Month: July 2018

Welcome to the weekly Tout Wars FAAB report, on its new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:20 PM ET to discuss the results.

You can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Let’s look at everyone’s place in the standings along with remaining FAAB.

Colton and the Wolfman are mid-pack in terms of FAAB. Mike Podhorzer has the 4th most but it’s unlikely a significant player will fall to him. It looks like this isn’t the year to be hoarding FAAB in AL only with the likelihood of scant crossover help.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

I’ll go out on a limb and predict Tristan Cockcroft will bid $972 on Manny Machado on Sunday night.

The top is interesting as the front two teams are 4th and 3rd with respect to remaining FAAB units. The league may come down to the acquisition by each after the deadline deals flesh out.

For what it’s worth, when looking at the AL FAAB totals, I didn’t suggest it was a mistake for the lowest teams to still have a ton of FAAB left, knowing all too well where the bottom clubs are with the rest of their budget.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Fred Zinkie’s Commentary

In what was likely my biggest overpay since I joined Tout Wars in 2011, I grabbed Yu Darvish at $174 with a runner-up bid of $12. Perhaps some of my leaguemates didn’t realize that Darvish has been returned to waivers, and others likely doubt that he will amount to anything in the second half. Still, his upside is probably greater than that of anyone else who will be on waivers from this point forward, and I had more FAAB than I knew what to do with. And grabbing injured players during the abbreviated week is generally a solid plan, as I can move Darvish to my DL in just a few days. I made a similar move with Ryan Braun, who cost me $2 and will effectively cost me three days of Denard Span before I can stash him on my DL. Finally, I made a low-cost acquisition of Elias Diaz, who has been respectable at the dish this year and should play regularly until Francisco Cervelli recovers from (another) concussion.

Amed Rosario garnered a bid of $46 by Ray Flowers. The 22-year-old is going to be a liability in the OBP category (lifetime .283 mark), but he was a coveted prospect at this time last year and has some speed. Dan Straily also garnered a significant bid, fetching $33 from Zach Steinhorn, who is likely looking to fill out his rotation and pick up extra whiffs and wins in this short week. Straily faces the Rays on Friday. My favorite bid by a leaguemate was Ron Shandler’s $8 acquisition of Jeff McNeil, who is thriving in the Minors this year (1.043 OPS) and should get a shot with the Mets by the beginning of August. Other players who were targeted as stash additions during this short week were Jung Ho Kang (Bret Sayre, $6), Peter Alonso (Sayre, $6) and Julio Urias (Tim Heaney, $1).

Todd’s Take

Obviously, mixed league formats don’t deal with crossover players which is why the totals are much lower.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Rudy Gamble’s Commentary

Todd’s Take

Look like we’re in for a fun finish with the top couple of teams also having a lot of FAAB to take advantage of the impending players yet to emerge.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Keep in mind even though this is a head to head league, there’s no playoffs, best record wins.

This week’s question

What do you do over the break to get ready to manage your teams the rest of the season? Please feel free to answer in context – this is what I do to protect a lead, this is what I do when I need to make up ground, etc.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): Unfortunately, I’ve got a lot more experience trying to make up ground than trying to protect a lead, but this time of year, I’m looking for similar things regardless of my position. I begin by looking at the category standings to determine where I can gain or lose the most points in the shortest amount of time. If I’m protecting a lead, I’m looking at pickups or trades that will help me out in the categories where I’m most likely to lose points. If I’m trying to make up ground, I’m making those moves to try to upgrade roster spots in those categories. The All-Star break is typically a time where I’ll begin shifting resources on my pitching staff to go more starter-heavy if wins and strikeouts are an opportunity to gain points, and if my position in saves is relatively safe.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): When I’m ahead in the standings, unfortunately not the case in Tout Wars this particular year, I will often look at the standings and see where I can block my competitors by trading away stats in categories that will have greater impact by stifling or slowing down my competitors chance of moving up in those categories, rather than hoarding them for myself. I especially look to do this as close to the league trade deadline as possible for categories, such as saves, stolen bases so there is limited opportunity to counter such a move. In Tout this year, i”m just kinda desperate to climb my way back as best I can to the 60 point level. So longshot faab picks and trades will be necessary.

