This week’s query:
In keeper leagues, how do you like to assemble your freeze list? Are there certain types of players you prefer, or avoid?
Mike Alexander (Razzball, @Roto_Wan): When prioritizing keepers I’m usually weighting upside the most. These are players you’re getting a discount on, so it makes sense to take on more risk. That typically means younger names.
Rick Wolf (SiriusXM Fantasy, @RickWolf1): When selecting the guys to keep, I look at the scoring system, scarcity, age, projected value and pro team. If the player pool that year is scarce at a position and I am deciding between two players that are close in projected value, age and both on good teams, then we select the scarce position within the pool. For full disclosure, I don’t play in any mixed keeper leagues, all mine are AL only. For mixed leagues in the past, I handle the keepers straight up. Select the players who would score the highest points or roto value coupled with the most upside (age and career trajectory).
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I want undervalued players (of course), and more than that want as many young bats as I can get who fill the stat sheet. I typically don’t love pitchers as keepers unless they are very, very cheap versus value because the results fluctuate a lot more with rate stats and wins and then the injury risk is often higher with pitchers as well.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I only played in a keeper league for a couple of years, but it’s all about profit. Assuming my most profitable players qualify at a variety of positions (not all pitchers or outfielders), then it’s almost certainly just ordering players by expected profit (projected dollar value vs salary). While it’s not a perfect correlation between dollar value amassed and standings points, the name of the game is still to build the most profitable team. The best way to do that is by starting your squad with your most undervalued players as keepers.
Alex Chamberlain (FanGraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): I will articulate instead what I try not to do (but don’t always succeed): I try not to keep players whose salaries are lower than their market values (i.e., AAV or salary-equivalent ADP) that I am otherwise fading in redraft leagues. If there’s a little voice telling you not to draft this guy in redraft leagues, it’s probably a good enough reason to not keep him in a keeper league, even if he is a “good price.” I definitely have been swayed by the groupthink of market value into keeping someone I didn’t necessarily like, and more often than not I have paid the price. Keep guys that you do like who have salaries significantly lower than their projected value—or significantly lower than their market value, even if the market value outstrips the projected value. (That is, if you know everyone is going to bid up a hype guy, but you still want that hype guy, you should just keep him, even if there is not significant surplus to glean.)
Peter Kreutzer (Rotoman.substack.com, @kroyte): 1) Whether a player is a fair keeper or not is determined by his freeze price compared to his draft price plus inflation. So, a fair $20 keeper price in a league with 20-percent inflation is below $24. Heeding this calculation should help you determine your best keeps (the one’s with biggest discount), help you avoid keeping players you should throw back, and if the pickin’s are slim help you find minor bargains to round out your list. 2) The other important thing with keepers is planning for them. When you’re filling out your roster in the endgame, prioritize guys who are better bets to shine in two years than necessarily ready this year, over old guys scrambling for jobs. Actually, there’s probably room for both, but the art of keepers is often found in the planning and thinking ahead.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @): A lot depends on if I’m going for it this year (I usually am) or playing for next year. If I’m playing for next year, I’m focused on value and balance, in that order. I don’t mind getting multiple shortstops or closers on the cheap, but don’t want to overload. If I’m playing for this year, I don’t focus much on freezes until the offseason. In that case, I’m usually looking at value but also making sure not to forget inflation. One mistake teams make is getting nothing BUT mild or moderately undervalued players and then having way too much to spend in a moderate or high inflation environment. I’ve seen so many teams lose this way, especially if some of their young upside players don’t work out.
Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): League context / dynamics always matters to me, also. In one long-term league I participate in, I have learned that I can avoid the situation MikeG warns about above (keeping ONLY moderately undervalued guys; then having “too much” money to spend on not enough talent) by going ahead and keeping the elite superstar player who is highly, or even excessively, priced. I only do this for the best of the best, the well-rounded categorical superstars, but I’ve found that a tact like that can give me a foundational player to build around during the draft and the season, searching for the multiple undervalued complements rather than having those players fill up my keeper list.
Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): To the context point, one league in which some of us play has a lower annual salary escalation price for players originally acquired as minor leaguers compared to ones acquired once they reach the majors. That swings the appeal pendulum toward these former farm player keepers as they have a financial advantage annually. Also, as already mentioned, when everything else is equal, hitters seem better long-term bets than pitchers.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): My approach is different in a single AL/NL only league (or mixed with at least 16 teams) compared to a mixed league with 15 or fewer teams. In the only leagues, I don’t like speculative keepers. I love it when others focus on the cheap injured players from the previous season. Sometimes I miss out, but more often, I benefit. I also don’t mind protecting salary; it’s not all about built in profit from keepers, but also what you can extract from the auction. I get the hitters are better keepers than pitchers mantra, but you still need to draft pitching (and in a keeper league, likely trade for it), so if there is a keeper arm at a good price, sign me up. In mixed leagues, I may be a little looser with the speculative keepers, but I still prefer solid, proven talent and then I’ll take my chances at the draft. In the shallow mixed leagues, I don’t like keeping a player under $5, even if they’re projected to earn a profit (unless it’s a double-digit profit). Even in a league with inflation, there are going to be huge bargains in the end game, and the opportunity cost of keeping a $3 guy projected to earn $7 (or whatever) is too much to lock up the spot. I can draft a similar player, often with a greater profit potential. On the other hand, since the endgame in the only leagues is so different, I’ll keep a cheap guy even if he projects to just break even.
