Tout Table: Early Trade Philosophy

We have a first as a trade was consummated in this week’s Tout Table. Unfortunately, it may be the last as one of the participants received some ill timed news soon after finalizing the deal. Who made the trade and who was involved? Read on and find out.

Now that we’re a bit past the one-month mark, how proactive are you seeking trading partners? How do you open the discussions to generate engagement?

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Whatever it is that I am doing, it is not working. I typically put a player out there for the others in the league to consider and tell them that if they are interested, let me know and I will work to find a match. Sometimes, this results in a quick match. Other times, there is no match at all and other owners walk away without even a counter–even though they said they were interested in the player. Sometimes, the counter is so obviously an attempt at a ripoff that I know they are searching for found money and hoping that I am desperate to move the player. I think there is no time like now to make a deal, though. You have to have time to impact categories you are targeting and vice versa.

Matt Williams (The Athletic, @MattWi77iams): I am open to a “reply all” open announcement to the league if I happen to have a trade scenario in mind (Trade Player X for an OF), but prefer to do some proactive leg work and find a trade partner who would use the player I wish to move and can afford to move someone I have a need for. It’s not rocket science, but trying to actually create a trade that makes sense for both sides is a step most fantasy managers skip.

D.J. Short (NBC Sports Edge, @djshort): I wouldn’t say I’m proactive; I’m probably more proactive in a dynasty league where it’s easy to spot the managers who are moving in one direction or the other as far as competing. In a redraft league, this is around the time where you might get a feel for what you lack and what you might be willing to part with to upgrade in other areas. Of course, injuries can also play a part in expediting this process. It never hurts to send a quick email to the group or update a trade block in leagues where it can be easily viewable.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball, @): most of the trading I do is in keeper leagues and if I am initiating trade talks especially for a key player I will send an email to the entire league to let them know that Lucas Giolito (expiring contract) is available

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): I look for opportunities to improve my teams from the time trading opens until the time trading closes. Depending on the league, I target particular owners or players or simply send out a blast message. The main function of the one-month mark is to somewhat focus what I’m looking for.

Nando Di Fino (The Athletic, @nandodifino): I send a bunch of trades out to teams and then blast the message board telling them that the first to accept gets the player. I tend to be aggressive if I’m trying to make moves this early. And I’ll make strong offers to show I’m willing to deal and not just putting out feelers. First or nothing! However, all these leagues have quirks: If I’m in a league with Zinkie, I read a well thought-out several-paragraph-long email about why I need this player to move up three points in steals, then accept it, hypnotized. I’m in a league with Pianowski, I reply with “I like the offer, but how about this” and he’ll reply with “I like that offer but how about this?” and we usually get it done in record time.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): I am actively throwing trade offers at everyone in the league right now regardless of needs or standings. I consider the first offer to be the first step in a negotiation so I usually make really crappy offers and hope someone mistakenly bites on one. If they don’t then I just keep sending the ol’ “pile-o-junk” quantity for quality trade, hoping they will just caves in to my unrealistic demands. Oh wait….that’s the blueprint for never being my trade partner in the future. I’m not sure I understood the assignment.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): Great timing on the question. In LABR, I just completed a trade with Matt Williams. For this, I had an underperforming Jesse Winker on my bench, and needed a bit of pitching help. I sent an e-mail out to the entire league asking for a pitcher in return for him. I got a couple of offers, and ended up working with Matt on a simple 1 for 1 trade. I traded him for Eduardo Rodriguez, another underperforming player. It is usually at this time of the season (1 month into it) where I assess my team categories, and look at my strengths/weaknesses. Rather than a “Trade Block” approach, I typically than engage teams in each league who may be good trade partners. I get the conversation going on what I am looking for and can offer.

Alex Fast (Pitcher List, @AlexFast8): I usually am not the first person to trade but with all these under-performing players, its difficult not to. For this year, I’d be looking to trade for pitchers like Woodruff or Morton (or other underperformers who I feel confident will turn it around) for a high level struggling hitter. This is only if I feel confident that the pieces that I have that are currently performing are sufficient. Usually though, I’m holding tight.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): This is just the point of the season where I do start to assess my team’s strengths and weaknesses now that some of the stats have built up and gaps in the standings have occurred. I am starting to identify potential trade partners, but don’t yet feel a need to initiate an offer as no category wherein I have a lead is substantial enough to not be completely undone by the absence of those strong players and/or the trades of other teams. I prefer to engage specific owners rather than broadcast my intentions and when I make larger moves or moves to try and have multiple potential trades lined up to try to create a domino effect as I try to move up the standings in key areas at once to offset any potential losses. I find the best initial offers cut to the chase, offering up multiple options to the team you want a player from such as “one from column A, two from column B”, etc. I loathe emails of the “Do you have any interest in X player or are you willing to trade “x” player?” Initiators should always make an offer if they expect to accomplish anything. In Dynasty leagues, teams are already considering dumping, so you have to be much more aggressive to target long-term keepers for the dumping team and the pivotal non-keepers for a championship-bound team.

Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): I only play redraft and only two of my leagues allow trades. If my team is particularly imbalanced, I look for teams that are the opposite and look for a win-win trade. I will send an all team e-mail in the few cases where my team is just loaded with solid players and I’m facing a roster crunch.

Brad Johnson (Baseball HQ, @BaseballATeam): Like many others here, I’ve grown accustomed to using trade blocks rather than proactively seeking out players. Mostly, I trade with the waiver wire. I have an addiction to fringe players so I’m usually happier to grab a Travis Demeritte for free than to work on big trades. In dynasty leagues, I tend to develop my trades over multiple months.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @FredZinkieMLB): I’m in draft and hold this year, so no one has the misfortune of having to talk trade with me LOL. But when I want to make a deal, I want to start with a specific offer that accomplishes two things: it shows the other owner that I put some thought into why they would want to make the deal, and it gives them some flexibility to swap out names that they don’t want to be involved.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Unfortunately, I’m quite lazy when it comes to seeking out trading partners. That laziness, combined with my excruciating patience, means I don’t generally send out many trade offers. If I do muster the energy to initiate talks, it’s vital that you seek a partner who actually needs the position and/or category you’re looking to trade away. Just as I get annoyed when I get offered a player who is worse than the players currently starting for me and would therefore just sit on my bench, your trading partner isn’t going to accept an offer unless it clearly benefits his team and fills a hole or weakness.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I agree with Doug’s observation that now is a great time to make a trade because there’s loads o’ time to get the positive effects. The problem is that it’s also usually too soon to see where your surpluses or unrecoverable shortfalls are going to be, and projections are notoriously inaccurate. In my only trading league, the standings are still highly volatile and almost literally anything could still happen—I could make up ground or get kicked right in the decimals. As it happens, I have a pretty solid lead in SBs in my trading league, and I’ve been looking at potential trade partners who might benefit from SBs, but I’m not sure they’ll be willing to deal a multi-cat contributor for a guy whose value is mostly or entirely in bags. I’ll be figuring out what to do this week.

Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): This is an appropriate time for me to see where I need to improve and seek out trade partners. I am very conservative with trades so it is rare for me to pull off deals, even though I did make a blockbuster already in a redraft league where I was able to sell off Semien in a package and get back Bichette before he got hot. I like to have depth on my rosters, so I usually try and trade from areas of strength in order to improve at a specific position or in a particular category. Having over a month’s worth of stats is a fair gauge of a player’s value, but such an evaluation needs to be looked at in context with what MLB is today. If I see another team with needs that I can address through my own depth and flexibility, then I will make an overture and see if I can pilfer someone from them to improve my team. But usually I wait to be approached by others before engaging in negotiations depending on the type of league it is.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): Great timing on this question since it’s right at the time of the season when I start to assess whether I’m looking to flip some players for others. I look at standings to see if there is a potential match based on player performance and areas of strength. When I find a match, I make an offer. I tend to send out fewer offers than other managers I’ve played with and as a result I try to keep that initial offer competitive for both of us. If the other party isn’t interested I’ll move to my next best bet.

Tim McLeod (Prospect361.com, @RunTMcP361 ): It’s still early. I initiate very little trade talk until the end of May. I try to exercise a fair bit of patience and use the Free Agent pool to improve my team early-on, giving under-performing players an opportunity to right the ship. Once we head into June the gloves come off and the search to find a match that makes any deal a win/win for both parties begins.

Eric Karabell (ESPN, @karabelleric): I haven’t been so aggressive in initiating trade talks in recent seasons, but I also like to exorcise patience and allow proven players ample time to get their numbers. Sometimes one can just tell someone is not going to work out, though. I know I don’t like when another team offers me a clearly one-sided deal, so I don’t do it either. I admit I’m more likely to initiate a trade with another manager I know better.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): The Godfather always like to make an offer that can’t be refused, but I haven’t sent any offers out yet this year. There are a few players that have gotten off to slow starts that I have an interest in, so it’s time to either make a play for them or move on. I’m not suffering in any categories bad enough that I feel a major need, so I’m might just stay quiet for another month.

Dr. Roto (FullTime Fantasy, @DrRoto): While I am always looking for potential deals and trade partners, I rarely make any offers prior to the end of May as I know that most other teams prefer to wait until then. That said, when the time comes, I always try to make an offer that can help a competitor otherwise the offer is a waste of time and they might be reluctant to deal with me in the future.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): I’m so proactive that I’m willing to do it right here in Tout Table. Sara: I think you should trade one of those aces to me for Seiya or Yordan or some other piece. It seems like we should be able to work out a hitting-for-pitching swap, given our various team needs. Let’s get this done right here in the shared Google doc.

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): I’m always open to deal. If I have a weakness, I’d rather address it now than wait another month or two, when I might be in a bigger hole. Maybe six weeks isn’t enough to give us the full picture behind a player’s success/struggles, but we have at least some data to work with. Plus, I’ll admit that, for me, trading is part of the fun. I don’t trade just to trade, but I’m not afraid to pull the trigger if I think a deal will help me, even if it’s early in the season.

Eric Cross (Fantrax, @EricCross04): Having a discussion with the potential trade partner before actually making an offer can be highly beneficial. Blindly sending offers back and forth rarely works so having that discussion about what you’re looking for, what they are looking for, etc. is the best way to try to get something done in my opinion.

Greg Jewett (Fantasy Alarm, @gjewett9): Identify my team needs, then a team in the league who can address it, and who I can help in the trade as well. Even if I “lose” the trade on perceived perception, if it upgrades the roster giving me the best chance at gaining on the league, it’s worth it. Do not be the person sending out a three-for-one deal to everyone in the league.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): Andy: I’d definitely be interested in adding more bats. Probably more likely to deal Kershaw, what are you willing to part with for Clayton?

Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): *Unrolls cartoonishly long list* I probably won’t trade runaway N.L. MVP fave Juan Yepez, but almost anyone else is in play. I have the same reservations as anyone else would with Kershaw, mostly related to durability. And yet I also need to do something about my ratios before they calcify. If we were drafting from scratch today, I’d probably rank Kershaw in the neighborhood of … Bregman? Abreu? I’d deal either of those two.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): Bregman for Kershaw rest of season looks like a fair deal to me, I am actually more in need of outfielders if you were willing to part with Seiya for Kershaw.

Vlad Sedler (Fantasy Guru, @rotogut): We should always be in the mode of trying to improve our rosters and trying to ‘take advantage’ of league-mates who might be overreacting to slow performers. It’s important to stay in contact with folks in your league to gauge their temperatures on hitters or pitchers of theirs who could be great trade targets for you. By keeping in occasional contact, you appear less suspicious than if you just contact them out of the blue with a trade proposal. A friendly ‘face’ is one others will be more willing to do business with.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): I still don’t know how the rest of the world values Seiya, because I was too high on him to ever let anyone else draft him. I would deal Seiya for Kershaw, given my pitching situation. Let’s do this thing.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): Done, send me the deal 🙂

Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): I try to always be active on the trade market. I aim to find out what my partner is looking for so that way we can both walk away happy. Trading is like a relationship, if you screw your partner over too many times, you’ll find yourself all alone.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): If I find that I have a void in my team roster, I will be the one to initiate “the art of the deal”. Once I find the players that I am targeting, I will look at my trading partner’s team to see where he needs help and if I can help them. I really dislike receiving trade offers where there is no benefit or incentive for me to negotiate a trade. People need to listen to the following FM radio station which is “WIIFM”, which stands for What’s In It For Me?

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I’ll add, I’ve grown absolutely exhausted with folks saying “you didn’t consider my needs.” Consider your own damned needs. I’d say maybe 1 in 200 offers I get makes a lick of sense for my team. I’ll look out for myself. You look out for you. We’ll find a fit if there is one.

Joe Sheehan (The Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan): I am certainly more passive than average, I think. I spend a lot of time looking at the standings and rosters for matches, but will tend to sit back and be prepared for offers more than I’ll propose them. When I do, though, I am aggressively transparent, especially in industry leagues, where it’s safe to assume you’re not going to rook anyone, and the process of making a deal can generate writing ideas. So you should explain your thinking up front and look hard for win-win deals.

Chris Towers (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CTowersCBS): I tend to not be as aggressive as I probably should be with trade offers at this time of year because I’m still trying to figure out what my team actually needs. Sure, I can just look at the standings, but if I have faith in my hitters, do I necessarily need to make a trade for one just because I’m struggling right now? Admittedly, this is also why I might be a bit too slow to react to in-season changes, but I’m finding it especially hard to make big moves right now because I just don’t quite have a grasp on how the new offensive environment is going to play when the weather warms up. I’ll probably be more willing to go search out deals in the next few weeks.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): Let the record show that Kershaw hit the injured list WITHIN 24 HOURS of our trade, Sara. Definitely the last time I agree to a deal in a Google doc.

