Welcome to Week 3, the third week of Period 1. The common theme is choosing a lesser priced SP2 to afford an SP1. Here’s where the Touts landed.
Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty)
Pitcher: Pablo Lopez – Of the sub-7k pitchers, Pablo is the most talented and is pitching in the best park. He’s facing a solid offense in the Cubs, but it’s also an overrated offense with plenty of holes. He’s a little more expensive than Kyle Gibson and Reynaldo Lopez (both also solid options tonight), but at what may be the lowest ownership of the trio, he holds strong appeal.
Hitter: Mike Trout – Much will be made of Christian Yelich after his hot start to the year and 3-HR night last night, but don’t let recency bias cloud your judgement. Trout is the FAR superior hitter. He’s in the better park tonight. He has the better weather. He’s facing the weaker pitcher. He has the more important RvL platoon advantage. And he’s only $300 more. It’s not a close decision. Trout is a must.
Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)
Pitcher: Max Fried – Very impressive so far, against tough hitting teams, nice $8k price in a pretty lousy field.
Hitter: Robinson Cano – Not much to show for it but he’s swinging the bat well, in a favorable Philly park against a struggling Nick Pivetta
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)
Pitcher: Shane Bieber – Like Gene, I like Fried, but tonight I’m a Bieber believer. He’s not a lot more expensive than Fried and has a longer track record.
Hitter: Michael Conforto – Michael Conforto has been doing well over his last 10 games and faces a struggling Nick Pivetta.
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)
Pitcher: Collin McHugh – Collin McHugh’s ability to accumulate Ks and keep a low ERA has him as a relatively low cost SP1 for tonight to pair with Fried
Hitter: Bryce Harper – Bryce Harper versus Matz. As well as Matz has pitched this season he is prone to the HR and Harper is in a great spot to go deep.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)
Pitcher: Shane Bieber – Tonight, I have Bieber fever, especially at a DraftKings price of only $8,600. Shane Bieber is averaging almost 20 fantasy points per game, but this number is deceiving. In his first outing, he had only 4.9 fantasy points. In his last two outings, he had 25.1 and 29.4 fantasy points per game. He’s trending in the right direction. On the season, Beiber is 1-0 with 17 strikeouts, an ERA of 1.80, and a WHIP of 0.67.
Hitter: Javier Baez – It’s always nice to be occasionally start a member of the Chicago Cubs since they play a lot of their home games during the day. Baez faces Miami starting pitcher, Pablo Lopez. Lopez owns a 6.60 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 1-2 record through his first 3 starts. I like Baez at a reasonable price of $4,800 on DraftKings.
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper)
Pitcher: Pablo Lopez – At home for $6,900, Lopez is a nice value against the Cubs. I’m treating this entry as a GPP lineup, and with a very limited supply of viable home starters higher up the price list, I want to take the chance on a young pitcher on the rise in a matchup that night scare enough people away to keep his ownership reasonably light.
Hitter: Ji-Man Choi – If I were at Costco, I’d pay a six-pack of Choi at this price tonight. Dylan Bundy turns left-handed hitters into superstars, and Choi is another one of the hard-hit/barrel-rate darlings in Tampa Bay capable of turning an increased role into meaningful production. Stacking against Bundy will likely be popular, so I’ll probably limit my exposure to the matchup to Choi at this price, even if he’s relatively popular with the low price.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)
Pitcher: Tyler Glasnow – Spending up for top pitcher going against lowly Baltimore
Hitter: Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg surface numbers haven’t been great, but he’s faced the Mets twice and Phillies. The Giants are a weak offense with the second worst wOBA against RHP.
Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis)
Pitcher: Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg surface numbers haven’t been great, but he’s faced the Mets twice and Phillies. The Giants are a weak offense with the second worst wOBA against RHP.
Hitter: Nolan Arenado – Arenado is heating up with homers in consecutive games and faces a LHP tonight.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Pitcher: Nick Margevicius – One of the best bets in recent seasons is a southpaw opposing the Rockies in their home park. It’s even better when the park rhymes with SHMETCO.
Hitter: Jorge Alfaro – Alfaro is hitting clean-up, with the platoon edge on the struggling Jose Quintana. I’ll take the savings and pair Margevicius with a stud.
Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)
Pitcher: Nick Margevicius – He’ll be super-chalky tonight given his price-tag, but how do you not love this guy facing a Rockies team that can’t seem to consistently hit its way out of a paper bag and is striking out nearly 30% of the time over the last week?
Hitter: Brandon Lowe – He’s hit safely in nine-straight games (three multi-hit games in his last five) with three homers, eight RBI and a stolen base in that span. Oh yeah…and he’s facing Dylan Bundy! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)
Pitcher: Colin McHugh – In a league like this where there are so many great baseball minds, I try not to get fancy with the pitchers. McHugh has a good price tonight plus has struck out 22 players in 17 innings. When he faced Oakland on the 5th of April, he only struck out four, but he is safe to get 20 points and sometimes it is best to bank the 20 at a good price.
Hitter: Trevor Story – Like all the RHHs in the Colorado lineup which will have the obvious Nolan Arenado in them too. Story is slightly less obvious but both hitters mash LHP. In 2018, he hit .326 with a home run every 14 at bats. The counting numbers were good too. He started 2019, with a strong .348 in just 23 at bats. Tonight both he and Arenado go yard. It’s on!
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)
Pitcher: Max Fried – Young lefty hasn’t given up a run yet this season. Doubt he extends that streak, but a solid effort vs. Arizona is certainly doable. Hitter: Josh Donaldson –
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)
Pitcher: Pablo Lopez – I couldn’t really find a way to fit Glasnow AND Bieber in along with quality bats, and Joe Musgrove is not a part of this slate due to an early start, so I’m dipping down and taking a chance on Lopez. The results haven’t been good, but Lopez has a stellar 17:2 K:BB and 3.21 FIP.
Hitter: Austin Meadows – Dylan Bundy has been more homer-prone against same-handed hitters in recent years, but lefties are still getting to him for close to two per nine since the start of 2018. I’m buying into Meadows’ breakout and will happily get back aboard this train in DFS even at a lofty $5,000 price tag.
Tim Heaney (Rotowire, ESPN, @Tim_Heaney)
Pitcher: Stephen Strasburg – Flipping a coin between Strasburg and Tyler Glasnow…. nah, it’s a bit more than that: Strasburg is $3K cheaper and, despite Glasnow’s tilt with the Orioles, Strasburgh’s matchup is just as tantalizing. He’ll mow down the Giants.
Hitter: Robinson Cano – Nick Pivetta allowed 1.52 HR/9 to LHB last season, and his poor early returns show he’s feeding that beast again. Cano ($3,700, hitting third) is mildly priced for such a promising situation at a hitter-leaning park.
Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)
Pitcher: Jon Gray – I’ve also got Shane Bieber going, but I figured that is actually pretty common. Gray has had two good road starts this year and Petco is a nice venue to continue that run.
Hitter: Austin Meadows – I think a lot of us are going to have Rays Fever and I see that Clay also has Meadows as his highlighted hitter. The logic here is pretty simple – Meadows is on fire against a pitcher in Dylan Bundy that is tater-rific.
Welcome to this week’s Tout Wars Roundtable. The questions posed to the Touts is
Please finish this sentence: When it comes to early-season trading…
Here are the replies. Feel free to chime in with your take in the comments.
Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I’m looking to acquire or trade away changes in talent before they become statistically obvious. I’m also looking to nab slow-start veterans, i.e. Carpenter and Goldy last season. This year, Josh Donaldson and Jose Ramirez top the list.
AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): I tend to preach patience. I drafted players (bought them via auction) for a reason, and I’m not typically going to change my outlook on these guys after a few cold weeks — both in terms of stats and the outdoor temperature, which often is a reason for slow starts. Now, when I lose Trea Turner to a lengthy injury, I might be more inclined to listen to offers, but since any deal I might make reacting to such a need is going to be from a position of weakness, I’m going to have to make sure I’m not getting fleeced.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): I’m active, but the problem is that I can’t seem to find a trading partner that won’t try to take advantage of the trade deal. Take for example Chris Sale. I tried to trade for him, but the owner still values him as a 2nd round pick. I’m willing to give him 75% on the dollar, but he wants 99%. Not going to happen since I am the one taking on the additional risk. My advice in any trade negotiation is to first get on the phone and call, email, or text various trading partners to see if they have any interest in a trade. It will save you and other league managers a ton of wasted trade offers.
