Category: Article

Sayre Extends Tout X Lead in Game 4!

vikingposeBret Sayre may be a Dynasty Guru, but he’s shown monthly control in the Tout X game being played at Shandler Park.  In Game 4 Sayre was the first player to win two months of the game, and the only player to top 50 points all four games.

Doug Anderson has shrugged off a disastrous Game 1, and after finishing first in Game 3 finished second this past month, climbing into fourth place overall.

Patrick Mayo and Andrea Lamont have posted consistently solid scores all four games and rank second and third going into the penultimate game.

Read more about the Tout Was X game here.

Sayre spent big on Paul Goldschmidt, who had a .450 OBP but only hit one homer and drove in 12 runs. More productive was Mike Trout, with 12 homers in the four week contest, Carlos Gonzalez and JD Martinez.

Sayre’s strategy each month has been to load up on hitters and pick off cheap pitchers. His ace this month was the $16 Corey Kluber, and he didn’t spend more than 10 for any other pitcher ($10 went for Lance McCullers). Oh, and he bought no relievers.

The formula has worked, and it will be interesting if his Tout Wars X opponents adopt more of his style this month.

Here are the final stats for Bret Sayre’s Game 4 winning team (click images to enlarge):

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Eno Sarris Kicks It in Week 4 of Tout Daily…

…but Scott Engel’s big week lands him a ticket to the finals!

Engel’s 51.25 points for the week, good enough for second place on the week, leapt him from 13th to second place overall for Phase 4 of the Tout Daily contest, a ticket to the August 28th finals where 15 rosters will compete for $2,000, and designation as Tout Wars Daily Champion of 2015.

EnoSARRIS-150x150But for the week Engel finished second, behind Eno Sarris, whose team jumped from 25th to fourth with a 53 point week. Sarris’s team featured a strong pitching performance by Andrew Cashner (15 points, owned by three teams), and solid hitting from Joey Votto, Ian Desmond, and Charlie Blackmon, all popular choices, and Carlos Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig, both owned by three teams.

Sarris’s team (click to enlarge):

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Engel’s team was built around Ian Thomas, the Dodger reliever who wasn’t supposed to last five innings but did (earning a win), and cost just $4,200. Engel was Thomas’s only owner. Engel used his savings to also roster Votto, Desmond and Blackmon, and then added the pricey and productive Todd Frazier and Mike Trout.

Twelve of the 15 tickets have now been awarded to (ordered by total points in the four phases): Lenny Melnick, Scott Pianowski, Adam Ronis (two tickets!), Michael Beller, Ray Murphy, Scott Engel, Jeff Boggis, Charlie Wiegert, Lawr Michaels, Jeff Erickson and Tom Kessenich. Kessenich did not play in Phase 1, suppressing his total.

The highest scorer yet to earn a ticket is Seth Trachtman, who has topped 150 points twice and is fifth overall, but is not yet in the finals.

Trachtman and the rest of the Touts will start the fifth and final phase in the July 31 Tout Daily contest by Fanduel.

See the complete Leaderboard here.

Scott Engle’s Phase 4 Week 4 team (click to enlarge):

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Tout Picks for the July 24 Phase 4 Finale of #toutdaily by @fanduel!

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We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 16 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 4 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Going into this Week Ray Murphy has a 10 point lead over Charlie Wiegert, with Brian Walton and Todd Zola just behind.

The leaderboard is here. Three of the current Phase Top 10 (Jeff Boggis, Michael Beller and Lenny Melnick) already have a ticket to the finals, with Boggis more than 11 points behind Walton in third place..

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Boggis have tickets to the finals already.

Here are this week’s picks!

BRIAN WALTON

I will pass on all four pitchers over $10,000 today, and take number five, the Yankees’ Michael Pineda ($9600 at Minnesota), who draws the Twins on the road. The 26-year-old has been pitching well as of late, with 26 strikeouts in his last 27 2/3 innings and a 2.28 ERA.

None of the Cardinals hitters have seen Atlanta’s Manny Banuelos, but shortstop Jhonny Peralta ($3300 vs Atlanta) hits lefties consistently well and has been quietly leading St. Louis’ offense all season long with 14 home runs and 48 RBI. Peralta remains a relative bargain as the seventh-most expensive shortstop on Friday.

 

PHIL HERTZ

Chris Tillman ($6,300 at Tampa Bay)

Brian Dozier ($3,700 vs. New York Yankees)

JEFF ERICKSON

Chris Archer ($10,600 vs. Baltimore) On a slate full of aces, I’m trying to save up with him, and hopefully the O’s continue their recent underachieving ways. I might still find a way to pivot to Max Scherzer if I can save enough with the bats, but FanDuel’s pricing is getting more aggressive with hitters.

David Ortiz ($3,300 vs. Detroit) I really want to find a way to get Joey Votto in there, but Ortiz at home against Justin Verlander is really enticing too, and $1.2K cheaper. Plus, he homered yesterday, so form is pretty good, too.

JEFF BOGGIS

Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox) This is the last week of the phase 4 contest and I am within 11 points of the elusive golden ticket into the finals. So my strategy tonight may be more aggressive than in other weeks as it is an all or nothing type lineup for me tonight. I started a week ago, thinking about how I would construct tonight’s roster and my goal was to build my roster around starting pitcher Zack Greinke. One data point that I did not take into consideration was around Zack’s wife being pregnant and about to go into labor. Greinke has decided to be with his wife on Friday and won’t be pitching tonight. So my plan B for pitching tonight came down to rostering one of three players: Max Scherzer ($12,000), Felix Hernandez ($11,300) or Corey Kluber ($11,000). Scherzer is at Pittsburgh, Hernandez hosts Toronto, and Kluber hosts the Chicago White Sox. Looking at all three matches, I like my win probability highest with Kluber. His K/IP is similar to Scherzer’s and I can roster him at $1,000 less. Most will roster Scherzer, but I need to slightly go against the grain.

