Tout Daily Picks: Cheap Pitching to Stack Coors

It’s the second week of Period 4 with another three Golden Tickets on the line. Here are some of the players the Touts are counting on to reach the halfway point of the period in good shape.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Matt Strahm – In full fledged WTF mode. Strahm and Reynaldo Lopez. Stacking Coors, nothing to lose at this point.

Hitter: Yasmani Grandal – Not a fan of the Coors catchers, but am a fan of a guy batting leadoff in another great hitter’s venue.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)

Pitcher: Joe Musgrove – Kind of a gamble, but the price is really right.

Hitter: Trea Turner – I’m not buying the Gallen hype and Turner could run wild.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez – With a Coors game on the slate, I like to really pay down for my second starter. Lopez may get beaten up by the strong lineups, but he’s thrived against the weaker ones this year and the Tigers definitely rate. He’s faced them twice this season and only allowed two earned runs over 12 innings with a whopping 22 strikeouts. I’ll give him a shot at such a low price.

Hitter: Max Kepler – I dig a lot of the lefty bats for the Twins, but Kepler definitely stands out against Daniel Mengden. He got a precautionary day off yesterday with a minor ankle sprain, but is expected to be fine and return to the top of the order Tuesday. His numbers against right-handed pitching look delicious — .927 OPS with a .381 wOBA — and had a pair of two-hit games right before the day off.

Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)

Pitcher: Patrick Corbin – According to my data, the Marlins have MLB’s worst OPS vs. groundball pitchers at .601

Hitter: Mike Zunino – Pairing Corbin with Charlie Morton, I need to save salary. Zunino has a decent chance to pop a homer @ $2600.

Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty)

Pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez – Lopez isn’t a good pitcher, but he’s in a great spot tonight with one of the cheapest salaries on the board. He faces a terrible DET offense that is the best in baseball for pumping up a pitcher’s strikeouts, and Lopez will have an extreme pitchers’ umpire to further help in that regard. There’s blow-up risk, but he’s easily the top point-per-dollar SP on the slate

Hitter: Austin Meadows – Coors will draw the most attention, and for good reason, but the Rays face Asher Wojciechowski and project for the third most runs on the slate. THE BAT projects Woj as the worst SP in a current major league rotation. He projects for a 6.00 context-neutral ERA, just slightly worse than Josh Rogers, who got obliterated by San Diego in a spot start recently. It’s a tough hitting environment, but a good offense against the worst pitcher with solid prices should do more than enough.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ)

Pitcher: Charlie Morton – Far and away HQ’s top-rated pitcher today, for just a shade over 10k. Quite reasonable.

Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford)

Pitcher: Charlie Morton – While the Orioles have not been as bad as they were to start the year, their active roster still strikes out at 23.8% against right handed pitchers. On the year, Morton has been very solid, striking out batters at a 29.9% rate. The game taking place at the Trop is a nice added lift to Morton.

Hitter: Joc Pederson – Taylor Clarke has been allowing over two home runs per nine overall this year and 2.61 per nine against left handed batters. He has an xFIP of 6.52 against left handed battes as well. The Dodgers have a few lefty power hitters I’d be happy going to, but if Joc Pederson leads off, he’ll be my favorite. All 20 of his home runs on the year have come against right handed pitchers.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Patrick Corbin – Corbin seems back on track and the Corbin that we love to insert into our fantasy lineups. After 3 straight losses, he’s bounced back with 2 straight wins and 17 Ks.. He takes on the Miami Marlins at home tonight. I think that he’s priced right. Also rolling with Charlie Morton.

Hitter: Javier Baez – Over the past 5 days, Javier Baez has a Hard Hit Rate of 60%. The league average is 35.5%. Baez is a top 10 hitter over the past 2 weeks.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Matt Strahm – Coming off a big strikeout performance last week, Strahm now gets a home start against the Giants. And as much as the Giants looked good against Logan Allen last night, I’ll keep taking my chances there.

Hitter: Fernando Tatis Jr. – Too bad we can’t used FanDuel’s pricing on Tatis, where he’s only $4,100. But I’m still going to roll with Tatis against Tyler Beede. It’s just might price me out of using Charlie Morton – which is a pretty big debate I’m having. (Narrator: … it did price him out of Morton and into … Joe Musgrove. Yikes.)

