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Tout Wars Mixed Draft: Now, Isn’t That Surprising?

What looked to be a mano a mano duel between Adam Ronis and Rudy Gamble, is suddenly the story of a frontrunner being chased by three, yes three, teams.

To be sure, Ronis has enough of a lead that if he can maintain his point total a lot else has to go wrong for anyone to catch him. But now, instead of one team in his taillights he has three.

Ronis also has three and a half points, in steals, wins and WHIP, that could easily be lost. Were he to fall to 105, Gamble, Albright or the surprising (how did he get here) Perry Van Hook could catch him.

Van Hook has gained 7 points this week already, and could add perhaps three more with a perfect day. In one category, stolen bases, he and Ronis are tied.

You can hop over to onRoto and game out all the possibilities. There are a lot of them, if Ronis has a bad day.

In other news, it’s pretty safe to call the NL race for Mike Gianella, the AL race for Chris Liss, and the Mixed Auction race for Fred Zinkie. Congratulations to all three.

The Tout Wars Races: Checking In

What's at stake? An item on Foley's menu in March, for one. (click to enlarge) — What’s at stake? An item on Foley’s menu in March, for one. (click to enlarge)

There are three days left in the season. Three games left for each major league team, though a massive storm plus a possible hurricane in the east may affect games in Baltimore (versus Yankees), Philadelphia (versus Miami) and New York (versus Washington). None of these series will matter in determining the playoffs, so rainouts on Sunday (or Saturday and Sunday) may not be rescheduled.

How are things looking in Tout Wars? Let’s start with the easy ones.

AL: Chris Liss leads Mike Podhorzer by 8.5 points. Liss’s volatility index gives him a range of 86-97 points. Podhorzer could finish with 79-88. The door is not completely shut, but everything has to go right for Podhorzer and completely wrong for Liss.

NL: Mike Gianella leads Tristan Cockcroft by 11 points. Gianella range is 87-95.5, while Cockcroft’s is 75-86. There is virtually no chance that Cockcroft can make up enough ground, no matter how badly Gianella’s team goes.

Mix Auction: Fred Zinkie leads Scott Swanay by 4 points, and Tim Heaney by 6. It’s good be Zinkie, for sure, but there are still lots of points in play. Zinkie has already gained three points in homers this week, but lost them in Runs, OBP, ERA and Saves, and is tied in Runs and Saves. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played here.

Mix Draft: Adam Ronis is 2 points ahead of Rudy Gamble, who is 3.5 points ahead of Grey Albright. Rudy has gained five points this week, which means he could give back five easily enough. He’s in a three-way tie in wins, with one ahead and one behind. One of the guys he’s tied with is Ronis. Crazy things could happen there. Gamble has five starts over the weekend, while Ronis has just two. There is also a four-way tie in saves. Gamble has Tolleson, Feliz and Robbie Ross(who has yet to get a save and wasn’t listed in the intial post), McLeod has Axford, Vizcaino, and Jepsen, Kessenich lost Huston Street and is left with Hector Rondon, and Paul Sporer has Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Over three games, pretty much anything can happen in saves. Plus there are a mess of possibilities in ERA and Ratio. Keep your eye on this one folks! That said, Grey Albright doesn’t have much headroom, especially since Gamble and Ronis each stand to either gain or lose in the categories in which they’re tied, so it’s hard to see them both falling. Which makes Grey something of a spoiler, especially since he’s right behind Ronis in ERA and right behind Gamble in strikeouts, with his five red hot starters going.

Where Do They Stand In Tout Wars Mixed Draft? Close. So Close.

At the All Star break Adam Ronis was in first place, Rudy Gamble was in third place, 17.5 points behind, and Grey Albright was in sixth place, 11.5 points even farther back.

By mid August, Gamble had moved into first place, Ronis was three and a half points behind in second, and Albright was in fifth, 10.5 more points behind Ronis.

On September 13th, two weeks ago, Gamble and Ronis were tied at 110.5, and Albright was in eighth place, 22 points behind.

Since then Albright has gained 17 points, six in ERA and three in WHIP, to vault over six teams and land in second place.

You know who helped? Jake Arrieta, having perhaps the greatest half-season of any pitcher ever, and Stephen Strasburg, whose early-season woes have been forgotten. In fact, all of Albright’s pitchers got hot at once, and two weeks with 130 innings of 1.794 ERA and .959 WHIP changed his season.