Joey Votto ($4,500 at Colorado) A great matchup on the road at hitter friendly Coors Field in Colorado and facing Colorado pitcher Eddie Butler.  I think the stack of the night is any value players on either Cincinnati or Colorado.

DOUG ANDERSON

Michael Pineda ($9,600 @Minnesota Twins)  I could easily go with Kluber or Archer , but Kluber cost more, and it’s hard to expect the Rays to score enough runs to get Archerthe win. Pineda offers a nice combination of upside, matchup, and affordability.

Robinson Cano ($3,400 vs. Toronto) Drew Hutchinson (RHP), is the starter. You may not have noticed, but most of Cano’s struggles this year have come against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .282 with eight of his nine homers off of righties. He’s also hitting .354 in July and .407 since the All-Star break.

 CHARLIE WIEGERT

I’m spending the bucks and going with the “safe” pick, Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox), mainly because I think he gives me the best chance to stay in the top 3 spots of the monthly leader board.  Safe, because I think he has a good chance of double digit strike outs pitching at home against the White Sox.  The sleeper pitcher I like tonight is Jon Niese, pitching against the Dodgers, which might be an audition.  I could see the Dodgers trading Carl Crawford to the Mets to get his arm in their rotation, which needs help!

I don’t have the money for all I’d like in the Colorado/Cincinnati game, but I’ll take Nolan Arenado ($4800 vs. Cincinnati) as my guy to click.  And with Kluber, I need a few value picks, rolling the dice with Ryan Rayburn ($2200) and Chris Parmelee ($2200).

GENE MCCAFFREY

The usual Friday batch of tough calls, but I like Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox) among the pitchers, at home vs. a White Sox attack that ranks 25th against righties in OPS. His salary requires some cheap hitters and I’ll start with Salvador Perez ($2,200 vs. Houston) to ruin Scott Kazmir’s Astro debut.

ENO SARRIS

Andrew Cashner ($7,300 vs. Miami) Only three teams have been worse than the Marlins with the stick this year. Only three teams have had less power. Cashner — who has admittedly has had some homer issues this year — is home in San Diego, which will be the third-coldest park today, with the bonus of having the wind blowing in tonight. Oh and by using him, you pocket a cool $4,700 from the most expensive pitcher of the day. Cashner may not be as great as his fastball suggests he should be, but he’s also a decent pitcher in a good situation going up against a bad offensive team. 

Joey Votto ($4,500 at Colorado) Right now, Eddie Butler does not have good command. And you know about Joey Votto, meaning something like three walks is your floor on the day. Add in the platoon advantage, and the Coors Field effect, and Votto looks like he’s in line for a good day.

RAY MURPHY

Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox) With a leg up on a golden ticket entering tonight, I’ll be playing this lineup as a cash game. I’m giving a slight edge to Kluber over Scherzer as the day’s top play, since a) Kluber’s a little cheaper, and b) while both are likely to go deep into the game, I don’t have to worry about Kluber getting pulled an inning or two early for a PH. In a possible low-scoring affair in Pittsburgh, that’s a bit of a risk for Scherzer.

Joey Votto ($4,500 at Colorado) Votto is an OBP machine, going to Coors Field to face an RHP who has more allowed more BB than K on the year? I’d pay almost anything for Votto in that spot. $4500 is a bargain.

MICHAEL BELLER

If you want an ace, you aren’t short for options this week. There are arguments to be made on behalf of Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez, but I’m riding with Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox). I’ll take some savings from the top two options on the board and go with Kluber and his strikeout ways against the disappointing White Sox’ offense.

Todd Frazier ($4,900 at Colorado) against Eddie Butler in Coors Field. I don’t need to say anything else, right?

LAWR MICHAELS

I am going Jose Quintana ($8,200 at Cleveland) as an arm, since I am 40 points down and can afford to gamble, but I like Quintana’s strikeout numbers, he is pitching at home, and Cleveland is up-and-down.

As for a stick, switch hitter Mark Teixeira ($3,900 at Minnesota) against gopher baller Tommy Milone seems like a fun choice to me, although that game, with Millone facing C.C. Sabathia at Target in what portends to be a swinging affair (of course, that means the final score will be 4-3 and all my picks will give me “oh-fers” instead of gophers.

ADAM RONIS

Chris Archer ($10,600 vs. Baltimore) 

David Ortiz ($3,300 vs. Detroit) 

DAVID GONOS

Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox)

Joey Votto ($4,500 at Colorado)

SCOTT SWANAY

Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox)  I wasn’t wild about any of the pitching match-ups tonight, but this seems like the best choice of the lot.  He’ll get a fair number of Ks, the White Sox offense doesn’t scare anyone (now that I’ve said that, Jose Abreu will inevitably slug five home runs tonight), and Jose Quintana hasn’t been as good a pitcher on the road as he had been at home.

Marlon Byrd ($3,100 at Colorado)  He’s one of the least expensive options for getting in on the action for the Reds-Rockies game at Coors Field, which has the potential to be a slugfest given both the venue and the two starting pitchers (Butler and DeSclafani). 

STEVE MOYER

Jon Lester ($9,600 vs. Philadelphia –early games only) Inside Edge predicts no pitcher to wow tonight, but Lester’s the best against the “hot” Phillies, so you’ve gotta get that lineup in before 4. (Scherzer is middle of the pack – veddy interesting.) 