Zach Steinhorn (CreativeSports2, @zachsteinhorn): A brief note on the league message board in which I state my position/category needs along with what I have to offer is my first step, but I’ll also look at the category standings and many of the rosters to see if I can find a fit. I usually won’t get player-specific until I communicate directly with a certain owner. Maybe they have interest in a player I thought no one had interest in, so it is best not to limit yourself by immediately naming a few players who are available. Sometimes, I will receive a response to my message board post and a trade could get worked out but I’ve actually had more success sending e-mails to specific owners. It shows that I put in the work to not only think about my own needs but also their potential needs, and if there’s a deal to be made, the negotiations tend to run very smoothly.

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): I find myself more willing to receive offers than give them. I’m always open to listening to ideas, but get frustrated when I do reach out to initiate trades and the other party slow plays things or just never replies. I am not a fan of blind email offers, but I also feel If I’m putting too much explanation into the offer, nothing is going to happen. I have a few trade league teams with some imbalances, but have thus far been unable to find willing trade partners.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’ve heard trades negotiated and consummated on the radio, but not here. Pretty cool. Anyway, I’m not much for being proactive with deals, especially early, but I do want to present myself as approachable and congenial in negotiations. As such, I try to agree to an early swap, even if I see it as a parallel deal on my end. That is, I don’t improve nor hurt my team, but others in the league see I made a deal, so they may be more incentivized to get in touch.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): I’ll probably be even slower than usual this year to dip my toes in the trade waters – between the dead ball (or not), the impact of the humidor (or not), it’s tougher than usual to get a feel for which players’ slow/fast starts are legit vs small sample size aberrations. A set any categorical or roster imbalances attributable to injuries or demotions, I don’t feel I have enough information yet to assess most players at this point.

Tout Wars FAB: Week of May 16

There weren’t many big money purchases, but several of the Tout leagues were busy plugging holes this week. Check out the results here. Remember, you can check out the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the heading.

American League

Player Team Bid
SSouza, Sea Rob Leibowitz 78
WVest, Det Doug Dennis 69
CBethancourt, Oak Chris Blessing 59
MDubon, Hou Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 59
ZLogue, Oak Ryan Bloomfield 55
LTorrens, Sea Mike Podhorzer 53
HRobles, Bos Patrick Davitt 39
RBannon, Bal Chris Blessing 33
SHuff, Tex Mike Podhorzer 32
COwings, Bal Ryan Bloomfield 32
LBarrera, Oak Mike Podhorzer 27
MFord, Sea Mike Podhorzer 23
DSteckenrider, Sea Patrick Davitt 19
VVelasquez, CWS Jason Collette 14
CSilseth, LAA Jeff Erickson 13
MStrahm, Bos Jason Collette 3
JSchreiber, Bos Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
SLangeliers, Oak Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 1
MGonzalez, NYY Chris Blessing 1
ABemboom, Bal Howard Bender 0

National League

Player Team Bid
ZThompson, Pit Phil Hertz 32
BDonovan, StL Grey Albright 13
CPoteet, Mia Grey Albright 13
PMazeika, NYM Brian Walton 13
MPerez, Pit Grey Albright 3
DGordon, Was Derek Carty 2
JMantiply, Ari Steve Gardner 1
AVesia, LAD Derek Carty 1
AAlmora, Cin Peter Kreutzer 0
DLeone, SF Peter Kreutzer 0
MBrosseau, Mil Steve Gardner 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
RLewis, Min Brent Hershey 97
CSilseth, LAA Alex Chamberlain 65
GSheets, CWS Scott Engel 64
EWhite, Tex Scott Pianowski 55
MMeyer, Mia Scott Swanay 50
RWick, ChC Scott Swanay 35
FBautista, Bal Justin Mason 22
WCastro, Det Derek VanRiper 22
LGarcia, Was Jeff Zimmerman 12
WContreras, Atl Tim Heaney 11
CKuhl, Col Tim Heaney 11
AHedges, Cle Zach Steinhorn 7
JQuintana, Pit Jeff Zimmerman 6
MCabrera, Det Scott Pianowski 3
JIglesias, Col Scott Pianowski 3
MMaldonado, Hou Jeff Zimmerman 2
AMinter, Atl Scott Pianowski 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
KGraveman, CWS Jeff Barton 27
CMoran, Cin D.J. Short 25
PSewald, Sea Mike Gianella 24
ZPlesac, Cle Anthony Perri 23
RJeffers, Min Jeff Barton 21
IKennedy, Ari Adam Ronis 18
GSheets, CWS Adam Ronis 12
DSmyly, ChC Shelly Verougstraete 10
WVest, Det Scott White 7
ERios, LAD Perry Van Hook 6
JOdorizzi, Hou Perry Van Hook 6
COverton, Cin Perry Van Hook 6
CHolmes, NYY Shelly Verougstraete 5
ADiaz, Cin Tim McLeod 4
NSolak, Tex Ray Murphy 3
JSiri, Hou Perry Van Hook 3
CArcher, Min Rudy Gamble 1
JDiekman, Bos Mike Gianella 1
ArtWarren, Cin Mike Gianella 1
ABass, Mia Mike Gianella 1
JSprings, TB Seth Trachtman 1
LTorrens, Sea Ray Murphy 0
WContreras, Atl Adam Ronis 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
BZimmermann, Bal Andrea LaMont 71
JOdorizzi, Hou Andrea LaMont 41
DSmyly, ChC Ariel Cohen 34
AGimenez, Cle Greg Jewett 27
BGamel, Pit Ariel Cohen 18
JSprings, TB Greg Jewett 18
ZLogue, Oak Frank Stampfl 17
JQuintana, Pit Frank Stampfl 12
GSheets, CWS Clay Link 7
BMiller, Tex Ryan Hallam 6
TBarnhart, Det Chris Welsh 2
MMeyer, Mia Clay Link 1

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
MMeyer, Mia Jake Ciely 45
MMargot, TB Chris Clegg 43
BDrury, Cin Jennifer Piacenti 36
LWade, SF Sara Sanchez 24
DJimenez, Oak Sara Sanchez 24
SGray, Min Chris Clegg 23
RTepera, LAA Andy Behrens 11
JDuran, Min Andy Behrens 11
WFlores, SF Matt Truss 11
RDetmers, LAA Matt Truss 7

Tout Wars FAB: Week of May 9

It was a busy week with several minor league callups making their MLB debut. Check out how much it took for the likes of George Kirby, Juan Yepez, Alek Thomas and Jose Miranda.