Asked what it was going to take for him to win, Albright said, “I need a miracle.

Actually…

Considering my team’s top home run hitter is Khris Davis and I had Strasburg on an off-year, I’d say I already had the miracle by being in third.”

Maybe, but consider that just three days ago, Albright was six and a half points behind Ronis and Gamble, who were tied. Team Albright is on the move.

And Team Gamble has gone in the wrong direction. What happened? Rudy writes:

Despite topping the league in R/HR/RBI, my team lost a stomach-churning 9 points last week because my overachieving pitching staff (through August) continued its September swoon thanks to regression, injuries (my top SP and RP – Kluber and Perkins – have contributed 12 IP of 0 Wins, 1 Save and a ~9.00 ERA in September), bad scheduling luck (5 of my SPs have had away starts at Coors in past 10 days), and some regretful decisions on rostering/FAAB (just about anything would’ve been better than rolling with Brett Anderson’s 2 start week last week).

But if I could lose all those points in a short time, I can gain them as well. My offense has been rolling all 2nd half and could snag a couple points with another good week. I will definitely need luck to beat Ronis in OBP (down .001 which would require being about +0.023 for the week) and SBs (tied but he has Pollock/Ellsbury and my best SB guys are Parra/Lindor). I picked up Robbie Ross and Feliz on FAAB to pair with Tolleson in hopes of gaining as much as 3 points in Saves (2 behind a troika of teams). There are ERA and WHIP points to be had. I will likely lose another K point given Perry is going with 9 SPs.

When I talked with Grey earlier last week, I gave myself 3:1 odds because my pitching felt so vulnerable. After my worst fears were realized, it’s definitely worse than that. But final weeks of the season can be real unpredictable (c’mon Cubs/Pirates – you have to rest Cole/Arrieta) so fingers crossed.

When asked what it would take to catch Ronis and Abright, he said, “A very good pitching week, a solid hitting week, and average or worse weeks for Adam and Grey. “

Which puts Adam Ronis in the catbird seat, at least for now, though he isn’t feeling that comfortable, it seems:

My team needs several categories to go my way in order for me to win. Rudy Gamble and I have exchanged the top spot several times over the last couple of weeks. Wins are one key category. Going into Saturday, Gamble and I each have 82 wins. Gamble is one stolen base in front of me. With great performances from Rich Hill and Gerrit Cole on Friday, I moved one spot ahead of Gamble in ERA. It was one start but the two-hit shutout, 10-strikeout performance by Hill was huge. For several weeks I rolled with three closers and it has given me 13 points in the save category and an advantage of seven saves over the next guy. At one point, I was in the middle of a crowded back. Tom Wilhelmsen was a nice addition. If the last few weeks are any indication, it’s going to come down to the final day and making lineup decisions for the final week will be key.

In this week’s FAAB Ronis picked up Dustin Pedroia, Albright claimed Kurt Suzuki and Jordy Mercer, and Gamble picked up Robbie Ross, Neftali Feliz and JP Arencibia.

How does the volatility index look?

Ronis has 5.5 points to gain and 5.5 to lose, which gives him a max of 116 and a low of 105.

Gamble could gain 11.5 points and could lose 7.5. If everything went right he could finish with 114, while if it all went south he end up at 95.

Albright could gain six points, and potentially lose 8.5, which means his best score is 111.5, and his worst is 97.

Follow the standings all week at onRoto.com.

A Three Way Race in Tout Wars Mixed Auction Will Go Down to the Final Day, Probably.

Fred Zinkie said, “When I joined Tout Wars, I didn’t think it would take years off my life! I seem to get into these races often, but I can never figure out a way to separate. This year has been no different.”

When Fred says “separate” he means get a big enough lead that he can trot to the finish line. As a two-time champ, he has found ways to come out on top.

As we enter the last seven days of the 2015 season, Fred has opened a six point lead over Tim Heaney and Scott Swanay.

Swanay isn’t confident of his chances. “My team would have to be extremely lucky the rest of the way to win. Bats have been asleep since mid-August, so a lot of things would need to break my way to come out on top. Fred’s team has the highest point ceiling of the three, but Tim made some very shrewd late-season roster additions (e.g.- Yordano Ventura for a buck off the waiver wire) that enabled him to regain the lead. It’s not often that you have different leaders 3 consecutive days with just over a week to go – whatever happens the last 7 days, it’s been a fun ride. Good luck, Tim and Fred!”

