This week’s interleague trade deadline FAAB Reports, finally! Well, not yet!

Mastersball.com’s Todd Zola is the Swat for Tout Wars AL. This gives him a front row seat on each week’s moves, and it landed him in the muck last night.

Here’s what happened: Tout Wars uses the Vickrey auction system, in which players are awarded to teams for $1 more than the second highest bidder bid. You bid $10, the second highest bidder is $6, you get the guy for $7. This sometimes works very nicely. An economist named Vickrey won a Nobel Prize in Economics for demonstrating that this method of bidding produces truer and more robust bids, because bidders don’t fear the risk of being embarrassed by a big overbid.

And this is true in Tout Wars, for free agents that two or more owners might covet.

But a problem arises at the claims following the midseason trading deadline. All the teams put in many bids and many contingency bids. When things go to form, as they did this year in TW NL, it’s all easy, but when they don’t, when there are a mosaic of interlocking contingent bids, which is what happened in the TW AL, it is a bear to figure out. Such a bear that onRoto’s Bidmeister stumbles. It struggles to figure out that a $73 bid in an owner’s third block is actually now $36 because of previous purchases reduced by Vickrey. And that’s only a part of it.

Todd worked late into last night trying to determine who should get who in Tout Wars AL. The problem was caused, mostly, because most teams avoided bidding on Troy Tulowitzki, apparently for some fatalist reason, and he fell to Mike Podhorzer for half price, after the Vickrey adjustment. This gave Podhorzer’s bids on other players (he bid his max on most everyone) extra influence and confused things no end.

Not that it’s Mike’s fault. He did the right thing, absolutely, but coupled with Steve Moyer’s attempt to buy lots of players for cheap, rather than spend all his money on one guy, hell broke out.

Which may be why that at this late point on Monday, we don’t yet have a Tout Wars report from Mastersball.com. Todd just tweeted that the report should be posted on his site around 9pm. He says it’s a goody, but not yet here at close to 11pm. Oh, here it is!

Maybe Mastersball is sick of us. Maybe they’re breaking up with Tout Wars. I know they’re sick of Vickrey (Todd tweeted that today). In any case, we’ll post when they post. And I will initiate a discussion about whether Vickrey is really a good thing in our little leagues this winter.

And tomorrow, Tuesday, we’ll post the observations of TW NL Leader Mike Gianella, who went into Sunday’s bidding with the hammer, and managed to spend quite a bit of his money. You’ll learn how and why then.

Here’s Mike’s column, which has lots of good insight but was headlocked by the wrong data that posted at the league stat site for the reasons detailed above. It will eventually be corrected, but here are my notes, which should help you read it until it is.

CORRECTIONS

Rob Leibowitz

Carlos Gomez Vickrey price is $71.

Seth Trachtman

Gerardo Parra Vickrey price is $39

Mike Podhorzer

Mike Fiers Vickrey price is $30. And change the comment to:

The biggest beneficiary of the diversification strategies of other owners with higher FAAB budgets was Podhorzer. Not only did Podhorzer snag Tulowitzki at slightly less than half of his raw bid with a smooth $35 Vickrey price, he also picked up Fiers for $30. Fiers certainly isn’t in the class of Cueto or Hamels, but in the watery pitching market of AL-only, this is a  win for Podhorzer. I really dig the aggressiveness of Podhorzer’s bids on the whole, and even though he didn’t have much of a chance at most of these players in the FAAB sweepstakes, I am more of a fan of being aggressive and getting the best player on the board than worrying about the bargains other owners may or may not get if the league doesn’t bid aggressively on the whole. Marte at $6 is a nice, sneaky play in a week where nearly everyone was focused on the NL imports.

Steve Moyer

Comment edited

Moyer needs a lot of help to get to the 60-point threshold, so instead of putting all of his eggs in one basket with one big purchase, he decided to diversify. I like the strategy to a degree. There is enough variability with the 57 or so games most major league teams have left to play that there is a better chance that two good players could earn more than one great player, especially in an AL-only, where the replacement level consideration is hardly a factor. However, had I been in Moyer’s shoes I would have probably tried two $30 bid blocks in the hopes that I could have walked away with two players of a higher caliber.

Ron Shandler

Johnny Cueto Vickrey price is $39.

Scott Engel’s Big Week!

scottengelLast week Scott Engel put together a late charge and finished second in Phase 4 of the Tout Daily contest. Engel built that team around a surprise starter for the Dodgers, Ian Thomas, who cost only $4,100, but wasn’t expected to last five innings. When he did, and earned the win, Engel’s team of hitting stars jumped up the standings and earned a ticket to the $2,000 finals on August 28th.

Engel’s approach this week was far more traditional, but the results were similar.

He got big nights out of Michael Wacha, owned by more than 25 percent of the active teams, and Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Andrew McCutchen, each owned by more than one in five teams. His one somewhat surprising hit was Jung-ho Kang, owned by about 10 percent of team.

Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge

Second place finisher Jeff Boggis, also a finals ticket holder, made a late pivot to Zack Greinke (one of just two teams to do so after Clayton Kershaw scratched because of ongoing glute and hip issues), which paid off nicely. He also scored on an Orioles stack, with Manny Machado and Adam Jones coming up big, and he had big games too from Jhonny Peralta and Anthony Rizzo.

Peter Kreutzer, for the second Phase in a row, scored big in Week 1, behind an excellent start from Danny Salazar (owned by more than a third of teams in the contest), and hitting from Manny Machado (did everyone have him?), Nelson Cruz and Anthony Rizzo. Shortly before game time Kreutzer shifted from Wacha and Adam Jones to Danny Salazar and Brandon Moss. That was the difference between first and third place this week.

Only four of the Top 10 teams in Week 1 of Phase 5 do not already have tickets to the August 28th finals (Kreutzer, Zola, Heaney and Sporer). Only one team has two tickets (the max) already to the finals (that would be Adam Ronis).

The contest Leaderboard can be found here, with the week by week totals.

More about Tout Daily can be found here.

 

Tout Daily by FanDuel Week 15 Results! Murphy’s Law Rules.

murphyRay Murphy rostered Lance Lynn, the week’s most productive pitcher, in this week’s Tout Daily by FanDuel, which proved to be most of the margin of victory.

That’s because on the hitting side, Tom Kessenich and Jeff Boggi$ (the preferred spelling whenever Jeff finishes in the money), the second and third place finishers, similarly to Murphy rostered two of the day’s big sticks, Kyle Seager and Hunter Pence. They fell short, however, by the difference between Lynn and their shared pitcher, Jose Fernandez, who pitched decently but did not beat the Phillies.

Fourth-place finisher Rick Wolf had Lynn on his team. He also had Jose Iglesias’s huge day, but lacked a strong second bat.

Screenshot 2015-07-18 09.06.18With his Phase 4 Week 3 victory, Murphy moves into the lead for the Phase by 10 points, ahead of Charlie Wiegert and Brian Walton. The latter is the only team to finish in the Top 10 all three weeks of Phase 4. The top three teams in the Phase will win tickets to the August 28 finals, when 15 ticket holders will vie for $2,000 in winnings.

Two Top 10 teams for the Phase are already ticket holders. Jeff Boggis and Michael Beller are 11 and 16 points respectively out of the Top 3. Players may win two tickets to the finals.

Phase Four finishes up next Friday, July 24th.

See the whole leaderboard here. Read more about Tout Daily. Visit FanGraphs.

Second Half Doubt Wars! Join Now!

doubtwarslogoDoubt Wars is the game in which players select their own teams based on Tout Wars auction prices, and see if they can outdraft the pros!

Second half Doubt Wars lets you draft a mixed league team using Tout Wars AL and NL prices. Put together your very own special $260 team and compete against 29 other teams for second-half honors!

To enter send the email address you are registered with to webmaster@toutwars.com. You’ll be assigned a team and can draft your team using the Create Roster button. It costs nothing.

But don’t delay. Teams must be created before the start of games on Monday, July 20th!

Seth Trachtman Wins Phase 4 Week 2 Tout Daily Contest!

strachtmanFriday night’s contest was dominated by Noah Syndergaard, who scored 24 points for Seth Trachtman and the next five finishers.

Trachtman also got big games out of Neil Walker and Kelly Johnson.

Runner up Charlie Wiegert got big games from DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Trumbo.

Gene McCaffrey added Prince Fielder, who was owned by a quarter of teams, and Matt Kemp, to Syndergaard.

Week 3 of Phase 4 will come next Friday. The top 3 finishers in each of the contests five phases will compete for $2,000 in prize money on the night of August 28th.

Trachtman’s winning squad (click to enlarge):

Screenshot 2015-07-12 00.25.34Charlie Wiegert takes a commanding lead over the field after two weeks, though no lead is safe in this game.

Charlie is followed by Gene McCaffrey and Brian Walton at the halfway point.

Read the leaderboard here.

Tout Daily Week 13. Missed It By This Much! Getting Smarter or Getting Luckier?

patrickmayoThis is the place where we hail the week’s Tout Daily by FanDuel winner, so let’s get this out of the way. Lenny Melnick calls him a Daily Fantasy Monster, but you know him as Patrick Mayo. Last night he won Week 1 of Phase 4 of Tout Daily’s five phase contest. That puts him in the lead to win one of three tickets awarded to the top three finishers of this four-week phase, a ticket giving its holder entry into the Tout Daily finals, on August 28th, in which 15 entries compete for $2,000 in prizes (contest and prizes courtesy of FanDuel).

Well done, Patrick.

Oh, you want to know about Patrick’s team?

Like half of the active Tout Daily teams this week, Mayo’s squad was built around Clayton Kershaw. The experts loved Kershaw in Friday’s Picks Column because a lefty strikeout pitcher against the struggling Mets offense was seen as the equivalent of money in the bank.