Seth Trachtman (Rotoworld, @sethroto): Generally, I find the All-Star break to be a good time to assess where I am in each category and make trade offers to assess those needs. Let’s face it, the break is torture! If there are needs I can address easily via trade, the break is a great time to evaluate other rosters and come up with potential trade offers for the stretch run. It’s also a time to reassess where my injured players are in their timetables, and in Tout I’ve had more than my fair share over the last month.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): The most important first step is to look at every category and see how many points you have now and what is required to gain the point. Look at the weekly rate stats for the teams you need to catch and perhaps those close behind and not just yours. You want a very realistic guide that may change your lineup or free agent pickup or help you with trades. You should end up with a plus minus chart for any team you have that has the ability and motivation to improve (I would say all teams but I understand the drag if you have several teams who are out of it – still in fairness to the league you should always be looking to improve your team’s performance.

Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): While the ASB doesn’t hold any great significance, it is helpful to take a step back around this time of year from week-to-week roster optimization to gauge your chances at winning a league. Maximizing category points is always the goal. But the slimmer your chances, the greater your risk tolerance should be. The biggest risk/reward is through trading but roster construction opportunities include: 1) changing up SP/RP mix depending on points to gain/lose in pitching, 2) being more aggressive in FAAB on a rookie power or speed bat, and 3) changing up your hitter/pitcher bench mix to prepare for pennant runs.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ): Lots of people giving the right answer about category/standings assessments. That’s obviously critical work, and needs to be done by anyone in contention entering the second half. A little more philosophically, I make a point to try and sort of “clear my cache” of recency bias, preconceived notions about players on my roster / free agent pool based on how they have done recently. Basically, try to reboot (geez, second computer metaphor in one graf) my own impressions of my team. As others have said, marinating with the league standings/overall 1st half stats helps to do that. Just unplugging a bit helps too. Basically, I tend to develop blind spots over the course of half a season, and I’m trying to clear them and prepare myself to make more sound decisions down the stretch.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): I’ll be the one to say it… I work on football over the break. I wish I had more time to devote to in-season baseball management, but the truth is I really don’t. My job is to help others succeed, which often means I do so at the expense of my own squads. With the rush of fantasy football in July, there really isn’t any more time for fantasy baseball during the A.S.B. than any other week of the season.

Scott Engel (RotoExperts, @scotteRotoEx): I am assessing the team and league throughout the season, and the break does not give me any more time to examine anything more than I normally would. But I my get anxious without any daily action, and some others may feel the same, so it’s n ideal tie to make trades

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): In my 30+ years of playing this stupid game, this is the first time ever – in ANY league – that I find myself headed into the Break in dead last. Odds of winning = 0%. Odds of making a run into contention = maybe 10%. I would follow Ray’s lead and start planning for football, but I’d be scanning cheat sheets for Fran Tarkenton and Terry Bradshaw. I’m committed to being a good fantasy citizen, however, so I’ll keep plugging away with small, incremental goals. Goal #1: Get the heck out of last place. Goal #2: 75 points, which preserves my FAAB for 2019. Goal #3: Figure out how to accomplish #1 and #2 after having already traded my Machado-caliber chips. Last thing I ever thought I’d be doing is likening myself to the ownership of the Baltimore Orioles. There’s a first time for everything.

Fred Zinkie (Years in Tout Wars: 8, @): This answer will come as little surprise to people who play in leagues with me, but I love to talk trade during the ASB. Trade talks are often impacted by daily results. For example, an owner wants to trade you a certain starter until that starter throws eight shutout innings, and then he suddenly wants to keep him and deal a different starter instead. The ASB is the only time in the season when we get an extended time with static stats and no new injuries. For this reason, trade talks that are started on Sunday night have five full days to reach completion before anything happens that will cause either owner to change their player valuations. Additionally, with no game action to occupy our time, owners should have plenty of available minutes to work through trade talks.

