Who’s Winning Tout Wars, May 6, 2019 Edition

With a bit more than a month passed in the 2019 season, Tout Wars standings are starting to define themselves a bit. Here’s a look at the teams in the lead:

Tout AL: Jason Collette has a slim lead over Patrick Davitt. Here are the standings through May 5:

Tout Mixed Auction: Derek VanRiper has a slim lead over Eric Karabell. The standings:

Tout NL: Brian Walton has a lead over Grey Albright.

Tout Mixed Draft: Rudy Gamble is winning, of course. DJ Short and Scott White are trying to make it interesting.

Tout H2H: Clay Link has a four game lead over Ryan Bloomfield and Ian Kahn.

Tout Table: Correcting an Inadvertent Drop

This week, the Touts address an administrative conundrum:

How should it be handled when someone inadvertently drops a player?

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): As long the person immediately admits the issues, they should be added back. Weird stuff happens. If the league or commish is going to be an ass about it, make sure they state their hardline take in the league rules. At least everyone knows the rules Nazi will be watching.

Alex Chamberlain (Rotofraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): As a dingus who has done this more than once before (big thumbs, small phone screen, cut me some slack!), I think as long as you announce it to the league and/or commissioner immediately after the transaction occurs, there shouldn’t be an issue. If you don’t notice that you accidentally dropped someone and then make a fuss over it after another owner claims him (which, if you have FAAB or even an 48-hour waiver claim buffer, is PLENTY of time to notice), then that’s on you. Technology is meant to facilitate our fantasy baseball experience but sometimes it can backfire.

AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): I used to work at a casino in the poker room and we always operated under the concepts of “immediate reporting” and “significant subsequent action.” That same standard should be applied here. If a fantasy manager inadvertently drops a player and immediately reports the mistake to the commissioner (or other appropriate authority), he should be returned. Mistakes happen. If the report comes a few hours later, he should also be returned, so long as there hasn’t been anything significant to happen in the interim (news that said player has been promoted from Triple-A or will become the closer, etc.). Easy peasy.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): Here is the link to my write up about the poll, and the question. https://www.fantasyguru.com/rays-ramblings-reversing-drop-mistakes

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): In the average league an accidental drop should be reversed as long as the accident is brought to the league’s attention immediately after it occurs. Days or even hours later is too long not to notice the mistake and at that point the released player is now fair game.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Typically, I’ll undo the move so long as I’m informed immediately of the mistake. Same for accidental trades. If there’s a delay that makes it seem as if the owner is maybe pulling a fast one, I might refuse. I’ll also add language to our constitution when necessary to govern these sorts of scenarios. If you care enough about your league to make a fuss about undoing an accidental add/drop, then you should have a constitution.

Anthony Perri (Fantistics, @Anthony_Perri): It all depends on the circumstance. If it’s brought to the attention of the league commissioner within the first few minutes, there should be no question. However there are special circumstances that should be taken into consideration, including the website commissioner product.. For instance, one website commissioner product that I’m in, has a setup that separates the difference between a drop and a reserve as “Res” and “Rel” (when setting the lineup). I dropped Mike Trout one year and wasn’t aware until someone pointed it out to me, my league mates were sympathetic and understood that it was a clear mistake.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): If the fantasy owner immediately gives the league notice, the player should be awarded back by the commissioner. Certainly, if the mistake is alerted to within the hour – there should be no issue to reverse the transaction. I think that reversing an inadvertent drop should also be allowed for the overnight right after a waiver period before lineups come out the next day. The exception would be if some “news” – good or bad – has come out about any player involved. The main idea is that if it can be determined that it was accidental, an owner should not be penalized – whether it be in a big money league or just in a social league. As an example of a correction rule – In one of my leagues, we instituted a “Four Hour” rule for lineups (which all lock at the start of the scoring period). If you inadvertently set a wrong lineup, you can alert the commissioner to make a change on your behalf up to 4 hours thereafter.

Bret Sayre (Baseball Prospectus, @BretSayreBP): Your league commissioner should have a period of time during which they’ll reverse inadvertent drops (I would recommend an hour or two), during which the owner can raise the issue if it was indeed inadvertent. In the end, we’re supposed to be having fun here. That said, if the player has any playing time or any news comes out during the period between the drop and the notification that it was inadvertent, they’re out of luck.

Seth Trachtman (Rotoworld, @sethroto): As a commissioner, I prefer to give the owner a mulligan if I catch the drop before someone else picks up the player. The same goes for an accidental pickup, like picking up the wrong Rougned Odor (cough, cough). However, if another owner picks up the player before the accidental drop is identified and the accident impacts multiple owners, usually at that point I’d let the moves stand. I qualify all of this by saying I think each unique situation should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. Honest mistakes do happen, and decisions should be made with that in mind.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): As long as there is quick, near immediate acknowledgment of the erroneous drop, it should be corrected.

Michael Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): As the Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, I have had this scenario submitted to me for resolution in the past. I believe a GM who inadvertently drops a player and immediately recognized the error by alerting the commissioner and entire league should be allowed to have the player placed back on their roster. Mistakes happen and people click the wrong buttons at times, so as long as the error is acknowledged right away with valid justification then it is fine to revert them back onto the roster. The exception to this is if there is breaking news about that player which would lead one to believe it was not an error, but rather seller’s remorse. The commissioner will have to use his/her discretion in evaluating those circumstances and decide whether it is more likely a mistake or regret.

