Michael Beller, Adam Ronis and Jeff Boggis win tickets to the #toutdaily on @FanDuel final on August 28th, when 15 ticket holders will compete for $2,000 in prizes and the Tout Daily 2015 crown!
Notably, Adam Ronis won his second ticket to the finals. (Each Tout Daily player may win a maximum of two tickets in the contests five phases.) Other ticket holders thus far are: Scott Pianowski, Lenny Melnick, Tom Kessenich, Lawr Michaels, and Jeff Erickson,
Notably, Derek VanRiper was edged out of a ticket by Jeff Boggis by .25 of a point. That’s a single out by a single hitter over the course of four weeks. VanRiper failed to win a ticket despite finishing in the Top 10 during Phase 3 three times. Only Michael Beller, the Phase 3 winner, also finished in the Top 10 three times during Phase 3.
Notably, nobody else was close to the tickets.
Which brings us to Tim McCullough, who won Phase 3 Week 4, with 50.25 points. This was his second Top 10 finish in #toutdaily’s 12 weeks.
Much like Week 11 champ, Phil Hertz, McCullough built his team with unpopular choices. Only Rajai Davis, Adrian Beltre and Xander Bogaerts were owned by more than two other Tout Daily teams.
Big earners for McCullough were spread across the board, with his exclusive Jake Arrieta earning 13 points despite failing to get the win in St. Louis, and Russell Martin, Prince Fielder, Dee Gordon, Scott Van Slyke and Rajai Davis each earning more than five points.
Phase 3 Week 4 runners up include Ray Murphy (Taijuan Walker, Edwin Encarnacion and Scott Van Slyke) and Tim Heaney (Tyson Ross, Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Dozier and Ryan Raburn).
Notably, Charlie Wiegert’s fourth-place team was the highest finisher to roster the night’s biggest-scoring (and highest-priced) starter, Max Scherzer.
Congratulations to Tim McCullough, Adam Ronis, Michael Beller and Jeff Boggis, and please join us next week for Phase 4 Week 1, when the slate is wiped clean!
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 12 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 4 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Here are the leaders going into this final week (click to enlarge):
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Paul Sporer Picks
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) The contact-heavy approach has served ATL well this year against righties where they sit around or just below average. Yes, that is being “served well” for ATL standards because they were expected to be a total doormat coming into the season and they have been vs. lefties. They sit 28th in wRC+ at 76 WITH Freddie Freeman… imagine them without and it’s not like he killed lefties in the first place (.769 OPS). Liriano has been mostly excellent this year with a 3.26 ERA and skills to back it (and then some). He’s had a few clunkers as he always does, but the upside is elite once he gets rolling.
Luis Valbuena ($3900–New York Yankees at Houston) Valbuena is a DFSer’s dream with his low costs and HR-dependent production. With 19 HRs the price has jumped up, but he’s still worth targeting in tourney situations because of that power output. He’s incredibly boom or bust with two 14-pt nights within his last eight games and then just 7.25 pts in the other six combined. He’s at home and he’s facing righty, his two prime splits. And he’s facing a righty who gets mauled by lefties in Nathan Eovaldi (.964 OPS v. LHB).
Brian Walton Likes
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) Wise money will be on Max Scherzer ($12,500) against the inept Phillies offense, but then again, if the Nats’ ace was ever going to have an unexplainable let-down, wouldn’t this be the time? Instead, I will save almost three grand and select the ace of my National League Tout Wars squad, Pittsburgh’s Francisco Liriano, who takes on the Freddie Freeman-less Braves at home.
Jason Heyward ($3700–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) On the offensive side, I will highlight Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward. Early returns had pegged the Braves as the clear winner in the Shelby Miller trade, but Heyward is finally heating up. The 25-year-old has a .913 OPS in June and is coming off a Miami series during which he went deep twice and plated four.
Jeff Boggis Has A Lot on the Line Tonight
Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) Going into tonight’s contest, I am in 3rd place and a close to a “golden ticket” into the Tout Daily Championship, so I can’t afford to get cute and take chances with my roster tonight. Starting pitching is my top priority and I plan on building my team around Max Scherzer. He is the highest salaried pitcher tonight, but that is not stopping me from rostering him in tonight’s contest. Scherzer has averaged 16.95 fantasy points per game this season and over the past 2 weeks, he has averaged 26 fantasy points. He is coming off his no-hitter against Pittsburgh on Saturday and he is facing a team that he has pitched well against this season. In 2 starts against the Philadelphia Phillies this season, he is 2-0 and is averaging 8 innings pitched, 1 earned run, and 7.5 strikeouts. If he repeats this average, that’s 18.5 fantasy points on Friday night. Scherzer faces Aaron Harang who is giving up a lot of home runs lately. Over the last 4 starts, Harang has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 23.2 inning pitched. There is a 50% chance of rain in Philadelphia on Friday, but it decreases to only 20% on Friday night.
Nolan Arenado ($4,500–Colorado at San Francisco) The third baseman for Colorado is the hottest hitter in baseball this week and ranks #1 overall in the past 7 days with 9 runs scored, 4 home runs, 9 RBIs, and a .391 batting average. He faces Tim Hudson tonight to where he is slugging .500 against him in his last 19 plate appearances. Arendado has 20 home runs and 60 RBIs on the season.
Todd Zola Divines
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) Facing a weak-hitting Braves team that whiffs at a 22 percent clip versus southpaws, at home in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league. It’s not even a bang-for-the-buck thing. I expect more points from Liriano than anyone on the docket, including Scherzer and Kluber.
Derek Norris ($2,800–Arizona at San Diego) You know the expression friends with benefits? I call this a punt play with benefits. Norris faces a weak lefty at a minimum price at a position I’ll either spend a ton for the right situation or go cheap. This is going cheap in a great situation.
Al Melchior Ruminates
Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadephia) Everyone knows by now that Scherzer has been nearly perfect in back-to-back starts, and he has been flat-out dominant all season long with great control. Add in a matchup against the worst offense in the majors against righties and that makes Scherzer worth every penny.
Luis Valbuena ($3900–New York Yankees at Houston) Valbuena doesn’t hit for average against righties or lefties, but he does crush righties for a .288 Iso. Eovaldi has allowed a .380 batting average to lefties. Looks like the perfect night to start Valbuena.
From the Godfather of Fantasy Sports, Charlie Wiegert
Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadephia) The closest thing to a sure thing, so you have to pay the price. But Max has been on a roll, has an inferior Phillies team, and wants to extend the Washington pitchers scoreless innings streak. He’s 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA vs Phillies this year, pay the price and get the best.
Evan Longoria ($2900–Boston at Tampa Bay) I’ll have to go cheap with Scherzer, so looking for bargains. I’ll take a couple $2200 outfielders, and some right handed hitting Blue Jay hitters at home vs Texas lefty starter Nick Martinez and hope Evan Longoria takes Rick Porcello deep.
Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) Anyone cheaper than Mr. No-Hitter is a bargain tonight and Inside Edge says Lirano is the best choice on the board. When the Phillies are pounding Scherzer later, you’ll be doing the happy dance (OK, I’m getting carried away).
Justin Upton ($3,300–Arizona at San Diego) Clicks on all cylinders according to the new, even more improved this week Inside Edge engine. Say Hey, Robbie Ray!
Ray Murphy’s Thoughts
Taijuan Walker ($7,800–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) Much attention will be focused on Scherzer, but I’ll take a shot with Taijuan Walker tonight for $7800. He’s been on a roll for the last month, and in that time has established that he can thrive on the road. He is at Anaheim tonight, facing a surprisingly-punchless Angels lineup. I’ll roll with him and bet that I can use the $4700 savings between him and Scherzer to build an offense that makes up any points gap between the two hurlers.
Scott Van Slyke ($3,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami) is my favorite platoon specialist tonight: facing rookie southpaw Justin Nicolino, Van Slyke will slot into the middle of the Dodgers lineup. Look for a long ball from him.
Michael Beller Zags
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) You can go in a lot of different directions with your pitcher tonight, but I’m riding with Francisco Liriano. A matchup with the Freddie Freeman-less Braves? Yes, please.Josh Donaldson ($4,100–Texas at Toronto) Rostering Liriano instead of one of the pitchers priced higher than him allows me to stack Blue Jays. Of all those Jays, I think Josh Donaldson is the best bet. He should be able to take advantage of a matchup with Nick Martinez.
Eno Sarris Digs
Jesse Hahn ($7,800–Kansas City at Oakland) Way down there on the list, the 12th-most expensive pitcher, that’s the one I want. Hahn hasn’t been a great source of strikeouts, but he continues to tell me they are coming, and there are reasons to believe — his curve is among the league-leaders in spin rate, and was a top-five pitch by whiffs last year among curveballs thrown by starters. In the meantime, though, he’s just a really high floor pitcher at home. After being on teams with pitcher’s parks over the last two years, he’s shown a 3.03 ERA at home. Like the price most of all, though.
Victor Martinez ($3,300–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) It’s so nice to be able to play Victor Martinez at catcher. It’s even nicer when he’s facing a lefty that uses a curveball as his out pitch. Martinez has traditionally batted better from the right side, and has mashed yakkers over his career. Given that Jose Quintana doesn’t get many whiffs, and Martinez doesn’t whiff much, this seems like a great matchup for the Tiger. I was tempted to put a cheap Ryan Rua on here — the Texas outfielder is facing a lefty today, in Toronto — but Rua will bat lower in the lineup and is more of a lineup hole-plugger with some upside.
Phil Hertz Hits
Jesse Hahn ($7,800–Kansas City at Oakland) I’m a little nervous about Jesse Hahn’s potential lack of strikeouts, but he’s been pitching well, the A’s are playing well, and the price is right.
Logan Morrison ($2,400–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) has an OPS north of .800 against righthanded pitchers and has hit Matt Shoemaker well before.
Scott Engel’s Kiss
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) If you are not going to spend up for Max Scherzer tonight, then Francisco Liriano looks like a good option at $9,900. The Braves offense is rather punchless without Freddie Freeman and Liriano should be in line for the win.
Brian Dozier ($3,900–Minnesota at Milwaukee) Kyle Lohse is having a terrible season and I will always attack him when I can. Righties are hittng .323 with 10 HRs against him so I will lock in Brian Dozier at 3,900 and maybe add a Twins teammate or two.
Gene McCaffrey’s Pearls
lex Colome ($6,400–Boston at Tampa Bay) Roll those dice with Alex Colome against the anemic Red Sox in Tampa. You may lose but you should have plenty of hitting points.
Robinson Cano ($2,600–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) is finally heating up, nice spot vs lost righty Shoemaker tonight.
Lenny Melnick’s Voice
Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) If we are true Baseball fans ,we must root for Max Scherzer to tie Johnny Vander Meer’s record of 2 NO hitters in a row Im rooting and playing him for all the wrong DFS reasons
Evan Gattis ($3,300–New York Yankees at Houston) Eovaldi in Houston? Give me Gattis and a side order of Valbuena please! Ill take it TO GO! (deep)
Jake Ciely Skies One
Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) Man, it’s tough to stomach a pitcher priced at $12,500, but is there a chance we see back-to-back no-hitters for Max Scherzer? After all, the Phillies are the worst team in baseball against righties for wOBA (.279) and wRC+ (74). There are quite a few hitters in the $2,000 range, where you can build a solid lineup behind Scherzer (I did it), so you have to go with the guy who has 52 points over his last two starts.
Jake took Byron Buxton, early in the day, but switched to Bryce Harper when Buxton went on the DL.
Lawr Micheal’s Disembodied Poetics
John Lackey ($8,800–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) Since I need points, my “crapshoot” is Lackey facing the Cubbies, who are indeed free swingers.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,200–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) With Josh Harrison ($3,300) A minor stack against Williams Perez, who has pitched well enough, but averted disaster by allowing opposing hitters a .324 OBP to go with his 1.377 WHIP.
Scott Swanay’s Stabs
Trevor May ($6,400–Minnesota at Milwuakee) He’s been pitching better of late, and he gets to face a strikeout-prone team(Milwaukee) that’s starting a struggling pitcher (Kyle Lohse). Max Scherzer seems like the “obvious” pick for tonight, but the Phillies don’t strike out a lot, so I’ll spend my money elsewhere.
Charles Blackmon ($4,400–Colorado at San Francisco) The price tag seems low for a streaking hitter facing a mediocre starter (Tim Hudson). The only thing that could make this match-up more appealing were if the game were being played at Coors Field. Brett Gardner was the other hitter I considered tabbing for this week’s contest.
Doug Anderson’s Dailies
Tyson Ross ($8,800–Arizona at San Diego) – FanDuel has five pitchers priced above Ross. Just remember this is Tyson Petco Ross we’re talking about. He’s a much different pitcher than Tyson on-the-road Ross. While this year’s splits don’t agree, I’m going with a career’s worth of splits. He’s also coming off a dominant performance of his own against these same Diamondbacks.
Yoenis Cespedes ($3,700–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP) – First of all, I’m not a big believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. BUT, Cespedes is part of maybe the best stack of the night, and he’s 8-for-12 with four home runs off Quintana in his career. It’s a small sample size, but it does tell me Quintana is not going to dominate Cespedes.
Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) 7 (8) Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) 5 (17) Taijuan Walker ($7,800–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) (12)
Jesse Hahn ($7,800–Kansas City at Oakland) 2 (8) Alex Colome ($6,400–Boston at Tampa Bay) 2 (5) John Lackey ($8,800–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) Trevor May ($6,400–Minnesota at Milwaukee) (-4.67) Tyson Ross ($8,800–Arizona at San Diego)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Luis Valbuena ($3900–New York Yankees at Houston) 2 (.25) Jason Heyward ($3700–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) (-1) Nolan Arenado ($4,500–Colorado at San Francisco)
Derek Norris ($2,800–Arizona at San Diego) (2.25) Justin Upton ($3,300–Arizona at San Diego) Evan Longoria ($2900–Boston at Tampa Bay) Scott Van Slyke ($3,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami) (8.25)
Josh Donaldson ($4,100–Texas at Toronto) (3.25)
Victor Martinez ($3,300–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) (1.25) Logan Morrison ($2,400–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) (.25) Brian Dozier ($3,900–Minnesota at Milwaukee) (7.75)
Kole Calhoun ($2,200–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) Robinson Cano ($2,600–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) (5.25) Evan Gattis ($3,300–New York Yankees at Houston)
Bryce Harper ($5,300–Washington at Philadelphia) Andrew McCutchen ($4,200–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) With Josh Harrison ($3,300)
Charles Blackmon ($4,400–Colorado at San Francisco) Yoenis Cespedes ($3,700–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) Ian Kinsler ($2,800–Chicago White Sox at Detroit)
I’ve had a lot of bad days playing DFS, when most of my picks were outliers, guys picked in under 5 percent of the teams.
Tonight, Phil Hertz won Week 3 of Phase 3 of Tout Daily with a roster of just such outliers. Only Steven Vogt, who was on 11 percent of Tout Daily teams was on Phil’s squad and more than two others.
Phil was the only owner of Roenis Ellis, who he plugged in this afternoon’s Tout Picks post at ToutWars.com.
On the hitting side, he soared with Nolan Arenado, Stephen Vogt (who was owned by five teams), Jhonny Peralta, Brett Gardner and Justin Upton. Apart from Vogt, none of his scorers was owned by more than two teams in the Tout Daily contest.
It should be noted that Hertz hurt. The second place team was more than 10 points behind. Second place finisher Jake Ciely managed to do it without a productive pitching performance (from Carlos Carrasco). It seems there are many ways to skin a cat.
The weekly leaders for the ticket to the final on August 28 are: Derek Van Riper, Michael Beller, and Jeff Boggis, but they are trailed by Scott Pianowski, Adam Ronis, Brian Walton and Lenny Melnick, all of whom (apart from Brian Walton) already have tickets to the finals.
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 11 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 3 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Todd Zola Proclaims
Chris Sale ($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) He fanned double digits six times in his last seven outings and facing a squad that whiffs at a 23 percent clip against soutpaws. Chalk, vanilla, call it what you will. No reason to get cute.
Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) I’ll need some lower priced hitters in good spots and it doesn’t get any better than Wong leading off in Citizens Bank Park against fill-in Phillippe Aumont.
Scott Swanay Picks
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) – It’s tempting to go with one of the bigger name options for tonight (Sale, deGrom, Gray, Shields), but I’ll save a few shekels here and put it towards a stronger hitting lineup. Usually, I wouldn’t want a pitcher facing the same team for consecutive starts, but with the Mariners’ offense as anemic and strikeout-prone as it is, I feel it’s worth a shot.
Josh Reddick ($3,400–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) – I like his match-up vs. Matt Shoemaker, and it’s rare to find someone with a favorable match-up who also has both the handedness and home/away splits in his favor. Chris Coghlan and Billy Burns were the only other two hitters who I felt met all three criteria tonight, but I’ll go with the guy who has the best chance of knocking one out of the park.
Scott Engel Recommneds
Jacob DeGrom ($10,800–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) The Mets are on a two-game losing streak and Jacob deGrom is pitching like a real ace right now, a guy who steps in and gets the team back on track when they need it. He’s been rolling and the Mets have owned the Braves so far this year. He’ll get the W in very effective fashion.
Gerardo Parra ($2,500–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies)Gerardo Parra is a nice value at $2,500 to give you exposure to the Brewers lineup at Coors Field. He will also allow you to frontload your lineup elsewhere.
Ray Murphy Suggests
Rubby de la Rosa ($7,000–San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks) stopped the bleeding in his last start, firing a gem at SF after three straight shaky outings. Facing the RH-heavy Padres tonight at home is a good draw for Rubby. There’s risk here, but the price is right ($7000) if your overall standing in this phase dictates you look at an under-the-radar option.
Carlos Gonzalez ($4000–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) is finally heating up (1.009 OPS in June) after a lousy April/May, and his salary hasn’t fully corrected yet. In a home game against a shaky RHP in Taylor Jungmann, Gonzalez is just as good a play as the $5000+ elite OFs, but comes at a 20% discount.
Jake Ciely Says
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) Chris Sale is extremely enticing, but it’s hard to build a lineup around an $11,000 pitcher. Enter Carrasco. He has one of the larger projected run differentials today, giving him a great chance for the win. On top of that, the Rays are in the bottom third for wOBA and wRC+ against righties and have the seventh highest K% (21.0) against them. Carrasco has 10 starts with six-plus strikeouts and eight in three of his last four starts.
Charlie Blackmon ($3,900–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) After a weak May where Blackmon only hit .220, he’s cruising along with a .288 AVG in June. As we all know, Blackmon also hits righties much better with a .305 AVG against them this year versus .164 for lefties (career split .292/.264). The Rockies have the highest projected run total today, are at home and face Taylor Jungmann, who has been solid through his first two starts but is far from a shut down pitcher.
Doug Anderson Likes
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) Carrasco has faced a tough early schedule and has been burned by a .342 BABIP Against. The strikeouts are there (10.34 K/9) and the walks aren’t (2.19 BB/9). His 2.84 xFIP is what you need to look at.
Joey Votto ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) Joey Votto is Joey Votto. Dan Haren is what puts this matchup over the top. Haren has given up 13 homers this season in 81 innings. He’s got a 4.23 ERA on the road, and a career ERA of 5.59 at Great American Ballpark. That $4,000 salary is not a huge roadblock either.
The Godfather of Fantasy Sports, Charlie Wiegert, Makes An Offer
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) a bit of a long shot…he’s been pitching good, shut down the Cardinals in his last start at home and got some K’s. Milwaukee has been scuffling and starting a rookie at Coors, so a win should happen!
Ben Paulson ($3,100—Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) Colorado hitters against the rookie, with Ben Paulson popping a long ball. Also keying on some Card lefties at Philly, and Blue Jay’s against the O’s.
