Each year we publish links to the Touts writings and ruminations about what happened in the season that just ended. Here they are for 2021:
Draft and Hold: Michael Stein |
Mixed Auction: Zach Steinhorn |
Head to Head: Frank Stampfl |
Tim McLeod had a 1.5 point lead going into the short season’s final week, but when he lost Michael Conforto early on he knew he was in trouble.
Scott White passed him on the way to the championship, easily topping Tom Kessenich, who pushed McLeod into third at the wire.
White finished second in the league in 2017, and third in 2018, and now finally has captured the crown, his first Tout Wars championship.
[Mar 3, 7:50 PM] rotoman: Hey, let’s start chatting. Is everyone on the public page for the draft?
[Mar 3, 7:51 PM] rotoman: Can you chat?
[Mar 3, 7:52 PM] Tim McLeod: We can always chat, Peter
[Mar 3, 7:52 PM] Tim McLeod: How is life in the big city?
[Mar 3, 7:52 PM] rotoman: Waiting for the virus, but otherwise good. 55 degrees today. A bit of spring.
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] Tim McLeod: Nice
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] Tim McLeod: I’m heading from the warmth to the cold
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] rotoman: You had some west virginia weather?
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] Tim McLeod: Next stop is buffalo
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] Tim McLeod: Yes, a bit wild today
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] rotoman: What slot are you picking from tonight?
[Mar 3, 7:53 PM] Tim McLeod: #6
[Mar 3, 7:54 PM] Tim McLeod: Gonna let em fall where they fall
[Mar 3, 7:54 PM] Tim McLeod: But wouldn’t mind bonding with Juan Soto for 2020
[Mar 3, 7:55 PM] Tim McLeod: I think I’ll hang out here if okay by you, Peter.
[Mar 3, 7:55 PM] rotoman: Soto at 6 is aggressive, but fine. That’s the beauty of the draft. You’re saying what’s best pick of the first 24 or so. Anyone is legitimate really.
[Mar 3, 7:56 PM] rotoman: Glad for you to be here.
[Mar 3, 7:56 PM] Tim McLeod: Agreed.
[Mar 3, 7:56 PM] Tim McLeod: If anyone has any questions of me, fire away. It might take a couple minutes but will try my best to answer
[Mar 3, 7:58 PM] rotoman: If you want to follow along with the draft, the draft board can be found at https://draft.shgn.com/nfc/public/dp/940/grid#baseball
[Mar 3, 7:59 PM] Tim McLeod: Time to get a rolling!!
[Mar 3, 8:01 PM] rotoman: Trout, Yelich, Acuna, Soto.
[Mar 3, 8:01 PM] rotoman: Sorry Tim.
[Mar 3, 8:01 PM] rotoman: Outfielder run is stopped by Belinger.
[Mar 3, 8:01 PM] rotoman: Tim is up.
[Mar 3, 8:01 PM] rotoman: Mookie.
[Mar 3, 8:02 PM] Tim McLeod: Mookie a nice consolation prize at #6
[Mar 3, 8:03 PM] rotoman: Yes indeed.
[Mar 3, 8:04 PM] Tim McLeod: 60 second clock so no dawdling
[Mar 3, 8:05 PM] rotoman: Here come the pitchers!
[Mar 3, 8:05 PM] Tim McLeod: Let the SP run begin
[Mar 3, 8:06 PM] rotoman: Will Charlie or Anthony double up? My guess no.
[Mar 3, 8:06 PM] Tim McLeod: I’ll have an interesting decision if Tatis falls to me
[Mar 3, 8:06 PM] Tim McLeod: Planning on a SP
[Mar 3, 8:07 PM] rotoman: I like that aggression on Alonso.
[Mar 3, 8:07 PM] rotoman: Aww. Boring Tim.
[Mar 3, 8:08 PM] Tim McLeod: I know
[Mar 3, 8:08 PM] rotoman: Tatis Turner is an interesting pair. Scott White goes two pitchers.
[Mar 3, 8:08 PM] rotoman: Tim add s Flaherty.
[Mar 3, 8:08 PM] Tim McLeod: ballsy move
[Mar 3, 8:09 PM] rotoman: Yeah. I think you take a first round pitcher so you don’t have to take another until the fifth or so. But Scott’s always up there vying.
[Mar 3, 8:10 PM] Tim McLeod: I’m looking at Albies or Meadows and then will get bit aggressive if Bichette is there
[Mar 3, 8:10 PM] Tim McLeod: No Meadows
[Mar 3, 8:11 PM] Tim McLeod: If HBP was a category Altuve gets interesting
[Mar 3, 8:12 PM] rotoman: SP run for the guys who skipped the first.