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): If the problem is brought up in a timely manner, the move should be reversed – PLUS – the commissioner/SWAT should inform the league what happened so there is no misunderstanding later. This latter point is often disregarded, but the best leagues have open communications.

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): If the issue is raised within 30 minutes of the error, make the change. If the person didn’t realize the move until later that day or the next day, too much could have happened in that time to reverse it. Every site gives you a confirmation step before you do something, so two-click accidents are tough to make.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): Per Collette Another major industry league is hosted on a website which doesn’t have this safeguard. I know because I “tested” it out this year.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): This actually just happened to me as I ‘fat-thumbed” my way into dropping Domingo Santana while using a site’s app. I reached out to the commish who said he understood and told everyone in the league to not put in any waiver claims. If the person who made the mistake reaches out to the commish immediately, then the commish should be able to simply reverse the transaction. Unfortunately, some websites do not allow the commish to override a transaction which means it drags out and, like in my case, when an owner who “forgot” to withdraw his waiver claim gets the player, it then becomes a headache to make a series of transactions to right one simple wrong.

Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated, @MBeller): This one is pretty simple. So long as the offending owner addresses it in a timely manner, the move should be reversed. This is fantasy baseball, and while we all want to win, we’re mainly here to have fun. It’s no fun being ruled over with an iron fist.

Greg Ambrosius (NFBC, @GregAmbrosius): In the NFBC and NFFC we realize that mistakes on cuts can happen, especially with so many people doing transactions from their phones. If contacted immediately, we do allow the cut player to be replaced and we tell the league members what just happened. The FAAB pickup can NEVER be altered, whether that involves the price spent or the player that was picked up. But the cut is easier to replace and is allowed in high-stakes for the fairness of the league and the fairness of the overall contest. Having a superstar in one league’s FAAB pool due to a human error doesn’t help the integrity of the overall contest. Correct the error and keep that league whole. A few years ago in football some teams owned both Adrian Petersons or both Steve Smiths and there were some owners who cut the wrong Adrian Peterson or the wrong Steve Smith. Simple correction and one that just uses common sense to correct.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): As others have stated the process should be explicitly written in the league’s Constitution. Admittedly, Tout Wars fails in this regard, at least for now. I’m sure we’ll formalize our policy which is to indeed reverse moves if notified right away. As a few have shared, not all sites are as user-friendly as others and we’re in an era where many manage teams over their phone. As a desktop guy, i often need to remember this is the case. That said, the overriding approach used in Tout Wars is each participant is ultimately responsible for his/her team so if the mistake isn’t caught immediately, it may not be reversed. It then becomes incumbent open the fantasy manager to “check their work”, especially if they’re playing one one of the more error-prone platforms.

Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): As much as we all compete with one another and hope for our opponents to “give up” on a player and put him on waivers, this is supposed to be a friendly game. If a mistake is made and reported in a timely manner to the commissioner, then a mistaken drop should be reversed. Timely is where the sticking point is but a few hours shouldn’t be a big deal.

Dr. Roto (Scout Fantasy, @DrRoto): If the person catches the mistake quickly enough I am always open to reversing the move. No sense punishing someone for a minor error. If it gets caught after 2-3 days, that becomes more or a case by case issue.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I’m all for returning the inadvertently waived player if the Commish is notified immediately. The issue is what “immediately” means. I’ve seen references to “half an hour” “quickly enough,” “before anyone else picks the player up,” etc. I hate to be a stickler for “da rules,” but it’s important that there BE a rule here so there’s no post-move bickering about how soon was soon enough. Where the waste solids hit the A/C is when the player is picked up by someone else. Personally, I think the move should be final and irrevocable after the transactions deadline has passed.

Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): I once drove my wife to the airport but dropped her off at the mall by accident. We’re still happily married

Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): There are two scenarios to think through IMO. If we are talking about an average to mediocre player, as long as the owner recognized the mistake before another owner picks him up, I am okay with giving him back to the erring owner. If we are talking a top player, I would rather give him back to the original owner than potentially decide a league’s fate because one guy was on his phone when dufus owner dropped Trevor Bauer.

Tim McLeod (PattonandCo, @TimothyLMc): Fess up right away, and simply fix the error.

Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): In all of theses cases it seems that common sense should prevail. If a player were to drop a top player by a slip of the finger, and not notice till the next day, I would always try to rectify the situation. This is a fun game. It’s important to keep it that way.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): I’m with the majority. As long as the error occurs before anyone picks up the player again, I will correct it. Playing too cutthroat is a way to destroy a league. Correcting mistakes and keeping the game fun and non confrontational is more important in the long run. Also I consider it more of a commissioner’s discretion situation which doesn’t need to be explicitly stated in the rules. The commish should always have the ability to make decisions that are in the bests interest of the league.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): What if a league has a N/A spot for minor leaguers. Someone drops Mallex Smith. Then, they notice he was sent to the minors. Then, the ask for the drop to be changed cause it was a mistake. Was it a mistake, or did the person just not pay attention and note that Smith was sent to the minors? How could we then know if the person actually made a mistake by hitting the wrong button, or, perhaps they just didn’t do their homework and didn’t notice that Smith had been demoted?

Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): As long as the error is brought up right away, I definitely think the person who made the drop should be able to get the player back. Are we really that serious that we are trying to take advantage of someone’s error to win? Everyone is human, everyone makes mistakes, as long as it isn’t hours later, put the player back on their roster.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Depends on the game. Friend leagues ( like Tout, FSTA, Labr), no harm, no Foul and if caught before any other moves get affected, change it back. But in bigger money leagues ( like NFBC, High $ leagues, etc.), where there are rules are established , rules have to be followed or the games operator has to maintain the integrity of the games.

Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Common Sense should prevail

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath): As long as the mistake was recognized within timely fashion, (24 hours) the move should be ok to reverse.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): Even the best players occasionally make a mistake. As the commissioner in LABR, I always give the owner the benefit of the doubt if the error is identified promptly. No one wants to win or lose a league on a technicality.

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): I’m with the consensus here. If it’s a mistake and the owner alerts the commish of the mistake within a reasonable amount of time, it should be reversed. I’ve made this mistake before, and I’ve known other experienced players who have made this mistake, too. Fix it and move on.

Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): Echoing a lot of what’s been said: so long as the manager in question reports the error to the commissioner promptly, the player should be returned to that team. As to what “promptly” means, it’s almost always easy to tell when it was an honest mistake versus regretting the drop. As to Ray’s follow-up question, moving players into IL or N/A spots on mobile can often trip some people up, myself included, so I’m understanding with that. But specifically with the Mallex Smith example, it’d come down to what time the drop was made. If it was at noon ET on Tuesday and I get that e-mail at 6 p.m., the drop needs to stand because Smith’s demotion wasn’t formally announced until just after 5. And, yes, I do occasionally get managers wanting to reclaim a player whose status changed after the drop — that shouldn’t be allowed.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Not much to add. Even in cutthroat leagues, if the owner reports things right away, then correcting the error is fine. A couple of notes, I might still charge for the move or impose a fine, since it will be extra work to correct. Also I might come out differently if the same owner did this more than once or (or twice).

Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): I think this depends on the league you are playing in. If this is a fun league with friends, then you take it back. If there is serious money involved, then you don’t.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I included a rule in my league’s constitution that if the owner who made the mistake notifies me within 10 minutes of the error, I would reverse it.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): I think it depends on how competitive the league is/how understanding other owners are. I generally try to put myself in other owner’s shoes and give them the same benefit of the doubt I’d want to be shown if I were the owner in question. I think the timeliness of notification and common sense should be the 2 overriding criteria in such cases. A companion problem that just came up in a home league (AL-only) I play in that has $100 FAAB – the other owner won some marginal player with a bid of $55, then claimed he’d meant to bid only $5 on the player in question but had fat-fingered his entry. After determining that no other owner had bid more than $5 the Commissioner let him keep the player for $5, which seemed fair to all of us.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ): If identified immediately, then I think it’s fine to roll back an inadvertent drop. They are generally easy to correct with no consequence to other players. Other categories of errors, like fat-fingered bids, are obviously tougher to undo. But when it’s a clear error identified in a timely fashion, I’m a benevolent commissioner.

Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis): As long as the mistake is made publicly on the message board or in an email to the league immediately, it can be fixed. Unfortunately, in a league with significant money on the line this might not be good enough. As always, address this mishap now and come up with a rule so there’s no controversy in the future.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): If a league manager makes a mistake of dropping a player, I have no problem adding them back to their roster. But the league manager must contact the commish immediately and inform him of the mistake. It would also help if the league manager emails the league to explain the mistake. We’ve all done this.

Nando Di Fino (The Athletic, @nandodifino): I’d like to link to Ray’s link. If I can’t, I’ll say that I don’t see the side of the argument where a fantasy player shouldn’t get the dropped player back. This game was designed to be very personal — calling in and faxing moves to the commissioner, scoring by hand, etc. An inadvertent drop would never happen in its original iteration. But on a cell phone, with changing UI… I could see where an inadvertent finger move could lead to a drop instead of an IL move, or a wrong player being put into the drop box. So I’m for the return of the player. But you need a window. Four hours max.

Vlad Sedler (Fantasy Guru Elite, @rotogut): It should depend on the type of league. In friends and family league, it should be forgiven if the person clearly states it was done in error and he/she is not a repeat offender. In all other types, the rules of that league or site takes precedence.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Reading through the replies, I haven’t changed my mind, an inadvertent drop should be returned, however as someone who as been on the administrative side of as many league as just about anyone, it isn’t cut and dried. I’ve always felt the same action should have the same repercussions, regardless of the outcome. I also want as many rules to be black and white as possible, especially in a league like Tout Wars where we are governing 81 teams in six different leagues with three different SWATs handling the work. The less subjectivity, the better. The obvious approach is to set a hard deadline for reporting a mistake. The problem is,my colleagues are all over the place in this regard, though it is league contextual. Having a deadline to report the error puts the onus on the person to check their work after it’s entered. This is perfect since ultimately, especially in a league like Tout Wars, we all need to be responsible and accountable for our own teams. RARELY, there may be a move reports disingenuously. In the short window, news broke, affecting the decision. Or, the individual changed their mind from what they would have done. I’d like to think we don’t have any of this in Tout Wars. However, even if we did, the incredibly rare instance someone took advantage is significantly trumped by the occasional correcting of an accidental drop.

Tout Daily Picks: Bauer Power

Tuesday is the first week of the second Tout Daily period. The slates are wiped clean. Here are some of the picks for the Touts on a rain-shortened schedule.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Sometimes it’s worth spending up to go with the best. Facing one of the weakest lineups, who strike out a lot, this is one of those times!