Heaney noted that Fred increased his lead Sunday night. He has a three-prong path to victory:

“My team needs many things:

1. My recent power surge to continue. The runs, home runs, and RBI columns are volatile and vulnerable. Yoenis Cespedes just about single-handedly carried my offense for almost two months but is running out of gas.

2. I must also keep pace in strikeouts and wins, so I’m going to have to play off the final week of pitching. I shifted my focus away from starting pitching in the last few months as I’ve tried to rebuild my offense and load up at closer. I’ve lost some traction in WHIP (to Fred Zinkie, of all people) and strikeouts as a result.

3. Have to watch for players who might be resting with postseason berths either officially or all but clinched.”

In Sunday night’s waivers Heaney added Tanner Roark and Dan Haren. Swanay countered with Nick Tropeano, Jorge Lopez (who makes his major league debut Tuesday at Petco), and Chris Bassitt, plus JJ Hardy, and Zinkie stood pat.

To win, Zinkie says that “in short, my team needs to hit. I have little room to move in the pitching categories. But I could go in either direction in most hitting categories. With good hitting across the final nine days of the season, I could add 5-6 points to my overall total. With poor hitting, I could lose just as many. Many of my hitters are bunched on the Yankees, Royals, Indians and Orioles. Having those teams succeed down the stretch will make a big difference.”

Some of those plus points came Sunday, after a period when Fred said his team “has been chasing a pack of teams in homers all month, but I have made little progress. The emergence of Darren O’Day as the O’s short-term closer is going to cost me a point in the saves category, and I definitely didn’t see that coming. But overall, I have been mostly treading water in each category.”

Tim Heaney was in second place at the All Star break, 26 points ahead of Swanay and Zinkie, who were a half point apart, virtually tied for fifth place. Since then Swanay and Zinkie have been, by far, the league’s two best teams. Heaney has been the third best.

Tim said about what has happened since: “Despite my starting pitcher decline, I’ve had minor success with rentals Tim Hudson and Erik Johnson the last few weeks. So playing the matchups again the final week is ideal. My $1 of FAAB might hinder that plan.

Didn’t help having Cespedes’ slump and dead weight players like Justin Turner and Greg Holland in my lineup this week — players who can’t be placed on the disabled list because their major league team didn’t put them on theirs — left me behind in warm bodies with at-bats.

I finished third in my rookie mixed auction season and in several years have flashed a few stretches when I’ve been first or close. Fred and Scott are seasoned, smart players. Year after year, this league proves that it’s one of the toughest in the fantasy world.

Good (but not that good) luck to Fred and Scott. This is exciting.”

A look at the volatility index, an assessment of possible points go be gained or lost, supports the claims of all three.

Zinkie could gain up to six points and could lose 7.5. His top score could be 114.5, his worst would be 101.

Heaney could gain 9.5 points, and could lose 8.5. His top score could be 111.5, his worst could be 93.5.

Swanay has a potential seven points of upside, and nine points of downside. His best score could be 109.5, his worst could be 93.5.

To see the current rosters and standings, visit ToutWars.com.

Mike Gianella on Tout Wars NL and His Chances

We appreciate Mike Gianella’s weekly FAAB reports covering Tout AL and NL over at Baseball Prospectus on Tuesdays. The final one for this season will come this Tuesday, and don’t expect him to be making too many changes. We asked him some basic questions about the last eight days of his battle with Tristan Cockcroft, which we wrote about earlier today. He had this to say:

What does your team need in order to win?
At this point, I have probably done everything I can do in terms of what is in my control. I need to get a few wins to keep the clump of teams behind me from catching me and I need to avoid a disastrous pitching week to lose a point in ERA. But I don’t have much mobility in either direction. There is a path for Tristan to catch me, but he needs nearly everything to go right in the last week for him for it to happen. It’s not impossible, but it is fair to say it is a longshot.