[Mar 3, 8:12 PM] Tim McLeod: yup
[Mar 3, 8:13 PM] rotoman: I like Albies.
[Mar 3, 8:13 PM] Tim McLeod: So do I….a lot
[Mar 3, 8:13 PM] Tim McLeod: so 50-30 after two picks
[Mar 3, 8:14 PM] Tim McLeod: I like that start
[Mar 3, 8:14 PM] rotoman: I see. First 2B off the board.
[Mar 3, 8:14 PM] rotoman: Plus 16 wins.
[Mar 3, 8:15 PM] Tim McLeod: yes, and now we wait…..
[Mar 3, 8:16 PM] rotoman: Something procedural, with Perry trying to draft Charlie Morton before it was his turn. Was still available when it finally was his turn.
[Mar 3, 8:16 PM] Tim McLeod: yes, he jumped the gun
[Mar 3, 8:16 PM] Tim McLeod: but worked out fine for him
[Mar 3, 8:16 PM] rotoman: That’s a fair place for Bogaerts, I think, but earlier than usual I think.
[Mar 3, 8:17 PM] Tim McLeod: Man I’d love to see Robles make it back to me but the odds are probably better on winning Powerball
[Mar 3, 8:18 PM] rotoman: What are your numbers?
[Mar 3, 8:18 PM] Tim McLeod: haha
[Mar 3, 8:18 PM] Tim McLeod: 4-2 for Robles
[Mar 3, 8:18 PM] rotoman: Is everybody following along in the live room?
[Mar 3, 8:19 PM] Tim McLeod: Altuve is still sitting there
[Mar 3, 8:19 PM] rotoman: What’s the feeling about Judge. A bargain in the fourth, if he gets close to 500 AB. But does he?
[Mar 3, 8:20 PM] Tim McLeod: He hasn’t in three years. He wouldn’t fall far enough for me to be interested
[Mar 3, 8:21 PM] rotoman: Altuve had to go to someone.
[Mar 3, 8:21 PM] rotoman: Tim takes Matt Olson, a chalk pick over shiny baubles.
[Mar 3, 8:21 PM] Tim McLeod: yup, which gave me Olson
[Mar 3, 8:21 PM] Tim McLeod: 40 homers works for me
[Mar 3, 8:21 PM] rotoman: I think it would for anyone.
[Mar 3, 8:22 PM] Tim McLeod: yes
[Mar 3, 8:24 PM] rotoman: One of the big questions has been whether giving last year’s winner first choice at draft position gives them an unfair advantage. Rudy Gamble said this, after winning in 2017 and 2018. Does it?
[Mar 3, 8:24 PM] Tim McLeod: The wheel on a 60-second clock is tough
[Mar 3, 8:24 PM] Tim McLeod: I don’t think so
[Mar 3, 8:24 PM] Tim McLeod: I think the best slots are 6-9
[Mar 3, 8:24 PM] Tim McLeod: and offering the winner first choice seems like a good reward
[Mar 3, 8:25 PM] rotoman: NFBC research suggests 10 is the best. But whatever, No. 1 or 2 doesn’t seem favored.
[Mar 3, 8:25 PM] Tim McLeod: It’s a long way back to 2/3 and 4/5
[Mar 3, 8:26 PM] Ray Murphy: evening all
[Mar 3, 8:26 PM] Tim McLeod: Hi Ray
[Mar 3, 8:26 PM] Tim McLeod: I really wanted Bichette bad
[Mar 3, 8:27 PM] rotoman: Hey Ray. Did you think about not choosing first in the KD preferences?
[Mar 3, 8:28 PM] rotoman: Greg is praising Beller on his Giolito snatch, and Tim is praising Rudy for Bichette.
[Mar 3, 8:28 PM] Ray Murphy: I did… though at the time, a few weeks ago, I had ended up in the back end of all of my drafts, and figured this was my one chance to secure a top spot. Honestly, once I got into prep last couple of days, I had Trout and Yelich valued identically, so it would have been more efficient to take #2. But the wheel is always fun, at least.
[Mar 3, 8:29 PM] rotoman: And you have some time to chat!
[Mar 3, 8:29 PM] Ray Murphy: exactly!
[Mar 3, 8:30 PM] rotoman: Dan Strafford is the first to three starters: Scherzer, Darvish, Syndergaard. With Jose Ramirez and Jon Villar.
