Month: August 2022

There’s about one quarter of the season left to play. Roster decisions are always important, but there’s less margin for error as the season progresses. With that in mind, the Touts were asked:

How relevant is recent performance (past 7, 14 and 21 days) when making lineup decisions for fringier players? Are there any particular metrics more actionable than others?

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): For pitchers, it can matter a great deal if there are massive changes in their arsenal. Velocity, pitch usage, increased whiffs, etc. can all indicate a legitimate change has been made and can be incredibly actionable. For example, Reid Detmers’ increased slider usage since coming back from the minor leagues in July.

Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty): Particularly when talking about hitters, recent performance doesn’t hold any predictive value. The only thing it matters for is playing time. Particularly in deeper leagues where simply getting ABs has immense value, recent role is important, and good performance in that role (even if unsustainable) can lock in additional ABs going forward.

Seth Trachtman (NBC Sports Edge, @sethroto): There are small nuggets that can be drawn from recent performance, but overall, the most value from basic stats is simply plate appearances and pitcher roles (GS, holds, saves). More can be drawn from recent advanced stats like pitch velocity, pitch usage, etc.

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS): Recent performance matters with the younger players more as their lineup positions are more likely to get drastic improvement during the final six weeks of the season so I’m looking for guys who are hot and get them in the lineup before they get the lineup boost that puts them on everyone elses radar.

Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): Echoing Nick’s comment on placing a heavy emphasis on recent pitcher changes (pitch mix change, movement change, and velocity increases) and acting quickly on those. Reid Detmers is a perfect example. For hitters, the only “recent” metric I look at is plate appearances. Need to always have your thumb on which players are on the field in addition to platoon splits and batting order. I put almost zero stock in recent hitter performance–so much variance in that throughout a season. I prefer to look at rest-of-season projections for hitters instead.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Trying to fill a couple of holes for my AL-only league, recent ABs are critical to find someone who will play some (or play a lot) and who looks like they have a decent track record for possible success. Welcome to my team Mike Masey and Terrin Vavra. Similarly I have benched Jake Meyers as his games played have dwindled, and he just hasn’t hit as I had expected.

Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Basically ,any player being considered for my Roster is considered if they are slumping badly (I) 0 for 20 as an example ,yet still in the teams lineup Only a matter of time until the player hits In addition I try to get the backup to the player in a deep lg

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’m in lockstep with Derek C, with a bit of a subjective addendum. Matchups and history are easily the most relevant factors, but if a player is hitting the ball hard (harder than normal) even in a small sample, I gravitate towards the player. I know the success could be due to facing weak pitching, but hitting the ball hard is still the best way to success (contrary to some poor research I presented last summer). I won’t rely strictly on how hard a hitter is making recent contact, but it’s at minimum a tiebreaker, and sometimes used to take a flyer if I need lightning in a bottle. WIth pitching, I have (as have others) shown recent outings are telling, so I am more apt to go with a pitcher on a roll than a hitter on a perceived streak.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): I typically look at the past 28 days in general for most stats/trends. For pitchers, I tend to look at the past 3 starts worth of performaces. For hitters – to find some replacement players, I look at ABs over the past 14 days. Playing time is KING.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @FredZinkieMLB): I’ll look at surface stats (AVG, HR etc.) for the past 7-14 days. Not to evaluate skills, but because players who have been playing well are more likely to get their name on upcoming lineup cards. For pitchers, I’m looking at skills and not recent results.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Regarding Derek’s comment, one of the things I focus on all season is using actual scouting to separate out a few “truly hot” hitters from the noise. He’s absolutely right that at the population level, any kind of hot streak is meaningless noise. However, anyone who has played baseball also intuitively knows that there is such as thing as being “locked in.” Our statistical tools still do a poor job of recognizing it, but I can promise you nearly MLBer would tell you sometimes they’re hot/cold for real reasons and sometimes it’s just luck. The Moneyball reflex might be to dismiss the concept of “real hot streaks” because the statistical evidence is lacking. If the last 15 years of statistical development (and especially Statcast) have taught me anything, it’s that if baseball lifers say something is real and we can’t find it in data, it means our data probably isn’t good enough.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): In terms of actionable fantasy advice, the above just means to be skeptical of hot streaks. Assuming you aren’t personally scouting, you can still go after hot hitters on the chance they’re “true hot.” The projections are usually going to be more instructive than recent performance, but sometimes desperation calls for desperate maneuvers. As always, matchup quality is the #1 thing to follow when trying to squeeze real value out of marginal players.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I am only looking at usage and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle (typically) because the data sets we are talking about are so small (backwards and forwards).

