the rest is in line with skills, I’ll take him. Kemp’s a great story, but a BABIP north of .400 isn’t happening much longer. Give me Choo in what should be an improving Rangers lineup. Here’s another hedge – I think both Hernandez and Smith can keep up their current level, so it comes down to needs.