[Mar 3, 8:30 PM] rotoman: Oh, and DJ LeMahieu to start the 6th.
[Mar 3, 8:31 PM] rotoman: Ray, how much do you take your most highly valued player versus addressing position issues?
[Mar 3, 8:32 PM] rotoman: Realmuto was the highest rated player left per ADP.
[Mar 3, 8:32 PM] rotoman: Now the highest rated is Giancarlo.
[Mar 3, 8:33 PM] Ray Murphy: im sort of shaping a roster positionally here, just grabbing guys from within sort of the top tier of value here. At this point in the draft there aren’t too many pos that don’t have something of value. so its value/position/categories all in concert
[Mar 3, 8:33 PM] rotoman: Sounds like perfect harmony. It was last year.
[Mar 3, 8:33 PM] Ray Murphy: its another easy thing about the wheel… i basically populate my draft queue while the picks are at the other wheel, and just watch ~10-12 guys get cut down to a handful
[Mar 3, 8:34 PM] Ray Murphy: (of course, when they get cut to zero, thats a problem)
[Mar 3, 8:34 PM] Tim McLeod: That it is, Ray.
[Mar 3, 8:34 PM] Tim McLeod: But lots of time to rebuild on the fly
[Mar 3, 8:34 PM] rotoman: There’s always Giancarlo!
[Mar 3, 8:35 PM] Tim McLeod: After last year, he’s Mike to me
[Mar 3, 8:35 PM] rotoman: A short-lived relief ace.
[Mar 3, 8:35 PM] Tim McLeod: definitely
[Mar 3, 8:35 PM] rotoman: Ray starts and Oakland run.
[Mar 3, 8:35 PM] Tim McLeod: offensively they were on a par last year
[Mar 3, 8:36 PM] rotoman: In wildly divergent situations.
[Mar 3, 8:36 PM] Tim McLeod: Like the Chapman pick a lot. My dream of two A’s power bats is history
[Mar 3, 8:36 PM] Ray Murphy: yeah, that was a case where my little queue got picked through. Semien and Chapman were the only two guys left from my little sweep through it 15 picks ago. I preferred a pitcher there, but this is kind of a dead spot in ADP where i just dont like the options here
[Mar 3, 8:37 PM] Tim McLeod: I agree, Ray
[Mar 3, 8:38 PM] Tim McLeod: I wait to see who Rudy gives me
[Mar 3, 8:38 PM] rotoman: Those guys are solid. The pitchers have potential, but all have flaws.
[Mar 3, 8:38 PM] Ray Murphy: I see Rudy’s got no pitching yet, so I’m not low man on the pitching stats
[Mar 3, 8:38 PM] rotoman: Conforto is a guy I’m buying a lot so far this year.
[Mar 3, 8:38 PM] Tim McLeod: Me too
[Mar 3, 8:39 PM] rotoman: I think a bigger year is coming at some point.
[Mar 3, 8:39 PM] Tim McLeod: I agree, and he’ll also give you 5-8 thefts
[Mar 3, 8:39 PM] rotoman: There’s a fatigue right now, which is a buying opportunity.
[Mar 3, 8:40 PM] Ray Murphy: Conforto def a strong pick there
[Mar 3, 8:40 PM] rotoman: I’m always a little surprised to see Correa come out this late, though it’s appropriate.
[Mar 3, 8:40 PM] Tim McLeod: Thanks, Ray
[Mar 3, 8:40 PM] Tim McLeod: SS has so many options
[Mar 3, 8:41 PM] Tim McLeod: and Correa doesn’t provide speed
[Mar 3, 8:41 PM] Ray Murphy: Meanwhile, Perri is clearly the guy who’s pounding OBP tonight. First Gallo, now Santana… two of the guys whose value most changes in OBP lgs
[Mar 3, 8:41 PM] rotoman: Judge too, if he plays.
[Mar 3, 8:42 PM] Ray Murphy: for sure
[Mar 3, 8:42 PM] rotoman: Strafford is suddenly in the saves game. He’s doing a reverse Sweeney, it seems.
[Mar 3, 8:42 PM] Ray Murphy: ah, the closer double-tap on the wheel. let’s see if it feeds a run
[Mar 3, 8:43 PM] Tim McLeod: I’ve got mine so not happening here
[Mar 3, 8:44 PM] rotoman: Sano plugs into Perri’s OBP sweepfecta.