American League

Player Team Bid
JDuran, Bos Doug Dennis 39
JSprings, TB Jason Collette 32
AVelazquez, LAA Howard Bender 32
ROHearn, KC Mike Podhorzer 26
CRaleigh, Sea Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 19
LRengifo, LAA Mike Podhorzer 17
WCastro, Det Chris Blessing 17
ZReks, Tex Joe Sheehan 12
MGonzalez, NYY Rob Leibowitz 7
ESwanson, Sea Jason Collette 6
FBautista, Bal Joe Sheehan 2
JBarria, LAA Howard Bender 2
BRortvedt, NYY Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
AWhitefield, LAA Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 1
SHentges, Cle Doug Dennis 0
RBrasier, Bos Doug Dennis 0

National League

Player Team Bid
JDunand, Mia Grey Albright 21
JSuwinski, Pit Phil Hertz 16
AKnapp, Pit Grey Albright 12
LGarcia, Was Ian Kahn 11
CCavalli, Was Ian Kahn 11
SLugo, NYM Phil Hertz 6
TNido, NYM Phil Hertz 3
TFriedl, Cin Derek Carty 2
HCastellanos, Ari Derek Carty 1
TanScott, Mia Peter Kreutzer 0
JCamargo, Phi Peter Kreutzer 0
MReynolds, Cin Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
MBeaty, SD Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
COverton, Cin Tristan H. Cockcroft 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JGKirby, Sea Derek VanRiper 207
JYepez, StL CJ Kaltenbach 136
RHelsley, StL Alex Chamberlain 136
JMiranda, Min Zach Steinhorn 83
YHernandez, Was Scott Engel 61
EOlivares, KC Justin Mason 57
JWinder, Min Jeff Zimmerman 54
MMelendez, KC Justin Mason 47
RMontero, Hou Scott Swanay 38
ARivas, ChC Eric Karabell 33
MFranco, Was Scott Pianowski 22
HCastellanos, Ari Michael Rathburn 12
MPerez, Tex Justin Mason 7
BMiller, Tex Tim Heaney 6
BRaley, TB Scott Pianowski 1
AKnizner, StL Scott Swanay 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
JYepez, StL Tim McLeod 217
JGKirby, Sea Ray Murphy 177
JMiranda, Min Scott White 117
AThomas, Ari Scott White 117
RLewis, Min Scott White 117
JWinder, Min Tim McLeod 57
RMontero, Hou Scott White 27
YHernandez, Was Scott White 17
NPivetta, Bos Anthony Perri 14
HCastellanos, Ari Shelly Verougstraete 13
MKing, NYY AJ Mass 10
PSmith, Ari Shelly Verougstraete 10
BDrury, Cin Perry Van Hook 7
MPerez, Tex Perry Van Hook 7
BRaley, TB Charlie Wiegert 7
DJefferies, Oak Charlie Wiegert 4
ASlater, SF Charlie Wiegert 3
JDiaz, LAA Perry Van Hook 2
ACimber, Tor Shelly Verougstraete 1

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
SStrider, Atl Dan Strafford 145
JWinder, Min Clay Link 83
JYepez, StL Greg Jewett 81
RLaureano, Oak Ryan Hallam 56
JMiranda, Min Chris Welsh 45
TWells, Bal Ariel Cohen 44
BDrury, Cin Greg Jewett 27
MPerez, Tex Ariel Cohen 14
YDiaz, TB Clay Link 13
CDoval, SF Chris Welsh 11
JBrubaker, Pit Nick Pollack 11
YHernandez, Was Nick Pollack 7

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
AThomas, Ari Jake Ciely 322
JGKirby, Sea Chris Towers 174
JYepez, StL Andy Behrens 86
JMiranda, Min Jake Ciely 57
SStrider, Atl Brian Entrekin 47
YDiaz, TB Sara Sanchez 42
JWinder, Min Jake Ciely 29
CWalker, Ari Chris Towers 27
CHolmes, NYY Matt Truss 26
RHelsley, StL Matt Truss 21
RLewis, Min Matt Truss 14
RMontero, Hou Jennifer Piacenti 13
JWendle, Mia Alex Fast 13
MZunino, TB Chris Clegg 8
AGomber, Col Jeff Boggis 5
TBarnhart, Det Alex Fast 4
PBlackburn, Oak Matt Truss 2
JDiaz, LAA Perry Van Hook 2
ACimber, Tor Shelly Verougstraete 1

Tout Daily: Knock on Woodruff

It’s the final week of Period 1 so the first three entries into the Tout Daily Tournament will be decided. Here are the standings.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p3xciNz58RqTsXoQ_XqqU0YjjRAJBtEs2kVJY69eGtI/edit#gid=25908899

And here are some of our picks.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff – Have to go chalk sometimes, right? Nothing cures a pitcher’s struggles like facing the Cincinnati Reds. If this were a normal season for Woodruff, he’s be $10K at the minimum in this match-up. I’ll happily take a slight discount here.

Hitter: MJ Melendez – If you’re going to punt at catcher, why not a min-priced guy with strong power potential? I’ll take the favorable lefty/righty match-up against Dakota Hudson who routinely pitches to a lot of contact. After all, he doesn’t need to do much to return value here on DK.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Joe Ryan – Expecting Woodruff’s rostership to be silly high, and I’ll be one of the donkeys. I’m fifth in this period (Top-3 get a ticket to the finals) so I’m more play it safe than take a shot, hence Ryan over Bruce Zimmermann (but I’ll play a GPP with Zimmermann).

Hitter: Juan Soto – Hard to fade a reasonably priced Soto in Coors, even facing German Marquez.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Carlos Rodon – Averaging 30.4 Fantasy Points Per Game. Highest salary on the board tonight at $10,000 and I would expect that he will be a popular pick. Not an easy matchup at the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Hitter: Anthony Rizzo – Wish I had started him last week with his 3 home runs and 52 fantasy points. Starting him tonight at $5,500. This is the first time this season that I am not starting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this season. Watch Vlad hit 3 home runs tonight just to spite me. Draftkings needs to consider a DH/Utility slot in their contests so that I can start them both tonight.

Jennifer Piacenti (SI.com, @jenpiacenti)

Pitcher: Michael Pineda – In order to afford the chalk (Rodon -who is worth the spend), I am pairing with a bargain Michael Pineda who is facing a Tigers team with a 24.6% K rate on the year.

Hitter: CJ Cron – CJ Cron. At home. Facing Eric Fedde in a game with an implied run total of 10.5. Don’t overthink it.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Cristian Javier – Still cheap, could go six tonight, maybe?

Hitter: Jose Miranda – I’ve got a Twins stack going to bet against Bruce Zimmermann being for real, and Miranda allows me to easily afford Buxton.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)

Pitcher: Bruce Zimmermann – The lefty has yet to give up a run in two home starts this season (thank you new LF wall!) and the Twins will have almost all right-handed hitters in the lineup.

Hitter: MJ Melendez – Bender has a great idea. Did I give it to him or did he give it to me? But I digress … Let’s see what the kid can do. And how I can spend the savings elsewhere.

Tout Wars FAB results: Week of May 2-8

Here are the results of the six Tout Wars leagues using FAB. The direct link to each league is available via the league header. Here you can access standings, rosters and transactions.