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): I’m usually focused on playing time, although sometimes a round of stolen bases can be a little bit sticky because it might encourage the player to keep running. As for a batter’s production in a small sample, it’s mostly important in that it could protect playing time. As most of the room has said, it’s got little to no predictive value, but a hot stretch might at least insure someone’s immediate role with a team. With pitchers, I’m generally focusing on walks and strikeouts, as always, and putting an eye on the upcoming schedule.

Chris Clegg (Fantrax, @RotoClegg): When looking at hitters recent performance I think looking at basic stats can be useful. Playing time matters most, but a player is more likely to keep or gain more playing time if they are providing value to their teams in real life. OBP, runs, and RBI can help show some value they are providing to their team. But at the end of the day, playing time trends are what matter most. For pitchers I do think recent performance matters because pitching has a lot to do with mental state on the mound and recent strong performance can keep a pitcher in a good place mentally. As Nick said, arsenal changes are also a factor when looking at pitchers recent performances.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Recent performance over such a tiny sample is never relevant, regardless of the fringiness of the player. The only thing I might care about is a pitcher’s velocity — if it’s up recently and has led to a higher SwStk% and strikeout rate, then I would pay attention.

Tim Heaney (TheGameDay.com, @TeamHeaney): These splits are factors but will hardly tell the whole story. As the edict has been spewed out by many a fantasy tout, past stats only help you so much, if at all. We care about what’s to come. For batters, handedness and stadium in which they’ll hit play the most for me on the fringes. As for pitchers, facing lineups with high strikeout rates typically dictate streamer opportunities, depending on how deep I need to fish for useful arms.

Derek VanRiper (The Athletic, @DerekVanRiper): The volume of playing time, and even batting order locations matter to me in smaller samples, but the actual output is much less important due to the limited value it provides when slicing things into small segments. Within a smaller sample, I’m somewhat interested in seeing process-related numbers for hitters (i.e. hard-hit rate), but I try to limit how much I let performance during a small sample guide decision-making.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I agree with everyone above who said playing time matters more and I almost never make decisions on 7 or 14 day windows. However I do like to look at 30 day windows on occassion to isolate trends for pitchers and hitters. If I notice large changes I will dig deeper to see if pitch mixes have changed or maybe an individual hitter is pulling the ball more. I’m basically looking for anything that looks like a substantive change in a pitcher/hitters approach.

Doug Anderson (Fantrax, @rotodaddy): Projected playing time take precedence over recent results, but I also look at the upcoming schedule and see what ballparks players will be playing in and the pitching staffs they’ll be facing. I think that’s a better predictor of short term success than a player’s results over the last few weeks.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Very relevant. Players are streaky! Looking at season long stats, I wouldn’t play some guys like a Max Muncy. As Ron Shandler would say, once a player owns a stat, he’s got a good chance to repeat it. If players have a good history, and haven’t produced to that level, watch for them to get hot…..except for Bellinger!

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson): I want to pretend that I’m savvy enough as a player to avoid recency bias, but that would be a lie. It informs playing time, and that’s what matters when you’re looking at fringier players on the waiver wire. That’s especially true the deeper the league is – after all, these players that are available in AL Tout Wars are available because they are flawed players in the first place, so why not err in favor of playing time?

Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): I filter the free agent list each week by the last 14 or 21 days of stats. Not because these lists give me an idea of player talents, but because I’m always looking for at bats and innings pitched. There are pitfalls here. When a regular returns at bats for his sub dry up, but in deep leagues finding at bats often means finding value and there usually aren’t many choices. Identifying the best choices doesn’t always lead to success, an understatement, but keeps you in the game when someone does break out. And every once in a while someone does. Late in the season that’s what you’re looking for unless a top prospect arrives.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): For hitters, plate appearances, that’s it. For pitchers, 21 days includes 3-4 starts and several pitching metrics can restalize after 3 to 4 starts. I use it to compare to the full-season stats to see if there is a possible change in pitch mix or velocity.