[Mar 3, 8:45 PM] Tim McLeod: he has Biggio as well
[Mar 3, 8:45 PM] rotoman: I have to admit, I’m skeptical on Lance Lynn, even though he’s battle tested. Cole Hamels, too, though at least he’s going later.
[Mar 3, 8:47 PM] Tim McLeod: Couldn’t pass up the chance for a bit more speed with Rosario
[Mar 3, 8:47 PM] Tim McLeod: 30+ this year, Peter?
[Mar 3, 8:48 PM] rotoman: Different Perri/y. Anthony Perri is going OBP. Perry Van Hook has got a solid start.
[Mar 3, 8:48 PM] Ray Murphy: i wanted lynn to come back to me. just settled for hendricks. still dont love the pitching value right now, but couldnt wait much longer w/just strasburg
[Mar 3, 8:49 PM] Tim McLeod: I had Hendrick high in que
[Mar 3, 8:49 PM] rotoman: 30 is there for the taking, though I have no idea how they’re going to play it.
[Mar 3, 8:49 PM] rotoman: Closer run!
[Mar 3, 8:50 PM] Ray Murphy: never a good feeling to see that run start when you have no closers and are 28 picks from being able to get in on it 🙂
[Mar 3, 8:51 PM] rotoman: I think you’re just as well off throwing darts later.
[Mar 3, 8:51 PM] Tim McLeod: I agree
[Mar 3, 8:51 PM] Tim McLeod: with 40% + turnover there will be opps in-season
[Mar 3, 8:51 PM] rotoman: I also think Corey Seager is way undervalued. Granted there are a lot of SS.
[Mar 3, 8:53 PM] Ray Murphy: yeah, i agree… tho team construction wise, it can be tough to take an SS who doesnt give SB. So many other guys there who do.
[Mar 3, 8:53 PM] rotoman: No, that’s right. Though I think more power and production is coming.
[Mar 3, 8:54 PM] rotoman: Finally for Stanton!
[Mar 3, 8:55 PM] rotoman: Kepler! My whole reverse Sweeney theory for Strafford is shot.
[Mar 3, 8:56 PM] Ray Murphy: that’s 8 closers gone since i last picked… and im still 10 picks away 🙂
[Mar 3, 8:56 PM] rotoman: Good think anyone can close if given a shot!
[Mar 3, 8:56 PM] rotoman: No. 9
[Mar 3, 8:57 PM] Ray Murphy: 10….
[Mar 3, 8:57 PM] Ray Murphy: 11 (or 10.5 at least)
[Mar 3, 8:57 PM] rotoman: 10!
[Mar 3, 8:58 PM] rotoman: I can report that Ryu was at the top of Ambrosius’s queue.
[Mar 3, 8:58 PM] Ray Murphy: was torn between hendricks/ryu on last turn. came 75% of the way back
[Mar 3, 8:59 PM] rotoman: OH!
[Mar 3, 9:00 PM] rotoman: Seven picks since a reliever went.
[Mar 3, 9:00 PM] rotoman: Whoops.
[Mar 3, 9:00 PM] Tim McLeod: Still some solid closers left
[Mar 3, 9:00 PM] Ray Murphy: geez rotoman
[Mar 3, 9:01 PM] Guest2986: How high would you take Ohtani in a daily league?
[Mar 3, 9:02 PM] rotoman: Diamondbacks run!
[Mar 3, 9:02 PM] rotoman: Tim? Ohtani has more value if you can move him up day by day. How do you figure how much?
[Mar 3, 9:03 PM] rotoman: (Make your pick first, if you must.)
[Mar 3, 9:05 PM] Tim McLeod: This year 4’th/5th Rd?
[Mar 3, 9:05 PM] rotoman: While we’re waiting for Tim, I don’t think a daily league changes his value that much. You still have to have other options who are likely to play many of those same days and have to be benched if you’re playing Ohtain. Tim disagrees.
[Mar 3, 9:05 PM] Tim McLeod: Moving forward if he returns to form he’s a first round pick in Leagues that have daily moves
[Mar 3, 9:06 PM] Tim McLeod: I have hopefully 3 200 IP horses so what I want from Ohtani is 125 innings of great production
[Mar 3, 9:07 PM] Guest2986: Thanks, I was thinking 4th as well. Potentially 70% of near elite hitter and 60 % of elite pitcher.
[Mar 3, 9:09 PM] Tim McLeod: It’s the pitching stats I want
[Mar 3, 9:09 PM] rotoman: You’re showing Ohtani the DH, not Ohtani the pitcher.