Gene McCaffrey (Wise Guy Baseball, @WiseGuyGene): I take a look at possible trades and then I take a break. If I didn’t already know what I need to do to hold a lead or make up ground, I would be ashamed of myself. And sometimes a break gives me a new idea or a fresh perspective. And my family is happy to see me. Usually.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Generally, I’ll go over my own roster, see where my statistical category shortcomings and redundancies are, then look at other rosters to see if there’s a potential good match with another owner. I don’t alter my approach much based on where I currently sit in the standings. I’ll also spend some extra time reading about minor leaguers who stand a good chance of being called up to the majors to see if that might be another source of help.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): First off, it’s a bit of a relief to do nothing over the break. Worrying every day about lineup changes and standings positions can be a bit overwhelming. Like Fred, Gene and others, I like to use the break to find potential trade partners who can help me reach my goals of making a championship run … or building for next year. The great thing about the break is no one’s generating any stats, so we don’t have to worry about a big game or a potential injury impacting players’ values in the middle of any trade talks.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I focus a lot more effort in July in my dynasty league. It is a good time to assess the remainder of 2018, but also start to consider 2019 and 2020 (and 2021) and set goals, figure out how to marshal resources for those goals. Redraft leagues–it really is no different from every other week of the season–trying to consider where I can gain/lose points in the standings, fill holes, who may be traded and what opportunities get created from that, how other teams’ moves affect my position, etc.  I try to have the most up-to-date set of projections (making my own adjustments and following multiple sites that update themselves–like BaseballHQ.com) to help me assess.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): I agree with most of the ideas above, but there’s no reason to wait for the ASB to access your roster, think about potential trades, etc. There’s only about 40% of the season remaining at the ASB, so whatever I think I need to do, I want to do that ASAP. I often use this time to take a break. It’s nice to have a few days not looking at box scores and thinking about any of this. In fact, I just recently started my football prep!

lawr michaels (CreativeSports2, @lawrmichaels): obviously, my spot in the relative standings is important. and, i will never roll over. eg, my LABR AL team is awful, but there are still 10-15 points i can gain if my players do what they are supposed to do, and if that means moving up in the standings, i will stick with it. plus, i think we owe it to our league-mates to play out the season as best we can so ideally the best team wins because they were the best team: not because a ghost team left Aroldys Vizcaino on the DL. but, i try to really–fearlessly and objectively–look at my teams and what are my chances and what do i need to do relative to the league and rules and my spot in the standings. and, if the answer is “five points in steals, four in runs, four in strikeouts, and four in wins” would put me among the contending teams, the question is can i realistically look to get that production, and if so, from what source? will the steals points cost me in saves and how much? and bearing that in mind, am i realistic when i think i can win? so, from there it is a question of what can i manipulate relative to my rosters–and my league-mate’s–that are reasonable that might push me to the top. and, then I try to achieve just that. but, i also try to do this concertedly, for there are still a lot of games to be played, so no time to panic just yet if I am hanging with the top teams. and, if i have not had a hot period for a while, all the better. finally, do make sure your reserve list is exploited to the max of your options so you have the max of choices when something goes wrong. for it will.

Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @glenncolton1): There are so many things that one should do to re-evaluate one’s fantasy baseball team in the calm of the all-star break. For me, I look at which players’ value is going to change by the trades that will occur over the next 2.5 weeks. Who is going to get traded to a better situation? Who is going to get traded into an “only” league? Who is going to benefit from a teammate being traded away (i.e., get a closer job). Foreseeing those changes a week earlier than everyone else could be the key to victory

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): The main thing I do is take a couple of days to ignore the standings, etc. About the time the All-Star game begins, I’ll take a look at the standings. In redraft leagues, I’ll try to determine what categories I can gain multiple points and whether there’s a path to achieving that goal. In keeper leagues, I make the final determination of whether to go for it or make trades to improve keepers .

D.J. Short (Rotoworld, @djshort): It’s always nice to take a breather during this time. Especially if you are in a league with daily lineup changes. It can get overwhelming. This season is a little different in that so much of the schedule has already been played out by the All-Star break that ideally you have been thinking about where you are a bit earlier, but if not, it’s important to look at categories you might have a cozy advantage in and try to leverage that in other areas. Nothing groundbreaking here. This is said time and time again for a reason. It works. Even with more than half the season behind us, many people still evaluate potential trades based on where players fall within website X or Y’s rankings. Please throw that out. Make your decisions based on what you need. Your own context.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): Over the break, I always use this opportunity to measure my team’s strengths and weaknesses in each statistical category. I look for the best possible scenarios before performing any drop/adds or trades. I never want to make any moves to where I gain a point in a category, but end up losing 2 or more points in another category. Like most of the Touts, we play in more than this league and most likely are either at the top, the middle, or towards the bottom of our league standings. For me, the higher that I am in the league standings, the more conservative I tend to be with making any moves or trades. I also keep a keen eye on prospects that may get the call up to the major leagues that can immediately make an impact.