Hitter: Kris Davis – Not a lot of $ left having invested in pitching, this is a good spot for Davis to come back to life. Porcello has been giving up his share on long balls, I hope Davis gets his long ball swing swing back tonight!

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Pitcher: Zach Grienke – Glenn Colton will hemmorage as I take the pitcher versus his beloved Yankees. In tournaments, you have to be contrarian sometimes and I look for players that have consistency. On the pitching side, Zach Grienke is one of the better players there. He has gotten a little sharper in each of the last three outings and his command has been right there being able to pinpoint location plus changes speeds. He won’t blow away any of these Yankee hitters, but he should put up 15-20 points. If it is any consolation, my other pitcher is Luis Castillo versus my favorite team, the Mets.

Hitter: Rowdy Tellez – Although it was three years ago when I saw him in person hit a 450 homer in the Arizona Fall League, I have been following him since. Glad to see Morales moved to open up a spot for him and see him start to shine hitting .305 with 5 HRs. Tonight, he faces 22 year-old sensation who has been dominating AAA. The lefty Tellez is priced right for him to hit a mistake pitch from the young gun and take it out of the yard. Looking for 2 for 5 with a bomb and a Rowdy night!

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Sure he’s expensive, but he seems the closest to a sure thing. Didn’t I say that about deGrom three weeks ago.

Hitter: Juan Soto –

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Vince Velasquez – Along with the Trevor Bauer versus Miami matchup, Vince Velasquez versus Detroit for $8700. Detroit averages less than 4 runs per game and Velasquez has 14 Ks in his last 10.2 IP with only 2 runs allowed

Hitter: Joey Votto – Tough not to stack the Reds versus Jason Vargas and his 7.20 ERA. Joey Votto has a hit on 4 straight games and I’m not afraid of this lefty vs lefty matchup.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Pricing has been tight this season, tough to afford two aces but after a rough first Period, going back to what’s worked for me – stud pitching and piecemeal bats.

Hitter: Curt Casali – Batting 5th against Vargas, not a bad salary-saver, a cheap part of a Reds stack, good part of the order with the platoon edge on a lesser hurler.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – I’m on the Bauer train as well. Matchup/quality of starter/strikeout rates too god to resist.

Hitter: Jose Ramirez – Doubling up on Cleveland players – starting to show signs of life. Good matchup against Alcantara dn not likely to get a player of his talents at $4,300 for much longer.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Against Miami? Make him fit!

Hitter: Yasiel Puig – If you’re using Bauer, you need to find some salary relief. Might as well give this bat-licking, bat-flipping idiot a shot against Jason Vargas, one of the absolute worst southpaws in the game right now. I might even think about a Reds stack with him, Suarez and Casali tonight!

Tout Table: What to Expect from Vlad Jr.

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This week’s question is straightforward:

Vlad Guerrero Jr.: Over/under .300? Over/under 20 HR?

Here are the responses:

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I assume the prompt is setting an over/under on the number of home runs Guerrero hits off the Athletics in his first major league series. I’m usually the neighborhood naysayer when it comes to prospect hype, but I have to imagine 19 or fewer home runs is something like a 20th percentile outcome (basically all major injury scenarios). As for the batting average, sure, it’s reasonable to doubt an unestablished player’s ability to hit .300 – especially in this day and age of supercharged relievers. Still, I’ll happily bet the over. Projection systems estimate around a .307 average. I’ll call out a .315. A better question: Vladito OPS o/u 1.000?

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): He’ll hit well over .400 and hit at least 74 home runs while finding a cure for cancer, fixing the US immigration system, and bringing peace to the Middle East between innings. We are not worthy to set eyes on him.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): I’m placing Vlad at .290 as .300 for a rookie will be tough as pitchers adjust. 20 plus HRs should be easy. I’ll predict 27

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): Over and over. It is easy for a prospect guy to get geeked up for an MLB intruduction, but the consistency Vlad Jr. has demonstrated suggests to me it can and will continue in the majors.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): I will take the over on Vladito’s batting average – that is his best tool. But for the first year, I will take the under on 20 home runs. He is more of a line drive hitter and will have some adjustments to make against major league pitchers.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1): Here it comes. Everyone saying that Vlad is the second coming. He is talent-wise, but players who get hurt tend to get hurt again. No one roots for injury. Just saying that someone who gains weight even as muscle and then pulls one of those muscles, will tend to get hurt again. That said, if healthy, he will eclipse 20 home runs easily. A .300 batting average will be difficult as the video, scouting and guile of major league pitchers could make it tough over a whole season. I don’t own him on any teams as the starting price was too high for someone who got hurt and has not played in the majors.

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): Though I’m convinced that long-term Vlad’s hit + power output is what is going to eventually catapult him into the Top-player-in-the-game conversation, I’d still take the Under on a .300 BA in his rookie year. I’d still consider him a BA asset in 2019 — he’s just hits the ball so hard — but feel that .280-.290 will be where he ends up 2019. Home runs, though? He should easily eclipse 20 over the next five months.

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath): I will take the over on both. I’m willing to bet on the skills he has displayed in the minors.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): Expecting a rookie, no matter how immensely talented, to go .300/20 is asking an awful lot. I guess I’ll be Debbie Downer, but this game is filled with players who struggled at the start of their careers – even the great Mike Trout had a .672 OPS his first season – so there is no guarantee anyone will star in their first season, even if they become a tremendous hitter in the long run. I’ll take the under on the average and the over on the homers.