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper)

Pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez – Lopez has two 28+ point games in his last 10, but he’s failed to reach double digits in those other eight turns. While I think it’s possible that his ownership rate will get pushed up with a lot of lineups trying to maximize Coors exposure, my hope is that Matt Strahm will be the cheap pitcher of choice for the largest share of the entries in tournaments, leaving Lopez as a tournament-viable option.

Hitter: Michael Brantley – $4.5K in Colorado for Brantley is very cheap. He’s the most chalky bat in my lineup tonight, and it’s not even close. Overall, I think you can do well on this slate limiting your COL/HOU exposure and taking advantage of several hitter-friendly environments and damage-prone arms on this slate.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)

Pitcher: Jack Flaherty – He’s really not “$7600 on DraftKings” bad.

Hitter: Jose Martinez – Matt Carasiti is getting the start but lefty Wade LeBlanc is expected to serve as the bulk reliever for Seattle. Martinez has been a bit of a letdown in season-long leagues but is batting .349/.391/.628 vs. LHP this season and .335/.405/.572 against lefties for his career.

Who’s Winning Tout Wars NL, Midseason 2019 Edition

Phil Hertz holds a small lead over Brian Walton as we start the season’s second half. How did the league line up in June?

June 2019 standings for Tout NL

Phil and Brian were neck and neck last month, and for the whole season.

July 1 standings.

Scott Wilderman and Derek Carty have worked their way almost into contention, and this could be a mess when we revisit next month.

Who’s Winning Tout Wars AL, Midseason 2019 Edition

TOUT AL

Rob Leibowitz dominated Tout AL in June.

Standings for the month of June in Tout AL

That helped him climb past Jason Collette into first place. All the credit can’t go the Eric Sogard, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Minor and Justin Verlander helped, too, but Sogard’s career month certainly didn’t hurt.

Year to date standings.

Tout Daily: A Giant Bummer

It’s the first week of Period 4, everyone has a clean slate. Nine Golden Tickets have been awarded, three more are on the line the next four weeks. Here are some of the choices the Touts are counting on for a place in the Finals.

Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford)

Pitcher: Max Scherzer – While his price point may be a tad prohibitive, it’s hard to see a pitcher in a better spot than Mad Max tonight. It is true that the Marlins are simply middle of the pack when it comes to K% against RHP on the year, but Scherzer sports a 38.9% K rate against right hand batters. The Marlins could potentially run out eight right handers in their lineup tonight. For cash games, a Scherzer/Bumgarner pairing may be pretty popular.

Hitter: Aaron Hicks – If we’re paying up for Scherzer, we’re going to have to find some cheaper bats to chase homeruns with on this slate. While Hicks isn’t a bargain, at 4k he represents one of the cheaper Yankees options on the night. Over his career, Clayton Richard has yielded 1.27 homeruns per nine to right handed batters. New York has an implied total of 7.3 runs. Hicks has sufficient power from the right side against left handed batters and should see the underbelly of the Jays bullpen early.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner – Chalkier than a batter’s box before the game starts but I don’t care. The Rox have struggled on the road versus LHP for the past several seasons.

Hitter: Franmil Reyes – Today’s DFS is all about the homer, so is the Orioles pitching staff. Reyes is reasonable priced from the five-hole.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner – There are a couple of expensive starting pitchers tonight, that I would love to roster, but struggle to complete an entire lineup that I feel comfortable with. That being said, I’m starting Madison Bumgarner (SF): $8,200 vs. COL. He’s at home and facing a Colorado team that is a lot worse on the road than at home when facing left-handed pitchers. The rockies have a 30.0% strikeout rate versus lefties on the road, which is the 2nd worse in MLB.

Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton – Giancarlo Stanton is back and hit his first home run of the season last night. He faces lefty Clayton Richard tonight and Stanton owns a lifetime .500 BA against him. Only $4,600 tonight. Yes please.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ)

Pitcher: Andrew Heaney – Pretty nice spot for Heaney at home for the Reds, will take a shot at him re-discovering the high-K form he flashed in his first couple of starts off the DL.