Andrea Lamont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): I try to be the guy buying low, not the guy selling low. Yesterday I was offered Chris Sale for Zack Greinke, and that made me pretty excited. Don’t ever trade a player away at his lowest value. Especially ones you drafted in the first round or paid a bunch for. They get a little more time to get it together than cheaper players. I am happy to trade a player away if I think he is playing above his skill level, like Pete Alonso, who is striking out 31% of the time and has a BABIP of .478 – SELL
Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): I hang back and chill. Presumably, you drafted your team after months of offseason research; don’t toss that away after 2-3 weeks. Two exceptions: injuries and falling *way* behind in a certain category. If there’s an obvious hole in your squad (i.e. you drafted Mike Clevinger as your ace, you lost a closer or two), then it makes sense to be aggressive and patch those gaps before you fall too far behind. But if you’re mostly in the pack, relax and let things play out. A weakness can turn into a strength (or vice-versa) at a moment’s notice this early in the year.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I am always happy to try to upgrade. I don’t think there is every a “wrong” time to try to make a trade, and earlier trades have more impact. But having said that, it is very hard to find someone panicking in the leagues I am in and no one is buying the crazy first two weeks of some player or selling their best player who had a bad start. Owners out looking to rip me off–forget it. I admit that I have not made any offers (yet). I have Vogelbach in Tout AL, if someone wants to make an offer! I need SBs and SPs.
Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): I tend to look right after my draft to see if I have any positional or statistical imbalances, and attempt to make a low-end trade. A low end SS for a low end 3B, or a low end steals guy for low end power, etc. But if everyone drafted to their views, it will be tough to make major trades early on – as people are high on their own picks. If I am approached by another team, I will certainly entertain offers if I think that I can profit, but I won’t attempt anything major myself. The exception to that is an impact injury, if the waiver wire isn’t helpful.
Chris Liss (Rotowire, @Chris_Liss): Make me an offer, I will certainly consider it. Just don’t assign me homework, e.g, “take a look at my roster.”
Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): There is a fine line between being patient with players off to a slow start and recognizing a deficiency that you might be able to fix better via trade than through free agents. The easiest and best trades to make early in the season are trading from a position/category of strength to correct a weakness with a team that has a clear match. Old school but I always prefer to have a conversation with teams in my league to see how they view their players/team and mine before presenting a trade offer – you will often get a better deal than the one you had in mind.
Michael Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): I am always looking to upgrade where I can and tend to target GMs with star players that are under-performing to see if I can buy low. I do not overreact positively or negatively to players’ performances over the first few weeks of the season, but I know other GMs do so I try and capitalize on that overreaction.
Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): I’m mostly against early season trades unless it’s obvious in your favor. My mom always said I’d make a great landscape architect with my hedges. Also, you can check out our Razzball’s Trade Analyzer to see when a trade is in your favor: https://razzball.com/trade_analyzer_mlb/
Seth Trachtman (Rotoworld, @sethroto): Buy low, sell high. Unless there’s something apparent in the small sample size of stats that says the player has legitimately gotten better or worse, I try not to take too much from a couple weeks of data, one way or the other.
Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): I’m usually pretty conservative throughout the month of April. I’ll fill holes on the waiver wire, but don’t often feel it necessary to blow up the first 6-to-8 rounds of my draft this early. Once the calendar flips to May and I have a better read on my team and its needs, everyone is fair game. There is no player who is untradeable, though, obviously, prices vary. Also, instead of making my own moves, I often enjoy spending April talking fantasy newbies out of making bonehead deals.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Everything is fair game. Just don’t try to buy low with me. If you’ve come out of the draft with an obvious gap; for example, steals. Why wait to fix it.
Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): I will listen to offers and leap if the price is right but I’m much more inclined to initiate and/or actually make a trade once April is over and I have a better idea of what my team needs most.
Dr. Roto (Scout Fantasy, @DrRoto): I like to be patient for the first month or so of the season to see how the categories shake out so I can target my needs better.
Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): Early season I don’t usually go out seeking trades unless I have an injury concern, but am not opposed to trading at any time.. The best trades are typically the ones that come to you but hopefully also include an offer rather than something vague. Everyone wants to sell high/buy low but I rarely encounter those situations in actual practice. Most people stick to their guns early in the season at this level of play if they already have expectations regarding a player since they drafted or purchased them in the first place.
Michael Florio (NFL Network, @MichaelFFlorio): I am looking to buy a player who has made a change before it really gets notice. For instance, Zach Eflin is throwing a cutter (according to some sites) and it has become his best swing and miss pitch. I have shot multiple offers for him already. Additionally, I look to jump on panicking owners. I loved Zack Wheeler coming into the season and he is still doing everything I loved. He still has his added velocity and throwing that new split finger, but because of one bad start where he had nothing, some may be panicking.
Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford): I generally despise trading at any point in a season. So many owners are so afraid of “losing” a trade that they become difficult to negotiate with and circular in offers. If I drafted a specific roster with intent of trading for a category later, I try to get ahead of the curve whenever possible.
Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ): I’m pretty hands-off, unless I’ve got an express need. In Tout Wars Mixed, for instance, I’ve got zero saves after 2 weeks. Safe to say I’m going shopping there soon. But I’m generally not aggressive about trying to buy or sell into hot/cold starts. Just not a predator by nature, I suppose.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): … I’m willing to listen, but I don’t expect much activity because most owners (including me) are usually waiting to see what they have as a team, what they have in the categories, and what they have from individual players. It’s hard to know those things with only a few weeks of games. That’s partly just common sense and partly a kind of ownership bias, but either way, it mitigates against early-season trading. When I played keepers, it was different, because dumping got going earlier and earlier to the point where trades were being made in April, but that’s only because the trades are not meant to be current-value-for-current value, so owners can are addressing two different sets of needs.
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): I’m willing to listen to offers and try to take advantage of an impatient owner who’s too eager to sell low. If an owner is willing to move on after 50 poor at bats or 3 poor starts i’ll happily take them for the next 500 at bats or 27 starts.
Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated, @MBeller): …be realistic. Far fewer people are prone to panic than popular lore would suggest. Everyone answering this question plays in industry leagues, but we all play in home leagues, too. I’m betting that you aren’t seeing too many Jose Ramirez or Chris Sale trades in those leagues just yet. Worry less about what the other person may be willing to give up, and more about the holes on your roster that may already be developing. If you’re trying to make a discount trade for someone you liked back in draft season, consider guys who were mid- or late-round targets. For sake of example, some players who fit that mold for me include Franmil Reyes, Robinson Cano and Ross Stripling.gh
Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): ….I’m typically patient and using the waiver wire to upgrade the bottom of my roster and filling in for injured players. I will always listen to offers but it is hard trading early when managers still like most of their players for the same reasons they drafted them.
Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): … I rarely do it unless if I know that I have a categorical weakness heading out the draft or if an early season injury cause me to have an unexpected weakness.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): . . . I generally pass. Unless injuries have left me with a glaring weakness that I can’t even begin to fill from the waiver wire AND I match up well with a potential trading partner who needs something I feel I can spare, I’ll stick to the waiver wire. One exception – if I see a league-mate with a player coming off the IL, I might offer them some FAAB for a player I like that they look likely to cut.
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): I don’t really participate much, though to be fair, I don’t think most folks in these industry leagues do. We all believe in “our players,” so we’re not likely to be selling them on the low, causing the dampeners to be put on a lot of potential early season moves.
Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): I listen and respond to every offer – same as later in the season. Even if the deal doesn’t make sense, keeping the lines open for the next proposal could pay off. Rarely does an early deal interest me, but there is no reason to limit one’s opportunity and risk being labeled as a disinterested trader and someone to avoid. This season, I’ve already been approached in a dynasty league in which I am rebuilding. The price I requested in return is high, but if the other owner wants the deal, it will get done. If not, no problem.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): I’m only interested if it looks like I’m going to miss my projections and I’m going to be short in a category. I’m not usually brave enough to trade for the upside from a player off to a slow start, but those trades could help the most!
Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): I am very hesitant to make an early season trade unless I can trade for a guy I liked a lot in March who is off to a slow start. The risk of overreacting to meaningless April standings is too great.
Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis): In general, I tend to be patient. Every team is different, though, and there are times where it’s clear a trade needs to be done. With so many injuries already, it might make sense to make a trade before you fall behind by too much. There are times where you know coming out of a draft you’re deficient in a category and a quick trade can help.
Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): I like to be on the offensive. Trade guys off to a good start that maybe are overachieving. Try to get a better player that maybe didn’t hit the ground running. I don’t like to trade early if I’m struggling with guys I believe in. Early season trading is for taking advantage of hot starts, not for making up for slow ones.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): If you know that you have a need, and/or a surplus of something, don’t hesitate to trade. No reason to wait. And while it’s always nice to gain an edge, or buy low, sell high, a fair trade is fine.
D.J. Short (Rotoworld, @djshort): I keep an open mind. After a few weeks, you generally have a feel for your roster and how things might play out in certain categories. Grabbing someone off waivers is possible and maybe even season-altering, but you can’t count on that happening or finding a player who matches up with category need. So it’s always wise to look at your strengths and see if someone if willing to cash in on a surplus. The problem is that it’s just too early for many to do that. Otherwise, I’m not really overreacting to much of what I’m seeing in the early part of the season unless playing time/role or injuries have significantly changed things from my preseason valuation.
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): I keep a very close eye on injuries for other teams in order to find trade partners in need. Most likely, the roster I built on draft or auction day doesn’t have perfect balance, so an injury for someone else could open the door for a productive dialogue that allows us to make a deal to improve both teams, as a gaping hole on a roster might lead another owner to give up an excess of something else I might need.
Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): …if the early results match post-draft expectations, I’m willing to trade at any time. No one should set a date before which they aren’t willing to deal.
Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): Always willing to listen but rarely willing to pull the trigger. My one trade early on — moving Kolten Wong for Bryse Wilson before opening day. Smooth move, Ex-Lax
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I’m open to it and always willing to listen to offers on any player I own. I rarely seek out deals until at least a month into the season though, unless I’m in a league with a bunch of rookies who I think could fleece with some buy low offers.
Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): I’m really averse to making deals. I want to give myself a chance to better assess players’ values for this season. I’m definitely more open to dealing if I’m lucky enough to have a surplus to trade from.
Nando DiFino (The Athletic, @nandodifino): I’m all for it. Maybe a player I really like got swiped from me in the draft. Maybe a risk I took crashed and burned. Perhaps I just get restless. I think you can get better deals early on, too, because while owners have players they really may like, they also have a few they settled for, or grabbed late because they were bargains. For instance, I got Tim Beckham at the end of Tout because he was the best available player left. I think I had him pegged as UT or SW. If someone comes to me and needs a SS and wants to give me a Dylan Bundy upgrade… I’m all for it. Especially this early, when one player change can steer your team in a totally different direction.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’m receptive but not usually aggressive. Injuries may force the issue, but I generally prefer to let things play out. That said, I don’t play in many leagues where there are panicking competitors. If you do, there’s nothing wrong with looking to take advantage. If you don’t, someone else will.
Usually, there’s a degree of commonality with the Tout’s picks. Tonight, they’re all over the place. We’ll have a chat open at 7:00 PM ET for those wanting to hang out and talk some baseball.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Pitcher: Mike Minor – Want to use Jacob deGrom, so need to find a cheaper SP2. I don’t like Minor at home, but I’ll roll the dice in an NL park against a middling lineup
Hitter: Robinson Cano – Batting 3rd against Kyle Gibson at home? Yes, please!
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)
Pitcher: John Means – I need a low cost, high ceiling starting pitcher tonight as I am also going with Jacob DeGrom at $11,600. Means is playing for a spot in the Baltimore rotation and has pitched well this season. He’s thrown 5.2 inning with 9 strikeouts and 2 walks. He has a favorable matchup today at home against Oakland.
Hitter: Christian Yelich – It was a tough decision on starting either Yelich or Chris Davis tonight. (Who am I kidding?) I’m actually going to do a Milwaukee stack for the most part as they face Matt Harvey tonight. Yelich owns a .370 batting average all time versus Harvey.
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)
Pitcher: Jacob deGrom – The reigning NL Cy Young award winner hasn’t allowed a run in his first two starts and he’ll be pitching at home against the DH-less Twins. He’s the closest to a sure thing on the schedule, so I’ll find value elsewhere.