Joey Votto ($4,500 at Colorado) He’s en fuego and expensive and at Coors tonight, but IE says he’s worth it. Make up your own joke about “the Butler.”

 PAUL SPORER

Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox) We’ve got an ace day so there are options w/Max, Felix, Archer, and Kluber. Kluber’s 5-10 record is pretty lame, but it’s certainly not an indication of his pitching. His skills are almost identical to last year’s Cy Young campaign. He’s particularly toasty of late, too: 2.65 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 42 Ks in 37.3 IP (plus a 6.0 K:BB ratio). The White Sox have been very disappointing offensively after some high expectations coming into the season. They are 28th in wRC+ against righties this year. 

Charlie Blackmon ($4,800 vs. Cincinnati) Another high-dollar selection here, but sometimes the more obvious answer is in fact the right one. DeSclafani started the year horribly against lefties and while he has improved recently, he still a sharp split and now he’s in Coors against a righty-destroyer like Blackmon w/his .897 OPS against them for the year and .941 OPS against righties in Coors. 

TOP PICKS

Corey Kluber ($11,000 vs. Chicago White Sox)

Joey Votto ($4,500 at Colorado)

Tout Daily by FanDuel Week 15 Results! Murphy’s Law Rules.

murphyRay Murphy rostered Lance Lynn, the week’s most productive pitcher, in this week’s Tout Daily by FanDuel, which proved to be most of the margin of victory.

That’s because on the hitting side, Tom Kessenich and Jeff Boggi$ (the preferred spelling whenever Jeff finishes in the money), the second and third place finishers, similarly to Murphy rostered two of the day’s big sticks, Kyle Seager and Hunter Pence. They fell short, however, by the difference between Lynn and their shared pitcher, Jose Fernandez, who pitched decently but did not beat the Phillies.

Fourth-place finisher Rick Wolf had Lynn on his team. He also had Jose Iglesias’s huge day, but lacked a strong second bat.

Screenshot 2015-07-18 09.06.18With his Phase 4 Week 3 victory, Murphy moves into the lead for the Phase by 10 points, ahead of Charlie Wiegert and Brian Walton. The latter is the only team to finish in the Top 10 all three weeks of Phase 4. The top three teams in the Phase will win tickets to the August 28 finals, when 15 ticket holders will vie for $2,000 in winnings.

Two Top 10 teams for the Phase are already ticket holders. Jeff Boggis and Michael Beller are 11 and 16 points respectively out of the Top 3. Players may win two tickets to the finals.

Phase Four finishes up next Friday, July 24th.

See the whole leaderboard here. Read more about Tout Daily. Visit FanGraphs.

Tout Daily at FanDuel Picks for Phase 4 Week 3!

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We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 15 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 3 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Going into this Week Charlie Wiegert has a big lead, with Gene McCaffrey, Brian Walton, Seth Trachtman, Ray Murphy and Todd Zola and many others all in the fight.

The leaderboard is here. Only one of the current Phase Top 10 have a ticket to the finals.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Boggis have tickets to the finals already.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

THE GODFATHER OF FANTASY SPORTS (And current Phase Leader) CHARLIE WIEGERT

Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia).  Paying the price to get pitching points.  He appears to be the safest option, with the only thing against him is a “road” start.  But it is against ​the lowly Phillies, and he should be able to continue his dominating performances since his recent activation.
Jorge Soler ($2,500 at Atlanta) I’m looking for a few of Fernandez’s team mates to provide some offensive support and Houston hitters (Altuve & Gattis) to spoil Martin Perez’s 2105 debut.  Jorge Soler, who has hit in 6 of 8 games since coming off the dl, becomes a value pick.

PHIL HERTZ

Trevor Bauer ($8,700  at Cincinnati) has been solid in four of his last five starts.
Curtis Granderson ($3,000 at St. Louis) has an .845 OPS against righties. Both are relevant bargains.

ADAM RONIS

Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia) 
Justin Upton ($2,700 vs Colorado)

DAVID GONOS

James Shields ($9,200 vs. Colorado)
Adeiny Hechavarria ($2,300 at Philadelphia)

LAWR MICHAELS

Lance Lynn ($9,300 vs. NY Mets)
Chris Carter ($3,000 vs. Texas)

ENO SARRIS

Trevor Bauer ($8,700  at Cincinnati) He’s cheap, and he’s up against a team that’s bad right now. I could tell you that the Reds are in the bottom fifth of the league over the last thirty days, and that Bauer is facing a National League lineup and has really cut down the walks in his last three starts — 17 strikeouts against two walks in 21.1 innings — but that’s not why I like Bauer most. I like him most because I think he’s a good pitcher and he’ll cost me $1-2k less than the other good pitchers.
Prince Fielder ($3,400 at Houston) This is just part of my mini-stack today: Fielder and Rougned Odor both are facing a righty with home run problems in a hot park with the wind blowing out. I’ll even take righty Adrian Beltre in that situation, and since it’s the hottest game on the schedule, Carlos Correa against a lefty coming back from injury the other way. This game should produce runs.

PAUL SPORER

Julio Teheran ($8200 vs. Chicago Cubs) Teheran is a disappointment this season because of his 4.56 ERA, but hidden in there is a bout of home dominance. He has a 2.04 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 2.9 K:BB ratio in 53 home IP. He needs to make sure Anthony Rizzo doesn’t beat him. Lefties have been a big issue this year (.859 OPS).