Doug Anderson (Fantrax, @rotodaddy): I’ll go over on both. Have you looked at pitching this year? In the American League? I’ll bet the over on Vlad Sr. and Vlad Jr. Jr. as well.

Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): I go over on HR – Under on AVG My Projections for 2019 = 27 HR with .277 AVG

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’m more confident with over on average, and that’s without the ” he could get hurt and be over” angle. My numbers say 22 HR, so I guess I’ll take the over, but not warm and fuzzy about it.

Scott Engel (Rotoballer, @scotteTheKing): I am going with the under on both. Baseball is a constant game of adjustments, and a tougher one for rookies. I say he hits .275 with 25 homera

Jon Hegglund (Baseball Prospectus, @JonHegglund): I’ll be boring and say over on both. I think Vlad can choose his own adventure and hit .320 with 20ish homers or sell out a bit and hit .290 with 30ish homers. Have you all seen what the ball is doing this year?

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Over .300, but under 20 homers. He’s been a consistent way over .300 hitter in the minors, but power wasn’t impressive and he’s already missed 15% 0f the season.

Glenn COlton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): under and under. Love the talent BUT injury risk is real. If he is hurting at all, they are going to be SUPER careful. Could easily see him getting only 300-350 PA. Overvalued in re-draft leagues

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): over on the home runs, thanks to the rabbit ball they’re using again this year. under on the batting average, just because it’s difficult for almost anyone to hit .300 in today’s game.

Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): Under on the average – I think somewhere between .280 and .290. Over on the homers with 25 sounding about right.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): .295 20 HR’s exactly.

AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): Crunch all the numbers you want, I’m going to go over on both. He already looks more comfortable at the plate than some multi-year veterans. The stats will come.

Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): I will go over on the average and under on the 20 homers. I anticipate that he will struggle with an injury. .311 Average and 16 Home Runs. Every at bat will be exciting, just limited I’m afraid by injury.

Scott Wilderman (OnRoto, @): lowered his K-rate at each level — hard to see him not pushing .300. More extra base hits at higher levels at age 19 than at age 18 — should be plenty of power at age 20. Clay Davenport practically invented translating minor league stats to their equivalent MLB level, and he’s got V Jr at .298 and 25. The power I think on the upper end, but the average on the lower end of his range.

D.J. Short (Rotoworld, @djshort): I’ll go under on the batting average, though he’s still be plenty useful in the category. It’s just a lot to ask, even with his ridiculous numbers and polished approach. This might be the last time for a while I’ll take the under there. With the way the ball is flying out of the park this year, over on 20 homers feels like a fair expectation. Let’s go!

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): Common sense tells me to take the under on the .300 BA for a rookie, but I don’t really care. Vlad is different. Give me the over on both.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): C’mon, my pre-season projection was right at 20 homers, hitting .295! I’ll take the under, but just barely for both, simply because he’s only 20 years old, so that would be one heck of a performance in about 5/6ths of a season.

Alan Harrison (The Fantasy Fix, @TheFantasyFix): A healthy Vladito goes .305 with 22 moon shots.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I’m going over on both, and I feel strongly that if he falls short of either mark, he will do so just barely (assuming health). Guerrero Jr. has a lightening quick bat, and it’s controlled violence. Given what he did against Double-A pitching at 19 years old, I believe he will be able to make a pretty seamless transition to the majors and be one of the top 20 or so most productive hitters from here on. This is an incredibly rare talent.

Tout Daily Period 1 Wrap: Mega-Hertz

Baseball HQ’s Phil Hertz was electric in Tout Daily, waving to the rest of the field with great frequency. Hertz cycled his way to a first and two third place finishes in the first four weeks, capturing a Golden Ticket into the Tout Daily Championships. As the current overall points leader, Hertz leads the charge for the wild-card entry into the finals tournament.

Yahoo Fantasy’s Scott Pianowski and Scout Fantasy’s Adam Ronis earned the other two Golden Tickets for Period 1. As a great example of why consistency prevails in the DFS league format, Pianowski didn’t finish in the top-three in any week of Period 1 while Ronis finished second in Week 3.

The weekly winners in Period 1 were Hertz in Week 1, USA Today’s Steve Gardner in Week 2, Fantasy Football Empire’s Jeff Boggis in Week 3 and Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson in Week 4.

Here’s the Tout Daily Leaderboard

The slate is wiped clean with Period 2 beginning tonight. Be sure to check back later for the competitors pitching and hitting picks for the full Tuesday evening schedule.

Tout Daily: Wrapping up Period 1

Phil Hertz from Baseball HQ and Steve Gardner from USA Today have dominated the first three weeks and are in the driver’s seat for a ticket into the Tout Daily championship. The third seat is up for grabs with Adam Ronis currently holding down the third spot. Scott Pianowski, Justin Mason, Michael Beller and Anthony Aniano are all within striking distance. Click HERE for the leaderboard.

Here are this week’s Tout Daily picks. Please join us in a live chat as the leaders sweat the first allocation of Golden Tickets.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Domigo German – This slate is pretty trashy with regard to pitchers and their match-ups, so paying up for German seems like the safest way to go. He won’t light it up with strikeouts as the Angels aren’t a big whiffing team, but he should be able to limit the damage should the Halos start to hit him at all.

