I Like My Draft! Notes from the TW Mixed Draft 2014.

I woke up the day after the TW Mixed Draft to a curious email. It was addressed to me and said that my team had won the draft because my team had taken Mike Trout (duh) with the first pick in the previous night’s draft. Okay.

The issue was I was the live blogger, not a participant, but then I realized that in order to observe the draft I made myself a coowner of Tom Kessenich’s team. Tom had the first pick by virtue of having finished second in the league’s inaugural season and last year’s champ, Mike Podhorzer, moving to play in one of the only leagues this year.

So, I read on. CBSsports, who hosted the draft, went on to say:

Draft Recap

Thanks to players like Mike Trout, Tom Kessenich are the team to beat

It’s a long way to October, but you have won the first round, winding up with the top ranked draft. Your squad, led by Mike Trout, are projected to wind up with 96 category points. That’s 39 more points than Ray Murphy are projected to come up with. Coach Murphy will have all year to prove us wrong, but for now, Ray Murphy are slated to finish in last place.

Another team that will have some struggles is Tim McLeod, who have the worst infielders in the league. Coach Mcleod will have to trot out Corey Hart, Howie Kendrick, and Cody Asche into the starting lineup. Perry Van Hook, meanwhile, are the class of the league in that area, with infielders Miguel Cabrera, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Altuve.

Your strength is mainly in your pitchers, who project out to be the 2nd best in the league. That outstanding group is the reason why you are expected to wind up in 3rd place in the wins category.

Turning to individual picks, we tapped charlie wiegert as having made the best pickup with Robinson Cano in the 18th slot. He was projected to be off the board a full 11 picks earlier. On the other hand, Ray Murphy made the worst move of the draft. Coach Murphy selected Shin-Soo Choo with the 20th pick, which we pegged as a serious reach.

Your best pick up of the draft was Max Scherzer, who was expected to have been selected in the 24th slot, but who you got with pick #30. However, you mixed in some (minor) duds as well, the worst of whom was Zack Greinke, taken 12 spots ahead of what his average draft position suggests.

Paragraphs in italics are unique to your version of your league’s Draft Recap.

Now let’s return to some more human commentary.

Perry Van Hook’s draft review runs at Mastersball. He makes an astute point about reserve and DL list use in Tout, and lists the rookies taken and when they went.

Nick Minnix writes about forgetting that Tout Wars uses On Base Percentage rather than Batting Average, which led him to take Adam Jones instead of Joey Votto with the seventh pick. Remember Touts! All Tout Wars leagues are OBP this year! AL touts are hoping Larry Schechter forgets.

The introduction to Paul Sporer’s piece about his team, picking from the 14th slot, before it hides demurely behind the Baseball Prospectus paywall. For subscribers only.

Inside the Mind of a Tout, is a radio clip featuring Adam Ronis talking about his team.

Lots of recaps were heard on the radio, which is a little harder to link to, but send clips if you have them!

 

Your 2013 Doubt Wars Champions! (beta)

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Each of the winners will receive: A package of Ron Shandler’s 2014 Baseball Forecaster, the 2014 Mastersball Platinum Package , Rotoman’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Guide, the 2014 Rotowire Baseball Guide and the 2014 Patton $ Software and Data.

UPDATED: Oct. 5, 2013 at 6pm, with additional teams in the spreadsheet, and the NL champ’s name spelled correctly. UPDATED January 17, 2014 Spelled AL Civilian Champ’s first name correctly.

DOUBT WARS AL: Glenn Colton/Rick Wolf.
Civilian Champ: Andrew Pappas.
Runners Up: Eugene Freedman, Noah Hirsch

DOUBT WARS MIXED: Tim George
Pro Champ: Paul Singman
Runners Up: Jon Hrobuchek, Brent Crossman

DOUBT WARS NL: Jeffrey Pelletier
Pro Champ: Tristan Cockcroft, Todd Zola
Runners Up: Scott Katz, Justin Dowling

Tristan Cockcroft finished second to Todd Zola in the Draft Day Standings for Tout Wars, but his strong ERA and WHIP elevated him past Todd in Doubt Wars. Tristan, however, finished 200 innings short of the Tout Wars minimum. We didn’t anticipate that in Doubt Wars, but it seems less an issue for a Pro team than a Civilian team. Tristan certainly wasn’t gaming Doubt Wars.

Here are the standings for each league (click to enlarge):

DOUBT WARS AL

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DOUBT WARS MIXED

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DOUBT WARS NL

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If you would like to download the spreadsheet compiling the final standings, please click here.

Doubt Wars Mixed! Looking backward.

