What are your top-three considerations with respect to selecting your pitcher for Tout Daily?
Scott Engel, www.rotoexperts.com, @scotteRotoEx: Match-up first, then see if I can keep the price down. Then the opposing pitcher, don’t want my top starter bested by another ace.
Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels: Strikeouts first, followed by wRC+ and wOBA by the opposing team.
Rick Wolf, www.fantasyalarm.com, @RickWolf1: Since it is a one-pitcher league, I think you have to get the SP right. That doesn’t mean select the highest salary pitcher, it means select that pitcher that you are most sure will deliver you Top 3 value and not give you negative points. I look at the DFS Playbook PRO at Fantasy Alarm to get umpire reports, rankings, projections, vs team data and select the pitcher most likely to win that also will have the most points in doing so. Sometimes it is more art than strictly numbers as we know that trends continue especially for hot SPs at home usually. It is not always Kershaw that is the best pick, there are a lot of factors. Don’t screw it up.
Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte: First I look for pitchers facing bad teams and bad pitchers. The win is the thing. Then I look for strikeouts, either from the pitcher or because the opposing team has lots of guys who strike out. Finally, there is price. A pitcher in the $8-9K range allows you to take an extra hitter or two, rather than $2,200 guys. But the key thing is getting points from your starter, so sometimes it makes sense to pay more and then hope to find hitting bargains.
Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323: 1. Quality of the pitcher. 2. Is he home or away? 3. Quality of the opposition. I may switch 2 and 3 in pursuit of points, but you notice that salary ranks behind them all.
Paul Sporer, www.fangraphs.com, @sporer: 1. His Talent 2. His Opposition 3. His Venue (more home/away than particular parks except of course the obvious Coors & Rogers Centre… I know how much you love park factors, Todd!)
Editors Note: Grumble. Grumble. Grumble.
Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports: First, the pitcher needs to have pitched well in his last few previous starts. Second, the pitcher needs to be in a situation where he can have a good chance at double digit strike outs and pitch at least 7 innings. Third, the pitcher needs to be favored to win the game, the better the odds of his winning, the better selection he’ll be.
Andrea LaMont, www.rotoexperts.com, @rotolady: 1) Opposing team and location. 2) PQS scores (last three starts) – specifically that BB × 2 < K , HA < IP, and IP > 5. 3) Run Support and quality of defense
Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa: 1) How good is the pitcher? 2) How good is the opposing offense? 3) How good is the opposing pitcher?
Phil Hertz, www.baseballhq.com, @prhz50: Price, chances for a win, ballpark.
Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis: What has worked for me this season is building my roster around an ace pitcher. When I have gone with lower-salaried options, I haven’t been as successful, so my first consideration is rostering one of the top starting pitchers for that day. The second selection criteria is looking at a pitcher’s last 3 starts to see how well they have pitched, how deep they are going into games, and developing the projected fantasy points for the top pitchers. I then compare the projected points to their starting salaries to derive a “dollars per fantasy point” metric. The lower the dollars per fantasy point, the more likely I will start that pitcher that evening. The last consideration is taking into consideration what type of hitting team I can roster against the cost of the starting pitcher. Sometimes, I just can’t make it work, or don’t feel comfortable with the hitters selected. So it may be a combination of the hitters that I want for that evening, with my second choice at starting pitcher. It’s just as much an art as it is a science for me. Just as important is taking something away for each roster that I have played so that I can fine tune my strategies for future events.
Patrick Davit, www.baseballhq.com, @patrickdavitt: 1) Value, which I define as reasonable points expectation per salary dollar. 2) Strikeouts match-up. 3) Likelihood of a win (quality of opp, quality of opp pitcher).
Nando DiFino, www.rotoexperts.com, @nandodifino: 1) Price – I believe in spending a lot on the pitcher and forcing bargains in the hitting spots. Overall, it seems to be the constant in the lineups that end up winners.
2) Talent – If I believe in Matt Boyd (and I do, most nights), I will keep him in consideration, even if he isn’t one of the aces. 3) Match-up – If Boyd is at Colorado, though, I’m probably going to pass. If he’s against the Phillies, he’s still in the running. Maybe Boyd is a bad example because #1 usually eliminates his type, but I’ll use him here and there just to be a little against the grain.
Chris Liss, www.rotowire.com, @Chris_Liss: I don’t really have separate considerations – it’s a combination of price, quality, recent performance, opponent, park, opposing pitcher (to a small extent), K-rate, and the other options on the slate. If an ace has a good matchup and is pitching well, I’ll almost always use him. If the aces have bad matchups or have hit rough patches, I’ll sometimes go dirt cheap if the matchup/park is right and load up on hitting.
Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola: Since the question specifically asked about Tout Daily, the first thing I do is decide if I want to play it more like a cash game or like a tournament. For cash, I want the pitcher I project to score the most points, regardless of price so my second step is estimating the number of innings plus strikeouts and using that as my ranking (my go-to stats are K% for pitcher and opposing lineup and approximate wOBA/wRC+ for opposing lineup). I usually have my guy after this second step but if it’s close (close being within the points given for a win), I’ll use win probability based on Vegas odds. By the nature of step two, the top ranked hurler is almost always favored. If I’m playing more like a top-heavy tourney, I want a guy with a chance for a big +EV. By nature, the lower priced pitchers usually fit the bill. The second step is maximizing strikeout potential since that’s where the upside is with a lesser pitcher. The third is opposing pitcher. By choosing a lesser pitcher, I’m already putting the win in jeopardy. if my underdog throws a good game, the last think I want is for a loss or no-decision.
Five months, five games, and Bret Sayre leads Patrick Mayo by 14.5 points in the race for the 2015 Tout X championship.