[Mar 3, 9:10 PM] rotoman: Am I right you want the pitcher?
[Mar 3, 9:11 PM] Tim McLeod: yes
[Mar 3, 9:11 PM] Tim McLeod: He’s in my lineup at pitcher
[Mar 3, 9:12 PM] Ray Murphy: problem is NFBC site treats as one player, so nobody else can draft the hitter
[Mar 3, 9:12 PM] Tim McLeod: I wanted the pitcher
[Mar 3, 9:13 PM] rotoman: That’s exactly it Ray.
[Mar 3, 9:17 PM] Tim McLeod: Well that is now resolved
[Mar 3, 9:17 PM] Tim McLeod: and I thank you both for coming to my rescue
[Mar 3, 9:18 PM] Ray Murphy: that was fun 🙂
[Mar 3, 9:18 PM] rotoman: Good thing we were talking. What round does Ohtani the bat go?
[Mar 3, 9:18 PM] Tim McLeod: He doesn’t? Reserve pick would be my guess
[Mar 3, 9:20 PM] rotoman: Not enough AB.
[Mar 3, 9:21 PM] Ray Murphy: yeah, once-weekly lineup moves really limit the usefulness of Ohtani-H
[Mar 3, 9:21 PM] Ray Murphy: ok, poll: I just took CMartinez and Kela: is that 0, 1 or 2 closers?
[Mar 3, 9:22 PM] rotoman: They seem committed to Carlos as starter. So 1, for now.
[Mar 3, 9:22 PM] Guest2986: 1
[Mar 3, 9:22 PM] Tim McLeod: two 1/2 = 1?
[Mar 3, 9:28 PM] rotoman: Hunter Dozier suffers from bad team-itis.
[Mar 3, 9:28 PM] Tim McLeod: Time to take the gloves off
[Mar 3, 9:29 PM] rotoman: Carlson is a worthy flyer here.
[Mar 3, 9:29 PM] rotoman: I like Stroman this late.
[Mar 3, 9:29 PM] rotoman: Seth is licking his bat.
[Mar 3, 9:30 PM] rotoman: How do you parse the McMahon/Hampson playing time?
[Mar 3, 9:34 PM] rotoman: Hosmer is gloves off?
[Mar 3, 9:37 PM] Guest2986: 135 games McMahon, 100 games Hampson
[Mar 3, 9:38 PM] Tim McLeod: lol
[Mar 3, 9:38 PM] rotoman: Fair enough. I guess Hampson goes earlier because of strong finish last year?
[Mar 3, 9:39 PM] Guest2986: and steals
[Mar 3, 9:39 PM] rotoman: Arraez is a great pick for Strafford, though he needed another closer instead of Stanton or Kepler.
[Mar 3, 9:39 PM] Tim McLeod: where does he get his at-bats?
[Mar 3, 9:40 PM] rotoman: Hampson? At the expense of McMahon right? or vice versa.
[Mar 3, 9:41 PM] Guest2986: OF and utility man
[Mar 3, 9:41 PM] rotoman: I like Lucchesi and Folty in the 15th. Hardly sure things, but lots of potential.
[Mar 3, 9:42 PM] Tim McLeod: I think McMahon should be safe at 2B?
[Mar 3, 9:42 PM] Tim McLeod: The Rockies are a mess
[Mar 3, 9:42 PM] Tim McLeod: Desmond is now a part-time bat?
[Mar 3, 9:42 PM] Guest2986: I think rockies said McMahon will be full time
[Mar 3, 9:44 PM] rotoman: They seem to be in a good spot to make some moves. I guess Hampson gets PT if Desmond struggles. Or Murphy sucks. They were so much fun two years ago.
[Mar 3, 9:44 PM] Guest2986: short-side platoon as long as he still beats up lefties, right?
[Mar 3, 9:45 PM] rotoman: You got your May on Tim. I keep wondering where the innings are going to come from, as sweet as the talent is.
[Mar 3, 9:45 PM] Tim McLeod: I think we see 20 starts
[Mar 3, 9:45 PM] Tim McLeod: betting on it
[Mar 3, 9:46 PM] rotoman: Lotta question marks with potential in Ronis’s staff.
[Mar 3, 9:46 PM] rotoman: Good luck with that. It could happen, but…
[Mar 3, 9:47 PM] Tim McLeod: If it doesn’t the WW will eventually hopefully be my friend
[Mar 3, 9:47 PM] rotoman: Of course it will.