Gerardo Parra ($3,400 vs. Pittsburgh) He’s been a hot DFS pick of late and he should be again today as he is just smashing righties this year with a .313/.345/.498 line. He doesn’t usually do much vs. lefties, but his .829 OPS in 50 PA vs. them this year might even protect us for a PA against a lefty reliever late in the game, but even if he is pulled late or this small sample of good work vs. lefties isn’t skills growth, he’s still worth his price tag.

STEVE MOYER’S INSIDE EDGE

Kyle Hendricks ($7,300 at Atlanta) Inside Edge liked Hendricks last week and it likes him again this week. He’s been fantastic his last three starts, so hopefully that cheapo FanDuel salary doesn’t know something we don’t.
John Jaso ($3000 at Toronto) Rumors of his demise were premature. Instead he’s primed to become baseball’s next .400 hitter. Just kidding. But Inside Edge says his red-hotness continues tonight against the Jays’ Drew Hutchison.

JAKE CIELY

Masahiro Tanaka ($9,700 vs Seattle) I considered Sonny Gray, but the Twins are mid-pack in K% and wRC+, so not a huge boost there. The Mariners have the fourth highest K% against righties along with the seventh lowest wOBA and wRC+. I was too concerned over a potential short outing for Tanaka last time out, and he dazzled. I’ll take the savings (albeit slight) from Gray and Jose Fernandez to plug in Tanaka.
Jose Altuve ($4,300 vs Texas) Since returning from his brief hamstring injury, Altuve is hitting .309 with 17 runs, 3 HRs, 10 RBI and eight SBs. He’s back to being Altuve. The Astros are expected to score plenty against Martin Perez tonight, and Altuve has always hit lefties much better than righties. His price isn’t too restrictive either, which is a bonus.

TODD ZOLA

Jorge De La Rosa ($6,600 at San Diego) Coors to Petco – good, Facing a team with a high whiff rate against southpaws – good. Salary of $6600 – priceless.
Adeiny Hechavarria ($2,300 at Philadelphia) Hitting third against a weak lefty and don’t look now but he has a .976 OPS vs. southpaws. At $2300, clears cap room for some outfield studs.

RAY MURPHY

Lance Lynn ($9,300 vs. NY Mets) He’s particularly strong at home, and the Mets can’t hit anywhere. Biggest risk is probably that Syndegaard matches zeroes with him, but this is still a strong play in my book.
Xander Bogaerts ($3000 at Los Angeles Angels) He’s been hot lately, although that hasn’t translated into power yet. I want to see where he is in the linuep tonight (he’s been 3rd lately, but now Pedroia is back), but facing LHP CJ Wilson makes him a nice play at this price.

BRIAN WALTON

Julio Teheran ($8200 vs. Chicago Cubs) has been the biggest disappointment of my NL Tout squad in the first half, with just six wins in 18 starts and a 4.56 ERA. However, the Braves starter is showing signs of life, having allowed just three earned runs in 14 July innings. Teheran draws the Cubs at home to start the second half Friday night. I am staying with my man and using my savings on hitting!

Miguel Sano ($2600 at Oakland) Some of the prospect luster wore off the Minnesota third baseman while he sat out last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. In the 11 games since the 22-year-old reached the bigs, however, he has reminded us all of his immense potential. Sano brings a .375 average, two home runs and eight RBI into Oakland to face Sonny Gray.

SCOTT SWANAY

Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia) Even if Clayton Kershaw were pitching tonight Fernandez would still be the better pick because he’s facing both an inferior offense (the Phlailin’ Phils) and an inferior opposing starting pitcher (Adam Morgan).  I worry a bit whether the Stanton-less, Gordon-less Marlins’ lineup will cobble together enough runs to get Fernandez the 4 vital points that go with a Win. However, with so many aces pitching the first game after the All-Star break, this still feels like the most appealing match-up.
Bryce Harper ($5,000 vs Los Angeles Dodgers) It’s hard to consider this an arbitrage opportunity at this price.  Still, the price was set assuming that Harper would be facing Clayton Kershaw; instead, he gets to face Mike Bolsinger (and he’s still cheaper than Adam Morgan!).  Of course, since I’m shelling out for Fernandez, Harper, and Mike Trout, the rest of my hitting lineup looks like a collection of has-beens and never-wases.  We’ll see what happens – it should be an interesting evening of baseball regardless of how many grand slams Kyle Schwarber hits.

JEFF BOGGIS

Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia) My strategy that has worked best for me in this contest is to draft an elite pitcher and then look for hitter values to stay within the salary cap. Kershaw was originally scheduled to pitch tonight, but has traded places with Mike Bolsinger in the Dodgers rotation. I like both Sonny Gray ($9,900) and Jose Fernandez ($10,500) tonight, but from a win probability and higher strikeout ceiling, I am going to spend the extra $600 on Jose Fernandez tonight.  If you further analyze the pitcher versus hitter matchup, current Philadelphia Phillies hitters are batting only .162 in their last 37 AB’s against Jose Fernandez. The number is slightly higher for Gray versus Minnesota hitters at .182.

Mike Trout ($5,400 vs. Boston) and Bryce Harper ($5,000 vs. LA Dodgers) Each week I have wanted to play either Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, only to have my player either hit a home run the following night or the player that I did not select hit a home run. Well, I am imposing a brand new hitter strategy tonight and it is my “build a team around Trout and Harper” strategy. This way, I feel I have at least doubled my odds of success tonight and I take the guessing out of the equation. I was going to not roster Harper tonight based on his matchup originally against Clayton Kershaw, but with Mike Bolsinger now starting tonight, Bryce Harper is back in the lineup for tonight! By rostering the law firm of Fernandez, Harper, and Trout, this leaves me with an average salary of $2,350 on my remaining 6 hitters. 

