Author: admin

JEFF ERICKSON:

I’ve got “All I Need is a Miracle” by Mike and the Mechanics playing in my head, and that’s just not a good place to be.

It turns out, I have absolutely no upside in the pitching categories, only downside, and not even much of that. I’m up one win on Ron and two wins on Liss, but neither have a starting pitcher going for them today. The only way they end up with another start is if the O’s & Yanks tie and have to have a tiebreaker game for the AL East title, as both have Orioles pitchers on their roster.

So, I’m left to look elsewhere to try to find how to gain 2.5 points or more in the last full day of the season. Larry and Ron are tied in saves – so go Royals and M’s, let’s hope Greg Holland and Tom Wilhelmsen notch saves! And Larry should definitely root for his Red Sox to play spoilers against the Yankees, so Rafael Soriano doesn’t get a save and the Yankees don’t win the AL East. I call that a win-win.

Alas, the lack of starts for Ron and Chris hurt me, too, as they are behind Larry six and seven strikeouts respectively. Rick and Glenn are just two K’s behind Larry, but they also have no starters today. Hopefully their high-K relievers get plenty of action. Unfortunately, Larry has Jered Weaver going tonight, so that’s not looking so good. I can’t emphasize enough how much those starts from Jeremy Guthrie and Miguel Gonzalez meant for him last night. Without them, Larry is three points to the worse and needing a command performance from Weaver.

So … back to hitting. There’s still a path, but it’s difficult. I’m chasing Rob (not “Fawn“) Leibowitz by five runs and Andy Behrens by three. I’m trailing Jason Collette by two homers. Larry is leading Lawr Michaels by just one RBI (but trailing Rick/Glenn by just one RBI). Larry is leading Matthew Berry by two stolen bases.

So let’s start cheering for Lawr and Matthew. Kyle Seager, take Jered Weaver deep, please. Nick Swisher, now is your time to shine and clinch that AL East title against Larry’s Red Sox. Just make sure the Yankees win by 7 or 8, please. Alcides Escobar, 34 steals are great – but wouldn’t 35 look like a better number in arbitration? Oakland, you want that AL West title badly enough? Put in Jemile Weeks as a pinch-runner and get that go-ahead run from first-to-third in a snap! Let’s do this!

Finally, in regards to Larry’s Jamey Carroll comment – the world needs ditch-diggers, too. We’ve all got those sorts of guys on our roster. Even though I got way more mileage than one could possibly expect from Elliott Johnson, it sure would be nice if the Rays let him pinch-run and score a run today.

LARRY SCHECHTER:

“All I need is a miracle”….I love that song!

I think Jeff’s chances are much better than a “miracle.”

Soriano threw about 40 pitches last night, so I don’t know if he’s even available today.

My Red Sox are truly pathetic.

Ambrosius and Childs have Trout in LABR AL and look like they may not win. There are three teams within a point of each other with one day to go. Now that’s a race!!!

LABR has a tie-breaker rule. Does Tout? If Jeff and I finish with the same # points, is it a tie? Do they give us each a trophy or do we have to cut one in half?

Maybe Jeff and I will finish tied today, and so will Bal-NYY, and it will all come down to Soriano getting a save Thursday after taking today off?

I feel like I’m hanging on by a thread. But that’s not bad, considering a few weeks ago I fell out of 1st place a few days here and there. My lead is down to two points, and I’m vulnerable in many categories. A bad hitting day could potentially result in up to 6 points losts (2 for RBI’s and one every other category).

Jeff should be able to maintain his wins lead over Shandler, because Jeff has 4 scheduled SP to just 1 for Ron. Likewise, I should stay ahead of Ron and Chris Liss for K’s, because I have 3 SP to their 1 and 2 SP, respectively. I’m expecting to pass Wolf/Colton, because I’m just 2 K’s behind, and have a 3-1 SP edge.

There are many conflicting situations, such as I’d like Wolf/Colton to hit a few HR’s (to catch Jeff, but only solo shots, because they’re right behind me in RBI’s).

Last night, there were times when I was thinking, “would I rather have Felix get out of this jam and get a K, or would it be better if Callaspo got a hit and an RBI?”……and “If Saunders knocks in Montero, the run by Montero (for Andy) would hurt Jeff, but the RBI (for Lawr) would hurt me.”

This is definitely a bit crazy. If I paid this much attention to every run, RBI, etc., the entire year, I’d have to quit playing this game. At least onroto.com makes it very easy to look up which player is on each team.

Sunday was a little nuts watching football, baseball (on the internet) and the Ryder Cup.