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath): Depending on where I am in the standings will be how aggressive I will be with trade offers/FAAB. If I’m way back, I will look at the categories in which I think I can gain the most ground the fastest. If I have to overpay for a trade on paper so be it. I try to look at positional depth and where am I the strongest/weakest. If I can upgrade categories while also doing it in a positional sense, all the better.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’m with those saying they’re already aware of where they stand within each league and have a feel for the category math. What I like to do is catch up on what some of my competitors are doing. Are they dumping saves? Ignoring steals? Whatever the case may be, I’ll make sure I’m not missing anything with respect to one of my competitors. The other thing I do is go through my DL and farm players to get the latest on their return or promotion. Knowing where I may get some internal help shapes my impending FAAB bids, especially in AL or NL only formats.

For the third time this year, Rotowire’s Clay Link has the top score in Tout Daily. No one else has done it more than once. Clay’s big night jumped him to fourth this period, just 2.4 points away from his third Golden Ticket into the Survivor Tournament finals. Jeff Boggis finished a mere three points behind Clay followed by Jeff Erickson in third.

Link  received solid performances from Justin Verlander and Rich Hill. Where he really set himself apart was 23 point performances from both Rougned Odor and Dexter Fowler as Clay was the only Tout to have either on his roster. Check out the rest of Clay’s lineup below.

Derek VanRiper, also from Rotowire is in the driver’s seat with one week left in Period 4, leading the pack for the next three Golden Tickets to be awarded. Michael Beller is in second for the period with Justin Mason in third. Ten Touts are within 20 points of the final ticket insuring a hotly contested final week of the Period. Please note, with the All-Star game next Tuesday, we’ll be playing Tout Daily on Friday, the 20th.

Rick Wolf continues to lead the overall with Todd Zola remaining in second while Link closed the gap in third. Follow your favorite Tout’s plight on the Leaderboard.

Here’s Clay’s week-winning roster:

It’s Period 4, Week 3 of Tout Daily. Please note we’ll be playing on Friday next week with the Midsummer Classic played on our usual Tuesday evening.

Here’s some of the Tout’s picks – curiously no one recommended an ace, though each team needs two pitchers.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Ryne Stanek: Middle relief pitcher, turned spot-starter for tonight’s game against the Detroit Tigers. He has a salary of only $4,000 which allows me to load up on quality hitters. I just can’t make an adequate lineup that involves rostering Verlander at $13,300 or Bauer at $13,600.

J.D. Martinez: J.D. Martinez is on an incredible hot streak. In his past 10 games, he has 4 home runs and 16 RBI. He carries a $5,800 salary tonight.

Lawr Michaels (CreativeSports2, @lawrmichaels)

Enyel De Los Santos: The ultimate crapshoot gives me a rookie hurler facing a team that is only hitting .232 off right-handers. I need points so taking the underdog makes sense, and ideally the Mets have not seen de los Santos, thus he can confuse them for six innings?

Stephen Piscotty: The Athletics go up against Justin Verlander–a formidable task–but he comes in hitting .333-3-9 over his last ten games and ideally the hot bat will generate some points!

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Tyler Anderson: Always good to have a true contrarian play. Anderson pitches in Coors so would be surprised if I am not the only one with him tonight in Tout Daily. He pitched eight shutout innings with 9Ks his last time at Coors. Against LHP, the D-Backs only have one real threat in Goldschmidt and Anderson is smart enough to pitch around him.

Christian Yelich: Any Milwaukee hitter really, but Yelich has the revenge narrative for his old team plus he mashes RHP. Pablo Lopez is young and will be overmatched by the young talented veteran. Look for all the Brew crew to knock the cover off the ball.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Matthew Boyd: Likely going against my normal pattern this week (locking in an ace) as there’s too many good bats I want (Boston) so looking at two from Boyd, Richards and Hill.

Mookie Betts: Going to try to fit in Mookie, JD and #votebenny, wish me luck

Gene McCaffrey (Wise Guy Baseball, @WiseGuyGene)

Hill/Chacin: I see the sense in a super-cheap SP tonight but I just can’t pull the trigger. Hoping for mediocrity-plus from Rich Hill and Jhoulys Chacin

Logan Morrison: Last time I checked he had a slugging % of .800 against flyball righties. Ian Kennedy is one. At $3500, frees up cash for use in Coors.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Enyel De Los Santos: Automatic start against the Mets, though he’s not exactly cheap.

Xander Bogaerts: I’m loading up on Red Sox and Twins tonight against Yovani Gallardo & Ian Kennedy – Bogaerts has done better against RHP’s than lefties this year, to boot.

This week’s question: What player was the first half’s biggest surprise hitter and pitcher? How do you see them performing over the second half?