[Mar 3, 9:48 PM] rotoman: Thank goodness we didn’t turn McKay or Lorenzen into two players this year. Mayhem ensues.
[Mar 3, 9:48 PM] Tim McLeod: The one bat I wanted badly late was Grisham. Very happy
[Mar 3, 9:49 PM] rotoman: Yeah, very nice there.
[Mar 3, 9:51 PM] rotoman: I see Swanson go just before Dee Gordon and I think there has to be a mistake. But then, shortstops.
[Mar 3, 9:54 PM] Tim McLeod: so deep
[Mar 3, 9:54 PM] rotoman: Tim, I saw Gore and thought Terrence. Knowing you love speed.
[Mar 3, 9:54 PM] Tim McLeod: haha
[Mar 3, 9:54 PM] rotoman: A little early for him.
[Mar 3, 9:55 PM] Tim McLeod: I think with pressure on Preller to win he won’t hesitate to bring him up. He went with Tatis and Paddack out of the gate last year
[Mar 3, 9:55 PM] rotoman: I agree. Heck. He may even be ready.
[Mar 3, 9:56 PM] Tim McLeod: I believe I can find enough pitching to hold me until both May and Gore arrive. If I can’t, I’m in trouble
[Mar 3, 9:58 PM] rotoman: You know the guys will be there. The issue is do you grab the right ones?
[Mar 3, 9:58 PM] rotoman: Catcher run!
[Mar 3, 9:58 PM] Tim McLeod: Nice double down, Ray
[Mar 3, 10:00 PM] rotoman: I like Chavis. Nice pick for Rudy, I think.
[Mar 3, 10:01 PM] rotoman: Did you want Lorenzen as a hitter Tim?
[Mar 3, 10:01 PM] Tim McLeod: no
[Mar 3, 10:02 PM] rotoman: Np.
[Mar 3, 10:03 PM] rotoman: Holy cow, SS is deep.
[Mar 3, 10:03 PM] Tim McLeod: sure is
[Mar 3, 10:03 PM] rotoman: I knew that, but yeesh.
[Mar 3, 10:03 PM] Tim McLeod: Rd 20 and still have to fill my MI slot and have four options available I like
[Mar 3, 10:04 PM] Tim McLeod: Crazy
[Mar 3, 10:08 PM] rotoman: I’m trying to figure. Ah, Ahmed. I figured Profar and Dubon were in there.
[Mar 3, 10:09 PM] rotoman: As well.
[Mar 3, 10:10 PM] rotoman: Domingo Santana for Ray, and Seth Lugo. Quality picks late in the game.
[Mar 3, 10:10 PM] Ray Murphy: feels to me like santana’s ADP hasn’t rebounded the way it should have when he signed. CLE a great spot for him IMO
[Mar 3, 10:11 PM] rotoman: Totally agree with that.
[Mar 3, 10:11 PM] Tim McLeod: yes, definitely
[Mar 3, 10:12 PM] rotoman: Rudy buying Yankees.
[Mar 3, 10:12 PM] rotoman: Tim! Or should I say Tsim!
[Mar 3, 10:12 PM] Tim McLeod: haha
[Mar 3, 10:12 PM] Tim McLeod: Had to get ne of them
[Mar 3, 10:12 PM] Tim McLeod: one
[Mar 3, 10:17 PM] rotoman: Lots of pieces here in Round 21 to make winners.
[Mar 3, 10:17 PM] rotoman: So, is 2019 John Means the 2018 Kyle Freeland? I love these guys, but I’m not marrying them.
[Mar 3, 10:18 PM] rotoman: Except for Tanner Roark.
[Mar 3, 10:18 PM] rotoman: Ohtani Hitter goes to Beller in the 21st.
[Mar 3, 10:19 PM] rotoman: Rockies reliever run.
[Mar 3, 10:20 PM] Guest2986: Ohtani hitter will likely be valuable until mid-May
[Mar 3, 10:20 PM] rotoman: If that’s true that’s not a bad 21st round pick.
[Mar 3, 10:21 PM] Guest2986: I like it
[Mar 3, 10:21 PM] rotoman: Rey Murphy! He’s going to break out some year. Reylly.
[Mar 3, 10:23 PM] rotoman: Jordan Montgomery is a great pick at that point. Talent and opportunity, because of injuries.
[Mar 3, 10:26 PM] rotoman: Some question about Gamble’s 23rd round pick of Josh Lindblom. Ended up as an autopick when he timed out, but whatever his issue was, he realized it wasn’t a problem. So Lindblom stands. Could be a nice piece.