But Kershaw’s high price ($12,300) forced his owners to make like Greece and accept austerity elsewhere, which led to Mayo’s coup de grace rostering of Grady Sizemore, Gerardo Parra, and the unintuitively inexpensive Robinson Cano, who scored a combined 20.75 points Friday night.
Screenshot 2015-07-04 08.27.18
A look at Mayo’s roster shows that despite Kershaw’s disappointing performance (one reason you pay Kershaw so much is because his disappointing game is often close to the peak performance of lesser pitchers) no single player had a negative value, and this team (click to enlarge) was the evening’s best.

Which takes us to the night’s real story: Rotoman Rising.

Rotoman, who has to admit he is writing this piece, sent dinner guests home about 10:30 pm and checked his computer to see what fresh hell was destroying his Tout Daily squad. Entering Week 13 of the weekly contests, Rotoman had yet to taste the fruits of a Top-10 finish. (One of only four teams not to score at least once going into week 13.)

Rotoman had a hard time reconciling his belief that Daily Fantasy Baseball was a game with an extremely high variance of outcomes with the fact that he himself was so consistently bad (without even making rookie mistakes, like starting players who don’t play because they’re not in the lineup or the game is rained out).

The point is, that while the better player will certainly prevail over time, the outcome on any day is highly subject to luck. How bad do you have to be to not be able to even get lucky? Rotoman asked himself, not just once.

As Rotoman’s computer flickered to life on the FanDuel Live page, memories of incredible cheese cake (thanks Kim!) fogging his mind, a remarkable thing happened. The letters said kroyte, the numbers said 45.5 (1 of 43). This outcome was so unexpected it took a moment to comprehend. This did not mean Rotoman was 45th out of 43 contestants having scored but a single point, which was similar to some other week’s results. No, this meant of all the 43 teams playing, Rotoman’s score was the best. Rotoman was winning.

And not by a little. It turns out that Rotoman was the only team playing Chris Archer, who scored 14.66 points on 6.2 IP, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Alas, no win, but not bad. This was better than the owners of Michael Wacha were getting. He struck out six in seven innings while allowing one earned run. 12 points. Ten of the 43 teams owned Wacha, and everyone Rotoman was competing with in the Top 10 was playing Wacha, who was out of the game and not going to get a win. Wow, but then it hit Rotoman, hard: Kershaw.

Two teams, sitting down in the teens, maybe 17 points behind, were playing Clayton Kershaw, whose game against the Mets was just getting underway. Rotoman has to admit he watched for a while, as Patrick Mayo’s and Ron Shandler’s and Todd Zola’s teams climbed into the Top 10 and the Mets were retired innocuously inning after inning. Rotoman hoped to see Kershaw knocked from the game, the Mets taking a lead, but that didn’t happen, and when it was clear that a Kershaw win would vault Mayo’s and Shandler’s teams above team kroyte, Rotoman went to bed.

A series of disturbing dreams haunted Rotoman. Why had he chosen Ben Zobrist over Robbie Cano, who was much cheaper? Because that would have left Rotoman with $1,000 unspent dollars. Who would he have replaced with that $1K? Maybe his big scorer for the night, Kole Calhoun. That would have been a disaster. Can you simply not spend $1,000? That’s tough.

Maybe he would have upgraded Adam Jones, whose 0-4 cost team kroyte another point. Maybe Rotoman should have downgraded Jones to Grady Sizemore, which would have given him enough money to buy Clayton Kershaw! This game is tricky.

None of which would have mattered if Kershaw won the game against the Mets, but he didn’t. One reason Rotoman didn’t go with Kershaw was because Noah Syndergaard is a pretty good starter in his own right, and in fact Syndergaard shut the Dodgers down as hard as Kershaw was silencing the Mets. Which left the door open for Rotoman, but he didn’t know this as he slept, he merely dreamed it. Over and over and over again.

Alas, in the gray rainy morning light, Patrick Mayo’s team (which you’ve heard about already) took first place and $60 (thanks to a 10th inning Welington Castillo double and run scored). It was the broad support of his offense that made the well-earned difference. Rotoman settled for second and $48. Ron Shandler finished third and another money virgin of Tout Daily, Todd Zola, finished fifth, right behind the Godfather of fantasy baseball, Charlie Wiegert.

Notably, only one of the top 10 finishers in Phase 4 Week 1 has a ticket to the finals already. That would be Phase 3 champ Michael Beller. It is fun to still be competing as we prepare for Phase 4 Week 2 for this Golden Ticket (created by Jeff Boggis, who has a real one):

pk-golden ticket from Boggis

You can see the leaderboard here.

Which part of one-day games of fantasy baseball do you cherish? The fresh hell of defeat or the surprising richness of everything falling into place? Play against Rotoman and many other Touts in Tuesday’s Tout Challenge contest. Bet $2 and merely finish in the top half of the standings to win $4. Look for the #toutchallenge on Twitter this coming Tuesday.

The June 29, 2015 FAAB Report!

The fellas at Mastersball.com have posted their FAAB roundup for the week, which was mostly a quiet one. There were a few big bids, but all were reduced to little bids by Sir Vickery.

Mike Gianella takes on Tout AL and NL transactions (and includes TW Mixed Draft and Auction in a chart) for the week, at baseballprospectus.com.