Hitter: Edwin Encarnacion – His numbers against left-handed pitching have been rock-solid, including a .585 wOBA against them this season. Petco shouldn’t scare people off as E5 can easily yank one down the line and put it over the fence.

Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – I agree with Howard, not a star-studded cast tonight. I’m going cheaper with Frankie Montas, who never seems to be as good as he looks. I bet Montas is super popular and that’s OK, I’ll just have to beat these bums somewhere else.

Hitter: Brandon Belt – Always a decent bet on the road against a righty, Belt frees up some cash for Coors.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)

Pitcher: Patrick Corbin – He’s the best pitcher on the slate. Coors Field will steer most people away from him, and that creates an opportunity to really separate myself with a strong performance (NOTE: this approach did not work a couple weeks ago with German Marquez, but I need to differentiate if I’m to take this first Golden Ticket).

Hitter: Jose Altuve – Perhaps no hitter benefits more from the juiced ball (in terms of HR) than Altuve, and he gets a guy in Michael Pineda who has allowed four homers in 18.2 innings and has always struggled to limit the long ball. The Crawford Boxes help Altuve’s cause.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – Montas in Spanish means “you ride” and I am riding with Montas tonight. You have to love his early season stats with 3 wins, 20/6 K/BB ratio, 2.70 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. I’ll take his $7,600 salary on DraftKings tonight in quest of a 1st period “Boleto Dorado” (Golden Ticket).

Hitter: Alex Bregman – Over the last 7 games Alex Bregman has hit a home run every other game. He did not hit a home run in his last game, so he’s money for a home run tonight.

Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford)

Pitcher: Pitcher Name –

Hitter: Bryce Harper – His price point is just too low to ignore against a somewhat volatile RHP. Zack Wheeler has definite upside on this slate, projecting to be one of the higher strike out starters. While I do think Wheeler is fine, I’m looking to go with a mini-stack of JT Realmuto and a cheap enough Bryce Harper.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – On a crap pitching slate, I’m buying the recent Weaver gains in a very favorable matchup… good park, bad (and depleted) PIT offense.

Hitter: Juan Soto – Pick a WAS OF, I might well end up having all three of ’em.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – I usually don’t mess with the Texas offense, but if I’m going to do it, it’s when they end up on the road in a cooler, more pitcher-friendly environment. Montas is priced at a level that will likely boost up his ownership on a slate like this, but I’m trying to avoid disasters on the mound with the limited options at the top end of the pool.

Hitter: Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo at $4K flat against a righty who can be leaky with the long ball is exactly what I’m looking for. If you’re looking to get some exposure to the Coors bats, you’ll need to save a little with secondary pieces, and Nimmo is one of my preferred building blocks tonight.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Erik Swanson – Need some lightning in a bottle as I’m way behind in the period and overall. The Padres fan a ton versus RHP. My other pitcher (his name rhymes with Shmardizija) faces another high-K offense.

Hitter: Mitch Garver – Going with a Twins mini-stack against Wade Miley in Houston with Garver leading off. The rest of the bats are all sluggers capable of going yard.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – He’s been pitching well. Favorable ballpark. It’s not like there’s a slam dunk option like deGrom was two weeks ago.??

Hitter: Victor Robles – Coors! What more do I need to say.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – I like his recent form and his price. I’m going to pair him with Domingo German to form the Chalk Brothers duo.

Hitter: Alex Bregman – For Larry. I think that the Astros will hit Piñeda like a piñata.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – Weaver represents a great way to save money tonight and had 9 strikeouts in his last outing. Sometimes it is as simple as that.

Hitter: Victor Robles – The Rockies had a difficult time picking out a starting pitcher and Coors plays tonight. I employed a game stack and filled in with best value catcher plus two White Sox as they have a tasty match up. Let’s go!

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – He has 17Ks in his last 11.1 IP with only 2 earned runs and faces a Pirates team that averages 3.6 runs per game and 3 per game over their last 3.

Hitter: Jose Abreu – He is 6 for his last 15 with 1 HR and 7 RBIs while only striking out twice. He faces Andrew Cashner and his 4.97 ERA and his 7 HRs allowed over 25.1 inning pitched

Tout Table: How to approach the potential of a juiced ball

There’s scientific and empirical evidence the baseball is juiced. This week’s question posed:

With mounting evidence the ball is juiced (lower drag and huge spike in Triple-A runs using MLB balls this season), what measures should be taken by fantasy managers to best take advantage?

Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty): Obviously, a juiced ball means more runs — which is good for hitters and bad for pitchers in an absolute sense. Many fantasy players will just take a stab in the dark at mentally adjusting player values, I’m sure, or run around like Chicken Little and push all their chips onto the hitting side. There are ways to quantify this change, though, so it doesn’t have to be an imprecise exercise. Ideally, this is something that gets accounted for in the projections you’re using to assess player value. When I realized this was happening a week or so ago, I began upgrading THE BAT to be able to detect changes in the league run environment and — more importantly — to decipher at what point this type of thing “stabilizes” the same way we can decipher when individual player stats stabilize. This way, we’re aren’t over (or under)-reacting to a sample size of just two or three weeks. We’ve definitely hit a point where this looks very largely real, if the physics studies we’ve seen about drag coefficients and whatnot hadn’t already told us that. Once you have players projected within this new context, it should be fairly easy to re-calculate values and make moves accordingly. The biggest question is whether players will be impacted equally. Certain things are obvious; flyball pitchers will be hurt more than groundball pitchers. But will big raw power hitters be impacted less than moderate power hitters? Since all hitters will projected higher and all pitchers lower, does that actually mean hitting is worth more if the intra-position values are all still relative? These are the more interesting questions at this point, IMO.

AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): Assuming that this is indeed a trend and not just statistical noise, the fact that there are more home runs in the baseball universe means that each individual home run is slightly less valuable. Trading away someone like Jay Bruce-type whose early-season HR production has surprised for a Tommy Pham-type who will get you a few blasts along with a rarer stat (steals) is the way to go before the market self-corrects.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1): Actually, it is what you shouldn’t do anymore that is the outcome of this. Don’t pay top dollar for home run production as it will be easier to get across the board and lesser hitters will find more balls going over the fence. Invest in starting pitchers who go deep into games to maximize your strikeouts and players who run. As of today, there have been 540 games played with 700 home runs already hit. At that rate, there will be 6,300+ home runs hit which would eclipse the 6,015 hit in 2017 by almost 5% and crush last season’s 5,585 by 13%.

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): Hitter value is skewed even more toward the stolen base and batting average (we talk a lot about the former and way too little about the latter). For pitchers, middle relievers are even more vital than ever to protect your ratios. In deep leagues, use MRs over SPs when you can. In shallower formats, work the wire on starters and don’t be loyal to any but the top 15-20 overall.

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath): I agree with Gianella on the SB/BA front and MRPs becoming more valuable. James is also on point with targeting the weak offenses for pitching. I look at the lefty/righty team splits and who has the lowest ISOs to stream against.

James Anderson (Rotowire, @RealJRAnderson): We have to be more careful than ever before when it comes to sitting decent pitchers (Steven Matz types) against the top offenses, and we have to be more aggressive than ever when it comes to streaming pitchers against the worst offenses. I’ll start almost anyone against the Orioles, Marlins, Tigers, Indians, Giants, Royals and Pirates. I’ll also start almost any righty against the Blue Jays, and going after the Rockies and Reds on the road seems like a valid strategy at the moment. In order to avoid blow-up outings, it’s critical to roster at least one quality reliever who won’t get many saves but can be counted on for great ratios. Ryan Pressly and Adam Ottavino are long gone, but guys like Nick Anderson, Nick Burdi and Robert Stephenson are still out there in a lot of leagues. I think it’s too late to do much adjusting on the hitting side — it will require a ton of HR, RBI and R to be competitive in those categories, but it’s not like there are a bunch of sluggers sitting out on waivers that will help make up ground.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): If the ball is juiced and players are hitting more homeruns … Let’s think about what effect that has on the hitters and pitchers. All offense would be up, but I would think that hitters who hit more fly-balls would benefit more – a couple of more balls hit in the air will fly out of the yard. Players who hit more groundballs, although a few more may go for hits, won’t see as large an impact from a flyout turning into a homerun. Projections who break down power into FB & HR/FB components may adjust FB hitters projections more favorably – and assign a larger value to them. Give a bump to FB hitters such as Hoskins, Gallo, K Davis, Carpenter, Kepler, etc. The opposite goes for the pitchers … the fly-ball pitchers would be affected more, so the groundball and strikeout pitchers (low FB rates) would now be worth more. Pitchers like Corbin, Godley, Arrieta, Marquez, Marco Gonzales with low FB rates should benefit. FB pitchers like Verlander, Scherzer, R Lopez, Cole, etc. should get dinged, and may see a higher ERA than projected. In terms of lineup construct, some low FB relief pitchers may now be worth starting as well.

Alex Chamberlain (Rotofraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): Prior research (mine, others) suggests the players who benefit most from the juiced ball are the fringy ones. Home run distance is generally normally distributed, but with the juiced ball it skews ever-so-slightly toward shorter home runs, and the players with middling/league-average home run outputs, as a group, see the biggest gain. Don’t overpay via trade for premium power bats who, in a sense, are marginally less valuable with league-wide power on the rise. From a pitcher standpoint, home run rates are up for all pitch types, but it’s fastballs that have borne the greatest burden: home runs as a ratio of outfield fly balls have increased from 19.0% to 23.8% in the early goings. Again, all pitch types have been more vulnerable, but fastballs, disproportionately so. Make of that what you will (it’s fair to argue these league-wide pitch-type numbers are still too noisy to be worthwhile.)

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): Until I see data that indicates the increased home run rate is inconsistent at a statistically significant level across different classes of hitters, I see no way to act on the offensive side. However, if data shows an increase among top hitters is greater than for lesser hitters, for example, then one can react accordingly. On the pitching side, it would seem to add value to sinkerball pitchers and decrease those who have fly ball tendencies. Now that I think about it, the same could apply to fly ball vs. ground ball hitters. Again, there should start to be enough data available to test this rather than speculate.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): Alex took most of my reply. The last time we had a juice ball effect, it was the Justin Smoaks who benefitted, not the Giancarlo Stantons. With Smoak, his wall-scrapers and warning-track outs nipped the extra 10 feet to sneak over the fence; with Stanton, the 430-foot blast became a 450-foot blast, but no extra points for added distance! If we had known this ahead of the season, obviously we all could have made adjustments to projected HR and the value of HR, so a few bucks would have moved from the Giancarlos to the Smoaks. In-season, I guess if there are owners in your league who aren’t aware of the situation, trade your Stanton for a pack of Smoaks (hee hee) that includes any kind of useful throw-in. The juice ball benefit will close the gap between Smoak and Stanton, so the throw-in gets a little extra added value.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Is there any evidence that Tim Anderson’s legs are juiced? He’s on pace for 63 SB.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): I might try to move a homer guy for a base stealer, but at this point of the season in deep leagues, in which I mainly play, there’s not an imperative to do much adjusting .