Hitter: Whit Merrifield – The guy has a 29-game hitting streak! Yeah, he isn’t going to threaten DiMaggio just yet but against lefty Marco Gonzales, I’ll take my chances.
Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford)
Pitcher: Derek Holand – While not someone who I’m overly comfortable with on regular basis, Holland presents the best park on the slate. San Francisco’s Oracle Park helps to mitigate the RHB of San Diego here.
Hitter: Nolan Arenado – While stacking Coors may be difficult if you’re looking to play one of the top end pitchers, it’s hard to imagine any hitter in a better “spot” than Nolan Arenado. Over his career agaisnt LHP at Coors Field, Arenado sports a .388 ISO. He’s going up agaisnt lefty Max Fried who, while talented, relies on a curveball as one of his out pitchers. Coors Field greatly diminishes the effectiveness of the curve.
Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)
Pitcher: John Means – Paired with deGrom for salary relief, has a chance to put up a good start but I’ll be happy with 15 points
Hitter: Robinson Cano – Not expensive but a good bet to hit a home run, and where there is one home run there can be two.
Michael Florio (NFL Network, @MichaelFFlorio)
Pitcher: Marco Gonzales – The Royals have a .260 wOBA against lefties this season, which is the fourth lowest in baseball. Also, the Mariners have been scoring a ton of runs, which greatly increases his chance at a win.
Hitter: Joc Pederson – I am a sucker for Joc. But he has been red hot, is hitting leadoff and facing Dakota Hudson who has already allowed 3 homers to left handed hitters. The fear is that he gets pinch hit for later in the game, but I trust him to get on base and potentially go deep tonight.
Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis)
Pitcher: Jacob deGrom – No need to get cute. He hasn’t allowed an earned run yet, the wind is blowing in on a cool night and Nelson Cruz isn’t in the lineup.
Hitter: German Marquez – This is a sucker pick…I’m a sucker for Marquez. I don’t imagine he’ll be owned by more than one or two other people, so if he hits, it should separate me from the pack.
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)
Pitcher: German Marquez – This is a sucker pick…I’m a sucker for Marquez. I don’t imagine he’ll be owned by more than one or two other people, so if he hits, it should separate me from the pack.
Hitter: Jorge Soler – Just 3-for-his-last-28, but SEA/KC has the third-highest over/under tonight and Soler is a career .254/.346/.460 hitter (115 wRC+) against left-handed pitching.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)
Pitcher: Marco Gonzales – Seattle is hot and Marco in the middle of it. Good chance for a win and 6+K’s
Hitter: Jay Bruce – Stacking Seattle and Colorado tonight. Bruce and Santana could both go deep, Arenado will hit his first HR this year, and Story goes back to back nights
Tout Daily is back for the 2019 season. Tout Daily is a DFS league where the season is broken into five four-week segments. The top three point scorers in each period are awarded a Golden Ticket into the Championship Round. In addition, the Tout accruing the most points over the 20 week regular season earns a wild-card entry into the tourney.
Phil Hertz from Baseball HQ lapped the field in Week 1. His lineup was so dominating, Phil’s 195.35 points would have still lead the pack without Mike Trout’s two-homer evening. Along with Trout, Phil got a big night on the hill from the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove and his seven scoreless, eight strikeout effort against the Reds. Lady Luck also was in Phil’s favor. “At 6:15 pm, it started to pour in Maryland,” Hertz explains. “Remembering I had Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Jonathan Schoop in my lineup, I checked the Philadelphia weather report. All it showed was rain and more rain. I brought up my lineup. Out went Realmuto, in came Tyler Flowers. Out came Schoop, in came Ketel Marte, etc. So if it hadn’t started to pour at home, Steve Gardner and Michael Beller probably win. “
Marte totaled 34 points while Flowers added 19. Phil also played Adam Jones and his 25 points.
There was a rare tie for second as defending champion Michael Beller from Sports Illustrated and Steve Gardner from USA Today each tallied 154.2 points.
Week 1 was a rare Friday night Tout Daily contest. We return to Tuesday this evening, our regular night. Be sure to check back later as the Touts share their favorite hitter and pitcher picks for the Tuesday night slate. We’ll also have a chat posted on ToutWars.com where you can follow along and get your fantasy baseball questions answered.