Jeff Boggis for Fantasy Baseball Empire
Chris Sale($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) Over his last 7 starts, Sale has averaged 7.5 innings pitched, 11.3 strikeouts, 1.3 earned runs, and 19.9 fantasy points. Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on Friday, but let’s analyze his cost per fantasy point compared to the other top starting pitchers over their past 7 starts: Chris Sale (19.9 FP/$11,000/$552 per fantasy point), Jacob deGrom (16.0 FP/$10,800/$673 per fantasy point), Sonny Gray (14.1 FP/$10,100/$717 per fantasy point), James Shields (13.0 FP/$9,500/$728 per fantasy point), A.J. Burnett (14.2 FP/$9,200/$646 per fantasy point). On a dollars per fantasy point basis, Chris Sale is your best starting pitching investment. I also like that Sale is facing Colby Lewis, who owns an ERA of 4.37 on the season. By rostering Chris Sale, that leaves me with an average of $3,000 for my remaining 8 hitters.
Miguel Cabrera ($5,400–Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees) I really wanted to go with Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200), who leads all hitters this season in home runs with 25, RBIs with 63, faces starting pitcher Mike Leake, who has surrendered 13 home runs on the season. But there is an 80% chance of rain on Friday in Cincinnati and I can’t risk a top salaried batter not playing in my lineup due to weather issues. I also like Bryce Harper ($5,400), but he may be potentially out with a with a mild left hamstring strain that he suffered on Thursday. So I am going with Miguel Cabrera who is tied for 2nd overall this season, averaging 3.7 fantasy points per game. He has a good pitching matchup at New York against Adam Warren who has a 3.78 ERA and has surrendered 8 home runs on the season.
Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) Inside Edge rates him behind only Sale and deGrom tonight and you’ll need more than $4K more to buy either of those two.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5200–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) Cheap sleepers are lacking on the Inside Edge board tonight, so I’ll give you an expensive guy who scores a perfect 100 on the Matchup Rating. The fact that he’s facing righty Mike Leake tonight might camouflage him as a must-play.
Brian Walton Wants
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) has never pitched in Seattle. In fact, the right-hander is making just his seventh career MLB start Friday night. But when the rookie has pitched, he has been sharp, with an even 2.00 ERA and better than a strikeout per inning. The 21-year-old did toss five scoreless frames against Seattle at home last time out and the Mariners’ offense has been anything but sharp this season. That makes this a decent matchup for anyone looking to save on pitching.
Carlos Beltran ($2,300–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) I watched the late-career version of Carlos Beltran closely for two years at St. Louis. While his streaky stretches are fewer and farther between than in his heyday, the 38-year-old is still capable of doing damage. Beltran is 4-for-10 with a double and a home run in his last three games and is a nice buy at $2300.
Paul Sporer’s Spiel
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) The biggest factor with prospects Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela coming up isn’t their fantasy impact with the bat, it’s their glove work that will help the starting rotation. Carrasco might be taking the biggest brunt of the infield defensive deficiencies this year with a .342 BABIP so far. His skills are still saying that last year’s 2.55 ERA was legitimate and so this year’s 4.38 is way out of line. Tonight is first start with Lindor behind him.
Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) Wong has been an All-Star caliber 2B against right-handers with a .297/.356/.486 line with six homers in 194 PA. The opposing starting pitcher, Phillippe Aumont, has allowed a 1.144 OPS to lefties in 66 career PA at the major league level. He had a 206-point split favoring lefties (.760 OPS) in 65 IP in Triple-A this year.
Andrea LaMont’s Choices
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) may be pitching way above his head at the moment, but that would be the beauty of this Daily League play, right? I love that he is pitching at home against the Brewers, who are 27th in runs scored while on the road, and dead last in walks.
Manny Machado ($3,800–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) is hitting like crazy lately, with four home runs and eight RBI in the past seven days. He goes to the hitter friendly Rogers Center to face Marco Estrada, who he homered against just last month. (May 11)
Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Chris Sale ($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) 3 (22) Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) 3 (7.33) Jacob DeGrom ($10,800–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) 2 (8.33) Rubby de la Rosa ($7,000–San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks) (16) Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (3)
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) 3 (8.66)
Roenis Elias ($7,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) (19)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) 2 (6) Josh Reddick ($3,400–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) (-1.25) Gerardo Parra ($2,500–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (3.25) Carlos Gonzalez ($4000–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (-1) Charlie Blackmon ($3,900–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (8.5)
Chris Davis ($3,400–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) (1) Joey Votto ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) (2.5) Manny Machado ($3,800–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) 3 (6.5) Ben Paulson ($3,100—Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (7.75) Miguel Cabrera ($5,400–Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees) (1.5)
Stephen Vogt ($3,300–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) (11.5) Carlos Beltran ($2,300–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) (.25)
On a night when many of baseball’s top hurlers took the mound, David Price led Rick Wolf’s Tout Daily at FanDuel squad to victory. On a night of weak scoring, Wolf’s offense was paced by Jose Abreu, Jacob Realmuto and Martin Prado, for a total 48.75 points.
Ron Shandler finished second, behind the arm off Jaime Garcia, and big contributions from Brian Dozier, Josh Reddick and Joey Butler.
Jeff Boggis led the 34 percent of Tout owners who ponied up for Clayton Kershaw, and finished third with big nights from Mike Trout’s and Pablo Sandoval’s bats.
Only two Touts picked David Price, who finished with 21 points on the night. The second, after Wolf, was Lenny Melnick, who finished fourth.
But perhaps the big story of the night were the 21 percent of owners who built their teams around Felix Hernandez, who ignominiously allowed eight runs while getting just one out, scoring -6.67 points. Fortunately for all, the one out was a strikeout. Of the nine teams that took King Felix, Gene McCaffrey and Craig Mish tied for best score, each ending up with 11.58 points.
After two weeks in Phase 3, week one winner Seth Trachtman remains in first despite not finishing in the money this week, with Derek VanRiper, who finished in the money both weeks, just behind him. For the leaderboard, click here.
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 10 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 2 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Ferdinando DiFino Says
Joe Kelly ($6700–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Since the Red Sox made a change at pitching coach, Joe Kelly has given up more than two earned runs just once in five starts. The strikeouts are a little erratic, but he’ll get a Blue Jays lineup likely without Encarnacion (or with a dinged one) and the price is great for the upside.
Kennys Vargas ($2300–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) Vargas has been solid since his recall and gets to face a lefty tonight in Wandy Rodriguez. In a limited sample size this season, Vargas is hitting .375 and has an .869 OPS.
Scott Swanay Opines
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Was tempted to pick Felix Hernandez based on his match-up with K-prone Astros’ lineup, but opted to spend a bit more and go with the pitcher who’s more likely to get a Win (better offense backing him and facing Odrasimer Despaigne). Also considered Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmermann.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Sure, he’s cooled down after his torrid start, but he’s hitting for a slightly higher average in June than he did in May (.289 vs. .274), and he gets to face Odrasimer Despaigne. $3,400 seems like a bargain.
Gene McCaffrey’s Picks
David Price ($10,900–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) The best SP by a sliver.
