Mike Gianella’s FAAB report at Baseball Prospectus is up and it’s good! This week he adds TW mixed bids to his LABR mixed report, and LABR AL and NL bids to his Tout Wars Onlies reports. Very interesting. Read it here.
Learned that Mastersball’s FAAB report was posted (here) with this tweet:
The stat service Tout Wars uses has a Toy Box, a place league member can go to mess around with different data. Like, whose team was the best over the past two weeks? Five weeks? Two and a half months.
It also allows you to create projected standings based on Clay Davenport’s and BaseballHQ’s projections and current rosters.
Tout Mixed Draft drafted last night, and here are the projected standings (click to enlarge):
Clay Davenport’s projections, good for Wilton, bad for Murphy:
While BaseballHQ’s projections have a different look, especially for Murphy:
Who has been the most successful Tout Wars owner the last five years? Fred Zinkie.
Who has been the most successful Tout Wars owner the last ten years? Larry Schechter.
Who are the all time top 10 earners in Tout?
| TOUT WARS LEADER BOARD | Years | AVG $ p/yr | All Time P/L |
| Larry Schechter | 11 | $256 | $2,820 |
| Fred Zinkie | 5 | $461 | $2,306 |
| Mike Lombardo | 5 | $316 | $1,579 |
| Tristan Cockcroft | 9 | $164 | $1,473 |
| Jason Grey | 11 | $125 | $1,380 |
| Ron Shandler | 18 | $53 | $946 |
| John Coleman | 5 | $170 | $849 |
| Sam Walker | 6 | $140 | $840 |
| Trace Wood | 6 | $140 | $840 |
| Chris Liss | 7 | $115 | $804 |
You can find all this info and more in the Tout Wars Leaderboard, which has now been updated to include the 2015 finishes.
How is the Leaderboard calculated? Each team is attributed a $100 entry fee into the league. The winnings for each league are distributed to the top one third of the teams in the league, based on a proportional formula.
With a month left in the season we’ve crowned one Tout Wars Champion for 2015: Charlie Wiegert is Tout Wars Daily champion. But what about the other leagues? While you can alway check in on the standings and transactions by using the links in the right nav at toutwars.com, at this point it might be a good time to check in on the pennant races.
Chris Liss is having a classic Liss season, young pitching, lots of hitting, lots of risk, and is seven points ahead of Jeff Erickson and nine points ahead of Mike Podhorzer. The three have bubbled up and down around the top of the standings all season, but Liss has benefited from Chris Davis’s spectacular season, and Carlos Correa’s emergence after being called up earlier in the year. There are plenty of points in play for all three teams, up and down, for this to turn any which way at any time, but Liss is clearly the fave.
Mike Gianella is seven points ahead of standing three-time champ Tristan Cockcroft, but just two weeks ago his edge was only two points. For Cockcroft, the problem has been a freefalling pitching staff, which has won just a single game in the last 13 days, allowing Gianella to pass him. These teams have lots of points in play, too, so while you have to prefer to have the lead, there is no sitting comfortably at this point. Still, Gianella has to appreciate that he was the best team in the first half and has been the best team in the second half. Now he just has to bring it home.
At the halfway mark on the season Zach Steinhorn had a commanding lead, but that was before Fred Zinkie went to work. Zinkie was in 12th place on June 28, 39.5 points behind Steinhorn. From that point to the August 31 trading deadline he made 19 trades, and has taken a slim lead ahead of Scott Swanay and Steinhorn. Swanay was in 10th place on June 28th, and has nearly matched Zinkie in the second half. Meanwhile, Tim Heaney is just five points behind Zinkie, in fourth place. There’s a lot of pennant race to come in this one.
Adam Ronis and Paul Greco have been near the top of the standings all year long, but their weak second half performances have given Rudy Gamble a chance to open up some space ahead of them and Eno Sarris (whose had the best second half of them all). Gambles position is pretty strong, but he’s vulnerable in Wins and the pitching qualitatives,
Bret Sayre entered the last four-week contest 14.5 points ahead of Patrick Mayo and 31 points ahead of Doug Anderson. As we approach the halfway point, Sayre is 15 points behind Mayo, who has moved into a tiny lead. What looked like it might be a blowout has ended up a a nail-biter, if you’re Sayre and Mayo.