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath)

Hitter – Has to be Max Muncy for me who I snagged for $43 on 6.11. Since then he has been the 2nd best hitter in baseball behind Goldy. Of course, regression is coming but the crazy thing on Muncy is his batting eye (BB% and K%). Leads me to think he won’t fall off a cliff completely.

Pitcher – Ross Stripling. Sticking with the Dodgers theme. Hard to think where they would be without him.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys)

Nick Markakis for me. From undrafted in many 15 team leagues to a top-15 OF (even better actually). The last time he was truly fantasy relevant was back in 2011, and even then, it was as a depth outfielder in mixed leagues. The last time he was a fantasy star of this magnitude was back in 2009. Thirty-four year olds in their 13th season aren’t supposed to have their career best efforts.

On the hill I’ll highlight Miles Mikolas who has gone from pitching in a foreign country to posting a WHIP of 1.03 with an ERA of 2.63 through 17 starts overnight. Hell of a first season back in the States.

Gene McCaffrey (Wise Guy Baseball, @WiseGuyGene)

Chris Davis – Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised but I am. I’ve been expecting the kind of explosion that he has exploded several times before, but a .490 OPS is beyond bad and raises doubts that he’ll ever do anything again. Still, in the leagues I own him I am holding on and holding out increasingly desperate hope.

Blake Snell – I expected good things, but more like 3.24 than 2.24, and despite his dominance I expect his final ERA to be above that 3.24. His FIP says he’s a 3.50 pitcher and I agree.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Good surprise or bad surprise?  Let’s talk terribad surprises.  Hitter for me is Domingo Santana. 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 313 OBP and a demotion–ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? I think his ADP was right around 100 or so. Good grief. Hon. mention: Jonathan Schoop, Alex Avila, Amed Rosario, Luis Valbuena.

Pitcher for me is Marcus Stroman, who single-handedly destroyed my Tout team with his 6.50 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1 win, $-17 value. I wasn’t expecting all THAT much, but I sure wasn’t expecting THIS. And to think I like trashing Kyle Gibson and Rick Porcello. Hon. mention: Luis Castillo, Zach Godley, Jon Gray, Luke Weaver, Sonny Gray.  I hate all these guys–thanks for nothing.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt)

I couldn’t decide on good surprise vs terribad, so I did both. Good hitter: I’m surprised how great Jose Ramirez is, but I’ll take Eddie Rosario. Keeping value company with Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, and cost a third to a quarter the price. Bad hitter: I’ll agree with Gene on Chris with a “C” Davis, whose .489 OPS and 102 Ks speak for themselves.

Good pitcher: Gotta be wowed by Edwin Diaz outperforming lofty expectations YTD, but the true surprise for me is Blake Snell, which means I now agree with two of Gene’s picks. Bad pitcher: I feel Doug’s pain with Stroman, but my vote is for Chris Archer, a 4th-rounder by ADP who has returned negative value, and has as many hits allowed as Ks. Buy low? Maybe so. But for this exercise, just low.

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella)

I see a lot of people have already answered Max Muncy (which is the “right ” answer) but I’ll talk about Scooter Gennett to avoid repetition. I thought the power would be there but the batting average is the shock. I suspect Gennett can/will keep it up everywhere else but in batting average, but if he hits .280 or so ROS that’s still a nice return.

Everyone loved Josh Hader. No one thought he’d be one of the best pitchers in fantasy this year. The ability isn’t in question, but the durability and workload make me wonder if he will hold up in the second half or if the Brewers will rest him more frequently to save him for the playoffs/stretch run.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Biggest surprise hitter is a tie for me between Nick Markakis and Max Muncy. Markakis has always been a high-average guy but hasn’t sniffed 20 homers since 2008, yet now at the halfway point, he’s crushing both the power and average. The incentive of a new contract does that to a guy. Muncy is just a feel-good stroy here as he struggled to crack the lineup in Oakland and now seems to be an all-star caliber infielder with insane power. He’s reaching his physical prime here at age-27 and things seem to be clicking. I don’t see either guy being nearly as productive in the 2nd half. The All-Star break will kill the momentum and stats will normalize.