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): I will echo the group and say that I’m primarily looking at playing time right now. Even if I believe in the skills of a player, it doesn’t matter if he’s playing only 3-4 times per week. That said, recent results do affect playing time on many teams, so it’s worth paying attention to whether a recent hot streak is leading to a more regular role.

Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): The later it gets into the season the more the most recent data matters. It is getting close to the end and for instance the H2H league I am in there are only three weeks left for the regular season. A hot streak can last a few weeks and help propel you into the playoffs whether it is a hitter or a pitcher. Conversely, if a guy is starting to tail off it could certainly be fatigue or the fact that their team might not be playing relevant baseball right now. Early in the year I don’t put much stock into the first few weeks, but at the end it matters very much

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I’m with the group: PAs and batting-order changes for hitters, SwStr and K%-bb% for pitchers, as a pointer to take a closer look at pitch-mixes and pitch-effectiveness changes.

Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): I concur with the group. For hitters, it is typically looking at recent playing time, batting order, and projected matchups (pitcher quality, ballparks). For starting pitchers, a recent hot streak supported by solid K/BB is a good sign of health and possible improvements. For relief pitchers, recent performance a good gauge for both health and role/usage.

Bret Sayre (Baseball Prospectus, @BretSayreBP): It’s rarely relevant after the trading deadline because the quality of competition being faced is all over the place. For lineup decisions in August and September, I like to look forward to matchups using a season-long, high-quality metric like DRC+/DRA as the baseline rather than look backwards at recent performance.

Vlad Sedler (FTNfantasy, @rotogut): Recent output is part of the equation but it’s always best to look under the hood at advanced metrics, lineup slot/team context (for hitters) as well.

It was a quality over quantity week in Tout Wars. There aren’t many bids, but there are some potential difference makers added.

To view the standings, rosters and moves of the Tout Leagues, just click on the header of each section.

American League

National League

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Head to Head

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Tout Wars has some of the top minds when it comes to following the minor leagues. This week we asked

What prospects had their short and long term outlooks change the most after the deadline deals?

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Maybe it is because I am a Reds homer, but I think the Reds will give Spencer Steer every chance to make the team in 2023 and that almost certainly would not have been the case in Minnesota. What Steer does with the opportunities, unknown, but it’s a real shot for him.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I like the Steer call out. Sticking with the Reds, Jose Barrero is just about out of time to make an impression in Cincy. Between Elly de la Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain, *somebody* is going to be knocking on the door by late 2023. And Edwin Arroyo isn’t too far behind them. It’s a real embarrassment of shortstop riches. These things have a way of working out over time. Barrero hasn’t shown much of a pulse this season.

Tim McLeod (Prospect361.com, @RunTMcP361 ): Search out players that were blocked prior to the deadline that no longer are. Three that I’m very bullish on for the stretch run are Michael Massey, Jake McCarthy, and Ryan Pepiot. Massey has demonstrated solid strike zone judgement with decent pop and speed at every level in the Minors. McCarthy slides into David Peralta’s spot and that speed could make a difference. Pepiot no longer has to worry about Mitch White and should slide into Clayton Kershaw’s rotation spot. His numbers down-on-the-farm are off-the-charts good. All that was missing was the opportunity and it’s now at-hand. As an add, I’d take a look at two Oakland starters in JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk. Montas is now a Yankee and there are more holes in the Oakland rotation than a block of swiss cheese. We could see both plying their trade in Oakland before the season concludes.