It was supposed to be a glorious night for the pitchers. Five had a cost of $10,000 or more, paced by the uberarm of Clayton Kershaw, and even the rooks, like Daniel Norris and Aaron Nola, came with pedigree. But things didn’t work out quite as expected.
The pitchers were fine overall. Scoring was down for the week. The winning score, Al Melchior’s 47.16, would have finished 20th the week before. But apart from Lance Lynn, the golden arms didn’t win their games. And so eight different pitchers finished in the Top 10, representing 77 percent of the week’s starters. And only one Top 10 team had Lynn. It was up to the hitters to make some noise.
Al Melchior’s made the most. They overcame a mediocre start from Andrew Heaney, who went 5.2 innings and allowed four earned runs, ending up with only 3.66 points. But the hitters shone across the board. Brian Dozier, Welington Castillo, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Harper, Lorenzo Cain and Michael Brantley all scored more than five points. Here’s how Al did it (click to enlarge).
Patrick Davitt finished second on the week, behind a nice (but unwinning) game from James Shields, a big night for Mike Trout, and solid performances from Mark Teixeira, Michael Brantley, and Xander Bogaerts.
Paul Sporer took third, with a nice (but unwinning) game from Jacob deGrom, and solid hitting from Jonathan Schoop, Eddie Rosario, JD Martinez, and Lorenzo Cain.
Sporer was the only Top 10 finisher in week one to finish in the Top 10 in week two of Phase 5, and thus finds himself atop a crowded field vying for the final three tickets to the August 28th final.
The top three finishers in each four week phase of Tout Daily receive tickets to the final, which will see $2,000 distributed among the top five finishers, including a $1,000 first prize, by FanDuel, the contest’s sponsor. The winner will also be crowned the first Tout Wars Daily champion.
You can find the leaderboard here.
Touts with tickets already are Jeff Boggis, Lenny Melnick, Scott Engel, Michael Beller, Jeff Erickson, Ray Murphy, Tom Kessenich, Adam Ronis (has two tickets), Charlie Wiegert, Scott Pianowski and Lawr Michaels.
Last week Scott Engel put together a late charge and finished second in Phase 4 of the Tout Daily contest. Engel built that team around a surprise starter for the Dodgers, Ian Thomas, who cost only $4,100, but wasn’t expected to last five innings. When he did, and earned the win, Engel’s team of hitting stars jumped up the standings and earned a ticket to the $2,000 finals on August 28th.
Engel’s approach this week was far more traditional, but the results were similar.
He got big nights out of Michael Wacha, owned by more than 25 percent of the active teams, and Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Andrew McCutchen, each owned by more than one in five teams. His one somewhat surprising hit was Jung-ho Kang, owned by about 10 percent of team.
Second place finisher Jeff Boggis, also a finals ticket holder, made a late pivot to Zack Greinke (one of just two teams to do so after Clayton Kershaw scratched because of ongoing glute and hip issues), which paid off nicely. He also scored on an Orioles stack, with Manny Machado and Adam Jones coming up big, and he had big games too from Jhonny Peralta and Anthony Rizzo.
Peter Kreutzer, for the second Phase in a row, scored big in Week 1, behind an excellent start from Danny Salazar (owned by more than a third of teams in the contest), and hitting from Manny Machado (did everyone have him?), Nelson Cruz and Anthony Rizzo. Shortly before game time Kreutzer shifted from Wacha and Adam Jones to Danny Salazar and Brandon Moss. That was the difference between first and third place this week.
Only four of the Top 10 teams in Week 1 of Phase 5 do not already have tickets to the August 28th finals (Kreutzer, Zola, Heaney and Sporer). Only one team has two tickets (the max) already to the finals (that would be Adam Ronis).
The contest Leaderboard can be found here, with the week by week totals.
More about Tout Daily can be found here.
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 17 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 1 of Phase 5 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Last week Ray Murphy, Scott Engel and Charlie Wiegert won tickets to the final.
