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You Gotta Doubt! Most selected Doubt Wars players

Doubt Wars takes the temperature of Tout Wars. A look at the most selected players shows which players thought Tout Wars undervalued most. The listed Doubt Wars price is $1 more than the Tout Owner paid.

National League of Doubt (39 DW Teams)

1. Mike Olt, $6 (20 DW owners)
2. Rex Brothers, $7 (19)
3. Chris Owings, $8 (16)
4. Jenry Mejia, $2 (15)
5. Dillon Gee, $5 (14)
5. Junior Lake, $9 (14)
5. Mike Morse, $7 (14)
5. Peter Bourjos, $7 (14)
9. Jim Henderson, $12 (13)
9. Mark Trumbo, $23 (13)

Other players that at least 10 Doubt owners selected were Dee Gordon ($8), Alex Wood ($10), Travis D’Arnaud ($10), Ervin Santana ($9), AJ Pollock ($10), Dan Uggla ($9), Scooter Gennett ($4) and Starlin Castro ($16).

The 39 DW Team had 897 roster slots, and rostered 220 different players. (25 percent)

American League of Doubt (34 DW Teams)

1. Grady Sizemore, $7 (13 DW owners)
1. Mike Moustakas, $11 (13)
3. Jose Altuve, $19 (12)
4. Alejandro De Aza, $11 (11)
4. Yordano Ventura, $10 (11)
6. Aaron Hicks, $3 (10)
6. Asdrubal Cabrera, $14 (10)
6. Erasmo Ramirez, $4 (10)
6. Felix Hernandez, $26 (10)
6. Jose Quintana, $7 (10)
6. Michael Pineda, $5 (10)
6. Sergio Santos, $5 (10)

Other players that at least 9 Doubt AL owners selected were Jesse Crain ($2), Adam Eaton ($16), Billy Butler ($21), Dustin Ackley ($9), Ivan Nova ($9) and Mike Zunino ($5).

A total of 232 different players were taken by AL Doubters to fill 782 roster slots. (29 percent)

Mixed League of Doubt (49 DW Teams)

1. Trevor Rosenthal, $17 (20 DW owners)
2. Justin Verlander, $21 (17)
3. Corey Kluber, $7 (13)
4. David Ortiz, $18 (12)
4. Nolan Arenado, $8 (12)
4. Yan Gomes, $7 (12)
7. Cole Hamels, $10 (11)
7. Chris Archer, $6 (11)
7. Jason Heyward, $21 (11)
7. Yordano Ventura, $7 (11)

Other players that 10 Doubt Mixed owners chose were Billy Butler ($12), Dee Gordon ($1), Khris Davis ($8), Victor Martinez ($6), and Will Venable ($5).

A total of 312 different players were taken by Mixed Doubters to fill 1127 different roster slots. (27 percent)

Conclusion

Was Mike Olt was the most underpriced player in Tout Wars this year? Or is he the player who elicits the most divisive range of opinions? Or are both things true?

I’m not sure there’s a clear answer to that sort of question, but these lists do seem to be populated by players of whom there is disagreement. Â Players to consider more closely before making up your mind.

TOUT Mortems: How Do They Like Their Drafts 2014?

The Tout Wars auctions are in the books. The lobby of SiriusXM once again looks like a sophisticated and refined business space, rather than a Phi Epsilon Tout frat basement. (But what happened to the Keith Richards and Paul McCartney autographs on the wall?) All the partygoers made it home from Foleys safely, though there were close calls. And some people are writing about their teams.

The spreadsheet with all results is here.

NL: GardnerÂ KreutzerÂ GianellaÂ ZolaÂ Hertz || RotoAdvice

AL: Jason ColletteÂ PodhorzerÂ EricksonÂ Leibowitz MichaelsÂ BehrensÂ Erickson and LissÂ Shandler || RotoAdvice

MIXED AUCTION: Swanay Gonos 1 Guilfoyle FlowersÂ SingmanÂ HeaneyÂ ZinkieÂ SteinhornÂ DavittÂ Gonos 2|| Michaels

MIXED DRAFT: Van HookÂ MinnixÂ SporerÂ RonisÂ Murphy

The Baseball Prospectus Flags Fly Forever podcast Episode 12 has extended Tout Wars discussionÂ about NL, AL and Mixed Auction, featuring Bret Sayre, Mike Gianella and Mauricio Rubio.