Tout Daily Phase 4 Week 2: The Touts Pick!

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We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 14 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 2 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Bogis have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

TODD ZOLA

Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) My goal is the golden ticket so I’m in conservative mode, want to stay close then decide how risky to be in the final two weeks of this period. Bumgarner is the safest arm on the board to get a base of innings and whiffs.

Derek Norris ($2,400 at Texas) Should injury concerns me but if I was likely to hit leadoff against Wandy Rodriguez in Arlington, I’d tell the Skip everything is fine.

PAUL SPORER

Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) Yes, he’s the most expensive arm out there, but sometimes the most obvious answer is the best answer. I’m not deterred at all by Philly getting him for 5 back in early-June, either. That was one bad inning and he still went 8 with 11 Ks. He has basically been a carbon copy of last year’s excellence.

Nolan Reimold – ($2200 vs. Washington) Figured I’d give a nice low-dollar bat since you need at least a couple when you spend on MadBum. Health has eluded Reimold throughout his career, but he has regularly shown the ability to handle lefties when he does play. Righties having their best success against Gio since his rookie year, too, with a .777 OPS a 131-point difference than his work v. lefties.

ENO SARRIS

Danny Salazar ($8,700 vs Oakland) The circumstances help — Salazar is pitching at home in a nice park, with the third-coldest weather of the day, and incoming winds, against a team that’s bottom half of the American League against fastballs — but this is more about Salazar’s quality with respect to his price. Here’s a pitcher who has struck out 37 batters against nine walks in his last 35.1 innings. Yeah, he gives up the home run, but the Athletics are fourth-worst in homers over the last thirty days, and only a run better for the season. This is a power pitcher that doesn’t walk many batters, going up against a less powerful team that depends on making contact and taking walks to score runs. That’s a good price for a secret ace.

Rougned Odor ($2,800 vs San Diego) The Rangers’ second baseman has been a different hitter since he came back from the minors, He’s really tightened up his swing rate against righties, which would serve him well against Ian Kennedy. In fact, Odor is part of a mini-stack on my squad, as I try to take advantage of a homer-prone righty with relatively soft stuff coming into the heat of Texas. It’s scheduled to be a whopping 91 degrees in Arlington tonight, five degrees warmer than the second-warmest park, That heat should be worth an extra eight feet of batted ball distance over, say, the game in Cleveland, where it will be 20 degrees cooler. Of course, it looks like the wind is blowing in right now, but that’s still a nice park and a nice matchup for relative values in Odor, Josh Hamilton, and even Leonys Martin (should he start).

JEFF BOGGIS

Gerrit Cole ($10,600 vs. St. Louis) My heart wants to start Madison Bumgarner tonight, but my head is starting Gerrit Cole. Cole is at a $1,300 discount tonight versus Bumgarner and I have them projected within 2 fantasy points tonight. It all comes down to their opposing pitchers. Bumgarner is facing Cole Hamels, who I believe is on showcase tonight as this could be his last game in a Phillies uniform. Case in point, on Tuesday night, Max Scherzer faced Johnny Cueto, and Cueto is also a potential showcase pitcher. Cueto pitched lights out and it would not surprise me if Hamels outpitches Bumgarner tonight. Cole faces Lance Lynn tonight and Lynn is no slouch at $9,300, but Hamels is a tougher matchup tonight. Don’t be surprised if a lot of top ranked pitchers end up with a no decision tonight. In his last night starts, Cole is 7-1 with 1

Justin Upton ($2,700 @ Texas) This is purely a value pick based on his ability, his matchup, and his salary. Anytime that I can get a player that is being discounted, I take advantage and Upton at $2,700 is a steal tonight. He has a good righty versus lefty matchup against Wandy Rodriguez. Over the past 2 season, Justin Upton has a slugging percentage of .487 against similar pitchers. He did not start in Wednesday’s game and had 2 days of rest from his oblique soreness. Just make sure he is in the starting lineup tonight and all indications is that he will be in the starting roster.

AL MELCHIOR

Erasmo Ramirez ($6,700 vs. Houston Astros) – Ramirez has been performing like a near-elite over seven starts now, with a 1.18 ERA and 14 percent whiff rate. The Astros can’t hurt his chances for Ks, and the price is phenomenal.

Brian Dozier ($4,000 vs. Detroit Tigers) – Dozier is no bargain, but he hits righties about as well as he hits lefties, and Justin Verlander is allowing an .807 OPS to right-handed hitters.

JAKE CIELY

Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke on back-to-back days? Don’t worries Phillies, now you get… what’s that? Madison Bumgarner?! Geez, sorry guys. But, I am not going to apologize for auto-picking Bumgarner for my lineup no matter the price. People can try to be contrarian, but it’s only going to bite them in the end.

Prince Fielder ($3,500 vs. San Diego)– How is he only $3,500? Ian Kennedy is giving up home runs as if it’s his goal in life, and the Rangers have one of the higher projected run totals tonight. There really isn’t much more to say here, as Fielder is a near must-start.

JEFF ERICKSON

Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) Just keeping it simple by using the best pitcher against the worst lineup in a great ballpark. I’ve had a lot of positive reinforcement going that way this week – why stop?

Mitch Moreland ($2,900 vs. San Diego) A home matchup against Ian Kennedy, is that something that you might be interested in?

DOUG ANDERSON

Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia)– There’s just nothing I can find to nitpick in this matchup. Bumgarner’s season numbers are maybe a little disappointing, but most of the damage came on the road early in the season. He had sub-3.00 ERAs in May and June. The Phillies? Hey, at least they’ve scored more runs than theWhite Sox and Mets.