Pablo Sandoval ($2,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) If you like to live dangerously.
Doug Anderson’s Favorites
Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) – The King certainly enjoys Safeco as his home ballpark, but he’s got a 1.82 ERA on the road this season. The Astros are tied with the Cubs with 561 strikeouts on the season; 51 more than any other team. Great pitcher? Check. Good matchup for his offense? Check. Opposing team strikes out a ton? Check.
Nelson Cruz ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros)vs. Brett Oberholtzer (LHP) Cruz has hit 14 of his 18 homers this year on the road. Cruz is hitting .472 this year against LHP and .480 against LHP on the road. Cruz is facing a left-handed pitcher on the road tonight. Cruz
has missed a couple games with back spasms, but reportedly sat out Thursday’s game only as a precaution. If he’s in the lineup I’m using him.
Michael Beller’s Thoughts
Danny Salazar (9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) FanDuel makes it awfully hard to build a strong offense around a $12,000 pitcher. All things being equal, Kershaw and Felix are easily the best options on the board. The savings you get by rostering Salazar, however, makes him the pick of the night. The Tigers aren’t necessarily a plus matchup, but Salazar has major strikeout upside regardless of his opponent. Salazar fanned 11 Tigers back in his second start of the year.
Jose Abreu ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Matt Andriese, tonight’s starter for the Rays, has allowed three homers in 20 2/3 innings this season. Abreu has homered in each of his last two games. Tropicana Field may not be the best park for right-handed power, but this is a great matchup for Abreu. His $3,800 price tag is quite attractive, as well.
Ray Murphy’s Law
Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) Last week we had no ace SPs available, this week we are flush with them. My favorite among the aces is Felix Hernandez, due to his matchup. We all know that the Astros are a high-strikeout team. That’s usually balanced by the risk of their power exploding on a given night, but lately that hasn’t been happening: the suddenly-struggling Astros have a team OPS of .630 so far in June. Felix had a blowup two starts ago, but rebounded nicely in his last outing. A double-digit strikeout effort tonight is very much in play.
Nelson Cruz ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) He has cooled a bit recently, which has finally driven his price out of the stratosphere. Assuming he’s back in the lineup tonight after getting dinged earlier in the week, he’s a great play tonight at $3600, facing shaky left-handed Brett Oberholtzer in Houston.
Jeff Boggis’s Studs and a Prayer
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) I’m going with my “studs and prayer” lineup for tonight’s Tout Wars Tout Daily contest on Fan Duel and it all starts with the highest salaried player on Fan Duel tonight. From a season low on May 10th of 5.66 fantasy points, Kershaw has averaged 17.6 fantasy points over his last 5 starts. You also have to look at tonight’s matchup and other available options. I was also looking at King Felix Hernandez, but he faces Houston who ranks 7th in slugging percentage (.407). Kershaw is in pitcher friendly Petco Park at San Diego tonight and the Padres rank 25th in slugging percentage (.375) which was the deal breaker for me with starting Kershaw over Hernandez tonight.
Mike Trout ($5,000–Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels) Trout is a slight discount compared to Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600), Bryce Harper ($5,500), Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200), and Jose Bautista ($5,100). Goldschmidt faces a very tough pitching matchup against Madison Bumgarner. Harper faces a neutral pitching matchup against Mike Fiers. Bautista has a decent matchup against Joe Kelly with a home run, but too much of a small sample size with only 7 at bats. I really wanted to start Stanton in my DFS lineup tonight, but opposing pitcher Kyle Kendrick has pretty much owned Stanton. In 29 at bats, has 1 home run against Kendrick, but has 9 strikeouts and batting .103 against him. Trout is the first player that fits my criteria of being a consistent fantasy points producer in DFS, has a good matchup against an opposing pitcher (Jesse Chavez), is playing at home, and has a decent sample size against the pitcher. In 14 at bats, Trout has 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and is batting .286 versus Jesse Chavez. Nelson Cruz ($3,600) is bargain priced, but with his recent back spasms and out of the lineup the past two days, he may be a game time decision and I can’t take the risk.
Jake Ciely’s Views
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) It’s tough to slot in a pitcher at $12,000, but you have to find a way with Clayton Kershaw. He’s averaging 20.0 FPPG over his last three starts and has 45 Ks in his last 36.0 IP. On top of that, the Padres are actually pretty weak at home with the seventh lowest wRC+ (91) and second worst wOBA (.290). Just to pile on, they also have a 22.5 K% against lefties. Like I said, you have to find a way.
Paul Greco’s Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000-Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) Clayton Kershaw is the obvious pick this week for money games. Over his last three starts all Kershaw has done is average 20 FanDuel points, nine strikeouts and won all three games. It’s going to make your lineup a little weaker but there are cheap value players that can be had today.
Albert Pujols ($3,900-Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels) Since June 1st there hasn’t been a hotter hitter in MLB than Albert Pujols who is batting .378 with six homers. Facing Jesse Chavez and the Oakland A’s tonight, Pujols has batting .438 with a homer and four RBI. The price is perfect for Pujols who is averaging 4.65 FanDuel points over his last 10 games.
Lawr Michaels’ Koan
Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,400–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) Ubaldo seems to be going through one of his really solid “Saberhagenmetrics” periods, meaning a year or so’s worth of excellent starts before a year or so’s worth of crappy ones. Although there are some other really fun sleeper starter choices as well (Mike Fiers, eg).
Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,300–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays)Today there are as many great low end hitting options just as there are a lot of high end pitchers to choose, so the matchups are what matters. And, I am happy to roster Droobs at $2300 when he has a .297-2-4 line against John Danks over 27 at-bats.
Eno Sarris’s Review
Michael Pineda ($9,800–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) There are some great value plays today that are cheaper than Pineda. Chase Anderson and Danny Salazar had my attention, and both are cheaper than Pineda. But both have tough matchups on the bump today. Anderson is up against Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco, and Salazar has David Price in Detroit. Yes, Pineda is on the road, but he’s a great pitcher, and he’s up against Ubaldo Jimenez. I like.
David Ortiz ($2,400–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) vs Drew Hutchison. When David Ortiz costs less than Justin Bour and Garrett Jones, that’s when David Ortiz becomes a value play. He’s facing a righty, and even this year, in a down year, near the end of his career, Ortiz is managing a .277/.383/.508 line that’s 41% better than league average. Drew Hutchison needs his best velocity to be good, and his gas hasn’t always been there for him this year. For $2,400, giddy.
Todd Zola’s Darts
Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) You can throw a dart blind-folded and hit a good option tonight. In this smaller-scale tournament, I don’t feel the need to go out-of-the-box so I’ll use King Felix with some serious whiff upside versus Houston
Mark Trumbo ($2,900–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) To support a high salary pitcher, I need some explosive mid-to-low salary hitters and I like the spot Trumbo is in against Brett Oberholtzer in Minute Maid Park.