Welcome to Week 1 of Tout Daily, our year-long DFS league with a twist. The regular season is segmented into five periods, each four weeks long. The top three cumulative scorers in each period earn a trip to the Championship Tournament. A wild-card entry is awarded to the top scorer over the 20 week schedule.
Each contest, we’ll post several Tout’s pitcher and hitter for the slate. Here’s who we like tonight.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)
Pitcher: Nick Pivetta – With Collin McHugh (HOU – P) at $9,500 and Shane Bieber (CLE – P) at $9,300, I’m looking at some lower cost alternatives tonight so that I can go heavier on hitting salaries. My concern with starting either Nick Pivetta (PHI) or Jake Odorizzi (MIN) is that there is a 67% chance of rain tonight in Philadelphia. Check the weather forecast 30 minutes before game time and have a backup plan just in case.
Hitter: David Peralta – Peralta is off to a hot start this season with 7 doubles in his first 7 games this season. He is hitting .455 on the season. Let’s not lose sight that Peralta hit 30 home runs last season. He’s a very intriguing play tonight if you need a high upside outfielder at a value price.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)
Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff – Like Brandon Woodruff’s price. If nothing else should bring some K’s with him.
Hitter: Bryce Harper – Talk about red hot; I’m sticking with him until he cools off.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Pitcher: Trent Thornton – Out of character for me, I prefer safe arms in Tout Daily but I’ll go with the deceptive Thornton facing a weakened Indians lineup
Hitter: Justin Bour – Angels Stadium new-found friendliness to LHB power is still a secret. Lynn has been known to serve up a homer now and again.
Michael Florio (NFL Network, @MichaelFFlorio)
Pitcher: Shane Bieber – I know it is pretty crazy to write up about the second highest pirced pitcher on the board, but the Blue Jays are nearly getting no hit nightly and strikeout a bunch.
Hitter: Kole Calhoun – Angels stadium plays well for left handed power bats, and Lynn does not fair too well there. Also, he has been hitting leadoff which should allow me to squeak in an extra PA.
Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford)
Pitcher: Trent Thornton – If everyone isn’t playing Trent Thorton on DraftKings, I’m not really sure what to say. The guy has an elite spin rate on his breaking ball and is facing an Indians lineup that is devoid of talent. Jose Ramirez is out of a lineup that currently sports a 36 WRC+ and league worst wOBA (.215) against RHP. As the cheapest pitcher on the slate, Thornton should be an easy SP2 for everyone.
Hitter: Joey Gallo – Go big or go home. Joseph Nicholas Gallo is an absolute beast with the power bat. Over his short career, he sports .304 ISO against RHP on his career. Felix Pena may strike hime out once or twice, but does yield 1.27 hr/9 with just 19.7% K%. Look for a moonshot tonight.
Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty)
Pitcher: Kevin Gausman – Most people will gravitate to Collin McHugh or Shane Bieber at this price point, but Gausman faces easily the weakest lineup (Miami) of the trio and has the elite pitch-framing Tyler Flowers paired with an extreme pitchers’ umpire behind the plate. He’s coming off the DL, but he threw 90 pitches on Saturday so he shouldn’t be any more limited than Bieber, who is also making his first start of the year. Gausman always has that blowup outing potential, but the matchup is elite and the ownership will be likely be lower than the other top guys today.
Hitter: Justin Bour – Lance Lynn is one of the weaker pitchers on the slate, and he comes with an extreme platoon split, making a lefty like Bour (who is severely underpriced) one of the top overall 1B plays today.
Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)
Pitcher: Trent Thornton – Good night to go cheap with pitching – no obvious dominators – so I’ll go with Trent Thornton
Hitter: Joe Musgrove – The Reds’ offense has been abysmal over the past week, and I don’t think they get it going tonight against Musgrove. He has only pitched in relief so far this season, but Musgrove looked excellent in that outing. His willingness to pound the zone and ability to induce swings and misses will be a winning combination tonight and throughout the season.
