Category: NL

Mike Gianella on Tout Wars NL and His Chances

Screenshot 2015-09-27 16.53.05We appreciate Mike Gianella’s weekly FAAB reports covering Tout AL and NL over at Baseball Prospectus on Tuesdays. The final one for this season will come this Tuesday, and don’t expect him to be making too many changes. We asked him some basic questions about the last eight days of his battle with Tristan Cockcroft, which we wrote about earlier today. He had this to say:

What does your team need in order to win?
At this point, I have probably done everything I can do in terms of what is in my control. I need to get a few wins to keep the clump of teams behind me from catching me and I need to avoid a disastrous pitching week to lose a point in ERA. But I don’t have much mobility in either direction. There is a path for Tristan to catch me, but he needs nearly everything to go right in the last week for him for it to happen. It’s not impossible, but it is fair to say it is a longshot.

Has anything changed for your team in the last week or two that is making a difference, for or against?
No, because thankfully (for me at least) a combination of strong hitting performances in August along with Tristan’s pitching staff unraveling has put me in a very comfortable position. Jose Reyes and Ben Revere have stopped running and I’ve had trouble procuring wins, but this hasn’t made much of a difference and most likely won’t.

The Tout Wars NL Race. Is It Over?

Here’s the first thing you need to know: In the Tout NL draft-day standings, those are the rosters each team left the draft with and no moves since, Mike Gianella would be ahead of Derek Carty at this point, 83 to 80.

In fact, in the real Tout world, where teams FAAB players weekly, and make trades, Gianella leads three-time champ Tristan Cockcroft, 92.5 to 81.5. Not only did Gianella have the best auction, but he seems to have had one of the best seasons, too. He’s gained 9.5 points over his draft, while Cockcroft has gained nine.

How much of a chance does Cockcroft have to catch up to Gianella? I toted up their potential positive and negative points, the volatility index, to see how much overlap there is between them. This is fairly easy in the counting categories, but harder in the qualitatives, where there are more moving pieces. So, there is some chance either team call fall outside this range, but this should give a fair idea of the possibilities of where they will end up.

Mike Gianella could gain or lose 4.5 points, which puts him between 97 and 88 points.

Tristan Cockcroft could gain 7.5 points or lose 8.5, which puts him between 89 and 73 points.

The chance for a fourpeat is still alive, but just barely. Is it over? Yes, you can put the YooHoo on ice.

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Who Is Winning Tout Wars? An Overview

With a month left in the season we’ve crowned one Tout Wars Champion for 2015: Charlie Wiegert is Tout Wars Daily champion. But what about the other leagues? While you can alway check in on the standings and transactions by using the links in the right nav at toutwars.com, at this point it might be a good time to check in on the pennant races.

TOUT WARS AL

Chris Liss is having a classic Liss season, young pitching, lots of hitting, lots of risk, and is seven points ahead of Jeff Erickson and nine points ahead of Mike Podhorzer. The three have bubbled up and down around the top of the standings all season, but Liss has benefited from Chris Davis’s spectacular season, and Carlos Correa’s emergence after being called up earlier in the year. There are plenty of points in play for all three teams, up and down, for this to turn any which way at any time, but Liss is clearly the fave.

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TOUT WARS NL

Mike Gianella is seven points ahead of standing three-time champ Tristan Cockcroft, but just two weeks ago his edge was only two points. For Cockcroft, the problem has been a freefalling pitching staff, which has won just a single game in the last 13 days, allowing Gianella to pass him. These teams have lots of points in play, too, so while you have to prefer to have the lead, there is no sitting comfortably at this point. Still, Gianella has to appreciate that he was the best team in the first half and has been the best team in the second half. Now he just has to bring it home.

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TOUT WARS MIXED AUCTION

At the halfway mark on the season Zach Steinhorn had a commanding lead, but that was before Fred Zinkie went to work. Zinkie was in 12th place on June 28, 39.5 points behind Steinhorn. From that point to the August 31 trading deadline he made 19 trades, and has taken a slim lead ahead of Scott Swanay and Steinhorn. Swanay was in 10th place on June 28th, and has nearly matched Zinkie in the second half. Meanwhile, Tim Heaney is just five points behind Zinkie, in fourth place. There’s a lot of pennant race to come in this one.

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TOUT WARS MIXED DRAFT

Adam Ronis and Paul Greco have been near the top of the standings all year long, but their weak second half performances have given Rudy Gamble a chance to open up some space ahead of them and Eno Sarris (whose had the best second half of them all). Gambles position is pretty strong, but he’s vulnerable in Wins and the pitching qualitatives,

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TOUT WARS X

Bret Sayre entered the last four-week contest 14.5 points ahead of Patrick Mayo and 31 points ahead of Doug Anderson. As we approach the halfway point, Sayre is 15 points behind Mayo, who has moved into a tiny lead. What looked like it might be a blowout has ended up a a nail-biter, if you’re Sayre and Mayo.

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Four Tout Leagues and their June 22 FAAB Reports!

mastersballlogoMastersball’s crew digests and displays this week’s moves, with nods to Chris Parmelee, Derek Deitrich, Kyle Schwarber, and Matt Wisler.

Mike Gianella has an excellent and informative look at the Tout NL FAAB pool, where the biggest buys came from last year, and who has made the best gains this year, at baseballprospectus.com.

Tout Wars FAAB Action of June 15

Big bids in each league, but for different players. Read Mastersball.com’s analysis here.

Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Gianella, first place in Tout NL, has his analysis of the week’s Tout AL and NL moves. It’s free!

June 8 Tout Wars FAAB Reports!

The Mastersball.com crew welcomes Mark Trumbo to the American League and and Joey Gallo to the majors. Big bidding ensued this week!

Mike Gianella’s BP report for Tout AL and NL is here.

May 25 FAAB Reports!

Todd Zola and the crew at Mastersball list the bids and write about them every week, and this week, too.

Jeff Erickson surveys the leagues he plays in FAAB results, which included Tout NL.

Mike Gianella’s BP FAAB round up is now posted at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26451.

Who’s Winning Tout NL on May 13, 2015?

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Ray Guilfoyle has had the lead most of this season, though Derek Carty has edged him from time to time. The middle pack is a comfortable ways behind at this point.

Ray built a team without speed, opting for solid bats like Adrian Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado on the corners, Starlin Castro at SS, and Jay Bruce, Corey Dickerson, and Marcel Ozuna in the OF. He went cheap at Catcher, but is getting hefty production too from Danny Espinosa at 2B.

Ray’s pitching staff features two semi-aces, Jordan Zimmerman and Lance Lynn, and one bought closer, in Jonathan Papelbon. He’s also getting closer production out of Jason Grilli, so far, who cost him nothing, and ace production out of Mike Leake and Bartolo Colon, each for a few bucks.

Most impressive, Ray’s DL includes Kenley Jansen, so more saves are likely coming, and three certifiable top prospects, in Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Hector Olivera.

Derek Carty is competitive, despite Travis D’Arnaud’s and Brandon McCarthy’s injuries and Javier Baez’ demotion, which represents $10 wasted so far. He has plenty of steals, in Billy Hamilton, but has dumped Saves, at least so far.