Joe Orrico (Fantasy Pros, @JoeOrrico99): Generally speaking, I like to look about three years into the future when setting keeper lists. That usually means I’ll just end up keeping the best available players to me, but age definitely plays a role. Once a player gets to the age 33/34 range, they have to be pretty special to remain a keeper. As for the young guys (specifically prospects) I need to be able to project really excellent production over the next few seasons to even consider keeping them over established players (Jackson Holliday, for example). Price also comes into play but overall, I end up keeping my best 3/4/5 players outside of some extreme circumstances
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru, @TheRayFlowers): I think nuance is key here. How many do we keep? How long can we keep them? What is the yearly inflation? We are often seduced by the power of the dark side – the what could be – versus the known (this usually shows itself in our desire to roster younger players at bargain basement prices). We want to focus on players that can be had below cost, but at the same time, you still need the production, so if you pay full price, and get top end production, I’m never going to be against that.
Ian Kahn (, @IanKahn4): I lean heavily towards younger bats on low contracts. Each keeper spot holds so much value. If I have a veteran pitcher I can keep who was bought cheaply coming off of injury, there is upside, but otherwise I am always building for the future with these valued spots. Also, the young bats are great trade capital.
Matt Cederholm (Baseball HQ, @TheBigHurtHQ): Obviously, we keep “bargains,” but I don’t like to keep players whose projected value is under $10 even if they are a “bargain.” Even in expert leagues, there are usually a bunch of players who go cheap in the endgame. I also don’t mind keeping studs that are at their inflated value. One challenge I frequently find is having a lot of money for few spots. When that happens, it can be a challenge just spending your full budget without overspending on players. I do pay for upside or future value, but judiciously. $5 for Joey Ortiz? Sure. $20 for Junior Caminero? No thank you.
JB Branson (Rotoballer, @RowdyRotoJB): It’s all about value for me. I use a formula that I created for all the managers in my old keeper league that takes into many factors like age, previous stats, projections next year, positional value, and of course the cost of keeping them. It all comes down to opportunity cost. Is the leftover player pool that you could draft in the early rounds closer in value to your early round keeper options compared to the gap in your late round keeper options who might not be as studly versus the late round player pool? Knowing your league, possible player pool, and your drafting abilities makes these decisions much easier but again I’m always looking for maximum value for every draft pick. (https://www.rotoballer.com/2022-keeper-value-rankings-top-150-overall/1001841) – Here’s an old example. As you can see some top tier guys were still top value picks even with an early round cost, but a lot of the top tier scores were finding rising studs with later round costs.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): It all depends on the number of years that I get to keep the player, and at what cost or what draft round I would have to keep them in. All things being equal, I tend to keep my least replaceable players. I never pay for saves, so I tend to throw closers back into the pool. I do value hitters over pitchers. If there is a prospect or a player coming back from injury that is a deep discount to value ratio, I may keep them, based on salary cap.
Dave Adler (Baseball HQ, @daveadler01): I try to avoid over-valuing highly rated minor league SP, even if they are on cheap contracts. The learning curve is often rough; for every Paul Skenes, there are numerous Forrest Whitleys. Of course, I continue to fall into the trap (cough Rickey Tiedemann cough). Young, up-and-coming hitters, not as many worries, although they occasionally struggle as well. Other than that, priority goes to guys with positive indicators, particularly those who have the opportunity to see more AB/IP in the coming year(s).
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): It’s been a while, but I’m pretty mechanistic about it. I get a good solid projection of dollar value for the coming year, then calculate the projected profit in each coming year of the keeper contract, using an aging curve to predict value in future seasons. Then I add the projected profit (value-salary) back to projected value, stack-rank all players most-to-least, then keep as many as I’m allowed starting at the top and working down. I’ll eyeball the resulting list to see if there’s anything that just “feels wrong” and give it another look, but basically, that’s it. Like I said, pretty mechanistic.