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Top 10 12 Most Coveted Tout Wars Mixed Buys

Josh Johnson ($9): Thirteen teams jumped on the Josh Johnson bandwagon for less than a dime, and paid the price. BUST

Salvador Perez ($11): Thirteen teams thought Salvador Perez would beat expectations, but he has slowly risen to meet them. MEH

Ernesto Frieri ($8): Theoretically supplanted out of spring training, nine teams saw in Frieri’s low price and Madson’s fragility the makings of a bargain. Instead they got par support and a little agita. MEH

Julio Teheran ($6): Nine teams said the Tout Price was too low, and have been rewarded solidly by Teheran’s emergence. HIT

Casey Janssen ($7): More closer indecision led to eight teams jumping on Janssen, and scoring big for less. HIT

Jon Lester ($13): Eight teams had a feeling about Lester, call it an itch they weren’t able to scratch. MEH

Emilio Bonifacio ($7): Any of the eight teams in mixed leagues that snatched up this bargain-priced Bonifacio would have bailed long ago, though since his trade to Kansas City he’s run as was hoped and is starting to approach expectations for the year as a whole. BUST MEH

Mike Moustakas ($10): The low batting average last year scared down his Tout Wars price, and those who seized on the fire of his power potential in Doubt Wars got burned. BUST

Paul Konerko ($14): Sometimes a player looks like he’ll never get old, and eight teams see a falling price and buy. In this case, appearances were deceiving. BUST

Alcides Escobar ($7): Inexpensive middle infielders were valued, and eight teams took a chance on Escobar, whose 2012 BA was a big surprise. This year there was a correction. BUST

Domonic Brown ($7): A hot spring was the tip off and eight Doubt Wars teams jumped. While he’s missed time because of injuries, and he started slowly, when he’s been hot he’s been one of the top power hitters in the National League. BIG HIT

Matt Harvey ($8): He was consistently the best pitcher in the National League for the first four months of the season, delighting his eight Doubt Wars Mixed owners. GIANT HIT

Do breakouts help?

I just posted a story on the Askrotoman.com blog called The Overachievers (or are they?): What to expect from the first half’s most surprising hitters. It occurs to me that maybe we would learn something by looking at who drafted the year’s monster offensive profit generators and see where they are in the standings:

The Top 12 Hitters By Profit, Their Cost, The Drafting Team, Its Place In The Standings

Jean Segura, 15, Steve Gardner, 4th
Chris Davis, 20, Wolf/Colton, 2nd
Josh Donaldson, 10, Jason Collette, 7th
Nate McLouth, 3, Andy Behrens, 11th
Everth Cabrera, 17, Scott Wilderman, 12th
Daniel Nava, R, Larry Schechter, 1st
Manny Machado, 14, Joe Sheehan, 4th
Domonic Brown, 15, Phil Hertz, 3rd
Matt Carpenter, 14, Steve Gardner, 4th
James Loney, 7, Wolf Colton, 2nd
Yasiel Puig, 1, Lenny Melnick, 10th
Carlos Gomez, 25, Tristan Cockcroft, 1st

One thing for sure is that it’s good to have two of these guys.

Tout Wars Auction Weekend: The Results Are In!

The spreadsheet is here, with all four league’s results. (Look for the tabs on the bottom or top of the page.

Comments on the auctions by the participants:

NL: Rotoman * Liss * Gardner * Melnick * Liss on YouTube (with Erickson) * Zola * Carty * Gianella

AL: Collette * Erickson * Siano * Berry * Erickson on YouTube (with Liss) * Behrens * Leibowitz * Michaels * Shandler

Mixed: Sherpa * Cory Schwartz’s Tout Ahem Projected Standings * Mack * Schwartz * Zinkie * Flowers * Gonos * Steinhorn * Minnix * Heaney
* Davitt
By others:

AL: Faketeams

NL: Rotoworld * faketeams

Both: Faketeams Shadowdrafts AL and NL Tout

Mixed: Ryan Carey Shadowdrafts *

If you’ve posted about the Tout Wars auctions (or draft) and don’t see a link here, please send it to webmaster (at) toutwars.com. Thanks.

Tout NL Live Blog! TRANSCRIPT!

[Mar 24 2013, 12:58 PM] meeson834: only an hour away! Im excited too see who will be the 1st one thrown out. Ill bet Kemp
[Mar 24 2013, 1:24 PM] TozRotoThink: Good morning everyone.
[Mar 24 2013, 1:25 PM] Tim McLeod: Lots of injuries in NL, should be very interesting today
[Mar 24 2013, 1:25 PM] Tim McLeod: Morning Toz
[Mar 24 2013, 1:26 PM] TozRotoThink: Morning sir…you have a busy blogging schedule, eh?
[Mar 24 2013, 1:26 PM] KaaashMan: Heya, yep should be.. what does Boggs/Motte go for, for one example.
[Mar 24 2013, 1:26 PM] Tim McLeod: Have a busy everything Toz
[Mar 24 2013, 1:26 PM] TozRotoThink: I hear that my friend. Well, despite being a couple of hours away, I’ll come and live blog with you.
[Mar 24 2013, 1:27 PM] Tim McLeod: excellent!
Continue reading “Tout NL Live Blog! TRANSCRIPT!”

Mixed Draft: Touts Talking About Their Teams

Ray GuilfoyleMike PodhorzerGrey Albright (written by Rudy Gamble) –

Others talk too…

Mark “Dr. Roto” Bloom and new RotoExperts weekend host Gregg Sussman talk about Scott Engel‘s team.