[Mar 3, 10:32 PM] rotoman: Adam Ronis takes Freddy Peralta in the 24th. This is a can’t lose move. Peralta is young, throws strikeouts, and if he puts it together eventually (this year) will be hugely valuable. Exactly the sort of long shot bet you want late.
[Mar 3, 10:34 PM] rotoman: Tyler Mahle is another worthwhile late round bet. It’s free money, go big.
[Mar 3, 10:35 PM] rotoman: Spencer Howard to DJ Short seems like a good longshot in the 25th. He’s unlikely to see the majors this year, but if he does he could make a real impact.
[Mar 3, 10:43 PM] rotoman: Everybody except Adam Ronis waited a round too long on Corbin Burnes. It seems.
[Mar 3, 10:44 PM] rotoman: Tim takes Caratini as C2. I like that.
[Mar 3, 10:44 PM] Tim McLeod: Thanks, Peter
[Mar 3, 10:45 PM] rotoman: Sleeprer Ryan Mountcastle goes to Scott White.
[Mar 3, 10:45 PM] Tim McLeod: Having a pretty good Spring
[Mar 3, 10:45 PM] rotoman: Mountcastle’s defense hurts, but how far is dee going to take Baltimore?
[Mar 3, 10:45 PM] Tim McLeod: Miggy in Rd 27. So sad
[Mar 3, 10:45 PM] rotoman: Miggy! Don’t start the HoF clock.
[Mar 3, 10:49 PM] rotoman: I’ve been waiting for Bassitt a few rounds now.
[Mar 3, 10:50 PM] rotoman: Pillar is a tough one, because the PT isn’t obvious, but he showed his talent last year and the Sox could use that.
[Mar 3, 10:51 PM] rotoman: I loved Roman Quinn about five years ago. And once you gain my love, I don’t let go.
[Mar 3, 10:51 PM] rotoman: But I do eventually fall asleep.
[Mar 3, 10:52 PM] Tim McLeod: AFL, right?
[Mar 3, 10:52 PM] rotoman: Fastest man alive it seemed back then.
[Mar 3, 10:52 PM] Tim McLeod: him and Billy
[Mar 3, 10:53 PM] rotoman: True, but Roman seemed like more of a ballplayer. Hamilton did make himself into a defensive plus, all credit to him.
[Mar 3, 10:54 PM] rotoman: Kikuchi is not a hopeless case.
[Mar 3, 10:54 PM] rotoman: Domingo German is a great pick for Perry Van Hook.
[Mar 3, 10:55 PM] Tim McLeod: Thanks for the discussion this evening, Peter!
[Mar 3, 10:55 PM] Tim McLeod: A fun evening
[Mar 3, 10:57 PM] rotoman: Thanks for the discussion Tim.
[Mar 3, 10:57 PM] rotoman: Mr Irrelevant is: Vince “appropriately” Velasquez. Will probably win the Cy Young.
[Mar 3, 10:57 PM] rotoman: Night all! Drive safely Tim.
[Mar 3, 10:58 PM] rotoman: Hope to see you in NY Ray!
[Mar 3, 10:58 PM] Tim McLeod: Thanks, Peter!!
The Tout Wars 2020 Mixed Online Draft will take place on Tuesday, March 3 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
You can listen to the proceedings on the Colton and the Wolfman Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio.
We will also have a live chat session right here, starting at about 7:45 PM ET.
Follow along pick by pick by clicking this link.
Here are our 2020 participants.
|Ray Murphy *Last year’s champ|
|Rudy Gamble *2017, 2018 champ|
|Adam Ronis *2015, 2016 champ|
|Perry Van Hook|
|Tim McLeod *2014 champ|
TOUT AL: Davitt |
TOUT NL: Hertz |
BaseballHQ did a five part series featuring Brent Hershey, Patrick Davitt, and Phil Hertz in the final weeks of their respective (Mixed Auc, AL, NL). Read them here. Part one | two | three | four | five.
At the end of May, the question was whether anyone could catch perpetual Tout Mixed Draft leader Rudy Gamble, but a disastrous month for Rudy didn’t knock him from the top spot but it made the question more of a question.
Ray Murphy’s machine of a team kept purring, and unsurprisingly Adam Ronis stepped forward. The result is Rudy still in charge, but the threats are closer.
All the categories are tight, all the contenders are mixing it up across the board. Give Rudy props for hanging in there, but we have ourselves a race.