James Anderson (Rotowire, @RealJRAnderson): For me it’s the players who went from being pretty clearly blocked to unblocked. All the Yankees pitching prospects who were dealt now have a clearer path into a big-league rotation (I’d rank them Wesneski, Waldichuk, Sikemma, Sears). Additionally, the top two Twins position players (Encarnacion-Strand and Steer) who are nearing the majors now have a clear path into the Reds lineup when they’re deemed ready. Bonus: I liked Robert Gasser but like him even more now that the Brewers get to put the finishing touches on his development.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): You probably look at all the rated prospects who went from contenders to pretenders, because by definition the paths to the big leagues have fewer obstacles on the latter. For example, Logan O’Hoppe is obviously less blocked by Max Stassi and Kurt Suzuki than by JT Realmuto. Steer got a couple of mentions, , and that seems right; even if he’s blocked by Barrero (jury’s still out), he can play lots of spots defenisvely and the Reds need help at most of them. I saw mentions of pitchers Waldichuk (OAK) and Wesneski (CHC), both of whom also get a boost from the lack of obstacles en route to The Show. And don’t forget that the prospects below these guys in their orgs benefit from the departures, just as prospects on the acquiring teams might move down a peg or two.

Chris Blessing (Baseball HQ, @C_Blessing): When most prospects are traded at the deadline, their development outcome is negatively affected, moving from a winning organization excelling at developing their prospects to an organization that isn’t successful developing their prospects. Sometimes, the stars align and a prospect goes to an organization where the player and the development staff seem to be a match made in heaven. The match made in heaven scenario for me is LHP Robert Gasser to the Brewers. Here is an organization who has successfully molded pitchers of different shapes, different deliveries and different attributes and turned them into solid or better pitchers. Gasser has a deceptive Low 3/4s delivery with a lot of funky stops and starts. Gasser’s best when commanding his high-80s-to-low-90s FB up, taking advantage of a flatten plane and riding action up. Scouting Gasser, it’s a matter of improving his in-zone command, which the Brewers do better than most getting out of their prospects. Gasser goes from an SP5 upside to a mid-rotation ceiling simply moving to a better development situation for him.

Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): Ken Waldichuk probably stands a better long-term chance at success in Oakland than in New York, considering he’s a bit of a fly ball-oriented pitcher who gets a decent share of pop-ups, traits that fit the Oakland Coliseum much better than Yankee Stadium. C.J. Abrams almost assuredly will take over shortstop on an everyday basis in Washington sooner than he might have in San Diego, where it wasn’t entirely clear he’d stick at that position.

Joe Sheehan (The Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan): I think about the three guys the Yankees sent to the Royals, three middling pitching prospects with low profiles. They’re the kind of pitchers the Yankees have had great success with, and in their organization, they had a strong chance to be developed into, at least, MLB-caliber relievers. Now, they’re Royals prospects, about as far you can fall when it comes to modern practices of pitcher development. I think those three guys were the three biggest losers at the deadline.

After a couple weeks of emptying the FAB wallets, bidding was a bit more conservative, though NL only had some aggressive claims.

To see rosters, standings and all the moves from each Tout league, just click in the league header.

American League

National League

Mixed Salary Cap

Mixed Draft

Head to Head

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

As is the tradition in the Table following the trade deadline, the Touts were asked

What are some of the most fantasy-relevant under-the-radar repercussions of the deadline frenzy?

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): The Reds traded away several pieces so track who of Aristides Aquino, Matt Reynolds, Albert Almora Jr., Jake Fraley, and Donovan Solano grab the most playing time.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Single league formats have gotten away from hoarding for the deadline. I wonder if that may return after a decent level of crossover, with the notion it will continue with the new playoff format.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): To play devil’s advocate, I didn’t think there was much value in the league-switchers this year. Luis Castillo to the AL was maybe the only impact move, and if you passed on him last week hoping for something bigger, you ended up watching Juan Soto stay in the NL and Willson Contreras stay in Chicago. On the NL side, Jordan Montgomery, Noah Syndergaard and Jake Odorizzi? Meh. I’ll still continue to save my FAAB for the big splash in mono-league formats, but last year’s deadline was much more fun.

Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): In mixed leagues, the massive changes in closer values for some fantasy teams are disastrous. If you draft Iglesias in the third round, you are devastated right now (slowly raises hand.)

Matt Williams (TheGameDay.com, @MattWi77iams): Honestly, I think an under-the-radar takeaway is that no significant names (other than closers) change in value much. The real value is in vacated at-bats and available innings for lower end players. Time to study new lineups going forward and see who benefits.