Zach Steinhorn (Steinhorn’s Universe on Substack, @zachsteinhorn): Keeper cost is the most important factor but when the costs are similar, I’ll usually keep the hitter over the pitcher as hitter performance tends to be more predictable from year to year. I generally try to avoid players with extensive injury histories, and I pay some attention to position. If I can only keep five, I’m not going to choose four outfielders or three starting pitchers.
Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): I tend to be the happiest when I manage to keep a handful of players who are worth $6-$10 for only a buck or two. (If your league lets you keep players at their waiver price, keep an eye out for that sort of player coming back from injury in late September, as they can make great keepers.) Ideally, I can pair those guys with some expensive stars, but if not, I’ll have the money to pay for stars in the auction. I don’t love keeping many mid-tier players at full price if I can help it. I’d rather keep a worse player for much cheaper and have more money to play with.
Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): I have been burned too many times over the years by keeping pitchers who ultimately get injured. I can’t say I won’t keep a pitcher going forward, but I am certainly heading in a direction where I might be willing to just keep hitters and take my chances on pitching during the draft. It is quite frustrating because I bave worked to build a solid, young foundation for my pitching staff only to have it blow up in my face. For hitters, of course younger players are preferable, but I am also looking for which players are on the upswing and appear to be at least improving. Even if it is not a long-term keeper, I want to focus on players who will be in good situations the following year for a reasonable price. Position eligibility does not play a factor for me because if I have 3 outfielders worthy of keeping, I will choose them rather than settle on a lesser valuable player.
Eric Cross (Rotoballer, @EricCross04): With any sort of keeper league, I lean even more heavily to bats over arms due to the increased stability. Positions also don’t play as much of a factor. If two players are close, I’ll factor position in, but only when it’s close. Trades can always be made to address any areas of need after your draft and/or keeper deadline.
Jason Collette (Rotowire, @): It’s all about projected return on investment for me. When in doubt, keep the hitter over the pitcher, and if a player is close to value, better off throwing him back to see if you can save even a buck or two in the draft.
Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): Total upside is good, but I tend to play keeper leagues on a two-year cycle with a “go for it” year and a “dump” year, with an eye going for it if the cards put me in striking distance (20 points out at mid-season is far from impossible especially if you play in a semi-aggressive keeper league, so I do give a little more weight at times to players who are closer to contributing than the deep dynasty picks. I focus on them as trade acquisitions in seasons where they may be two seasons away and could help the next time I cycle up to go for it.
Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): Given the general consistency from year to year I definitely go for more hitters over pitchers, I think we saw why right at the start of the season. How great would you have felt with Eury Perez and Spencer Strider coming into drafts to see them barely pitch at all. I also love to try to keep guys at positions that aren’t deep as I can fill my team with players from deeper positions during the draft the next year while league mates are picking lesser guys trying to fill tough spots. It is always a tightrope to walk every year though for who will keep it together in the future
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): In Keeper formats, I always look for value as well as age. Find the gap between the value the player would be drafted and the keeper round or auction cost. For example, Pete Alonso was a keeper for me since his rookie year with costs starting into the $20s and this year up to the $40s based on league rules. Next year he will be over $50 which is why I traded him mid-year for more cost-efficient players.
Eric Samulski (Rotoballer, @SamskiNYC): With keeper leagues, I always lean towards having more hitters as keepers than pitchers because I feel like there are always pictures who emerge as late round value or waiver wire pickups in the early going. I obviously lean towards upside, but I’m always trying to make sure I’m getting the most value, based on either keeper round or keeper dollar amount. I also try to diversify the categories that I’m keeping, ensuring that I start the year with some value across all categories, and I try to ensure I’m not only keeping young rookies with upside but also have some established veterans so it’s not all risk.
Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano): I also prefer to prioritize hitters over pitchers in keeper leagues but mostly because I’m usually risk adverse and pitcher’s injuries are a big concern for me. Of course, if there’s a good deal, I’ll go for it but most of the time I’ll be hunting pitchers from the draft or waiver later on.
Joe Gallina (Fantasy Alarm, @joegallina): I play in an Ottoneu keeper style league which has a hard overall salary cap and an arbitration period where league mates can add extra dollars to your top individual players salary and that forces you to turnover a chunk of your roster every year so I usually have 8 to 10 combined hitters and pitchers (guys like Judge and Acuna and even a pitcher like Cease) as my anchors and then I fill the rest of my roster with value plays. I tend to spend more on offense than pitching because there obviously seems to be more volatility among pitchers and I feel that I can find good pitchers throughout the season on the wire.
Kev Mahserejian (Fox Sports, @RotoSurgeon): My home league is a Keep 3 and the best bets are usually guys who I can keep the cheapest that provide the most value for the impending season. Keepers in this league have expiration limits so younger is not always better. For example, I could have kept Junior Caminero heading into this season but what good is a player with massive upside who is not even up yet?