Rudy (Still) Can’t Fail
by Jeff Erickson
We’ll delve into Rudy Gamble of Razzball’s hegemonic-like dominance of the Tout Wars Mixed Draft League momentarily, but first, a song:
I know that the spelling is different, but any excuse to include a Clash song has to be taken.
For the second year in a row, Rudy Gamble of razzball.com has won the Tout Wars Mixed Draft League. Once again, he had to hold off Adam Ronis of Scout.com for the title. I wanted to say that Rudy and Adam are the Red Sox and Yankees of the Mixed Draft League, but that wouldn’t do justice to the size of the field they are besting each year, and the comparison fails because there’s no carryover from year-to-year. Moreover, Rudy made a better analogy in his write-up of his victory—they are Federer and Nadal, with a combined four firsts and three second-place finishes over the last four years.
With the win, Rudy vaulted into third place on the All-Time Tout Wars leaderboard, behind only Fred Zinkie and Larry Schechter, despite having played only four years. Thus, Rudy will get another meal named after him at our annual Tout Wars get-together at Foley’s. It’s a good bet that if you ever have leftover Tout Wars currency from that meet-up and it has Rudy’s visage on it, you should keep it so that you can use it the following year.
It’s worth noting that Ronis isn’t that far behind on the list, sixth all-time and fifth among active participants, and fellow Razzballer Grey Albright has demonstrated similar strength, following up his 2017 win with another “cash” finish in 2018.
If you’re looking to see where I’m on the list, don’t bother. Seriously, it’s embarrassing. Having me write this article is like having Anders Jarryd or Manuel Orantes compare themselves to Federer or Nadal.
So … how did Rudy do it? Let’s take a quick look at the standings first:
The first thing that jumps out is Rudy’s utter dominance of the pitching categories. He won four of five categories outright and finished third in saves. He did this despite getting only 25 starts from his first pitcher, Noah Syndergaard, who he took at the 2-3 turn. Unlike many of his competitors, he backed up Thor with a second ace, getting Aaron Nola at the 4-5 turn. Two great starters aren’t enough to dominate the starting pitching categories, however – he had to hit on the slippery mid-round starters to succeed, and he did that in spades by getting Charlier Morton in the 13th and Blake Snell in the 15th rounds.
One might be tempted to dismiss those picks as windfalls – but I think that’s underselling the skill in picking in the mid-tiers. Moreover, because he had that second ace, he was less reliant upon ‘hitting’ with all of his mid-tier SPs. Obviously, there are so many landmines that he could have gone with (and in one case, in Round 12, did go with, in Jon Gray) instead of Morton and Snell – just looking at the draft grid, some disastrous alternative picks in that range included a lot of injuries (Danny Salazar, Garrett Richards, Taijuan Walker, Dinelson Lamet) and underachievers (first-half Cole Hamels, Chase Anderson, Aaron Sanchez, Jake Odorizzi). Rudy was able to combine all that top end starting pitching with quality contributors late in the draft, too – getting significant contributions from Eduardo Rodriguez, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tyler Skaggs, the latter two in the reserve rounds of the draft.
Rudy might not have won saves, but he got two solid closers in Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias that weren’t ever a threat to lose their jobs. 2018 was a really frustrating year to chase saves – plenty of closers lost their respective jobs, but often their replacements weren’t all that stable, either. Iglesias was Rudy’s first “value pick” at 9.1 – and it had the added bonus of preventing a disaster in Delino DeShields.
Turning to the hitting, once again most of Rudy’s value came from the draft rather than through trades or the waiver wire. Starting out with Mike Trout is great, especially in an OBP league, and then he hit perfectly at 3.1 with Christian Yelich. After that, he had a number of solid players but few breakout hitters (at least compared to the year before, when he nailed Tommy Pham and Whit Merrifield), though he got great values with Shin-Soo Choo (16.15) and Michael Brantley (19.1).
It wasn’t the proverbial “perfect draft” for Rudy – he had to overcome injuries and suspensions from Kevin Kiermaier (10.15), Steven Souza (11.1) and Jorge Polanco (14.15), for example. But he avoided the critical early-round disasters, which is so important in a format like this. He also invested very little in scarce positions. Catchers were a disaster in 2018, but with his catchers coming in Rounds 17 (Mike Zunino) and 28 (Bruce Maxwell), any shortcomings there weren’t that damaging.
Can Rudy be stopped? All signs point to no, but you should tune in next spring and of course read up at Razzball to find out!