Paul Sporer (Fangraphs, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Sporer): Given how barren waiver wires have been for SPs in deeper formats (14+ team mixers), JP Sears could be a gem down the stretch. While we’ve only seen an 8% SwStr in the majors, he missed bats w/his slider throughout the minors so I expect more Ks as he settles into the majors. OAK is always a great spot to pitch, too!

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Steve – Tyler Mahle should be a nice consolation for AL only. It isn’t so much the number of crossovers, as it is the sheer number of trades, more of which may be crossovers. That said, I am still spending liberally early, since the counter is more minor league players are being promoted earlier.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I’ll reach deep for the hell of it. Josh Palacios has an interesting, possibly five-category profile. It’s also a 0-2 WAR profile which is why he hasn’t had chances any sooner. With Juan Soto gone, he should play daily for the Nationals. Of course, that’s only of use to those of us in deep leagues.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I mean, I don’t know if this is underrated, but as someone who has Whit Merrifield in a couple of places, I am really hoping he gets that vaccination status cleared up before 8/12 when the Blue Jays play in Toronto. On the more underrated side, I am going to be paying a lot of attention to the Padres line ups in the coming days to keep an eye on Drury’s playing time. I’m looking for pitching in a few leauges, so I’m also going to speculate a bit on who will get the fifth starter spot in NY with Montgomery moving to St. Louis, and will be keeping an eye on starters in Oakland and Cincinatti looking for useful starters and/or guys with enough innings/Ks to be useful for the last couple of months.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Starting pitchers–gimme Jordan Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi in the NL and Tyler Mahle and J.P. Sears in the AL. Closers–gimme Felix Bautista and Jose Quijada in the AL and in the NL, I’m back on Anthony Bender and Rowan Wi . . . hahaha nope, can’t do it, sorry Sara. But hey, Willson stayed home!

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Under the radar = the minor leaguers that are going to get promoted and may immediately be handed a starting role. While the majority will be worth adding in mono leagues, some of them may even be worthy of consideration in shallower mixed leagues.

Alex Fast (Pitcher List, @AlexFast8): The closers! There is an assortment of relievers that just turned into closers that you can pick up off of your waiver wire. Thinking of guys like Felix Bautista, Ryan Tepera, Rowan Wick, etc. Don’t be fooled by what team they’re on, either; they’ll still get plenty of save opportunities. Focus more on guys who have the best stuff and you’ll be just fine.

Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Dont save FAAB for Trading Deadline

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Doug D nailed it, but in particular pay attention to the Nationals. Someone(s) is/are going to get plenty of playing time over the next several weeks.

Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): The carousel of closers continues to spin at the trade deadline. An already volatile category opens up more options for saves with teams trading closers that may not have opportunities to save games on their new teams. Obviously the teams trading away their closers will give chances to set-up relievers that may be on the waiver wire. Also for NL-only or AL-only leagues, there could be bidding wars for players newly eligible that were traded.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): Lots of playing time has opened up for teams like the Reds, Nationals and A’s but I am paying attention to the A’s starting staff. Ken Waldichuk is now the team’s top rated prospect. For the Yankees AAA team he averaged 13.22 K/9 with a 3.59 ERA. I’d love to see him get a few starts for the A’s.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): Always look at closing situations. Tepera in LAA? Wick in CHI? Bautista in BAL? Williams in MIL? etc. As for some other under the radar players … Mickey Moniak should get playing time with the Marsh trade and Trout injury right away. JP Sears should start right away in OAK in place of the traded Montas. The best place for value is in increased playing time, and those are likely right off the bat.

Scott White (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CBSScottWhite): Statcast says that if Trey Mancini had played all his games at Minute Maid Park this year, he’d have 22 home runs as opposed to the 10 he actually has. The difference between the newly altered left field fence in Baltimore and the Crawford Boxes in Houston is literally dozens of feet, plural. As usual, the Astros know what they’re doing.

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): The Astros still believe in Jake Meyers. Traded away Straw to clear space for him last year; Meyers was surprisingly fantasy relevant down the stretch. Despite Meyers’ slow return from injury, HOU didn’t complete any sort of upgrade in CF this year and even traded away Jose Siri. Might be nothing; might be something.