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): To Anthony’s point, there was a study published on Baseball Prospectus showing less drag on the balls for the week tested, which would feed into the conditions. The piece warns it was one week’s worth of baseballs and there’s variance from week to week, but the drag levels were lower than anything measured last season and were in fact reminiscent of 2017. Chances are the reduced drag is working in concert with the early winds to boost homers. Gratuitous plug alert: I recently wrote a piece for ESPN determining the sweet spot where added fly ball distance should manifest in the most added homers. My filters were batters with a high fly ball rate, good contact and 2018 average fly ball distance within the optimal range. I tagged 16 batters and some honorable mentions. I’m working on a companion pitcher piece for next week.

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): We always want pitchers who miss bats, but I consider K/9 even more critical now. Contact is too risky. I had a soft spot for the Mikolas, Hendricks, Porcello types in draft season; not as horses, but as playable worker bees. I’m certainly concerned now (it’s adorable that all three guys had their best turn of the year this weekend, post-write, but I stand behind the point). At least there are relievers who breathe fire and can smooth ratios, but it’s no country for pitch-to-contact SPs. If I owned a Madison Bumgarner type, I’d be coyly trying to trade him, if possible. (I missed last week’s table, but I see nothing wrong with considering trades in April. You should always be looking for natural fits.)

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): The obvious answer is to start dealing off your HR-only guys for more well-balanced players and grab extra speed while you can. If I think a guy who is normally a 15-15 player can pop me 20-plus with a juiced ball, then the sliding scale should be attached to everyone. Maybe Jay Bruce pops 35 again, but is he more valuable than a Tommy Pham or Michael Brantley? I’d even go so far ….sorry Lawr, but you know I love you…as to trade a Khris Davis for a guy with much less power on paper and a strong starting pitcher who doesn’t pitch to a world of contact.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): I agree with Pianow, the pitchers who simply do not miss bats at a high rate but make value with their ability to log a lot of innings take a hit because significantly worse things are going to happen to them with the juiced ball. There are some streaming implications here as well, and if starting pitchers are getting hit harder, their innings will likely come down. With that, we might be wise to push strikeout-heavy, non-closer relievers even harder to pad ratios, as their collective impact might actually increase in 2019 as a byproduct of the more difficult environment as a whole.

Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): I may be in the minority here but I would not change anything. I plan to stick to my knitting, follow the SMART system and Rules of Engagement, look for good matchups, undervalued players and to rid my teams of players unlikely to turn it around.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): I am relying more on more advanced sabermetrics and using this to my advantage in player acquisition through free agency and trades. For pitching metrics, strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) and home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) provide me a way to see which pitchers are making hitters miss the ball, but also what happens when a hitter does make contact. For example, Jacob deGrom (14.9) and Matthew Boyd (13.3) currently lead the majors in k/9, but deGrom has a higher HR/FB rate at .417 versus Boyd at .125, so I prefer Boyd to deGrom. I also like to view and increase in HR/FB rate for hitters and try to spot trends from last year to this year. I’m looking for hitters with a home run to fly ball ratio of 15% or higher.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): I’m just going to pretend it’s 2017 (my memory is at least that good) and be careful with each matchup. The biggest change I need to incorporate is that the Triple-A teams are using this same high-flying ball. I used to bake in a little power boost when a player gets to the majors. Not, so much now.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): I’m not buying it! Younger, stronger, better in shape players are hitting the ball farther. It will take more homers than yet year to compete in the category, but more players are hitting them. Maybe this will stop the nonsense of moving the mound back!

Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): I think this should change your strategy using your pitchers more than using your hitters. Chances are if this continues you will get more value out of your hitters than maybe you anticipated. However, now when thinking about using a two-start pitcher or perhaps a streaming option, the opportunity for it to really blow up your ratios (or grant you negative points in point based leagues) seems to have increased. Even guys like Steven Matz that are definitely rosterable couldn’t even record an out against Philly the other night. Perhaps your hitters that are off to good starts will stay performing well, but be more cautious of those pitching streaming options and really hold out for guys who are going against one of the more anemic offenses.

D.J. Short (Rotoworld, @djshort): These are all excellent thoughts. Nothing novel here, but with each home run, your surprising power hitter is less valuable. Knowing that it’s easier to compete in that area in this current environment, it makes plenty of sense to consider cashing in on the headlines of that early production in order to upgrade in other areas outside of power. This could be stolen bases, as some of you suggest, or a hitter with an excellent approach who has been unlucky or underperformed so far. Pitching feels particularly vulnerable right now, but I’d probably look at things like swinging strike percentage and soft-contact rate as my guide as far as a trade acquisition.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): I’m not sure how you’d take advantage of it, unless you have the proverbial crystal ball to be able to tell which waiver wire options at this point are going to transform into the 2019 version of Max Muncy. However, I would try to combat this trend by using as many of my reserve spots as possible on starting pitchers (which has the added benefit of cushioning the blow of the inevitable injuries), then playing matchups to as great an extent as possible to avoid obviously unfavorable matchups.