Scott Pianowski’s Picks
Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) If you have the guts to dial up a non-star pitcher, Jeff Locke is the second-highest favorite on the card. We love you, Phillies.
Evan Longoria ($3,100–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) John Danks should have a target on his back, a weak lefty you can stack against. Evan Longoria has been annoyingly-overrated for years, but you like him in the platoon edge.
Charlie Wiegert, the Godfather of Fantasy Sports’ Horse Head
My first thought, based on how my selections have been lately, is the best advise I can give you is to NOT use my selections. Some kind of wicked curse has been placed on me! But I don’t believe in curses, and the law of averages is on my side, I’m due!
Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) The safe way to go tonight would be to take one of the many elite pitchers going tonight, there’s at five that should earn 15 points. But I’m going with a long shot. While he has not been impressive lately, his track record at home and against the Philles is impressive. Locke has a 3.52 ERA at home compared to 8.37 on the road, and has a 1.35 ERA ve the Phillies. And the Phillies are starting Kevin Correia, who just signed a deal this week. given the Phillies offense has major league lows of 3.18 runs and 0.59 homers, this give Locke an extra chance for a good performance.
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,500–Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins) So with the money I save going with Locke, I can get a few better hitters than most teams will have going with the studs tonight. I’m looking at the Colorado vs Miami game to have at least 10 runs, so I’m rostering Tulo, LeMahieu, Ozuna and Realmuto hoping they all have good nights. It’s probably a better roster to use in tournament play, but I’m hoping for the blind squirrel to find the nut tonight!
Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge
Danny Salazar ($9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) Inside Edge has him ranked below Kershaw, Felix and Price, but above Cueto and Bumgarner in tonight’s pitcher-heavy slate, allowing you to stay below five figures.
Jake Elmore ($2,200–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Inside Edge says he’s a good bargain-basement “shortstop” (in actuality, he’s played almost everywhere but this season) if you need salary breathing room elsewhere.
Brian Walton’s Thoughts
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) On the mound, I like Clayton Kershaw at San Diego, but who doesn’t? In nine career starts at Petco Park, the Dodgers’ ace has a 2.22 ERA, 0.988 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. The price is high, but so should be the return.
Xander Bogaerts ($2,500–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) The Red Sox have made a number of questionable personnel decisions in recent years, but signing Xander Bogaerts is not among them. Since May 31, the shortstop is 17-for-40 (.425) with six RBI. Friday night, he draws Drew Hutchison at Fenway, where he is batting .333 on the season. Bogaerts is a nice bargain at $2500.
Al Melchior’s Mind
Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Though his ERA isn’t showing it, Hutchison has come a long way this year, increasing his ground ball rate and doing a good job against left-handed hitters. We’ve seen the fruits of his progress in his last three starts, which have produced a 2.18 ERA, 16 strikeouts, one walk and a .306 opponents’ slugging percentage.
Robinson Chirinos ($2,600–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers)UPDATE: Is not in tonight’s lineup!
Paul Sporer’s Puppies
Madison Bumgarner ($10600–Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants) After a couple days of rough pitching, we’re star-loaded today and several of them are very enticing options, but I prefer Bumgarner. He’s the cheapest of the four $10+ K aces and while he is coming off of a 5 ER outing, he did log 11 Ks in that same game. He has been alright in two outings against ARI, going seven in both, but the Ks have been underwhelming with just 7 in the 14 innings. His 11% Swinging Strike rate matches what he’s done the last two years and he still has a pair of 10+ K outings so there’s no reason to believe he can’t drop a big K game on Arizona.
Gregory Polanco ($3000–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) Polanco has been underwhelming overall, but that’s built into the price. When he does produce, it’s been against righties (.725 OPS, compared to .385 v. LH). He gets Kevin Correia in his 2015 debut. Correia doesn’t have much of a platoon split, but he’s pretty poor against both sides and his performance v. LH has really faltered in the last two years with .806 and .837 OPS totals. Polanco has the power-speed capability that gives him big potential, especially at 3K.
Phil Hertz’s Salve
Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) Drew Hutchison has been pitching better than his surface stats would indicate and has been pitching very well the last month. Toronto’s hot; the Red Sox not so much.
Jose Abreu ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) Is bargain priced, especially considering he’s facing rookie Matt Andriese, who has yet to pitch into the fifth inning in his MLB career.
Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Joe Kelly ($6700–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (5) Clayton Kershaw ($12,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) 5 (16.66)
David Price ($10,900–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) 2 (21) Felix Hernandez ($11,800–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) 4 (-6.67) Danny Salazar (9,100–Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers) 3 (10)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,400–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) (12) Michael Pineda ($9,800–New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles) (1.33) Jeff Locke ($6,900––Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) 2 (8)
Drew Hutchinson ($8,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) 2 (-2.67) Madison Bumgarner ($10600–Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants) (14)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Kennys Vargas ($2300–Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers) (-1) Adrian Gonzalez ($3,400–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres) (1.25)
Pablo Sandoval ($2,200–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (6) Nelson Cruz ($3,600–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) 2 (1.5) Jose Abreu ($3,800–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) 2 (7.5) Mike Trout ($5,000–Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels) (10) Albert Pujols ($3,900-Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels) (2.25)
David Ortiz ($2,400–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (5.5) Mark Trumbo ($2,900–Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros) (-1) Evan Longoria ($3,100–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) 2 (1.25)
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,500–Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins) (.25)
Jake Elmore ($2,200–Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays) (2.5)
Neil Walker ($2,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) 2 (-.25)
Andre Ethier ($2,900–Los Angeles Dodgers at San Dego Padres) (2.5) Xander Bogaerts ($2,500–Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox) (4.25)
Gregory Polanco ($3000–Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates) (-1.75)
Seth Trachtman got only seven points from his pitcher, Charlie Morton, in Friday night’s Tout Daily contest, but an excellent offense across the board added up to a win in Week 1 of Phase 3 of the contest.
Even if Morton hadn’t earned the win in a wild game in Atlanta, Trachtman would have prevailed, behind huge games from Adam Jones and AJ Pollock, and solid performances from Jose Bautista, Paul Goldschmidt, Dustin Pedroia and Will Middlebrooks. Only Salvador Perez on his team failed to earn at least three points.
The next three teams, Paul Greco, Michael Beller and Andy Behrens all rostered favorite Jake Odorizzi for the evening, but their plans were dashed when he was removed after four and a third innings with an oblique strain. All three also had Adam Jones on their teams.
Trachtman takes the lead in Phase 3 of the five phase contest. Each Phase is four weeks. The three teams with the highest scores for the four weeks combined will earn tickets to the August 28th final, in which 15 teams will vie for $2,000 in prizes.