American League

Player Team Bid
DHill, Det Howard Bender 138
KBradish, Bal Howard Bender 137
FCordero, Bos Howard Bender 88
RStripling, Tor Jeff Erickson 57
EWhite, Tex Doug Dennis 41
AHedges, Cle Ryan Bloomfield 33
KGarlick, Min Jason Collette 24
JWinder, Min Patrick Davitt 19
RPalacios, Cle Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 19
RMontero, Hou Ryan Bloomfield 13
GJax, Min Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 9
GCelestino, Min Jeff Erickson 7
TNevin, Bal Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 6
APuk, Oak Rob Leibowitz 2
KBubic, KC Joe Sheehan 1
BRaley, TB Joe Sheehan 1
EClement, Cle Mike Podhorzer 1
MMaldonado, Hou Jason Collette 0

National League

Player Team Bid
TDemeritte, Atl Ian Kahn 84
LGonzalez, SF Brian Walton 71
CHummel, Ari Todd Zola 37
LFox, Was Grey Albright 27
ZDavies, Ari Michael Simione 17
SDominguez, Phi Lenny Melnick 11
RAdams, Was Grey Albright 6
EMontero, Col Wilderman/Prior 5
ABass, Mia Brian Walton 2
SWilson, SD Steve Gardner 1
DrSmith, NYM Phil Hertz 1
RQuinn, Phi Peter Kreutzer 1
BWilson, Pit Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
WContreras, Atl Peter Kreutzer 0

Mixed Salary Cap

IKennedy, Ari Tim Heaney 66 DDunning, Tex Justin Mason 44 EHosmer, SD Jeff Zimmerman 44 JWendle, Mia Jeff Zimmerman 44 MChavis, Pit Justin Mason 35 AGomber, Col Alex Chamberlain 33 PSmith, Ari Brent Hershey 33 BDrury, Cin Tim Heaney 24 CIrvin, Oak Scott Pianowski 21 WCalhoun, Tex Justin Mason 17 KBradish, Bal Brent Hershey 17 TNaquin, Cin Jeff Zimmerman 15 TBarnhart, Det Scott Engel 11 OHerrera, Phi Scott Engel 9 CMcCormick, Hou Eric Karabell 6 KThompson, ChC Jeff Zimmerman 5 CHolmes, NYY Eric Karabell 3 MTaylor, KC Scott Pianowski 3 KKiermaier, TB Derek VanRiper 2

Mixed 15 Draft

Player Team Bid
KBradish, Bal Tim McCullough 92
SLangeliers, Oak AJ Mass 84
RHelsley, StL Anthony Perri 65
KGarlick, Min Tim McCullough 51
OHerrera, Phi Tim McLeod 45
PBlackburn, Oak Seth Trachtman 35
EOlivares, KC D.J. Short 35
GOtto, Tex Shelly Verougstraete 33
KIsbel, KC Ray Murphy 29
BGamel, Pit Jeff Barton 26
GUrshela, Min D.J. Short 25
TDemeritte, Atl Perry Van Hook 23
MMelendez, KC D.J. Short 20
JFeyereisen, TB Anthony Perri 15
CArcher, Min Shelly Verougstraete 13
NGorman, StL Mike Gianella 10
CKuhl, Col Perry Van Hook 9
MFranco, Was Perry Van Hook 7
CMcCormick, Hou Adam Ronis 6
LTorrens, Sea Adam Ronis 4
IParedes, TB Shelly Verougstraete 3
BWilson, Pit Shelly Verougstraete 3
MBush, Tex Mike Gianella 1
KSmith, Oak Rudy Gamble 1
CHolmes, NYY Scott White 0
KGraveman, CWS Scott White 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
TWard, LAA Paul Sporer 162
EHosmer, SD Chris Welsh 87
DDunning, Tex Chris Welsh 85
JLyles, Bal Chris Welsh 65
SNeuse, Oak Chris Welsh 45
BMarsh, LAA Nick Pollack 43
BNimmo, NYM Clay Link 32
KBradish, Bal Nick Pollack 31
CKuhl, Col Geoff Pontes 26
AMcCutchen, Mil Chris Welsh 25
MChavis, Pit Geoff Pontes 23
WFlores, SF Ryan Hallam 22
AGomber, Col Andrea LaMont 22
GOtto, Tex Nick Pollack 21
TWalls, TB Greg Jewett 18
EHernandez, Mia Ariel Cohen 14
CWalker, Ari Geoff Pontes 7
DJefferies, Oak Geoff Pontes 6
LWade, SF Greg Jewett 3

Mixed 12 Draft (IP and Saves+Holds)

Player Team Bid
MMelendez, KC Jake Ciely 54
EHosmer, SD Jennifer Piacenti 31
RoPerez, Pit Jennifer Piacenti 1
HKim, SD Brian Entrekin 17
SEspinal, Tor Matt Truss 19
ABender, Mia Matt Truss 11
MWacha, Bos Jeff Boggis 22
MKepler, Min Jeff Boggis 12
ELauer, Mil Alex Fast 81
JDiekman, Bos Alex Fast 5
MMoustakas, Cin Brian Entrekin 6
CJavier, Hou Sara Sanchez 40
MPerez, Tex Jennifer Piacenti 6
BSulser, Pit Brian Entrekin 6

Tout Daily: On a Rodon to Somewhere

OK, that was weak. Hopefully, our picks will be strong. Here are some of the plays in this week’s Tout Daily Contest.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Carlos Rodon – Bummed some of the better options are off the main slate, but I want to pay up and Rodon is in a great spot at home vs. the Athletics

Hitter: Jesus Sanchez – Weather could be an issue, but I like Sanchez batting cleanup against Josiah Gray. I’m also looking at Bobby Witt hitting sixth against Dallas Keuchel

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS)

Pitcher: Triston McKenzie – Angels have struck out more this year and he comes at a nice mid-tier price tag that can let you save money or fit in a Carlos Rodon if you want to.

Hitter: Matt Olson – Marcus Stroman has been not missing many bats this year and Olson has the power to hit it a long way if he makes good contact.

Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty)

Pitcher: Carlos Rodon – THE BAT projects Carlos Rodon as the best non-deGrom pitcher in baseball, and he faces the worst offense in baseball. He’ll be chalky, but he projects for nearly 30 DK points and is a great play regardless.

Hitter: Cody Bellinger – The recency-biased “Cody Bellinger sucks now” people have quieted in recent days with Bellinger crushing, but his price hasn’t risen much. $3.2k for a good hitter in the best lineup in baseball is a steal, especially when that offense is the only one of the day to project for 6+ runs.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Josiah Gray – Carlos Rodon is the chalk play but Gray at $8400 faces a Miami offense that averages less than 4 runs per game. In his last 2 starts Gray has thrown 10.1 innings and allowed 4 hits, 1 run and struck out 13 batters.

Hitter: Austin Riley – Riley is 4 for his last 10 with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs. He faces Marcus Stroman who’s alllowed a HR is every start, 16 hits in 13.1 innings and opponents are hitting .286 against him. All this and Riley is only priced at $3800.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Carlos Rodon – Averaging 30.4 Fantasy Points Per Game. You have to pay up for him at $10,100, but he has a favorable home matchup tonight against Oakland.

Hitter: Owen Miller – He was tearing it up before he was hit with Covid. Taking advantage of his depressed salary at $3,400 this evening. He is batting .445 on the season.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)

Pitcher: Tony Gonsolin – Like the price and the DBacks have yet to hit anyone.

Hitter: Mat Olson – Nothing to add to CJ’s comment

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)

Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara – The Nationals rank 24th in scoring and OPS. Alcantara has been great in his three starts and should be able to take advantage.