Adam Jones ($3,300 vs. Washington) – Against RHP Jones
is the anti-Votto, but that OBP jumps up to .375 when he faces a left-handed pitcher. Jones used to seem like the next big thing, but he’s turned into a boringly consistent player. I like boring when it’s this good.

DAVID GONOS

AJ Pierzynski ($3,400 at Colorado) and Kendall Graveman ($5,400 at Cleveland)

GENE MCCAFFREY

Difficult night, a typical Friday. I’m going bang for the buck to get some expensive hitters in, so it’s Noah Syndergaard ($8,400 vs. Arizona) and “I Dread Jedd” Gyorko  ($2200  at Texas). Let the chips fall.

ADAM RONIS

Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) and Dee Gordon

FROM THE GODFATHER OF FANTASY SPORTS, CHARLIE WIEGERT

Hitters…loading up on the Rockies and Braves at home. 3B Nolan Arenado ($5,100 vs. Atlanta) my must have, he’s going to Hale tonight!

PETER KREUTZER

Ervin Santana ($7,600 versus Detroit) I know, crazy, but Tigers without Miggy isn’t the same offensive team. And Santana is cheap, coming off an excellent win in his first game back from suspension. I didn’t like the matchups and/or prices of the big guys, so a little bottomfishing.

Bryce Harper ($5,000 versus Baltimore) The reason to bet on Santana is to also bet on guys like Harper (Tillman) and Edwin Encarnacion (Duffy) in good matchups.

STEVE MOYER

Kyle Hendricks  ($6900 vs. Cubs) – Inside Edge says play early and take advantage of these cheapo starter against the crosstown rival Chisox.
Jedd Gyorko  ($2200  at Texas) We’ve probably all been jilted by Jedd at some point in our fantasy careers by now, but Inside Edge says he’s the top play on the board tonight. And at second base. And at $2200.

 

Tout Daily Week 13. Missed It By This Much! Getting Smarter or Getting Luckier?

patrickmayoThis is the place where we hail the week’s Tout Daily by FanDuel winner, so let’s get this out of the way. Lenny Melnick calls him a Daily Fantasy Monster, but you know him as Patrick Mayo. Last night he won Week 1 of Phase 4 of Tout Daily’s five phase contest. That puts him in the lead to win one of three tickets awarded to the top three finishers of this four-week phase, a ticket giving its holder entry into the Tout Daily finals, on August 28th, in which 15 entries compete for $2,000 in prizes (contest and prizes courtesy of FanDuel).

Well done, Patrick.

Oh, you want to know about Patrick’s team?

Like half of the active Tout Daily teams this week, Mayo’s squad was built around Clayton Kershaw. The experts loved Kershaw in Friday’s Picks Column because a lefty strikeout pitcher against the struggling Mets offense was seen as the equivalent of money in the bank.

But Kershaw’s high price ($12,300) forced his owners to make like Greece and accept austerity elsewhere, which led to Mayo’s coup de grace rostering of Grady Sizemore, Gerardo Parra, and the unintuitively inexpensive Robinson Cano, who scored a combined 20.75 points Friday night.
Screenshot 2015-07-04 08.27.18
A look at Mayo’s roster shows that despite Kershaw’s disappointing performance (one reason you pay Kershaw so much is because his disappointing game is often close to the peak performance of lesser pitchers) no single player had a negative value, and this team (click to enlarge) was the evening’s best.

Which takes us to the night’s real story: Rotoman Rising.

Rotoman, who has to admit he is writing this piece, sent dinner guests home about 10:30 pm and checked his computer to see what fresh hell was destroying his Tout Daily squad. Entering Week 13 of the weekly contests, Rotoman had yet to taste the fruits of a Top-10 finish. (One of only four teams not to score at least once going into week 13.)

Rotoman had a hard time reconciling his belief that Daily Fantasy Baseball was a game with an extremely high variance of outcomes with the fact that he himself was so consistently bad (without even making rookie mistakes, like starting players who don’t play because they’re not in the lineup or the game is rained out).

The point is, that while the better player will certainly prevail over time, the outcome on any day is highly subject to luck. How bad do you have to be to not be able to even get lucky? Rotoman asked himself, not just once.

As Rotoman’s computer flickered to life on the FanDuel Live page, memories of incredible cheese cake (thanks Kim!) fogging his mind, a remarkable thing happened. The letters said kroyte, the numbers said 45.5 (1 of 43). This outcome was so unexpected it took a moment to comprehend. This did not mean Rotoman was 45th out of 43 contestants having scored but a single point, which was similar to some other week’s results. No, this meant of all the 43 teams playing, Rotoman’s score was the best. Rotoman was winning.

And not by a little. It turns out that Rotoman was the only team playing Chris Archer, who scored 14.66 points on 6.2 IP, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Alas, no win, but not bad. This was better than the owners of Michael Wacha were getting. He struck out six in seven innings while allowing one earned run. 12 points. Ten of the 43 teams owned Wacha, and everyone Rotoman was competing with in the Top 10 was playing Wacha, who was out of the game and not going to get a win. Wow, but then it hit Rotoman, hard: Kershaw.

Two teams, sitting down in the teens, maybe 17 points behind, were playing Clayton Kershaw, whose game against the Mets was just getting underway. Rotoman has to admit he watched for a while, as Patrick Mayo’s and Ron Shandler’s and Todd Zola’s teams climbed into the Top 10 and the Mets were retired innocuously inning after inning. Rotoman hoped to see Kershaw knocked from the game, the Mets taking a lead, but that didn’t happen, and when it was clear that a Kershaw win would vault Mayo’s and Shandler’s teams above team kroyte, Rotoman went to bed.