Hitter: Francisco Mejia – I really like the SD stack in general, but Mejia at 3300 in Camden (vs crappy O’s pitching) is a true gift.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner – Joining the heard on MadBum. Struggling with my choice as the second pitcher – I’ve switched my choice there multiple times, but I’m trying to find someone cheap so that I can afford as many Yankees as possible.

Hitter: Aaron Judge – Judge hasn’t homered yet since his return, but it’s Clayton Richard at home, and he’s underpriced at $4,700.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Shane Bieber – Bieber has 116 Ks in 91IP including 20 strikeouts in his last 2 starts. Kansas City is 25th in runs per game and OPS and averages 8.6 strikeouts per game.

Hitter: Jose Altuve – For $3,900 he faces Trevor Williams who allowed 7 runs in his last start. Altuve has 7 hits over his last 4 games including a home run and 2 doubles.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)

Pitcher: Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has been hit-or-miss all season, but I’ve heard some “bad stuff ’bout the Mets” lately so I’m all-in on a Philly rout tonight.

Hitter: Jose Altuve – Just off the IL and just $3900, I like Altuve and the Astros against Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams. The former AL MVP has seven hits in his last four games, including a homer on Sunday.

Tout Table: Young Guns

This week’s question revolves around some of the young arms making their debut recently.

Several young pitchers have debuted recently including Adbert Alzolay, Zac Gallen, Logan Allen and Jordan Yamamoto. Who of this group interests you the most and are there any other young hurlers to keep tabs on?

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Neither of the four really excite me enough to consider adding in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower. But Gallen is the most interesting solely because his strikeout rate spiked at Triple-A this year and it was fully supported by a surge in SwStrk%. That validates the legitimacy of the 30%+ strikeout rate, as it’s unlikely driven by good fortune, or a heavy reliance on called or foul strikes. Still, his pre-2019 metrics were pedestrian enough that I’d only consider investing in 15-team mixed and deeper. Otherwise, he’s really no better than your cookie cutter streaming option that’s seemingly always available in shallower formats.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): These are good questions for NL-only 12 team leagues. I am in leagues where I have lost Kyle Hendricks and Pablo Lopez in the last week and innings are of course at a premium. In leagues like that, owners replacing starters must take a flyer on pitchers like Gallen, who have had terrific Triple-A metrics this season. Yamamoto is no slouch, either and I certainly did snap him up the week before and am hoping for the best. Logan Allen came into 2019 as the one you would take from this list, and his is probably already on reserve lists in these deeper leagues. Allen might have the most staying power as well. Finally, I do not have any confidence that Alzolay can hold the job because the Cubs are trying to win now and have a veteran group, so once Kyle Hendricks comes back, Alzolay will almost certainly go back.

Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): None of the four really excite me in shallow leagues (12-teams or less) but I’d consider adding Gallen and perhaps Yamamoto in 15-team leagues. Gallen in particular has the skill set that I look for in a fantasy pitcher. At the very least I’d like to see more. The young arm I’m still waiting on is Jesus Luzardo. Once he’s healthy I’m expecting a top 5 pitcher to emerge.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): I’m with Tim on shallow leagues. In an NL-only, I might go with Allen as my top choice.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball, @): I am going to disagree with my Tout brethren about these young pitcher being added in 15 team leagues – Having seen Yamamoto pitch in the Arizona Fall League and watched his progress, I was all in on him last week in the Tout Mixed Draft League. Unfortunately I lost my bid for him in my home NL only league, but I will try again for Gallen this week. BTW Gallen was one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues to date this year and his first outing was fine. Sure their W potentials on the Marlins is not great but a look at free agent pitcher lists in 15 team mixed will not give you many better choices.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I side with Perry. We old fogies may not like it, but today’s fantasy game isn’t designed to wait and see. Someone will take the chance. Conservative gets you middle of the pack. It’s unclear if Allen will stay up, but at some point he will be and it’s worth being aggressive. It’s worth being aggressive on Gallen right now. I don’t see the whiffs from Yamamoto so he’s third for me. Other than the obvious Luzardo, Forrest Whitley and Dylan Cease, I’m monitoring Justus Sheffield as the Mariners are pot-committed to give him a chance (he’s still struggling at Double-A) and my longshot is 26-year old southpaw Kyle Hart, a Red Sox farmhand. Hart isn’t dominant, but he’s done well in Double-A and now with Pawtucket. He’s old for the levels, but if Brian Johnson struggles, I can see Hart getting a shot, especially if Nate Eovaldi has another setback.

Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): Gallen for me. 1.77 ERA and 12:1 K/BB in PCL. And now he gets to pitch in a pitcher’s park. Sign me up.

Tim McLeod (PattonandCo, @TimothyLMc): I’m with Perry and Todd. A quick look at the Free Agent pool of available SP in 15-team Mixed Leagues and it becomes apparent that these kids simply can’t be ignored. Allen and Gallen are my preferred choices with Yamamoto just slightly below those two. Alzolay will be heading back to Triple-A when Hendricks returns, so minimal interest. Jesus Luzardo, Dylan Cease, and even Brendan McKay have my attention for the second half. I know McKay is a Ray, which normally means we don’t see him early, but in a close race they might need that arm in September.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Yamamoto was impressive in two starts against the Cardinals. I’ll be interested in seeing how he does against the Phillies Sunday . If he shuts them down also, he could be major league ready. There is hesitation , as he ( as Gallen) pitch for the offensively challenged Marlin, whose bullpen is also less than desirable.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I like Gallen of the four. MiLB 2019: 1.77/0.71 in 91.1 innings, .153 BAA, 112 K against 17 walks, all in the PCL. I’m especially positive here because he bumped his K/9 from around 9 K/9 pre-2019 to 11.0, cut his walks from 2.4 bb/9 to 1.7, and as a result saw his Command Ratio leap from 3.8 to 6.6. I’m starting to get the feeling that MIA might be onto something in drafting and developing pitchers. I’ve seen analysis noting that Allen’s awful 5.15/1.44 decimals were inflated by two horrendous starts to open the year, which was true (11 earnies and 18 baserunners in 5.0 innings (19.80/3.60); since then: 3.84/1.26). But here’s the thing: In those nine subsequent starts, he had two more stinkers (5.1 combined innings, 11 hits, a walk, 5 HR), making him seem risky from a consistency perspective.

Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): Zac Gallen seems to be the consensus choice and it’s one that makes sense: He’s got a wide-open path to a rest-of-year rotation spot, he’ll call one of the most pitching-friendly environments his home, and he could probably double his current innings total (majors and minors) before the Marlins think about shutting him down. Sign me up, including for Logan Allen if I’m ranking them. As for “what’s next,” I don’t think Jesus Luzardo is getting enough attention. Had he not gotten hurt, he’d have made the A’s out of spring training, and the Frankie Montas suspension does open up a spot for Luzardo as soon as he’s healthy.

Scott Engel (Rotoballer, @scotteTheKing): I like Yamomoto. He has some really good movement on his pitches and he is not easy for opponents to pick up. Allen was impressive as well and while he works in a pitcher’s park, I want to see more before I commit to backing him

Nando Di FIno (The Athletic, @nandodifino): I am very much on board with Zac Gallen. I think the strikeout breakthrough is real and he’s exhibited nice enough control through the minors for me to feel safe in him translating that to MLB. But what stands out to me most is his 1.77 ERA this season in the PCL. The ERAs in the PCL are insane right now, and meanwhile here’s Gallen with a sub-2 ERA. I don’t think you can ignore that. When everyone else is getting completely pounded to cartoonish levels, you have a pitcher who is an extreme outlier now coming into a home park that should play to his strengths. As far as anyone else to watch? I would’ve said Elieser Hernández, but he’s also up. Maybe J.P. Feyereisen, if the Yankees make a deal and he’s part of the package that goes to a team without a closer?

