The Tout Wars NL Race. Is It Over?

Here’s the first thing you need to know: In the Tout NL draft-day standings, those are the rosters each team left the draft with and no moves since, Mike Gianella would be ahead of Derek Carty at this point, 83 to 80.

In fact, in the real Tout world, where teams FAAB players weekly, and make trades, Gianella leads three-time champ Tristan Cockcroft, 92.5 to 81.5. Not only did Gianella have the best auction, but he seems to have had one of the best seasons, too. He’s gained 9.5 points over his draft, while Cockcroft has gained nine.

How much of a chance does Cockcroft have to catch up to Gianella? I toted up their potential positive and negative points, the volatility index, to see how much overlap there is between them. This is fairly easy in the counting categories, but harder in the qualitatives, where there are more moving pieces. So, there is some chance either team call fall outside this range, but this should give a fair idea of the possibilities of where they will end up.

Mike Gianella could gain or lose 4.5 points, which puts him between 97 and 88 points.

Tristan Cockcroft could gain 7.5 points or lose 8.5, which puts him between 89 and 73 points.

The chance for a fourpeat is still alive, but just barely. Is it over? Yes, you can put the YooHoo on ice.