This week, everyone starts off even again. The leaderboard is here.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller, Jeff Boggis, Ray Murphy, Scott Engel, and Charlie Wiegert have tickets to the finals already. Everyone but Adam Ronis is eligible to add a ticket in the final phase (two tickets maximum to the finals).
But there are weekly cash prizes, too, so you can bet Ronis will be playing.
Here are this week’s picks!
Adam Jones ($2,900 vs Detroit) and Manny Machado ($3,700 vs Detroit) My weekly start both Bryce Harper and Mike Trout approach is being put on hold for this week. Trout is facing Clayton Kershaw on the road tonight and since I am starting Kershaw, which would be limit my upside. Bryce Harper faces The Dark Knight, who owns Harper in head to head matchups. Harper is 0 for 14 with 7 strikeouts against Matt Harvey. (Yes, you read that correctly). So my plan B for tonight is to stack both Adam Jones and Manny Machado against one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Buck Farmer is replacing Shane Greene in the rotation tonight. In 13 IP this season, Farmer owns a 9.22 ERA and has given up 22 hits. That’s almost an average of 2 hits per every inning pitched.
David Buchanan ($5,100 vs Atlanta) The second-ranked pitcher on the Inside Edge board tonight is quite a shocker. Go big or go home, I guess. You’ll be able to afford plenty of Chris Davis’s at this pitcher price.
Danny Salazar ($8,800 at Oakland) it was a toss-up for me between Salazar and Michael Wacha, but decided to go with Salazar because he faces a weaker-hitting opponent and an opposing starting pitcher (Kendall Graveman) who won’t be winning the Cy Young Award anytime soon.
Danny Salazar ($8,800 at Oakland)
Clayton Kershaw ($13,300 vs LA Angels) This isn’t quite as obvious as Kershaw vs the Mets, but it’s still worth the effort to squeeze his price in, especially when I’m uncomfortable with the other top options. My second choice for tournaments is Danny Salazar, and I’d dip all the way down to David Phelps as my third choice.
Nelson Cruz ($4,200 at Minnesota) Target Field is a hitter’s ballpark this year, especially for right-handed bats, the wind has blown out lately, and lefty Tom Milone is on the mound.
Danny Salazar ($8,800 at Oakland) I’m not sure if it’s a good idea to backup my AL only guy with a DFS play, but the matchup and the strikeouts look good. Could be a good night or a bad one, if you know what I mean.
Brandon Moss ($2,500 vs Colorado) He’s been ice cold and at some point that has to change, right?
…but Scott Engel’s big week lands him a ticket to the finals!
Engel’s 51.25 points for the week, good enough for second place on the week, leapt him from 13th to second place overall for Phase 4 of the Tout Daily contest, a ticket to the August 28th finals where 15 rosters will compete for $2,000, and designation as Tout Wars Daily Champion of 2015.
But for the week Engel finished second, behind Eno Sarris, whose team jumped from 25th to fourth with a 53 point week. Sarris’s team featured a strong pitching performance by Andrew Cashner (15 points, owned by three teams), and solid hitting from Joey Votto, Ian Desmond, and Charlie Blackmon, all popular choices, and Carlos Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig, both owned by three teams.
Sarris’s team (click to enlarge):
Engel’s team was built around Ian Thomas, the Dodger reliever who wasn’t supposed to last five innings but did (earning a win), and cost just $4,200. Engel was Thomas’s only owner. Engel used his savings to also roster Votto, Desmond and Blackmon, and then added the pricey and productive Todd Frazier and Mike Trout.
Twelve of the 15 tickets have now been awarded to (ordered by total points in the four phases): Lenny Melnick, Scott Pianowski, Adam Ronis (two tickets!), Michael Beller, Ray Murphy, Scott Engel, Jeff Boggis, Charlie Wiegert, Lawr Michaels, Jeff Erickson and Tom Kessenich. Kessenich did not play in Phase 1, suppressing his total.
The highest scorer yet to earn a ticket is Seth Trachtman, who has topped 150 points twice and is fifth overall, but is not yet in the finals.
Trachtman and the rest of the Touts will start the fifth and final phase in the July 31 Tout Daily contest by Fanduel.
See the complete Leaderboard here.
Scott Engle’s Phase 4 Week 4 team (click to enlarge):