Jennifer Piacenti (SI.com, @jenpiacenti): Sadly, Brent. I think it’s nothing. Though maybe that’s just the pessimistic fan in me. I hope it’s something! I like the Mancini grab for Houston as today we already saw one leave the yard that wouldn’t have in Camden. Brantley isn’t even swinging a bat, so I think Mancini will also get turns in OF with perhaps Tucker moving to CF like he did in postseason. I also like Jordan Montogmery in St. Louis. Let’s be real: most pitchers are better after leaving Yankee Stadium. Devin Williams is now really interesting, and I’m going to say it: I like Eric Hosmer in Boston.

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): Jose Siri is going to get all the playing time his bat can handle. They need his defensive abilities in center, and Cash will let him run on the bases if Siri can manage to get on base. He could steal 10 bases ROS and is already hitting in the middle of a thin lineup.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Obviously there are closers to be had with others traded away, so you can get 10 saves fairly easily if you’ve saved some faab or get lucky on the waiver wire…Bautista in Baltimore, Wick in Chicago, in LAA someone emerge, etc. remember what Lester and Happ did in St. Louis last year? Quintana and Montgomery will be better than they were last year, leading Cards to Central Division Championship

Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): Not enough focus on who was not traded but now has a bigger role. Closers are more obvious when they step in for a departed closer. It is so critically important to watch lineups from Thursday to Sunday — days where players traveling to their new teams or up from the minors are all in place.

Frank Stampfl (Fantasy Pros, @Roto_Frank): I’m very intrigued by the Royals calling up prospect Michael Massey after trading away Whit Merrifield. Massey was batting .312 with 16 HR and 13 steals across 87 games between Double-A and Triple-A this season and could be an interesting power-speed combo in deeper leagues.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): If you’re desperate for Wins (and who isn’t), I think Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, who both get to face 3 NL Central doormat teams, are appealing targets who probably wouldn’t cost a ton to acquire.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): Miguel Vargas’ addition to the Dodgers. They selected his contract — added him to the 40-man — to lengthen the lineup, as they are now feeling the heat a bit from the Padres. The back of the Dodgers’ order is a little thin and could leave them susceptible to the Padres in the postseason, so I think they want Vargas to take the job and run with it and get into a groove before the playoffs.

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): In deeper leagues, I’m curious what Tucker Davidson does with his opportunity in Los Angeles as a regular starter. He’s been able to find a rhythm during his chances in Atlanta and there could be some sneaky streams to be had.

Brian Entrekin (Benched with Bubba, @bdentrek): Seeing the closing landscape open up some more solid options. Felix Bautista & Devin Williams could be elite. Rowan Wick may get some chances as well as maybe Ryan Tepera. On the flip side seeing Raisel Iglesias’s value disappear.

Derek VanRiper (The Athletic, @DerekVanRiper): Can Josh Palacios be the Rafael Ortega of 2022?

Shelly Verougstraete (Dynasty Guru, @ShellyV_643): Is Zach McKinstry going to cut into Christopher Morel’s playing time? I’m in agreement with Frank. Michael Massey dealt with injuries since being drafted but was destroying the minor leagues before his call up. There is pleny of PT in KC with Whit out of the picture.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): The trading of Trey Mancini from Baltimore to Houston was very intriguing to me. Mancini needed a change in scenery and so far it appears that Houston is a good fit. Trey Mancini’s first three hits with the team since arriving at the MLB Trade Deadline have all been home runs, including a monster grand slam on Friday night.

Greg Jewett (Fantasy Alarm, @gjewett9): Many save situations went through turnovers in their leverage ladders, Félix Bautista and Devin Williams receive a big boost in fantasy value. However, Ian Kennedy, Erik Swanson, Rowan Wick and Jonathan Hernández also could receive ancillary, or larger save shares. Last, maybe Colorado provides Elehuris Montero a clear path towards plate appearances the rest of the season. Trusting the Rockies with doing the right thing comes with inherent risk, but there’s some power potential for those needing it in his bat.

It took a while to get going, but the deadline frenzy availed some useful crossover players for AL and NL only along with shuffling rosters enough so there were some mixed league repercussions as well.

If you want to check out the complete standings, rosters and transactions for any of the Tout leagues, just click in the league header.