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 9 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 1 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Jeff Boggis Predicts
Brett Anderson ($6,700–St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers)What? Brett Anderson is still in the major leagues? Not only is he back, but through 55 innings pitched, he has 2 wins, an ERA of 3.25, and WHIP of 1.32, and a K/BB ratio of 39/14. In his last 5 starts, he has averaged 9.8 fantasy points on Fan Duel. I believe that Anderson’s $6,700 is coming at a discounted price due to his back tightness from May 25th, but he pitched well, experiencing no back issues in his next outing on May 31. With a less than stellar selection of starting pitchers tonight, why not spend your salary cap money on hitting and take a calculated risk with Brett Anderson tonight? Tonight’s Projection: 7 IP, 6K, 2 ER, 0 W = 11 Fantasy Points
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks)I really wanted to go here with Giancarlo Stanton, but there is a 45% chance of rain tonight at Colorado, paired with a late game start, and I can’t take that big of a risk. Instead, I will go with Paul Goldschmidt and pay up on the premium that I saved by starting Brett Anderson as my starting pitcher. Goldschmidt is on a tear and over the last 7 days, he has a .480 batting average, 4 home runs, 7 RBIs, and 7 runs scored. He is at home and faces a weak Met’s pitcher in Jonathon Niese. If you are looking for a value pick, then start Jose Abreu ($3,700) at home versus Detroit’s Kyle Ryan.
Jeff Erickson’s Picks
Rays at Orioles 8/25/14
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) This is a tough pitcher’s slate, as none of the aces are going and most of the best alternatives are on the road. I’ll use Odorizzi against a Mariners lineup that has really scuffled this week, and hope that he gets better run support than he has in most of his outings. I was tempted to go with Tim Lincecum against the Phillies, but he’s on the road and only $100 cheaper.
Joey Butler ($3,000–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) While he is no longer a bargain basement guy, Butler remains cheap enough to be an automatic start against left-handers, allowing me to invest in an expensive hitter like Giancarlo Stanton in Coors Field (currently only at 51% chance of rain – that’s almost a sunny forecast!).
Todd Zola Says
Edinson Volquez ($8,400–Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals) On a slate where Jake Odorizzi is the safest option, you may as well swing for the fences. The Royals are the biggest favorite on the board and the run total is among the lowest on the ledger. Volquez has strikeout upside though the Rangers are average in terms of strikeouts versus right-handers.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) You’re not going to need to spend on an arm so you can go for a top bat and it doesn’t get any better than Goldie facing Jon Niese. Niese has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four outings, serving up a least one homer in each (eight for the season in just 57 frames).
Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge
Michael Cuddyer ($2,700–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) Inside Edge says high output/low salary tonight against Jeremy Hellickson.
Williams Perez ($5,800–Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves)With no stud starters tonight, IE says Perez is the second-best choice on the board. And he costs $100 more than Bryce Harper.
Lawr Michaels’ Revelations
Aaron Sanchez ($6,800–Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays) In a day of generally crappy pitching, I am buying as low as is reasonable with Sanchez, figuring he can whiff some swing happy Astros and hang on for six decent innings.
Avasail Garcia ($2,500–Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox) Again, somewhat under the radar, but he kicks it against lefties and I think Kyle Ryan makes an appropriate victim. DPed and Hanley look equally tasty versus the struggling Kazmir.
Eno Sarris’s Notes
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) In the past, I may have emphasized the Odorizzi’s splitter negates the platoon advantage well, so the lefties in Seattle’s lineup might be neutralized, leaving one big righty to get past. But even with Mark Trumbo in the mix, Odorizzi won’t worry too much about this matchup. The new hybrid cutter/slider — yes, it’s a slutter — gives him a weapon against righties that he was missing. Odorizzi is a top pitcher in a good park against a meh lineup, and he’s not one of the two most expensive pitchers on a tough day for pitching. Giddyap.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) Sometimes, the big boys are worth the money. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera have the platoon advantage (against Jon Niese and Jose Quintana, respectively) in nice parks tonight (Arizona and Chicago respectively), but it’s Goldschmidt that has rocked curveballs most of his career (judging by FanGraphs’ pitch type weights, while Cabrera’s work against them has been more modest. Add in the fact that Goldschmidt is at home, and all batters fare better in their home environs, and he seems like today’s rock solid pick.
Michael Beller Says
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) I’m betting a lot of people go cheap on pitching with the generally weak options on Friday. Odorizzi, who just held the Mariners to one earned run and fanned seven in seven innings last week, is well worth the $8,600.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) This doesn’t really require an explanation, but any time one of the best hitters in the league is also one of the hottest hitters, he needs to be in your lineup.
Ray Murphy Likes
Wade Miley ($7,000–Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox)On a day with no “safe” options for the mound, you can turn it around and look and see which risky pitcher has the best matchup. At BaseballHQ, we have a tool called Pure Quality Starts that rates each SP outing on a scale of 0-5. Among tonight’s matchups, the “softest” for any scheduled starter is Wade Miley ($7000) against the A’s: against LHPs on the road, the A’s offense has allowed opposing pitchers to post an average PQS score of 4.0 (i.e. a very good outing). Put another way, the A’s have a .625 OPS against lefties (.739 vR), and a .698 OPS on the road (.724 at home). Miley gets the better end of both of those splits tonight.
Wil Venable ($2,400–San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds) A dearth of top-end pitching tonight means that hitting options will be abundant. Even with a cheap pitcher like Miley, a cheap hitter or two can really open up some options in the rest of your lineup. A favorite budget-hitter of mine tonight is Wil Venable who checks every box you want: he’s batting leadoff, with the platoon advantage, against a shaky SP in Raisel Iglesias, in a hitter-friendly balllpark. I’ll take that every night.
Peter Kreutzer Thinks
Tsuyoshi Wada ($6,700–Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals) has been striking guys out since his return from the DL but has yet to score a win. This is a rematch of a Chicago game 10 days ago that Tanner Roark won 2-1, and the Nats have struggled to score runs since. Ks, cheapness, and a chance to win make Wada a good bet on a tough night for pitching picks.
Charlie Blackmon ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies) has the platoon advantage in Colorado. Nuff said! Unless it rains too much.
Doug Anderson Values
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) He’s not been quite as good on the road, but Seattle ranks 24th in the Majors in runs scored at home. On a day like today, there’s something to be said for safety, even in a tournament.
Jose Abreu ($3,700–Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox) Abreu is a .331 career hitter vs. LHP. Kyle Ryan has had 4.00-plus ERAs in three of his five minor league seasons. The Cell is a great hitter’s park. I’m taking Abreu at a reduced price and will spend it elsewhere.
Paul Greco Writes
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) Not a single pitcher tonight over $10K means, find the best option. Tonight, I’m rolling with Jake Ordorizzi against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are losers of five straight and are averaging seven strikeouts per game over those five loses. I’m going to take the points here with Ordorizzi and hope the Rays stay hot, winners of four out of their last five games.