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)
Pitcher: Joe Musgrove – The Reds’ offense has been abysmal over the past week, and I don’t think they get it going tonight against Musgrove. He has only pitched in relief so far this season, but Musgrove looked excellent in that outing. His willingness to pound the zone and ability to induce swings and misses will be a winning combination tonight and throughout the season.
Hitter: Carlos Correa – I’m fading Frankie Montas’ brilliant debut a bit and rostering both Correa and Jose Altuve. Correa has said he feels good and the early hard-hit numbers bear that out (41.7% per FanGraphs).
Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)
Pitcher: Frankie Montas – The main reasons to take Montas is the price. Colin McHugh is much more of a sure thing tonight, but by saving $1500 on the pitcher, I can execute the Rangers left handed bats stack plus get all the hitters with tons of upside versus opposite handed pitchers. Montas needs his command tonight. Major leaguers hit his mistakes. He was sharp last time out with the single mistake to Kole Calhoun who took him yard.
Hitter: Joey Gallo – Gallo has a .527 wOBA versus RHP this season and is the kind of player you need in your tournament play. He is capable of a double dong on any given night. Tonight he faces Felix Pena who took 61 pitches to get 11 outs on the 30th of March. This is a great spot for all the left handed bats on the Rangers. Go big, baby!
Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated, @MBeller)
Pitcher: Joe Musgrove – I’m a pay-for-pitching zealot, but there’s no one on tonight’s slate that warrants the price tag in my estimation. Cincinnati’s offense is off to a terrible start, and this should be a good spot for Musgrove in his first start of the season. He’s going to force every team he faces to swing the bats, and I’m just not afraid of a Reds team that has to be aggressive.
Hitter: Bryce Harper – I love the look of a Phillies’ stack tonight, and I’ve got Harper paired with Jean Segura. No reason to get too cute, here. Harper is 8-for-16 with three homers in his brief tenure with the Phillies.
Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)
Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff – Like seemingly everyone else, I’m looking to save money on my pitching so that I can load up on hitters – maybe that’s too chalky, but oh well. I like Woodruff’s stuff and price.
Hitter: J.D. Martinez – I’m running a Red Sox stack – Martinez, Betts, Benintendi, Xander and Devers. If Zach Godley beats me, so be it.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella)
Pitcher: Rick Porcello – Everyone’s shying away from the “higher priced” arms on this slate, but give me Porcello, a humidor and an NL lineup where he gets two free at bats against the pitcher, please. I did go cheaper on my second arm, which gave me an opportunity to add Acuna, who is a HR/SB threat every night.
Hitter: Ronald Acuna
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)
Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff – Saving some $’s hoping to get 7 innngs and 5-7 k’s vs Cub lineup still not clicking yet
Hitter: Carlos Santana – He’s been hot and Cleveland desperately needs him. Going against Blue Jay rookie Thornton, hoping experience wins out.
With competitions in five different formats, one or more of
the Tout Wars 2019 leagues likely matches up with your chosen style of play,
whether AL- or NL-only, or Mixed Auction, Draft or Head-to-Head.
For those whose leagues have weekly free agent (FAAB) acquisitions
each Sunday night, the Touts are here to help you. We’ve moved our own
deadlines to 8 p.m. ET each Sunday. That enables us to share with you our bids,
hopefully before you have to make your own.
Sunday Night FAAB
Reports
To that end, right here on ToutWars.com, we will post as
quickly as possible after 8 p.m. ET Sundays, a quick summary of the week’s top
bids along with links to the detailed bidding results in each of the five
leagues.
Sunday Night Chats
Further, we are going to test a new Sunday night chat, also
here at ToutWars.com. It will begin at 9:00 p.m. ET and continue until all
questions are answered, or midnight, whichever comes first. The chats will be
hosted by one of the Touts. You can ask about the week’s bidding in any of the
leagues as well as get your own league questions answered by a prominent
industry analyst. Other Touts may also stop by to defend/explain their moves.
Whether these chats will become a weekly fixture will depend
on how much they are used and how effective they are perceived to be – so, if
they are of interest to you, please take advantage.
All of this – the weekly FAAB Reports as well as the chats –
begin this Sunday evening, March 31.
Please join the Touts to gain a bidding edge in your
leagues!
This is the place we put links to the Touts writings about their teams and their leagues. (You can see the results in the Tout Wars Data section in the right nav.)