American League

National League

Mixed Salary Cap

Mixed Draft

Head to Head

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

As we all prepare for the trade frenzy, the Touts were asked:

Who has the best chance of reverting to form, Lucas Giolito, Jose Berrios or Trevor Rogers?

(Please note, the question was posed prior to Rogers being placed on the IL)

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS): Lucas Giolito has the best chance to reverting to form mostly because his bad raw stats right now are thanks to a ton of bad BABIP luck (.349). Once that starts to turn around, he’ll have fewer runners on base which will help the walk rate and improve the strand rate. His xFIP right now is basically identical to 2021 (3.76 in 2022 vs 3.75 in 2021) so should be optimistic he turns it around soon.

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): It’s definitely not Trevor Rogers for me – he hasn’t had his changeup and slider working consistently since the start of last year – and it’s close between Lucas Giolito and José Berríos. The latter has been improving over the last month with his curveball and Berríos often finds a way to normalize across a full season. Meanwhile Giolito has now gone three starts hovering 92 mph. Without that strong fastball, Giolito’s struggles are likely to continue as it sets the foundation for his elite changeup.

Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): Giolito

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @FredZinkieMLB): Most are saying Giolito, so I will go in a different direction and take Berrios, who may have already started to turn things around by posting a 3.41 ERA and a 36:6 K:BB ratio in five July starts. That feels pretty much like what we expected of the right-hander at the start of the season.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball, @): I would say Giolito is the best bet. He will have both good games and some not so good for the rest of the season but the upside is also the highest of the three

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): I’ll say Berrios. He has the skill set to rebound and has had some flashes of dominance recently. Working against him is the schedule and a heavy does of hitter heavy AL East teams.

Scott White (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CBSScottWhite): It kind of seems like Berrios already has with his strong month of July, so I’ll say him. I’m on the fence about Giolito. His xFIP is about the same as last year and his K/9 remains high, but his velocity, spin and whiffs are all down a bit. Those are generally the markers I look at when judging whether a pitcher has declined. As for Rogers, he turned back into a pumpkin even before the end of last year. We were basing a lot on three incredible months that are now far in the rearview mirror. I’ve been dumping him for 50 cents on the dollar even in dynasty leagues.

Seth Trachtman (NBC Sports Edge, @sethroto): Trevor Rogers still looks lost with his control, so this debate comes down to Giolito vs. Berrios. The peripherals show likely improvement for both pitchers, but the White Sox extremely favorable schedule the rest of the way gives Giolito a better chance to get on track. Giolito lines up against the likes of KC, Texas, and Detroit over his next three outings, and it’s hard to imagine an easier schedule than what the White Sox face in September. The team has a heavy dose of weak AL Central matchups, along with Oakland and Colorado (at home) sprinkled in. This seems like an obvious point, but Giolito’s ERA is nearly two runs better (4.20) with an 11.5 K/9 in games vs. sub-.500 teams this season. With the smaller sample size, schedule matters.

Eric Cross (Fantrax, @EricCross04): Can I say none? I’m fairly confident that we’ve probably seen the best season for each of these arms, but I do think that Giolito and Berrios are better than what they’ve shown. With Berrios, he was just always a bit overrated and now has to deal with the robust American League East on a regular basis. Many of Gioloto’s ERA indicators are much better than his surface stats, so he’s my pick here I suppose.

Vlad Sedler (FTNfantasy, @rotogut): Nice grouping here because the easy answer would be “trust none of them”. If I had to pick one to have the strongest rest-of-season, it would be Berrios. Strikeouts have been a boon and he’s cut his barrel rate in half lately (6% over his last six starts, 12.6% over his first 14 starts.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I’ll WAG Rogers since his issues seem to be mostly mechanical. Echoing sentiments from others, I wouldn’t bother trying to buy low on any of them.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): Solely on a wishful-thinking basis, I’ll say Berrios

Dr. Roto (DrRoto.com, @DrRoto): Torn here, so I will cop out and say both Giolito and Berrios will revert to form and Rogers will continue to struggle.

Paul Sporer (Fangraphs, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Sporer): I’ll go Berrios as he’s shown more glimpses of his good self than the other two this year and has a longer history of success, too.