Has anything changed for your team in the last week or two that is making a difference, for or against?
No, because thankfully (for me at least) a combination of strong hitting performances in August along with Tristan’s pitching staff unraveling has put me in a very comfortable position. Jose Reyes and Ben Revere have stopped running and I’ve had trouble procuring wins, but this hasn’t made much of a difference and most likely won’t.

The Tout Wars NL Race. Is It Over?

Here’s the first thing you need to know: In the Tout NL draft-day standings, those are the rosters each team left the draft with and no moves since, Mike Gianella would be ahead of Derek Carty at this point, 83 to 80.

In fact, in the real Tout world, where teams FAAB players weekly, and make trades, Gianella leads three-time champ Tristan Cockcroft, 92.5 to 81.5. Not only did Gianella have the best auction, but he seems to have had one of the best seasons, too. He’s gained 9.5 points over his draft, while Cockcroft has gained nine.

How much of a chance does Cockcroft have to catch up to Gianella? I toted up their potential positive and negative points, the volatility index, to see how much overlap there is between them. This is fairly easy in the counting categories, but harder in the qualitatives, where there are more moving pieces. So, there is some chance either team call fall outside this range, but this should give a fair idea of the possibilities of where they will end up.

Mike Gianella could gain or lose 4.5 points, which puts him between 97 and 88 points.

Tristan Cockcroft could gain 7.5 points or lose 8.5, which puts him between 89 and 73 points.

The chance for a fourpeat is still alive, but just barely. Is it over? Yes, you can put the YooHoo on ice.

Chris Liss is a winner, FakeTeams.com declares!

Scoby Snacks, at FakeTeams.com, has posted a story called How Chris Liss Ran Away With AL Tout Wars.

Liss has a seven point lead over Mike Podhorzer today, with eight days left in the season, so Snacks is almost surely right. As Podhorzer noted yesterday, he has a lot of ground to make up, but he does have ways to do it. So let’s wait and see.

In the meantime, you can read Snacks’ article, which errs in one important detail. While Liss didn’t spend big bucks in FAAB during the year, he did make some big bids. When he bought Carlos Correa for a buck, he bid $34. Tout’s Vickrey FAAB bidding reduced it to $1 because no one else bid.

While he acquired Shawn Tolleson for $1 on April 13th, he actually bid $5. The bid was reduced to $1 because no one else bid.

Liss’s bidding in both cases was especially impressive when you look at the timeline. Correa wasn’t called up to the majors until five weeks after Liss bought him, and Tolleson didn’t earn a save until five weeks after Liss bought him.

I took a closer look at the standings and roughly added up the close points up and down for each player. Call this the volatility index.

Liss has five points to gain and nine and a half to lose. His range is 95.5 to 81.

Podhorzer has eight and a half points to gain, and eight points to lose. His range is 92 to 75.5.

Liss is in the driver’s seat, for sure, but there is a lot of overlap there.

The Pennant Races: Tout Wars AL

Over the next few days we’ll take a look at the state of the pennant races around Tout Wars.

The top two spots in Tout AL are held by former Tout Mixed Auction champions, Chris Liss and Mike Podhorzer. Both think that Liss’s 10.5 point lead is probably safe. Here are the standings through Friday night’s games (if you want to dig deeper into the team’s rosters and transactions, click here):

But both also know that Mike has a chance. Mike says:

My hitters need to actually be in the lineup and reverse my team’s second half offensive slide. Also, it would be wonderful if my starting pitcher’s teams scored some runs for them so they could earn wins. As I type this, just three wins gains me four points! A big week of saves would also be huge. With two closers, I have the potential to gain a couple of points in the category as well. It’s going to be a challenge to take back the lead for sure, but there still remains a sliver of a chance. I think Liss’ preemptive pickup of Correa was clearly the move of the season!

Liss picked up Carlos Correa for $1, reduced by Vickrey from $34. That’s right, nobody else bid. Liss had to bide his time, Correa wasn’t called up the Houston until a month later, but he has been well worth the wait. Note that on the day Liss bought Correa he was in second place, a few points behind Podhorzer. On the day Liss was finally able to promote him, he was a few points ahead of Podhorzer. Their standings had reversed. Liss hopes it stays that way.

My team needs simply not to blow it. Pitchers keep their ERA under 4.5, WHIP under 1.4, hitters show up and be okay. Hopefully Mike’s team takes the week off, just so I don’t have to sweat it.

We’ll see.

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