As for the most surprising pitcher, I’ll throw it to Miles Mikolas. My biggest fear was that he would be the pitching version of the 2017 Eric Thames and fall apart after the month of April. His consistency has been solid and seems to be a stabilizing factor for the Cardinals rotation. You won’t see an uptick in stats, but you will see more of the same. He’s got the maturity and mental make-up to stay on his current path.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball)

I would pick Muncy over Markakis, though both are worthy and helping season long fantasy players. Markakis has had good seasons in the past even if you have to go back several years. Muncy played sporadically for Oakland, never showing the consistency he has this year with the Dodgers where he is a top three hitter since being brought up from the minors in April.

On the pitching side, while Stripling has been much better than expected, he was at least on a team on opening day. Where would the Brewers be without early April callup Junior Guerra? In sixteen starts since April 10, Guerra is 5-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 88 strikeouts in 87.7 innings.

Zach Steinhorn (Baseball Prospectus, @zachsteinhorn)

Jesus Aguilar – Talk about taking advantage of an opportunity. This guy was barely worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues heading into the season. Maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised about the power considering that Aguilar did hit 16 homers in just 279 at-bats last season, but he’s well on his way towards doubling that total this year. The .300-plus batting average is a surprise. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers distribute the playing time if Aguilar begins to cool off and the rest of the lineup is healthy.

Miles Mikolas – We saw the stellar numbers Mikolas posted while pitching in Japan but no one really knew what to expect from him this season, especially since he registered a 6.44 ERA in his last big league stint back in 2014. The risk averse (myself included) avoided him. Big mistake. Mikolas has been a top-25 fantasy SP so far, though the lack of strikeouts limits his ceiling. While I don’t think he will be a second-half bust, Mikolas owners might want to see what they can get for him on the trade market. His stock may be at its peak right now.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter)

For hitters, Paul Goldschmidt has been a surprise to watch. His owners (including me) all panicked when he was so pathetic. We thought maybe the humidor had ruined him. But then came his amazing hot streak and his numbers are just fine….except lost in this is that he ONLY HAS 2 SB!!! After the last 3 years of 21, 32 and 18 steals. I don’t know why he isn’t running, but this has really hurt his value. My team really needs those other 7-8 steals he should have had by now.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Lots of options for this, but I’ll go with Trevor Bauer. He’s on pace for 216IP, 2.45 1.09, 14W, 278K….which for me is a $43 AL-only league value. And while he isn’t likely to keep up quite this pace, he may not slide much. His last 12 starts in 2017 were at a 2.45 ERA 1.20 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. He’s got better control, more fastball velocity and a new pitch. If you want more details, there’s a good article by Travis Sawchik on Fangraphs about him (dated 6/25/18).

Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis)

The biggest surprise hitter is Max Muncy. He wasn’t even drafted in most draft champions leagues. He didn’t do anything of note with Oakland and had a good season at Triple-A with the Dodgers last season, but the 27-year old has been the best waiver wire add. He has 20 home runs in 193 at-bats and is eligible at multiple positions. While a 31.7 percent HR/FB rate is likely to decline, he has a good eye at the plate, has an 18.8 percent walk rate and hits the ball in the air often and hard. The pace will slow down, but he will still be good.

For pitcher, it’s Ross Stripling. His numbers as a starter resemble an ace. Low walks, high strikeouts, excellent ERA and WHIP. The strand rate is lucky, but all the skills look real. The concern I have is fatigue later in the season since he hasn’t thrown many innings the last few seasons.

Jeff Mans (Fantasy Guru Elite, @Jeff_Mans)

Albert Almora hitting .330 (.365 OBP). This was a guy that got some attention leading into the season when it was thought he’d be the Cubs primary leadoff hitter Vs LHP but that hasn’t even sustained itself. Finding a player in the later rounds or on waivers that can hit us 20+ HR’s is a lot easier these days than finding one that gives us a .300+ average (or 350+ OBP). Almora isn’t going to sustain this high of an average or OBP but considering he’s made great strides against RHP from his minor league days, I do not think the drop is going to be as great as some might think.

The biggest surprise pitcher to me is Mike Foltynewicz. Here is a guy that had a glaring weakness against LHH and has seemingly fixed that this season. What’s more is that he’s doing it by barely throwing his changeup. As good as he’s been, his pitch mix still tells me that there is a drop coming especially as he faces teams with more left handed thunder.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

The biggest upside surprise hitter for me is Ozzie Albies of Atlanta. We know that the stolen bases would be there, but I don’t think that anyone projected his 18 home run and 50 RBI output at this stage of the season. He also leads the National League in runs scored with 69. The most important stat that is not measured is his love of the game. He gives it all on the field. He hustles and just shows a great passion for the game. He has elevated not only his game, but the other players on the Atlanta Braves this season. He is going to be a lot of fun to watch over the next several seasons.