Alex Chamberlain (Rotographs, @DolphHauldhagen): Didn’t expect to say Berríos, but, Berríos, primarily because Rogers and Giolito are having pitch shape issues (CH and SL, respectively), whereas Berríos’ specs are largely unchanged. Not that pitch shapes are the be-all/end-all, but it helps explain why those pitches—and, thus, those pitchers—haven’t been successful. The question doesn’t specify reverting to form within 2022 or, like, ever, and I don’t think it’s off the table that Rogers and Gio find their CH and SL again. But I think Berríos has less to claw back this year than they do.

Jock Thompson (Baseball HQ, @JOCKatHQ): We’re in ride-the-hot-hand territory entering August. That would be Berrios.

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): If not for his last two starts, it would easily be Giolito. He still has the most upside but also the most risk. Berrios is the safest bet right now, but at a lower ceiling. Rogers’ ceiling is pretty much the floor for everyone else. PQS logs rule.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): My ego says Giolito because I couldn’t possibly have picked a guy this crappy to win the Cy Young this year, but I’ll be sensible and lean Berrios who has, at least, flashed some talent this year.

Matt Williams (TheGameDay.com, @MattWi77iams): Berrios seems to not only have less issues to work through than the others, but already seems to have turned a corner in July. So I will go with Jose Berrios.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Not Rogers, probably not Giolito, since he’s been more of an innings eater of late. Berrios actually has been pretty good over the last month.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I think I’m most optimistic about Giolito. He has the highest K%, lowest BB% and the best FIP/xFIP of the three. That said, I also think Berrios is probably going to be better rest of season and just picked him up in the 12-team mixed league where I need innings. I am not as optimistic about Rogers.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Rogers is on the IL with back spasms now so I rescind my WAG. Let’s say Berrios. Tough schedule though… I still prefer none of them.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Giolito’s SIERA is a run and a half below his actual ERA, as he’s been BABIP’d to death. That can’t continue for much longer, especially given his history. He’s the easy call between the three, even though Berrios’ SIERA is also significantly below his ERA. However, Berrios’ strikeout rate has tumbled, so even an improved ERA could still result in disappointing fantasy value versus pre-season expectations.

Frank Stampfl (Fantasy Pros, @Roto_Frank): I have legitimate concerns over both Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios but I think it’s more likely Berrios returns to form this season. He mostly looks like himself, albeit allowing a bunch of hard contact with a reduced swinging strike rate. Giolito just has so many things working against him right now from a velo dip to lack of control to home runs allowed. I almost wonder if Giolito isn’t right physically this season.

Zach Steinhorn (CreativeSports2, @zachsteinhorn): Maybe I’m biased because he’s on three of my teams and I’m desperately rooting for him to revert to form but I’ll say Berrios. The WHIP is still problematic but he’s pitching much better lately, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his last five starts with 36 strikeouts in 29 innings. With Berrios, at least we’re seeing clear signs of improvement. The same cannot be said for Giolito and Rogers.

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): Give me Berrios, who has at least been showing some positive signs of late. With only two months left in the regular season, time is running out for a turnaround, so I’ll take the guy who has already been delivering some positive value over his last handful of starts.

Joe Sheehan (The Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan): Rogers is the easy “no,” given that he has the shortest track record and there were mild indications that last year was a peak. Between the other two…I’ll take Berrios, because he’s already well on his way. 3.41 ERA/3.15 FIP in July, six QS in his last ten, and a seventh that missed by an out. I’ll bet on that for the next two months.

Greg Jewett (Fantasy Alarm, @gjewett9): Even before the start against the Tigers, I leaned towards Berrios on this one. Trust the Blue Jays getting him on track for the second half and helping fuel a strong push in the playoffs. Rogers landing on the injured list makes him the easy pass in this question and after having Giolito on multiple rosters last year, he was an avoid this season. This remains true.

Brian Entrekin (Benched with Bubba, @bdentrek): This is a tricky one. I lean Berrios who has shown signs of life of late, especially at home. The strikeouts have improved and he is keeping the ball in the ballpark. Can’t say the same for Giolito who struggles to get through five everyday and Rogers is so broken he is now on the IL. Give me Berrios, but it does not feel great.