You can hear of more by following #toutwars on Twitter.

I Like My Draft! Notes from the TW Mixed Draft 2014.

I woke up the day after the TW Mixed Draft to a curious email. It was addressed to me and said that my team had won the draft because my team had taken Mike Trout (duh) with the first pick in the previous night’s draft. Okay.

The issue was I was the live blogger, not a participant, but then I realized that in order to observe the draft I made myself a coowner of Tom Kessenich’s team. Tom had the first pick by virtue of having finished second in the league’s inaugural season and last year’s champ, Mike Podhorzer, moving to play in one of the only leagues this year.

So, I read on. CBSsports, who hosted the draft, went on to say:

Draft Recap

Thanks to players like Mike Trout, Tom Kessenich are the team to beat

It’s a long way to October, but you have won the first round, winding up with the top ranked draft. Your squad, led by Mike Trout, are projected to wind up with 96 category points. That’s 39 more points than Ray Murphy are projected to come up with. Coach Murphy will have all year to prove us wrong, but for now, Ray Murphy are slated to finish in last place.

Another team that will have some struggles is Tim McLeod, who have the worst infielders in the league. Coach Mcleod will have to trot out Corey Hart, Howie Kendrick, and Cody Asche into the starting lineup. Perry Van Hook, meanwhile, are the class of the league in that area, with infielders Miguel Cabrera, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Altuve.

Your strength is mainly in your pitchers, who project out to be the 2nd best in the league. That outstanding group is the reason why you are expected to wind up in 3rd place in the wins category.

Turning to individual picks, we tapped charlie wiegert as having made the best pickup with Robinson Cano in the 18th slot. He was projected to be off the board a full 11 picks earlier. On the other hand, Ray Murphy made the worst move of the draft. Coach Murphy selected Shin-Soo Choo with the 20th pick, which we pegged as a serious reach.

Your best pick up of the draft was Max Scherzer, who was expected to have been selected in the 24th slot, but who you got with pick #30. However, you mixed in some (minor) duds as well, the worst of whom was Zack Greinke, taken 12 spots ahead of what his average draft position suggests.

Paragraphs in italics are unique to your version of your league’s Draft Recap.

Now let’s return to some more human commentary.

Perry Van Hook’s draft review runs at Mastersball. He makes an astute point about reserve and DL list use in Tout, and lists the rookies taken and when they went.

Nick Minnix writes about forgetting that Tout Wars uses On Base Percentage rather than Batting Average, which led him to take Adam Jones instead of Joey Votto with the seventh pick. Remember Touts! All Tout Wars leagues are OBP this year! AL touts are hoping Larry Schechter forgets.

The introduction to Paul Sporer’s piece about his team, picking from the 14th slot, before it hides demurely behind the Baseball Prospectus paywall. For subscribers only.

Inside the Mind of a Tout, is a radio clip featuring Adam Ronis talking about his team.

Lots of recaps were heard on the radio, which is a little harder to link to, but send clips if you have them!

Your 2013 Doubt Wars Champions! (beta)

Each of the winners will receive: A package of Ron Shandlerâ€™s 2014 Baseball Forecaster, the 2014 Mastersball Platinum Package , Rotomanâ€™s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Guide, the 2014 Rotowire Baseball Guide and the 2014 Patton $ Software and Data.

UPDATED: Oct. 5, 2013 at 6pm, with additional teams in the spreadsheet, and the NL champ’s name spelled correctly. UPDATED January 17, 2014 Spelled AL Civilian Champ’s first name correctly.