The biggest upside surprise pitcher this season for me is Blake Snell for Tampa Bay. As of today and through 115 IP, he has a 12-4 record with a K/BB ratio of 132/44. He carries an outstanding ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 1.03. He’s still on 25 years old with room to grow. The big change for Snell this season has been his minimization of his past control issues. I would not be surprised if he is in the mix for the Cy Young award this season.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer)

Max Muncy is this season’s biggest surprise, no question. He was released by the A’s during spring training in 2017 and then signed a minor league contract with the Dogers, and now he sits with a .425 wOBA and 31.3% HR/FB rate over 248 plate appearances?! And even as a left-handed hitter, he’s been fantastic against southpaws. He has always possessed excellent plate discipline, and that has continued in the Majors, providing optimism that this isn’t just some majorly fluky hot streak. Clearly, regression is coming, but I think he remains a solid 12-team mixed league asset the rest of the way.

On the pitching side, it has to be Ross Stripling, who is currently fourth in ERA among qualified pitchers. He has been legimitately elite, thanks to pinpoint control and a hefty strikeout rate. However, the magic is going to wear off at some point. The SwStk% marks on his pitches aren’t all that impressive and certainly don’t support a near 30% strikeout rate. And it’s awfully tough to sustain such a minuscule walk rate. He’ll likely continue earning positive value in 12-team mixed leagues, but producing more like a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Lots of great stuff by my colleagues. I’ll add I’m not surprised, but downright shocked Elvis Andrus has the same number of steals as me. I know Andrus has been dealing with injuries, but to have three fewer than Zack Greinke? Geez.

As for pitching, I’m surprised Sonny Gray hasn’t shown any signs of figuring it out.

Welcome to the weekly Tout Wars FAAB report, on its new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:20 PM ET to discuss the results.

You can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

With the caveat I’m 0-for-2 thinking the Tigers will give Ronny Rodriguez a decent look, third time could be a charm with the release of Dixon Machado. That said, at least recently, Detroit has seen fit to play journeyman outfielder Jim Adduci at first and designated hitter instead of Rodriguez. I guess a slash line of .338/.365/.558 isn’t enough to get time without the platoon edge in Motown.

Willians Astudillo is one of the most unique players in the league. In 500 plate appearances, he’ll put the ball on play 450 times with about 25 walks and 25 whiffs. Well, that was his minor league track record, it remains to be seen how this translates to the majors. Astudillo is a catcher by trade but can play all over, so far appearing at 2B, 3B, LF and CF for the Twins.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Brian Walton’s Commentary

It is no coincidence that I volunteered to take today’s National League Tout Wars recap. With almost two-thirds of my full-year FAAB remaining and more than half the season complete, I am in an unpleasant place – with not enough cash to win top interleague traded free agents.

This week, with two players having hit the disabled list, I had two open roster spots. My focus was the new co-leaders of the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies.

I beat out several other bidders for the services of reliever Victor Arano, paying $45. What caught my attention was the second of his two saves this past week, in a game in which manager Gabe Kapler used Seranthony Dominguez in the eighth. On the other hand, throwing money at presumed closers for the Phils is high risk, as eight pitchers have already logged saves for the club this season.

Infielder-outfielder Jesmuel Valentin has been seeing semi-regular time, even leading off. However, some of that is due to Cesar Hernandez’ sore foot, which is not bad enough to put him on the DL. On the positive side, Valentin qualifies and both second and third (and therefore middle and corner infield) as well as in the outfield. On the other hand, his .274 OBP this season to-date leaves a lot to be desired. I overpaid at $23 for Valentin.

The top bidder this week was Lord Zola, who added former Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo for $57. Back in the Padres’ rotation because he earned it with good work in Triple-A, the 25-year old right-hander has upped his strikeouts, but walks remain a problem – that and his 6.86 ERA this season through five starts.

Another notable winning bid was the $34 by SiriusXM’s Craig Mish for infielder Chase d’Arnaud of the Giants, just called up from Triple-A. With Joe Panik injured, it would appear that d’Arnaud will be competing with former Pirates prospect Alen Hanson for playing time at second. d’Arnaud, Travis’ brother, is 31 years old, having first reached the bigs in 2011. His career batting average is .223.

In other words, offensive difference-makers are not to be found on the waiver wire in this league.