A series of disturbing dreams haunted Rotoman. Why had he chosen Ben Zobrist over Robbie Cano, who was much cheaper? Because that would have left Rotoman with $1,000 unspent dollars. Who would he have replaced with that $1K? Maybe his big scorer for the night, Kole Calhoun. That would have been a disaster. Can you simply not spend $1,000? That’s tough.

Maybe he would have upgraded Adam Jones, whose 0-4 cost team kroyte another point. Maybe Rotoman should have downgraded Jones to Grady Sizemore, which would have given him enough money to buy Clayton Kershaw! This game is tricky.

None of which would have mattered if Kershaw won the game against the Mets, but he didn’t. One reason Rotoman didn’t go with Kershaw was because Noah Syndergaard is a pretty good starter in his own right, and in fact Syndergaard shut the Dodgers down as hard as Kershaw was silencing the Mets. Which left the door open for Rotoman, but he didn’t know this as he slept, he merely dreamed it. Over and over and over again.

Alas, in the gray rainy morning light, Patrick Mayo’s team (which you’ve heard about already) took first place and $60 (thanks to a 10th inning Welington Castillo double and run scored). It was the broad support of his offense that made the well-earned difference. Rotoman settled for second and $48. Ron Shandler finished third and another money virgin of Tout Daily, Todd Zola, finished fifth, right behind the Godfather of fantasy baseball, Charlie Wiegert.

Notably, only one of the top 10 finishers in Phase 4 Week 1 has a ticket to the finals already. That would be Phase 3 champ Michael Beller. It is fun to still be competing as we prepare for Phase 4 Week 2 for this Golden Ticket (created by Jeff Boggis, who has a real one):

pk-golden ticket from Boggis

You can see the leaderboard here.

Which part of one-day games of fantasy baseball do you cherish? The fresh hell of defeat or the surprising richness of everything falling into place? Play against Rotoman and many other Touts in Tuesday’s Tout Challenge contest. Bet $2 and merely finish in the top half of the standings to win $4. Look for the #toutchallenge on Twitter this coming Tuesday.

The Touts Pick for Tout Daily Week 13! A New Phase…

598x60-tout-wars

We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 13 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 1 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Bogis have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

JAKE CIELY’S Picks

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) His price could be $13,200, heck, it could be $15,300 and I’d still use Kershaw. There is no such thing as contrarian when it comes to Kershaw versus the Mets. The only question is whether Kershaw will through a perfect game or just a regular ol’ no hitter. The last time the Mets scored twice was in May… or it just feels that way. In reality, they have averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their last 14 with a .180 batting average and scored just one runs on 15 hits in a 3-game series against the Cubs. Just put Kershaw in your lineup and figure out the rest later.

Kole Calhoun ($2,300–Los Angeles Angels at Texas)  Finally, The Rock has come… wait, sorry, I got caught up in it. Finally, Chi Chi Gonzalez saw the clock hit midnight after we kept waiting for him to regress. Over his last two starts, Gonzalez is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. We have to find value with Kershaw being so expensive, and Calhoun is a terrific play. He only costs $2,300, and Vegas gives this game a 9 O/U with the Angels money line being -125.

DOUG ANDERSON OPINES

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) First of all, it’s Clayton Kershaw. Then there’s the fact that only three teams have scored fewer runs than the Mets. Kershaw is opposed by Noah Syndergaard, who’s been inconsistent as you might expect from a young pitcher. If you can build a respectable lineup with Kershaw, you roll with it.

Steve Pearce ($2,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) Yes, this is about Danks, but it’s also about Pearce and lefties. Over the last five years, Pearce has scored 6.561 FanDuel points for every 10 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That puts him in Albert Pujols and Carlos Gomez territory.

THE GODFATHER OF FANTASY SPORTS, CHARLIE WIEGERT

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) I’m going to break rule number 1 tonight; I’m taking Cardinal pitcher Wacha because I’m going to the game and want someone to root for!  Wacha has the stuff that any game can be double digit strike outs, and the Redbirds need to get back on a winning track.  Hopefully they bust out tonight.  

David Ortiz ($2,900–Houston at Boston) The Red Sox and Astros looks like a slugfest in Fenway so I’m loading up. David Ortiz  has been hot, so he’s my pick to click tonight.

GENE McCAFFREY SAYS

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers)  It’s possible to go against Kershaw and win, but with good cheap hitter options why get cute?

Nolan Reimold ($2,200–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox)  Take Nolan Reimold, among others, and reap.

JEFF BOGGIS CONCLUDES

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) The allure of rostering Clayton Kershaw is enticing, but the $12,300 salary can’t be justified tonight. I was a top tier starting pitcher, but at a fraction of Kershaw’s salary. That is why I am rostering Michael Wacha tonight at home against the San Diego Padres. San Diego is one of the weaker offenses against right handed pitchers this season and the matchup for Wacha is at home tonight. By rostering Wacha, I save $3,700, leaving me an average of $3,300 to spend per hitter versus $2,837.50 to spend per hitter if I rostered Kershaw.

Manny Machado ($4,200—Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) By rostering Wacha versus Kershaw tonight, I have more flexibility to spend my remaining dollars on an elite hitter. I like both Macado and Nolan Arenado tonight, but Arenado’s salary is $700 higher at $4,900. Since rostering Arenado last week with his 2 home run game last Friday night, Arenado has only averaged 0.18 fantasy points in his last 4 games on FanDuel. Over the past 6 games, Machado has averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game on FanDuel.