Jeff said he could be the only AL-only team that has Trout and doesn’t win. Could I possibly be the only AL-team that started Jamey Carroll all year and won? Jamey went 3-5 yesterday and missed a HR by a foot.

The highlight Monday was not baseball, it was the last scoring play of the MNF game. This might be a record…I won three different games for three different reasons on the last score.

See the standings here
JEFF ERICKSON writes-
I was feeling pretty despondent about my chances, and I’ve still got a pretty big uphill battle, but a good weekend has pushed me up to the Plausibility Zone. The categories have tightened up in a number of places – I still need help, but they could happen.

The areas where I could make up the three-point gap:

– Runs: I’m down 2 runs to Behrens, and Larry is up three on Leibowitz (14 on me – that’s not going to happen). So I could conceivably make up two points right there.

– HR: I’m tied with Rick/Glenn, one HR ahead of Rob, four behind Jason Collette. So possible 1.5 point upside, possible 1.5 point downside. But wait, there’s more. Larry entered tonight tied with Moyer in HR and one homer behind Lawr. So he has a 1.5-point upside and just a half-point downside.

– RBI: This is pretty funny. I’m locked-and-loaded in third place there, but Larry was up just four RBI on Rick/Glenn heading into tonight. So I find myself hoping they get more RBI, but not on homers. So Larry has one point of downside.

– SB: We each really only have downside here – I’m up 2 on Behrens, Larry is up 4 on Berry. Let’s call that 1 point of downside for me, half-point of downside for Larry.

– AVG: I’m locked into first in BA, but Larry started Monday .0003 ahead of Collette. One point of downside for Larry.

So, just with hitting, I have 2.5 points of upside, 2.5 points of downside. Larry has 1.5 points of upside, 4 points of possible downside. There’s a lot of swing potential right there.

More coming on the pitching side of things. Tomorrow I’ll dive more into specific players I’m rooting for and against.

With three games left Larry Schechter has a three point lead over Jeff Erickson. In FAAB this week Erickson claimed Al Albuquerque, but didn’t get him. Schechter replaced three pitchers (Andy Pettitte, Erasmo Ramirez and Jason Vargas) with Maicer Izturis (Swing!), and two pitchers, Joel Peralta and Nate Jones. How do the two teams stack up in points?

RUNS: Schechter could lose one point (he’s up 3), while Erickson could gain one (he’s down 2).

HR: Schechter could lose 1/2 or gain 1 1/2 (he’s tied and down 1), while Erickson could gain 1/2 or lose 1 1/2 (he’s tied and up 1).

RBI: Schechter could lose one (he’s up 4), while Erickson is set.

SB: Schechter is set, while Erickson is up 2.

BA: Schechter could lose 1, he’s up .0003, while Erickson is probably set.

WINS: Erickson is .07 ahead of Schechter.

WHIP: Both are probably set.

SAVES: Schechter could lose 1 (he’s up 1), while Erickson is set.

WINS: Schechter could lose 1 (he’s up 1), and so could Erickson (he’s up 1).

K: Schechter could lose 1 or maybe gain 1 (he’s up 1, he’s down 7), while Erickson is set.

SUMMARY:

Team           PTS          HI            LOW
Schechter  89.5          92              83
Erickson    86.5         88              84

It doesn’t look like Erickson can overtake Schechter this week on his own, but Larry is going to have plenty of opportunities to lose this one.

A week ago Larry Schechter seemed to have reestablished his lead over Jeff Erickson in Tout Wars AL. Larry dominant lead in the first half had withered in August but grown in September, but now, with four ML games left, Jeff has clawed back into striking distance. Maybe. Here’s what the leaders are thinking on the night of September 29th:

JEFF ERICKSON: My quest to become the one Mike Trout owner to not win an AL-only league is going quite swimmingly tonight. Seeing Max Scherzer’s start get scratched wasn’t pleasant.

LARRY SCHECHTER: This is unlike any other time of the year, in that I am paying attention to where ever anything in the standings is close for me or Jeff.  i.e., if Ron has a starter going, I hope he gets a win but not too many K’s.

The highlight last night was Infante hitting a HR, which my offense desperately needed, and which blew a possible win for Diamond and knocked him out of the game…which was good because Diamond is owned Mike Siano, who is just one win behind me.

My offense is limping to the end here, with tons of injuries.  Besides Big Papi and Markakis, who really hurt me, lately Asdrubal keeps missing games here and there; and Gutierrez and Molina just got hurt this week.

Two Sundays ago I FAAB’d Bourgeious instead of Endy Chavez, and that was the wrong choice.  Endy played almost every day and did better.  So this past Sunday I FAAB’d Endy and benched Bourgeious, and all of a sudden Endy’s on the bench.  He’s only started once so far this week.