Author: admin

Do breakouts help?

I just posted a story on the Askrotoman.com blog called The Overachievers (or are they?): What to expect from the first half’s most surprising hitters. It occurs to me that maybe we would learn something by looking at who drafted the year’s monster offensive profit generators and see where they are in the standings:

The Top 12 Hitters By Profit, Their Cost, The Drafting Team, Its Place In The Standings

Jean Segura, 15, Steve Gardner, 4th
Chris Davis, 20, Wolf/Colton, 2nd
Josh Donaldson, 10, Jason Collette, 7th
Nate McLouth, 3, Andy Behrens, 11th
Everth Cabrera, 17, Scott Wilderman, 12th
Daniel Nava, R, Larry Schechter, 1st
Manny Machado, 14, Joe Sheehan, 4th
Domonic Brown, 15, Phil Hertz, 3rd
Matt Carpenter, 14, Steve Gardner, 4th
James Loney, 7, Wolf Colton, 2nd
Yasiel Puig, 1, Lenny Melnick, 10th
Carlos Gomez, 25, Tristan Cockcroft, 1st

One thing for sure is that it’s good to have two of these guys.

Tout NL Trade: Elite Pitcher for Elite Hitter

THE WHAT

Peter Kreutzer trades Cliff Lee to Tristan Cockcroft
Tristan Cockcroft trades Jay Bruce to Peter Kreutzer

THE WHY

I (Kreutzer) drafted a team of starting pitching, with Lee, Greinke, Minor and Lynn. I bought hitters but made a fatal gaffe paying $8 for Dee Gordon. His subsequent demotion left a sizeable hole in the lineup, one exacerbated by an early injury to Ryan Zimmerman and a more recent one to Angel Pagan. Plus, until Ryan Sweeney’s recent explosion, none of the flyers I added on draft day or on waivers have paid off on offense. This is a team that needed another big hitter.

Cockcroft, the league’s 2012 winner, has a commanding lead in HR and RBI thanks to explosive seasons from Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Gomez, but despite excellent ERA and WHIP it is middle of the pack in Wins and Strikeouts. Adding an elite pitcher should bring up both cats.

WHAT HAPPENED

I was trying to figure out how to make a trade with some of the teams that are strong in hitting but weak in pitching, when Tristan sent out a note to the league offering a hitter for a pitcher. I offered him Lee for Bruce (better for me than anything else I could find) or Lynn for Howard (lesser impact, lesser risk). I contemplated offering the troubled Greinke for the troubled BJ Upton, but felt Greinke was too big a price to pay to take on the Upton risk (even though Greinke carries similar risk). Call that handicapping.

Tristan got back to me after a bit, saying he’d do Bruce for Lee, but would add his Pettibon for my Matt Adams if I wanted to mitigate the pitching hit some. I did not, I’m looking for offense and if a spot opened in St. Louis Adams could be a big help, so we went with the simple one for one deal.

ANALYSIS

My hope is that my recent acquisition of Roy Oswalt and the rejuvenation of Chris Capuano, plus my sizeable (six over third place) cushion in Wins, means that giving up Lee doesn’t cost me too many qualitative and K points. The return of a healthy Marco Estrada would help here, too, I dream. Meanwhile, Jay Bruce should gain me a few points in HR and a couple more in RBI, and more importantly get me into position where another hitting add via FAAB or reserves might make a big difference (and a handful more points). As it stands right now, I have the most FAAB money.

Deducting Bruce’s stats from Tristan’s HR and RBI totals would cost him one point total at this point (though some more in Runs), so giving him up is almost like free money. He was nine wins and eight strikeouts behind me in pitching, however, so I’m going to lose there, but Tristan was sure to make a trade with someone, so those points were likely gone anyway.

The bottom line, we both shore up a weakness and balance our teams a bit. I have more upside and downside at this point. while Tristen secures his position in first place and should be much harder for everyone to catch.

A Tout Wars Mixed Auction Trade (an insider’s opinion): June 24, 2013

puig_yasiel640By Paul Singman

Here’s the deal:

Seth Tractman gets:
Yasiel Puig LAD from Paul Singman
Edward Muijica STL from Paul Singman
A.J. Burnett (DL) PIT from Paul Singman

Paul Singman gets:
Gio Gonzalez WSH from Seth Tractman
Troy Tulowitzki (DL) from Seth tractman

Why?

Because why not? As a participating member of this deal, of course I think that the effects are huge. But even evaluating objectively, you can’t ignore the number of impact players involved, who also happen be some of the most polarizing names in the game. Quite easily this trade could end up a major win for either Seth or myself, given all of the risk involved.

On the surface I (Singman) get an upgrade to my rotation in Gio Gonzalez. Even though I am strong in ERA and WHIP (13 points in each), my two weakest categories are wins and strikeouts (8 points in each). Adding Gio should hopefully address both of those underbellies.

In the short term, Tractman gets a hitting upgrade in the form of Cuban wunderkind Yasiel Puig. When you render Vin Scully speechless, you know you’ve done something significant. Puig should help Seth remain competitive in the fierce home run battle and also boost his 4-point standing in steals. This short-term upgrade might come at a long-term expense though, as it cost Seth one of the premier hitters in the game (when healthy) in Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo is, of course, on the shelf for a month with a broken rib. But whether two months of Tulowitzki will be more valuable than three of Puig is a question worth asking. The answer mostly depends on where you fall on the pessimist vs. optimist spectrum regarding Puig.

Lastly the deal also gives Tractman arguably the most impressive closer this year in Edward Mujica. He went from two closers to zero when Brandon League and Jim Henderson lost their jobs, and Mujica should help him tread water in the saves category, where he currently ranks sixth. I had no problem relieving myself of a closer, given I had three at the time (since then I also traded Jim Johnson in a separate deal) and hold a commanding 20 save lead over Fred Zinkie, who is second in the category.

Reality?

There are many perspectives through which to view this deal. One is to view it in terms of the healthy vs. injured players. Regarding the healthy, Puig and Mujica for Gio favors Seth, while Tulo for Burnett is a monstrous win for me. Although it will be at least a month before I can reap the benefits. In terms of draft day dollars it’s quite lopsided; I’m trading a total of $4 while for Seth it’s $47. This is because Puig and Mujica were both fortuitous waiver pickups, not auction bought. It took 19 well-spent dollars to land Mujica, and a lucky $1 bid placed Puig on the team the week before his call-up and subsequent exploits.

The bottom line, though, is that I was able to acquire two premium players in this deal, and premium players are worth taking chances on in mixed formats. Time will tell if it will be true in this case.