Hitter: Mookie Betts – With a .203 average, people seem to be writing him off, so I’ll expect him to have low ownership despite the fact that he’s leading off vs. the D’backs.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)

Pitcher: Max Fried – Great price for a guy who should have a great outing

Hitter: Austin Riley – Why is he priced so low ? The new daddy is taking Stroman deep

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Tony Gonsolin – You ask me for miracles. I give you the Diamondbacks.

Hitter: Cody Bellinger – Still only $3.2 against Zach Davies. Seems like an auto-play to me. It also seems like I’m going to have the same plays as everyone else. Oh well.

Tout Wars FAB results: Week of April 25-May 1

Here are the results of the six Tout Wars leagues using FAB. The direct link to each league is available via the league header. Here you can access standings, rosters and transactions.

American League

Player Team Bid
MKing, NYY Chris Blessing 63
JFeyereisen, TB Joe Sheehan 18
AVelazquez, LAA Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 18
GOtto, Tex Jeff Erickson 13
AHaseley, CWS Joe Sheehan 11
JLyles, Bal Joe Sheehan 8
HCastro, Det Ryan Bloomfield 7
KPlawecki, Bos Patrick Davitt 4
CSchmidt, NYY Ryan Bloomfield 4
BBurke, Tex Chris Blessing 3
RPinto, TB Jason Collette 3
CPoche, TB Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 3
CPerez, Bal Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 3
RLewis, Min Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
JRuiz, CWS Doug Dennis 2
AAllen, Oak Jason Collette 1
JAdam, TB Jason Collette 1
ACimber, Tor Patrick Davitt 0
ALoup, LAA Patrick Davitt 0
JTrevino, NYY Rob Leibowitz 0
NAllen, Oak Rob Leibowitz 0

National League

Player Team Bid
YHernandez, Ari Ian Kahn 61
KThompson, ChC Ian Kahn 46
CKuhl, Col Steve Gardner 33
LGuillorme, NYM Todd Zola 23
JJunis, SF Phil Hertz 21
BElder, Atl Grey Albright 13
ARivas, ChC Brian Walton 12
MDavidson, Ari Derek Carty 12
RHelsley, StL Brian Walton 6
JVanMeter, Pit Wilderman/Prior 3
TMatzek, Atl Wilderman/Prior 1
ALopez, Cin Peter Kreutzer 0
OArcia, Atl Peter Kreutzer 0
ArGarcia, Cin Steve Gardner 0
TGott, Mil Peter Kreutzer 0
AMinter, Atl Derek Carty 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
PWisdom, ChC Tim Heaney 127
EPagan, Min Alex Chamberlain 98
ABohm, Phi Scott Engel 70
TEstrada, SF Alex Chamberlain 68
JNaylor, Cle Scott Swanay 67
JFleming, TB Jeff Zimmerman 55
TanScott, Mia Tim Heaney 44
BZimmermann, Bal Tim Heaney 41
SNeuse, Oak Michael Rathburn 35
SBeer, Ari Scott Pianowski 31
DJimenez, Oak Zach Steinhorn 27
NHoerner, ChC Scott Engel 24
NLopez, KC Jeff Zimmerman 19
MBush, Tex Eric Karabell 11
ArGarcia, Cin Scott Engel 5
MKing, NYY Scott Pianowski 4
MCabrera, Det Bret Sayre 2
RStripling, Tor Derek VanRiper 2
JAdon, Was Derek VanRiper 0
JTrevino, NYY Rob Leibowitz 0
NAllen, Oak Rob Leibowitz 0

Mixed 15 Draft

Player Team Bid
DJimenez, Oak Tim McLeod 59
JNaylor, Cle Adam Ronis 58
DLynch, KC Ray Murphy 36
DBundy, Min Ray Murphy 35
GSheets, CWS Adam Ronis 28
AMunoz, Sea Mike Gianella 28
TyAnderson, LAD Seth Trachtman 25
NHoerner, ChC D.J. Short 25
DVogelbach, Pit Jeff Barton 24
JHicks, StL Charlie Wiegert 23
MChavis, Pit Perry Van Hook 17
CPache, Oak Anthony Perri 17
TLarnach, Min Shelly Verougstraete 15
SNeuse, Oak Seth Trachtman 15
TomMurphy, Sea D.J. Short 10
OMercado, Cle Charlie Wiegert 7
NSolak, Tex Perry Van Hook 7
ZCollins, Tor Adam Ronis 6
BZimmermann, Bal D.J. Short 5
JJunis, SF Perry Van Hook 4
JBeeks, TB Perry Van Hook 4
MLorenzen, LAA Shelly Verougstraete 3
KFarmer, Cin Scott White 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
MKing, NYY Nick Pollack 16
JNaylor, Cle Nick Pollack 7
TEstrada, SF Greg Jewett 9
HDozier, KC Ariel Cohen 44
BZimmermann, Bal Ariel Cohen 43
TyAnderson, LAD Clay Link 23
DLynch, KC Andrea LaMont 31
KFreeland, Col Andrea LaMont 29
AHicks, NYY Frank Stampfl 21
JJunis, SF Paul Sporer 6

Mixed 12 Draft (IP and Saves+Holds)

Player Team Bid
FReyes, Cle Chris Clegg 211
MCanha, NYM Chris Clegg 79
MMikolas, StL Brian Entrekin 68
JrgLopez, Bal Brian Entrekin 67
BZimmermann, Bal Brian Entrekin 56
SBeer, Ari Jake Ciely 46
BMarsh, LAA Brian Entrekin 43
DRobertson, ChC Andy Behrens 32
TEstrada, SF Jennifer Piacenti 26
IKinerFalefa, NYY Sara Sanchez 26
SNeuse, Oak Brian Entrekin 24
NHoerner, ChC Jake Ciely 18
DVogelbach, Pit Brian Entrekin 18
JMateo, Bal Chris Clegg 17
MKing, NYY Chris Towers 11
CWalker, Ari Jake Ciely 9
ZCollins, Tor Chris Clegg 7
BAnderson, Mia Alex Fast 7
SMatz, StL Jake Ciely 7
FMejia, TB Andy Behrens 6

Tout Table: Early Season Performance

Sorry, posting is delayed this week. Hopefully the examples aren’t too outdated.

This week’s query: How do you go about gauging early season performance? What underachiever are you most concerned about?

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): For starters, I’m only looking at K%-BB% but waiting at least four starts until I make a move. For hitters, I’m only looking for changes in playing time (lineup order or platoon). It takes two-months for a hitter’s talent to take shape so I’m in the waiting game a week into the season.

AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): The short answer is I don’t. In normal seasons, I’m usually loathe to make any big roster moves (save for injuries or a clear change in role where a player has clearly lost playing time). In 2022, with the shortened spring, it’s going to be a while. So a leadoff hitter who seemingly can’t make contact with the ball – looking at you, Mr. Grossman – gets an extra week or two to try and recapture his timing before any panic sets in. Marathon. Not a sprint.

Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): I typically do not overreact to anyone’s performance during the first couple weeks of the season unless they are losing playing time. For pitchers, it usually takes a few weeks to build up endurance so I am not concerned about starters going 4 innings or throwing 70 pitches. I do have serious concerns about Jarred Kelenic right now even though we are less than a week into the season. He looked completely overmatched for most of his tenure with the Mariners in 2021. But I figured that experience, along with the fact he would be in the starting lineup everyday this year, would help him mature and figure things out. However, he still looks lost and confused. It is obviously too soon to give up on him, but I am growing concerned that he may not be as good as all the hype that has surrounded him since he was drafted by the Mets. The Mariners have plenty of outfield depth, so it would not be surprising if Kelenic loses playing time if he does not figure things out soon.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @FredZinkieMLB): I look at velocity and K-BB ratio for pitchers. I also look at strikeout rate for hitters, as those who are striking out often could be lost at the plate and might lose playing time. But mostly I’m looking for role and opportunity. I want to find players who are cementing important roles and drop those who have been relegated to smaller roles. The players I’m most concerned about those who needed to bounce back from a bad 2021 season and have started out poorly. Cody Bellinger would be the poster boy for this group.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Bellinger…his rough spring and slow start, until 2 hits Sunday and Joe Adell’s K streak to start season until 2 hits Monday. KikiHernadez is stilllooking for first hit, but he’s always been streaky so no major worry. Urias start in Colorado so no major worry except velo down. Ryu struggled last year, so first start being bad makes me wonder.

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): For me, the most worrisome underachiever has to be Cody Bellinger. From a 1.025 OPS in 2019 to .789 to .542 last season. Then .301 this spring and now .432 out of the gate in 2022. This trend looks like my stock portfolio!

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): The actual results are mostly meaningless. I focus on the underlying skills that stabilize quickest – pitch velocity, batted ball exit velocity, and perhaps changes to batted ball type distribution (ground ball/fly ball rates). Those metrics will tell me if a player’s underlying skills have changed, whether or not the results have been affected yet. It’s wayyyyyy too early to even label players as underachievers so far, let alone be concerned about any of them. I don’t usually start to seriously evaluate results until at least two months into the season.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I don’t even worry about anything except health and playing time until after April. I still rely on projections otherwise. I am not overly worried about a specific player unless they are getting less playing time than expected.

D.J. Short (NBC Sports Edge, @djshort): I’m not focused on results as much as I am on how they are doing it and what opportunities will be like moving forward. It’s much too early to deviate signficantly from what you thought a week ago. I’d say someone like Alec Bohm is concerning because his defense at third base is just so bad and the Phillies have a replacement right there in Bryson Stott. Not that those in mixed leagues were really counting on Bohm in the first place, but some (including myself) were hopeful about a rebound. Limited flexibility in the DH spot really hurts him.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball, @): For Hitters I am just looking at playing time and health – if they are secure in their job, then I expect they will round into expected results. But injuries are a bid and largely unknown problem so I am very concerned about Anthony Rendon, who is supposedly healthy but struggling. I would also be worried about Bellinger IF I owned him, but fortunately don’t. Starting pitchers I give a longer leash, especially with the shortened spring training this year but we are already seeing far too many injuries. I do look closely at relief pitchers early to try and get some clue as to what their usage is and will be, although we haven’t been taught much in four games.

Bret Sayre (Baseball Prospectus, @BretSayreBP): I have a feeling this is going to sound broken record-y with all the bright minds in this article, but in a normal year we’d be a week and a half out from Opening Day and performance concerns or velo dips wouldn’t really be much of a concern. In my mind, none of this matters until at least the fourth week of April and even then, we’d be applying SSS disclaimers to everything we see. In other words, trust your preseason valuations and ask again in mid-May. It’s another weird year.

Vlad Sedler (Fantasy Guru, @rotogut): Not as much performance but am trying to stay wise to pitch count expectations when making lineup decisions this month. For example, certain teams like the Astros have been letting their starting pitchers go a bit deeper into games. We know that leagues can be won or lost by a couple of stats or points at the end of the year. Being mindful to the wins and strikeouts category in the next couple weeks will be imperative and could have end-of-season implications.

Matt Williams (The Athletic, @MattWi77iams): I do not care about early results, at all. The only thing I look at this early is of there has been an obvious change to opportunity (loss of role or playing time) or a tangible change such as mechanics, pitch mix, or velocity. Plate discipline is certainly the most “sticky” early season barometer, so I may keep an eye of strikeout rates (hitters) and K-BB% (pitchers).

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): I’m looking at who’s getting PT and in what circumstances and how are relievers being used. I’m especially looking for usage that was not expected. I’m not worried about anyone (unless it’s a health issue), YET.

Frank Stampfl (Fantasy Pros, @Roto_Frank): I don’t really care much about the actual results but rather what’s under the hood. For example, if a pitcher gets rocked and his velocity/spin rates are way down, that’s something I would pay attention to. For hitters, I like to pay attention to plate discipline early and playing time, specifically with young players. Julio Rodriguez and Spencer Torkelson each have seven strikeouts over their first four games. It doesn’t matter much now but if they continue to struggle this bad for the first 2-3 weeks, we could see them lose playing time.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): I’m not even sure it’s safe to call Cody Bellinger an underachiever at this point, because maybe this is simply who he is. I didn’t buy the dip on Bellinger, so this isn’t a situation that directly affects me. But I don’t have much confidence he’ll surge at any point, not after his miserable spring (5-for-36, 0 XBH, 18 Ks). As for the rest of the player pool, I’m primarily concerned with prospects who start slow and risk demotion.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): This early only thing that matters is health, role or lineup changes. I don’t have Akil Baddoo but would be concerned if I did. He has hit at bottom of order and when Riley Greene is ready they will have a glut of OF after adding Austin Meadows. And major concern…Jonathan Villar…not playing!

Jennifer Piacenti (SI.com, @jenpiacenti): I gauge by whether or not they are better than Cody Bellinger. Kidding. (sort of). For hitters I look for plate discipline, playing time, and where they are being used in the order. Pitchers who show control and go deeper into games this early in the season are the ones that intrigue me.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): The red flags for me are indications that the manager has lost confidence in a player. Akil Baddoo, as Larry mentioned, being dropped down in the batting order after the Tigers acquired Austin Meadows or sitting against a left-hander is a bit concerning. Also, a ton of strikeouts early will make me worry. (Hello Jo Adell.)

Derek VanRiper (The Athletic, @DerekVanRiper): Process stats are key for me. The quality of contact metrics we have now go a long way toward determining whether a player’s slow start is just bad luck, or a hint of a bigger problem. When something stands out in the underlying numbers, I try to dig in and watch video, or at least make a point to follow-up on the player once we have a slightly larger sample to work with. For pitchers, velocity fluctuations are important to me in very small samples. Shane Bieber is the player I’m most concerned about. He’s averaged 90.6 and 91.0 mph on his fastball in his first two starts, respectively, roughly two full ticks from his 2021 velocity and more than 3.0 mph down from his 2020 shortened-season mark (94.1).