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): Jordan Yamamoto is my click to pick. He now has won his first 3 games he’s piched in at the major league level this season. Impressive victories over the Cardinals twice, and now the Phillies.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Alzolay and Allen interest me more than Gallen and Yamamoto. However, there are a number of other options who could be returning from the IL or minors at some point this summer who’d also interest me – e.g. – Manaea, Reyes, De Leon, Lamet, Luzardo, and Puk. All else being equal I’d rather have a pitcher who hasn’t missed an extended period of time due to injury, but I feel the ceiling of the pitchers in the second group generally exceeds the ceiling of the pitchers in the first group, and at this point in the season, the ceiling concerns me more than the expected projection.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): Of the group mentioned Zac Gallen intriques me the most. In AAA he averaged over 11 K/s per 9 and less than two walks per nine innings. However the most impressive stat is less than 1 home run allowed per 9 innings. Anthony Kay of the Mets is someone I am monitoring. The dysfunction continues and players like Vargas and Wheeler could possibly be traded by mid-July and Kay is the Mets best pitching prospect.He dominated AA this season and has struggled a bit in 5 AAA innings but as he adjusts the lefty with high strikeout potential could receive a late season call-up.

Vlad Sedler (Fantasy Guru Elite, @rotogut): As far as fantasy relevance for this season, I’d rank them Gallen, Yamamoto, Alzolay, Allen. Gallen is the clear favorite of the group because of his pedigree and domination in Triple-A thus far. He’s the guy most likely to be an SP2 and top-100 overall pick in your fantasy drafts two years from now. Yamamoto has certainly dazzled through his first couple starts, but these final rotation spots are competitive and he’ll have to keep cruising in order to keep it. Alzolay and Allen are talented but are much more likely to be demoted – Allen likely first since he could still use some more seasoning in the minors and Dinelson Lamet should be back in the rotation soon.

Lawr Michaels to be inducted into the FSGA Hall of Fame

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association announced Lawr Michaels as the 2019 inductee into the Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame. The ceremony will take place on Friday, June 28 in New York City at the 2019 FSGA Summer Conference.

Tout Wars own Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf will commemorate the announcement this Tuesday night, June 25 on Colton and the Wolfman, heard on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio from 9 PM – 11 PM ET. Several special guests will share memories of Lawr in advance of this well deserved honor.

Tout Daily: Laying the Woodruff

It’s the last week of Period 3 with three more Golden Tickets in the balance. Here’s who the Touts are counting on to get them into the Championship Tournament.

Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)

Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff – I have him as the best pitcher tonight regardless of price, against the compulsively whiffing Padres.

Hitter: Robinson Cano – Healthy and hitting, a super-bargain at $3100.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff – He’s striking out 29% of the batters he’s facing and goes against a Padres team that is 21st in runs per game and 27th in strikeouts per game with 9.77.

Hitter: Ramon Laureano – Laureano leads an Oakland stack against Ynoa and his 5.02 ERA and less than 7 Ks/9. Laureano has 8 HRs vs RHP this season and 4 HRs 4SBs in his last 15 games.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Brett Anderson – Fading Woodruff and need some additional differentiation

Hitter: Michael Conforto – Seems to work for Phil

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Julio Teheran – Has an ERA under 2.00 in 8 consecutive games. He is one of the hottest starting pitchers on one of the hottest teams right now with the Atlanta Braves owning the NL East.

Hitter: Ian Desmond – In the past 2 weeks, Ian Desmond has been on a tear, batting .386 with 3 home runs and 15 RBI.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)

Pitcher: Jack Flaherty – Due to rebound at home vs light hitting Marlins, and hopefully tack up 7 + k’s

Hitter: Matt Carpenter – Another homer, who I hope homers again tonight. I expect the Cardinal hitters to have a better approach tonight than they did against Yamamoto last week.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Mitch Keller – Last round of this scoring period, need to take some chances. Keller at least gets strikeouts and is facing the Tigers.

Hitter: Dan Vogelbach – Matchup against Homer Bailey? Yes please.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Jack Flaherty – Come on. It’s Miami! The Fish stink. K-rate should be solid with minimal damage via hits/walks on DK

Hitter: Jorge Bonifacio – How about this tasty dart? Kikuchi pitches to a ton of contact and Bonifacio is hot out of the gate following his call-up. He’s got four hits, including two doubles and 3 RBI in his last two games.