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Tout NL: Can’t run out the clock in fantasy baseball

Tout Wars NL leader and USA Today columnist Steve Gardner describes his situation going into the season’s final seven days:

“There’s exactly one week left in the regular season. And without a doubt it’s going to be the longest week of the year.

That’s the feeling you have when your fantasy team is in first place — like mine is in the NL Tout Wars experts league. On Sunday, I had a 10.5-point lead on Mastersball.com’s Brian Walton … but in just a couple days he whittled the margin down to 6.5. I can tell these last few days are going to be absolutely brutal.

It was nerve-wracking last year when I was in a tight three-way battle in the Tout Wars mixed league. But that was different because I was always the third wheel trying to stick my nose in there — and I never really got a sniff of the lead. This time, I’m the one trying to hold on for dear life.

What am I going to be watching most intently? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Brian is breathing down my neck in three of the five pitching categories.

I lead ERA 3.31 to 3.37.
I lead WHIP 1.21 to 1.23
I lead strikeouts 1070 to 1041

I’m not just wearing one target on my back, I’m wearing three. Because I can still gain ground in wins, I can’t afford to run a bunch of relievers out there to protect my ratios. If any of my starting pitchers have a major meltdown, I could see those leads in ERA and WHIP evaporate in an instant. With Brian there waiting to pounce — and with RotoWire’s Chris Liss between us with a 1.22 WHIP — there’s potential six-point swing in those ratio categories.

With all that said, I really do like the guys I have out there. Madison Bumgarner has been awesome since the All-Star break (8-3, 2.43). Zack Greinke has rewarded my patience with almost-identical (8-3, 2.29) stats over that span. They’ll go next for me on Thursday and Saturday.

The problem with being in first place is that there’s nowhere to go but down. Outside of possibly a point in wins, there’s almost no chance for me to move up in any other category. So in effect, I have to do what never seems to work in pro football — play not to lose.

But since it’s fantasy baseball we’re playing, maybe the results will turn out better.

Tout AL: All Over But…

We asked Tout AL second placer and RotoWire founder Jeff Erickson how he saw his chances of catching Larry Schechter for the AL crown:

Jeff says: “I need a time machine, so that I can tell a young, impressionable Jeff that investing in Jacob McGee and Fernando Rodney is a fool’s errand. Spend that money on Kyle Farnsworth and Jordan Walden, or on starting pitching, so that I don’t have to tear apart that beautiful offense that I assembled. I spent too much of my surplus chasing saves, all for a 2.5-to-3.0 point boost. I think I lost at least that much in trading away the bats in the process.

Oh yeah, and not owning Vin Mazzaro would have been a good play, too.

I don’t see where I can gain enough and Larry can lose enough in points to catch him at this point. Second place in a money league is nice, but here it’s just a case of being the first loser. Hopefully I can hold off Jason for second.”

Sandlot Shrink vet Larry Schechter’s perspective is just a bit different: “I’ve got such a big lead, I can’t possibly blow it now!  Oh wait, isn’t that what the Red Sox said a few weeks ago?”

Good luck, gents!

Tout MIXED, Minnix says: “No better place to be than on top…”

Nick Minnix of KFFL.com reports on the Tout Wars Mixed pennant race:

There’s no better place to be than on top. In roto baseball, anyway. Unless you’re on top and you have a sinking feeling. It won’t take much for everything that my competition – Fred and Tim – needs to happen … to happen. I picked up five points this past week, not a bad time to do it, but I entered Monday sitting on the most precarious four-point lead you can imagine. I’m just hoping that each of these dudes is second-guessing himself (and experiencing an unsettled stomach) as much as I am. Continue reading “Tout MIXED, Minnix says: “No better place to be than on top…””

More FAAB Talk, by Steve Gardner

USA Today’s fantasy columnist follows up on past stories about the midseason FAAB spree and the perils of trading.

Of special note in Steve’s piece is Ron Shandler’s comment that by opening up FAAB bidding to minor league players, Tout teams have more options than just loading up for the big bear promotions of prospects and midseason league changes. In fact, the early poaching of minor league talent before promotion may be one reason there were few big ticket purchases during the season. Players like Cowgill, Goldschmidt, and Giavotella were picked up by savvy players well before their big league teams promoted them.

Last year, I picked up the Nationals’ Danny Espinosa the week before September callups. I was the only bidder, and was rewarded by a huge game right off the bat. If he had been a free agent at that point, some team would have spent all their FAAB on him. What a difference a week can make.

One other note: As for the problems with trading FAAB dollars, most if not all of them would be eliminated by ending FAAB dollar trading a couple of weeks before the major league nonwaiver trading deadline of July 31. I’m thinking the All Star Break makes sense. Such a change would muddy the waters and make it more difficult to see what the benefits of having the most FAAB would be and remove much of the asymmetricality of FAAB trades that give a team first position at the deadline. I like having as many different tools available to take a team from the start of the season to the end, but when we discover that a rule may lead to wildly different motivations by various teams for arbitrary reasons (that can be exploited to the detriment of third party owners), I think we have a good reason to make changes.

The FAAB Issue: Rotoman Speaks

Brian Walton wrote a story earlier this week about his attempts to trade with a nameless owner who caused him fits. Brian was peeved and let the owner know it, but when he told the story he scrubbed it of any identifying information, to save the owner from embarrassment. It was a gracious gesture but unnecessary. The owner felt his actions were, with one small exception, above board and proper. I should know, the owner was me.
Continue reading “The FAAB Issue: Rotoman Speaks”

A FAABulous Move

Steve Gardner describes his midseason FAAB strategy, which Brian Walton touched on in a story at Mastersball, and looks at the thinking of the owners with the money at the trading deadline.