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’ll be the bad guy here. Next level MLB metrics are great, but they’re still far more descriptive than predictive. I get trying to be first with prescient analysis, but even using the new information, a paragraph beginning with, “It’s a small sample, but…”, should still be taken with a grain of salt. We all want to force smart analysis into a scenario where it just isn’t time… yet. So-called stabilty points are a huge misnomer. Yes, if you don’t act on an available player, someone else will, but because we want to believe the new metrics are more telling doesn’t make it so.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I have stats I am watching, but honestly I don’t think we’ve had enough games to pass judgement on anything. For hitters I’m keeping a close eye on K% and BB% compared to previous years. Even with that, I don’t feel like I have enough data to pass judgement there, 3-5 games just isn’t a big enough sample size for me to say anyone has changed their approach at the plate. Come back to me in two or three weeks for actual concerns about hitters. For pitchers I do look at pitch changes and velocity drops, but even then it’s important to compare month v. month data because lots of pitchers have variance in season on their pitches. That said, Robbie Ray and Joe Musgrove’s velocity looks down a bit this year, which I am keeping an eye on. If that persists for another start or two I will be very concerned. I would caution putting too much stock into other pitch changes month to month this season, however, considering the sticky stuff crackdown was later in the year so the data isn’t comparing apples to apples.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): As Jeff Zimmerman said above, its K-BB%. That tends to stabilize very quickly, and I particularly look at this for pitchers. I’m also looking for velocity changes and pitch mix changes in pitchers, and how it realtes to their change in performance. For hitters, it is a bit early really, however for stolen bases – I am looking at how often they run. Opportunities tell the story of their willingness to run. Take Luis Robert who already has 4 SB. Cody Belinger is most concerning.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): The only thing that would cause me to reevaluate a Hitter this early in the season would be either an uptick or downturn in playing time (batting much higher or lower than expected in the order would also count). For Starting Pitchers a marked increase or decrease in their velocity. For Relief Pitchers, any Closers who seem to be wresting control of what was previously thought to be a Committee situation. Again though, for the most part it’s too small a sample size to radically change your evaluation of players at this point.

Toby Guevin (BatFlipCrazy Podcast, @batflipcrazy): For pitchers, I’m looking for changes in velocity, pitch mix or new pitches that can change their underlying skill. For hitters, it’s more about any changes in lineup spot and then monitoring plate skills for anything that might change there (o-swing, contact rates), since the samples become meaningful quickest on per pitch metrics.

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): I generally don’t? For pitchers, a severe velocity drop could mean an injury so I’ll watch for that. For hitters, I’m looking at role changes, platoons, etc. that might mean I need to reconsider playing time and overall stat projections. Jo Adell is probably the player I’m most worried about. Between the slump and Joe Maddon’s weird obsession with Taylor Ward, a demotion wouldn’t be surprising.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): With a grain of salt. Some of the best moves that I’ve ever made were the ones that I didn’t make. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. I do look at players that have been dropped by an impatient league manager (we all have them) that are off to a slow start. Top hitters that are off to a slow start like Trea Turner or Bryce Harper are not tradable at this time, but players drafted outside of the first few rounds that I am most concerned about is Adalberto Mondesi and his lack of stolen bases to date. He has 1 SB to date and is batting .167.

Alex Chamberlain (Rotographs, @DolphHauldhagen): Not a lot you can do. But: (1) Has a hitter done what he’s doing at some point before? [For example, if so-and-so has a 0% K through 5 games—can you look at his rolling graphs to see if this has happened before? If not, maybe this is a legitimate improvement.] (2) Has a hitter or pitcher altered his mechanics? [Alex Cobb went to Driveline to clean up his mechanics and train with weighted balls—now he’s throwing harder than ever, in his mid-30s.] (3) Has a pitcher added a pitch, changed pitch usage, added or subtracted velo, changed pitch shape, etc.? [Drew Rasmussen now throws a cutter—and based on my pitch comps for it, it looks like it’s at least an above-average offering.] Otherwise, try not to overreact, which I’m sure we all have not done! No overreactions whatsoever. Nope. None at all.

Adam Ronis (Fantasy Alarm, @AdamRonis): For hitters, it’s about playing time. Cavan Biggio and Jo Adell are the ones who are the concerns as of now. For pitching, I am looking at velocity changes and new pitches. With the abbreviated spring and lack of pitchers getting built up in the spring, it’s difficult to overreact to one or two starts.

Shelly Verougstraete (Dynasty Guru, @ShellyV_643): For pitchers, I’m looking for new pitches, new pitch shape, more (or less) velocity, and K-BB%. For hitters, I look at lineup spot and playing time as playing time is the key to everything. To be honest, it is way too early to freak out if you are in a roto league. The season is a grind! However, if you play in a weekly head-to-head league, you need to be active on the wavier wire if you see any positive (or negative) changes.

Zach Steinhorn (CreativeSports2, @zachsteinhorn): I’m not really concerned about anyone yet, particularly underachieving starting pitchers, who have been hurt by the shortened spring training. Most teams have been limiting their starters to around 75 pitches to this point, so the small sample size factor especially applies to them. Over the first few weeks of the season, I pay most attention to playing time for hitters and closer situations. Saves are becoming harder and harder to predict but sometimes you can guess right and a modest FAAB investment in early-April could net you 25+ saves.

Brian Entrekin (Benched with Bubba, @bdentrek): It is obviously way too early to fully panic, but there are a few things I look at if I am concerned. First, playing time. If a player I am rostering is not playing as much as I thought they would, I am starting to get concerned. For hitters, I am also concerned with poor plate discipline, aka- striking out a lot. When it comes to pitchers I watch velocity. If the velocity is down a bit, I begin to watch closer as my concern grows. I am not overly concerned with too many players yet, but Jo Adell would concern me as he is being platooned and having trouble with the swing and miss.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): With an abbreviated spring training, I’m trying not to overreact to some of the cold starts we are seeing. Managers are handling their pitchers with kid gloves and many hitters are still working on their timing. When it comes to evaluating the hot starts, I look for fundamental changes in certain guys, like Jesus Luzardo, Tylor Megill and Alex Cobb all seeing upticks in velocity. Guys who develop a new pitch or alter their pitch-mix are also ones to watch. I’m in on those guys as opposed to just watching some ham-n-egger who has a nice outing in a soft match-up. For hitters off to hot starts, many of them like Steven Kwan, I’m ready to sell to some poor sucker who doesn’t understand that they’re chasing yesterday’s points. Kwan, for example, doesnt have a lot of power or speed and he’s certainly not going to be hitting over .300 in a month’s time. Can’t say there’s an underachiever I’m concerned about, but with all these closers gettting beaten up, we could be looking at some higher-end guys getting bumped soon enough.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): I try not to over think the first few games of the season. The sample is too small to draw any major conclusions. My concerns at this point are the injuries to pitchers which can be traced back to the shortened spring training. Players like Patino, Walker, Giolito have all gone down and one has to wonder was the 3.5 weeks of spring training a cause and which pitcher will be next.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): This isn’t mind-breaking stuff – I mostly look to exit velocities and plate discipline for hitters, more to get a sense for what’s been weird rather than looking for breakouts just yet. For pitchers, velocity, repertoire, pitch usage, spin rate, anything really on Alex’s Tableau Leaderboard. I’m concerned about more pitchers than I can name. Some of them will get their missing velocity back. Some of them won’t. And some of them will injure themselves TRYING to get their velocity back.