DOUBT WARS AL: Glenn Colton/Rick Wolf.
Civilian Champ: Andrew Pappas.
Runners Up: Eugene Freedman, Noah Hirsch

DOUBT WARS MIXED: Tim George
Pro Champ: Paul Singman
Runners Up: Jon Hrobuchek, Brent Crossman

DOUBT WARS NL: Jeffrey Pelletier
Pro Champ: Tristan Cockcroft, Todd Zola
Runners Up: Scott Katz, Justin Dowling

Tristan Cockcroft finished second to Todd Zola in the Draft Day Standings for Tout Wars, but his strong ERA and WHIP elevated him past Todd in Doubt Wars. Tristan, however, finished 200 innings short of the Tout Wars minimum. We didn’t anticipate that in Doubt Wars, but it seems less an issue for a Pro team than a Civilian team. Tristan certainly wasn’t gaming Doubt Wars.

Here are the standings for each league (click to enlarge):

DOUBT WARS AL

DOUBT WARS MIXED

DOUBT WARS NL

If you would like to download the spreadsheet compiling the final standings, please click here.

Steve Gardner: The Choice Is Yours

USA Today’s Steve Gardner acknowledges that he isn’t always right, and appraises his results and chances in LABR and Tout Wars.

Doubt Wars Mixed! Looking backward.

Top 10Â 12 Most Coveted Tout Wars Mixed Buys

Josh Johnson ($9): Thirteen teams jumped on the Josh Johnson bandwagon for less than a dime, and paid the price. BUST

Salvador Perez ($11): Thirteen teams thought Salvador Perez would beat expectations, but he has slowly risen to meet them. MEH

Ernesto Frieri ($8): Theoretically supplanted out of spring training, nine teams saw in Frieri’s low price and Madson’s fragility the makings of a bargain. Instead they got par support and a little agita. MEH

Julio Teheran ($6): Nine teams said the Tout Price was too low, and have been rewarded solidly by Teheran’s emergence. HIT

Casey Janssen ($7): More closer indecision led to eight teams jumping on Janssen, and scoring big for less. HIT

Jon Lester ($13): Eight teams had a feeling about Lester, call it an itch they weren’t able to scratch. MEH

Emilio Bonifacio ($7): Any of the eight teams in mixed leagues that snatched up this bargain-priced Bonifacio would have bailed long ago, though since his trade to Kansas City he’s run as was hoped and is starting to approach expectations for the year as a whole. BUST MEH

Mike Moustakas ($10): The low batting average last year scared down his Tout Wars price, and those who seized on the fire of his power potential in Doubt Wars got burned. BUST

Paul Konerko ($14): Sometimes a player looks like he’ll never get old, and eight teams see a falling price and buy. In this case, appearances were deceiving. BUST

Alcides Escobar ($7): Inexpensive middle infielders were valued, and eight teams took a chance on Escobar, whose 2012 BA was a big surprise. This year there was a correction. BUST

Domonic Brown ($7): A hot spring was the tip off and eight Doubt Wars teams jumped. While he’s missed time because of injuries, and he started slowly, when he’s been hot he’s been one of the top power hitters in the National League. BIG HIT

Matt Harvey ($8): He was consistently the best pitcher in the National League for the first four months of the season, delighting his eight Doubt Wars Mixed owners. GIANT HIT

Do breakouts help?

I just posted a story on the Askrotoman.com blog called The Overachievers (or are they?): What to expect from the first halfâ€™s most surprising hitters. It occurs to me that maybe we would learn something by looking at who drafted the year’s monster offensive profit generators and see where they are in the standings:

The Top 12 Hitters By Profit, Their Cost, The Drafting Team, Its Place In The Standings

Jean Segura, 15, Steve Gardner, 4th
Chris Davis, 20, Wolf/Colton, 2nd
Josh Donaldson, 10, Jason Collette, 7th
Nate McLouth, 3, Andy Behrens, 11th
Everth Cabrera, 17, Scott Wilderman, 12th
Daniel Nava, R, Larry Schechter, 1st
Manny Machado, 14, Joe Sheehan, 4th
Domonic Brown, 15, Phil Hertz, 3rd
Matt Carpenter, 14, Steve Gardner, 4th
James Loney, 7, Wolf Colton, 2nd
Yasiel Puig, 1, Lenny Melnick, 10th
Carlos Gomez, 25, Tristan Cockcroft, 1st

One thing for sure is that it’s good to have two of these guys.