Dustin Pedroia ($3,200–Oakland A’s at Boston RedSox) is hitting 87 points better at home (.351/.264) than on the road. He’s also facing a lefty in Scott Kazmir who he’s enjoyed tremendous success against in his career (.475). Since May 21 Pedroia is batting .380 with three homers.
Gene McCaffrey Cracks
Williams Perez ($5,800–Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves) Lots of bad pitching bets, lots of dynamite hitter matchups, I’m going to roll the dice and let the chips fall with Williams Perez on the hill.
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,800–Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies) For hitters, there might be five who pop two HRs and one of the better bets to do that is Tulo.
Scott Pianowski Plays
Billy Hamilton ($3,300–San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds) and Brandon Phillips ($3,300–San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds) As good as Tyson Ross is, he’s far and away the biggest stolen-base giveaway in the league. Someone is running in Cincinnati tonight.
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) Consistency is one of the most underrated aspects of a pitcher’s profile. Odorizzi hasn’t had a blowup start yet, and he’s worked six innings or more in every turn.
From the Godfather of Fantasy Sports, Charlie Wiegert
Williams Perez ($5,800–Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves) Long shot time! There’s no pitcher I really like tonight, so I’d rather spend my money on hitters. Perez is coming off a good last outing vs the Giants, has averaged almost a strike per inning, and I’m projecting his home start against Pittsburgh should produce 14 points.
Josh Donaldson ($4,900–Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays) Big money going on Toronto’s 3B Donaldson, who has 6 HRs in his last 8 games, 4 in his last three in the Rogers Centre. Hopefully he takes Houston starter Roberto Hernandez deep tonight in what should be a high scoring affair North of the border. I’m also targeting Miami hitters against Eddie Butler at Colorado. Butler has an over 5 ERA at night at home, with left-handed hitters raking .333 against him.
Phil Hertz rules
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) has had no disastrous starts this year and a number of very good to excellent starts. Pitching Seattle makes him a safe choice with good upside.
Yasmany Tomas ($3,000–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) hasn’t hit for much power, but he has hit. He gets a struggling and perhaps injured Jon Niese in a very good hitters park.
Scott Swanay votes
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) You can throw the names of the top half dozen options in a hat and pick one this week, but I’ll go with Odorizzi. His K/9 is lower than some of the other options I considered (Martinez, Ross, Kazmir), but I’ll go with him because he’s facing a strikeout-prone, offensively-challenged team that becomes even more so with the addition of the newly-acquired Mark Trumbo to that lineup.
Eric Hosmer ($3,500–Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals) Based on a cursory glance at historical results from this weekly contest, it appears that RBIs may be the hitting category with the strongest correlation with overall hitter points. So, I’ll go with a middle-of-the-order bat who should get several RBI opportunities as his team squares off against Texas rookie Chi Chi Gonzalez.
Brian Walton’s selections
Tyson Ross ($9,000–San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds) has a great matchup Friday night against Cincinnati. In 25 career innings against them, the Padres starter allowed just two runs on 12 hits for an ERA of 0.72. Reds batters have managed a collective .145 batting average against him.
Brandon Belt ($3,600–San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies) has never faced pitcher Jerome Williams, but last month in his seven starts, hitters smoked the Phillies right-hander to the tune of a 6.62 ERA. This season, Belt has seven home runs, 22 RBI and a .994 OPS against right-handed pitching, so what could possibly go wrong for Williams?
Al Melchior opines
Jake Odorizzi ($8600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) Odorizzi seems to have gotten past his control and long ball issues, and with an 11.2 percent whiff rate, he has some strikeout potential that hasn’t been fully tapped this season. Even with Mark Trumbo, the Mariners lineup represents a good matchup and Safeco Field is a favorable venue.
Justin Upton ($4000–San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds) With Upton facing Jon Moscot in his major league debut, it’s hard to find a more enticing hitter. Moscot is a contact pitcher with flyball tendencies who will be toiling in the Reds’ bandbox of a ballpark. Upton is slugging .510 against flyball pitchers this season, which is not far above his .487 career mark against flyballers. As Tony Robbins likes to say, “Yumbo!”.
Paul Sporer likes
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) Pitching is tough today because there just aren’t any HIGH caliber names. There are some solid ones like Odorizzi, but no unquestioned studs. I think Odorizzi is a solid option. He has a pretty high floor as he hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any outing this year. His Ks has dipped from last year, but the results are much better (4.13 to 2.61 ERA) so it’s been a worthy trade-off. The Ms have some punch in their lineup, but they are in the bottom 10 of wRC+ v. righties this year.
Preston Tucker ($2,900–Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays) Aaron Sanchez has a 1.013 OPS lefties with a 12% K rate and 17% BB rate. Tucker has emerged into the three-hole of that lineup, too, and they’re headed to Rogers Centre. Best part is that Tucker hasn’t really shown a platoon split in either of the last two seasons so he’s not even super susceptible to lefty RPs later in the game.
Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Brett Anderson ($6,700–St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers) (10.66) Jake Odorizzi ($8,600–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) 13 (8.33) Edinson Volquez ($8,400–Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals) (9.33) Williams Perez ($5,800–Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves) 3 (6)
Aaron Sanchez ($6,800–Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays) (14) Wade Miley ($7,000–Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox) (15.33) Tsuyoshi Wada ($6,700–Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals) (-.34) Tyson Ross ($9,000–San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds) (14)
Tanner Roark ($5,600–Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals) (11.66)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) 4 (6.5) Joey Butler ($3,000–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) (2.5) Michael Cuddyer ($2,700–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) (5.25) Avasail Garcia ($2,500–Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox) (7.25)
Ben Paulsen ($3,300–Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies) (.25)
Wil Venable ($2,400–San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds) (6.25) Charlie Blackmon ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies) (3) Jose Abreu ($3,700–Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox) (3.25) Dustin Pedroia ($3,200–Oakland A’s at Boston Red Sox) (5.75) Troy Tulowitzki ($4,800–Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies) (4.75) Billy Hamilton ($3,300–San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds) (1.25) Brandon Phillips ($3,300–San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds) (1.5) Lucas Duda ($3,800–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) (.25) Josh Donaldson ($4,900–Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays) (1.25) Seven Souza ($3,700–Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners) (-1) Yasmany Tomas ($3,000–New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks) (3.75) Eric Hosmer ($3,500–Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals) (.5) Brandon Belt ($3,600–San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies) (2.25) Justin Upton ($4,000–San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds) (1.25) Manny Machado ($3,300–Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians) (-1) Preston Tucker ($2,900–Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays) (-1)
Which brings us to Tim McCullough, who won Phase 3 Week 4, with 50.25 points. This was his second Top 10 finish in #toutdaily’s 12 weeks.