RAY MURPHY’S RULE

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) Week 1 of a new phase is no time to get cute or over-think the pitching choice. Kershaw, at home, against a struggling Mets lineup that skews left-handed, is as good as 15 or more points in the bank.

Adam Lind ($4,000–Milwaukee at Cincinnati) Opposing RHP Michael Lorenzen has had big trouble with LHP (970 OPS against), making this an optimal spot for Lind in GABP. Rostering Kershaw means going low-budget on some hitters, but generally not at first base.

BRIAN WALTON BREAKS HIS SLUMP PICKING AGAINST KERSHAW vs. The Mets.

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) Like Kershaw, he also draws a below-average offense in San Diego at home Friday night. After his hot start cooled a bit, the 24-year-old is no longer among top NL Cy Young Award candidates, but has the advantage of coming off an extra day’s rest between starts. 

Yasmany Tomas ($3300–Colorado at Arizona) For those looking for a value play. The Cuban is heating up over his last four games with six hits in 17 at-bats (.353), including a home run and four RBI. Colorado starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick lugs his 6.07 ERA to the mound against the Snakes Friday. Need I say more?

SCOTT PIANOWSKI DESCRIBES

Julio Teheran. ($8,000–Philadelphia at Atlanta) Completely different pitcher at home, and the draw is lovely. 

Alejandro De Aza ($3,100–Houston at Boston) The Red Sox finally have offense in right field. Alejandro De Aza can hit righties, and for all the Boston problems, the offense has woken up nicely. 

LAWR MICHEALS PREDICTS

Ubaldo Jimenez ($8,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) Since I qualify for the tourney, I have a little latitude. That said I am still looking at emulating Adam and his double ticket, and Ubaldo has been hot (3-0, 2.75, 23 whiffs over 19.3 innings his last three starts) and I am happy to gamble with him against an erratic hitting White Sox team.

Joe Mauer ($2,600–Minnesota at Kansas City) How did Mauer fall so far off the map? He is just hitting .267-3-30, and his OBP is .337, a far cry for a former batting champ. Still, a lefty hitter against Jeremy Guthrie (5.68 ERA, just 43 whiffs over 81 frames) is too tasty to leave on the table.f

TODD ZOLA’S VERDICT

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) Lock, load it. move on.

Nolan Reimold ($2,200–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox)– Hitting second versus John Danks in the Cell? Yes, please.

PAUL SPORER SAYS, Tough day, today.

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) The results have been there all year, but early on (thru first 6) the Ks were lagging. They’ve been in place over his last 9 starts with 55 Ks in 55.7 IP. Meanwhile, SD is doing a great job imitating their 2014 offense which isn’t good for anyone involved… well, except for opposing pitchers. 

David Peralta ($3900–Colorado at Arizona) He’s no longer the dirt-cheap option he was to start the year, but he continues to rake righties, especially at home, and so even as a higher-level option, he is still worth rostering. 

SCOTT SWANAY SAYS, Happy Fourth of July!

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) Sure, he’s the most expensive pitcher by far, but the Mets don’t score many runs, strike out fairly often, and have a low team OPS.  In other words, Kershaw’s got a realistic shot at putting up 20 FanDuel points tonight.  It was tempting to go with Chris Archer and save $1,700, but the Yankees’ offense is considerably more formidable than the Mets’, and Dodger Stadium is a more favorable pitching environment than Yankee Stadium.

Kole Calhoun ($2,300–Los Angeles Angels at Texas) He may be in the midst of a “disappointing” season, but $2,300 seems like a bargain considering that he gets to face the mercurial Justin Masterson in Fenway Park.

AL MELCHIOR’S HOLIDAY HOT DOGS!

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) He’s Clayton Kershaw; they’re the Mets. That should be reason enough, but then there’s this. His last seven starts have produced a 1.85 ERA, 67 Ks and nine walks.
Lorenzo Cain ($3300–Minnesota at Kansas City)  Cain is getting on base against lefties at a .420 clip. If he reaches against Tommy Milone and Kurt Suzuki (40 steals allowed in 51 attempts) is catching, I like Cain’s chances to swipe a bag or two.

Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) 7  (13)
Julio Teheran. ($8,000–Philadelphia at Atlanta) 2 (15)
Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) 4 (12)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($8,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) (10)
Chris Archer ($10,600–Tampa Bay at New York Yankees) (14.66)
Jesse Chavez ($8,700–Seattle at Oakland) (6.33)
THE BEST BUY: Julio Teheran–15 points for $8,000
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points
Kole Calhoun ($2,300–Los Angeles Angels at Texas) 2 (8.25)
Neil Walker ($3,200–Cleveland at Pittsburgh) (1.25)
Steve Pearce ($2,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) (.5)
David Ortiz ($2,900–Houston at Boston) 2 (7.75)
Nolan Reimold ($2,200–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) 2 (.5)
Mookie Betts ($3,700–Houston at Boston) (2)
Manny Machado ($4,200—Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) (.25)
Adam Lind ($4,000–Milwaukee at Cincinnati) (2)
Yasmany Tomas ($3300–Colorado at Arizona) (-1.25)
Alejandro De Aza ($3,100–Houston at Boston) (2)
Joe Mauer ($2,600–Minnesota at Kansas City) (.25)
Stephen Vogt ($3,400–Seattle at Oakland) (.25)
David Peralta ($3900–Colorado at Arizona) (2)
Lorenzo Cain ($3300–Minnesota at Kansas City) (9.75)
BEST BUY: Kole Calhoun–8.25 points for $2,300.
Voters without comments include Adam Ronis, Phil Hertz, Rotoman, David Gonos,