Category: About Tout Wars

TOUT AL: Erickson Finds Reason to Hope

See the standings here
JEFF ERICKSON writes-
I was feeling pretty despondent about my chances, and I’ve still got a pretty big uphill battle, but a good weekend has pushed me up to the Plausibility Zone. The categories have tightened up in a number of places – I still need help, but they could happen.

The areas where I could make up the three-point gap:

– Runs: I’m down 2 runs to Behrens, and Larry is up three on Leibowitz (14 on me – that’s not going to happen). So I could conceivably make up two points right there.

– HR: I’m tied with Rick/Glenn, one HR ahead of Rob, four behind Jason Collette. So possible 1.5 point upside, possible 1.5 point downside. But wait, there’s more. Larry entered tonight tied with Moyer in HR and one homer behind Lawr. So he has a 1.5-point upside and just a half-point downside.

– RBI: This is pretty funny. I’m locked-and-loaded in third place there, but Larry was up just four RBI on Rick/Glenn heading into tonight. So I find myself hoping they get more RBI, but not on homers. So Larry has one point of downside.

– SB: We each really only have downside here – I’m up 2 on Behrens, Larry is up 4 on Berry. Let’s call that 1 point of downside for me, half-point of downside for Larry.

– AVG: I’m locked into first in BA, but Larry started Monday .0003 ahead of Collette. One point of downside for Larry.

So, just with hitting, I have 2.5 points of upside, 2.5 points of downside. Larry has 1.5 points of upside, 4 points of possible downside. There’s a lot of swing potential right there.

More coming on the pitching side of things. Tomorrow I’ll dive more into specific players I’m rooting for and against.

TOUT MIXED: Minnix Holds Out Hope

NICK MINNIX: I could expand on my needs in order to overcome Cory Schwartz’s 16-point lead in Tout Mixed.

I could wish that two teams pass Cory in WHIP and another duo passes him in strikeouts. It wouldn’t hurt if one team within striking distance of him in runs jumped ahead of him, nor would it if he lost the point in batting average on which he has such a tenuous hold.

I could hope that my team gains a couple of points in WHIP. That’s definitely possible.

I could yearn to see my virtual club steal 4 more bases than his does this week so that it regains the lead I’d had in that cat for a good while.

Aaaaannnnnd … I could mention that in the next three days my team needs to hit 16 more home runs than his does. I could also state the obvious – that if my team makes up 16 ding dongs, it’s practically certain to accrue the 9 RBIs it needs to overtake him in that category as well. Plus, I’d pass one other team in each instance!

But then I could do the math and realize that, even if all that were to happen, I’d still come up a couple of points short. So, what I really need, only “Footloose” can provide.

And, I need to congratulate Cory on putting together a hell of a team.

TOUT AL: What it will take

With three games left Larry Schechter has a three point lead over Jeff Erickson. In FAAB this week Erickson claimed Al Albuquerque, but didn’t get him. Schechter replaced three pitchers (Andy Pettitte, Erasmo Ramirez and Jason Vargas) with Maicer Izturis (Swing!), and two pitchers, Joel Peralta and Nate Jones. How do the two teams stack up in points?

RUNS: Schechter could lose one point (he’s up 3), while Erickson could gain one (he’s down 2).

HR: Schechter could lose 1/2 or gain 1 1/2 (he’s tied and down 1), while Erickson could gain 1/2 or lose 1 1/2 (he’s tied and up 1).

RBI: Schechter could lose one (he’s up 4), while Erickson is set.

SB: Schechter is set, while Erickson is up 2.

BA: Schechter could lose 1, he’s up .0003, while Erickson is probably set.

WINS: Erickson is .07 ahead of Schechter.

WHIP: Both are probably set.

SAVES: Schechter could lose 1 (he’s up 1), while Erickson is set.

WINS: Schechter could lose 1 (he’s up 1), and so could Erickson (he’s up 1).

K: Schechter could lose 1 or maybe gain 1 (he’s up 1, he’s down 7), while Erickson is set.

SUMMARY:

Team           PTS          HI            LOW
Schechter  89.5          92              83
Erickson    86.5         88              84

It doesn’t look like Erickson can overtake Schechter this week on his own, but Larry is going to have plenty of opportunities to lose this one.

We Have a Race!

A week ago Larry Schechter seemed to have reestablished his lead over Jeff Erickson in Tout Wars AL. Larry dominant lead in the first half had withered in August but grown in September, but now, with four ML games left, Jeff has clawed back into striking distance. Maybe. Here’s what the leaders are thinking on the night of September 29th:

JEFF ERICKSON: My quest to become the one Mike Trout owner to not win an AL-only league is going quite swimmingly tonight. Seeing Max Scherzer’s start get scratched wasn’t pleasant.

LARRY SCHECHTER: This is unlike any other time of the year, in that I am paying attention to where ever anything in the standings is close for me or Jeff.  i.e., if Ron has a starter going, I hope he gets a win but not too many K’s.

The highlight last night was Infante hitting a HR, which my offense desperately needed, and which blew a possible win for Diamond and knocked him out of the game…which was good because Diamond is owned Mike Siano, who is just one win behind me.

My offense is limping to the end here, with tons of injuries.  Besides Big Papi and Markakis, who really hurt me, lately Asdrubal keeps missing games here and there; and Gutierrez and Molina just got hurt this week.

Two Sundays ago I FAAB’d Bourgeious instead of Endy Chavez, and that was the wrong choice.  Endy played almost every day and did better.  So this past Sunday I FAAB’d Endy and benched Bourgeious, and all of a sudden Endy’s on the bench.  He’s only started once so far this week.