Todd’s Take

Not only does Perdomo have two starts this week, he’s reportedly staying in the Padres rotation over the second half. Brian hit the key points, improving strikeouts with walks an issue. Better control is always a good thing, but it’s more crucial for extreme ground ball pitchers since seeing-eye grounders elevate WHIP. He obviously needs to display it at the MLB level, but if Perdomo can carry over his 2.1 BB/9 walk rate posted at Triple-A El Paso, I’ll be less peeved about spending an extra $50 to win this week’s bid.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Jeff Zimmerman’s Commentary

After looking over the potential free agents, there was no must adds for me this week. When James Shields ($41) was the second highest bid, the pickings were slim.

Here are my thoughts on a few pickups:

Matt Harvey (to Ron Shandler for $27): While his ERA has been better with the Reds than Mets (7.00 vs 3.79) his ERA estimators are nearly identical: 4.51 xFIP vs 4.46 xFIP and 4.63 SIERA vs 4.33 SIERA.

Danny Duffy (to Derek Van Riper for $22): I dropped Duffy last when faced with a roster crunch. I was, and still am, dying in ERA and WHIP so Duffy’s 4.3 BB/9 had to go. Goof luck DVR.

Corey Dickerson (to Scott Swanay for $8): I’m a little surprised there wasn’t more bidding on Dickerson but the lack of home runs (only 6) likely scared off some teams. Dickerson is a perfect player to hope for a second-half rebound.

Todd’s Take

I find in interesting most of the players were awarded without a losing bid. We’re just past the halfway point and most players could be won with a $1 bid. This really suggests being aggressive early, then bidding smartly later in the season.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Perry Van Hook’s Commentary

Just eight of the Touts bidding this week – mainly for slight upgrades/replacements. High bid was Rudy Gamble’s $27 for Giants SP Andrew Suarez who has a nice two start week. Suarez was my second choice (at a much cheaper price but I won Boston 1B/OF Steve Pearce for $4 as the Sox will face three LHSP next week so Pearce, a good OBP hitter should have starts in those games plus whatever other at bats he gets. After four dollar bids for Pearce and Suarez, I bid $0 on other choices, a ploy also used by Scott White to add three pitchers.

Todd’s Take

Suarez is one of the good first half stories. With Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija all missing time, Suarez gave the Giants innings. With Chris Stratton having issues lately, Suarez stays in the rotation while Stratton has been farmed.

Along with Perry’s sage Pearce pick-up, I like Rudy Gamble snagging Alen Hanson. Hanson has been playing nearly every day, but with Joe Panik out, Hanson should play even more. Better yet, he’s been leading off, assuring maximum number of at bats.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Is Jordan Zimmermann to be trusted? This recent stretch could just be a hot streak or he could have found something. With declining velocity, the veteran righty needs to figure out a way to get MLB hitters out. For Zimmermann, it’s increased usage of a slider that’s always been scored as his best pitch. I prefer velocity, but Zimmermann could continue some short term success. This type of change doesn’t always have staying power.

As ESPN’s injury analyst, Stephania Bell usually details other people’s pain. Last night, she inflicted some to the Tout Daily field, posting 176.25 points, the second highest individual total of the contest.

Stephania braved the weather warnings in Philly, sticking with Zach Eflin who came through with a sterling 7-inning performance. She didn’t fare so well with Shane Bieber, but the budget saved with arms enabled Stephania to assemble an array of sticks putting up double-digit points in all but one spot, missing going eight-for-eight by one point. Max Muncy and his two-homer night lead the way for the 2018 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame inductee. Check out Stephania’s lineup below.

Coming in second for the week was SI.com’s Michael Beller with Rotowire’s Derek VanRiper grabbing third. Justin Mason (bandwidth prohibits listing all his affiliations… oh , what the heck: Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fantasy Alarm, Fangraphs, Sleeper and Bust Podcast and FNTSY) leads Period 4 at the halfway point with VanRiper and Beller next in the race for the Period’s three Golden Tickets. Fantasy Alarm’s Rick Wolf continues to lead the pack for the wild card ticket with Todd Zola edging past Clay Link for the second most overall points. Here’s the Leaderboard.

Be sure to check out Tout Wars weekly content beginning with the comprehensive Tout Wars FAAB report every Sunday, then the Tout Table on Monday, our Tout Daily Picks on Tuesday with the Tout Daily Wrap every Wednesday.

Here’s Stephania’s roster: