Tout Table: A Mock of Our Own

Thanks to the voluntary efforts of 15 Touts, we have a six-round mock draft to discuss. Even though Tout Wars uses OBP instead of batting average, the participants were asked to draft a standard 5×5 leagues, assuming a seven-man reserve with FAAB. Here are the mockers, in order of selection:

1. Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman)

2. Sky Dombroske (Fantistics Insider Baseball, @SkyDombroske)

3. Joe Sheehan (Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan)

4. DJ Short (NBC Sports, @djshort)

5. Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643)

6. Seth Trachtman (SethRoto.com, Yardbarker, @sethroto)

7. Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier)

8. Justin Mason (Friends With Fantasy Benefits, @JustinMasonFWFB)

9. Joe Gallina (Fantasy Alarm, @joegallina)

10. Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski)

11. Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano)

12. Frank Stampfl (SportsGrid, RotoExperts, @Roto_Frank)

13. Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9)

14. Tim McLeod (Prospect361, @RunTMcP361)

15. Andy Andres (BaseballHQ, @sabermetrics101)

Here is the draft (right-click to enlarge in a separate tab):

Rotoworld analyzed the mock draft on a podcast, with D.J. Short, Eric Samulski, and guest Scott Pianowski.

Here are the comments from the Touts.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo/Rotowire, @FredZinkieMLB): I would say that this is a surprise, but it’s worth noting that we have less clarity on the first round than I remember in recent seasons. It should not surprise us if next year we see a player picked 12th in one draft and 3rd in another. Once we get past Acuna, there are 10 or more names that could be pulled out of a hat.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): A little bemused by the top-3 catchers going 50-61-75. Not saying it’s wrong, but it is quite different from last season. Only 4 SPs in the first two rounds was interesting. Oneil Cruz 4-10 (54) is optimistic about Cruz’s recovery. Optimism likewise on Michael’s Alcantara pick at 6-9 (84), given the very real risk that Alcantara’s “flexor tendon” injury will be a precursor to TJS. I really though Justion M got a steal (no pun intended) with CJ Abrams at 5-8 (68); I thought he might go a little earlier. Closers also curious: After all the talk about grabbing the top guys early, the first out here wasn’t til 3-13 (43), and it was Edwin Diaz, who didn’t throw a pitch in 2023! The run started at 4-8 (53) and six more went from Clasé at 4-12 (57) through Doval at 5-14 (74). I’ll be curious to see what the managers who didn’t get in on the run do for saves later on.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): I definitely agree with Zinkie on the uncertain nature of the first round beyond Acuna. We can make reasonable arguments for maybe a dozen players to be taken with picks 2-5. I also feel as if Trea Turner is working his way back in the first round–and possibly the first half of the first round. As of this writing, he’s 11 for his last 23 with four homers and two steals. He’s headed for a 30-30 season (or awfully close to it) and he managed to save his batting average, too.

Jeff Barton (Scoresheet Baseball, @JeffScoresheet): Gotta like Dombroske’s OF – Julio Rodrigues, Harper and Trout. Trout has been really hurt by injuries in recent seasons, but sure seems like a great ‘gamble’ in round 5. And seeing Gausman go in round 2 is yet another reminder of how foolish the Giants (my favorite team) were to let him go before the 2022 season.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): After the volatility with starting pitching this year I’m a little surprised Framber Valdez lasted as long as he did – he’s been pretty consistent over the past 3 seasons, and the Astros figure to be among the league’s better offenses again next year. And I’m probably succumbing to recency bias, but I like both Trea Turner and Freddy Peralta to be drafted higher than they were here for a 15-teamer. Also, somewhat surprised that Judge didn’t go a bit sooner and Ohtani didn’t go a bit later.

Alan Harrison (The Fantasy Fix, @TheFantasyFix): Again, piggybacking on Fred’s initial thoughts, lots of coin flip bats following Acuña in the first round. I don’t hate the arms in the fourth or fifth round in this draft which leads me to believe I may be more inclined to stack a combination of infield/outfield bats early on and add arms periodically throughout the draft to build a staff.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, @jeffwzimmerman): None, all 90 players drafted are good and there seems to be a nice distribution of positions. The key now is to find out what positions and/or stats can’t be filled later in drafts and prioritize those positions and/or stats with these known good talents.

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): When you draft a hitter in the first round, you should also love the offense that he’s tied to. Jose Ramirez is starting the back nine of his career and I hate what’s around him in Cleveland. I wouldn’t consider him in the Top 10-12 picks. (I also agree with the others who suggest Trea Turner is headed back to the first round.)

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): The changing of the starting pitching guard is now complete. With Strider the 1st SP off the board and followed in subsequent round by pitchers like Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, and George Kirby, the SP landscape has received a facelift.

Brad Johnson (Patreon BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Not to be flippant, but it looks like a lot of very good players were taken. I don’t have much to say about this draft – everybody is going to be very happy about their 6-10 rounds next season. I’d love to see how the current fantasy landscape comps to past years because it sure feels like there are more star performers than I can ever remember. The draft order (early rounds) will be affected more by NFBC usage trends than player quality. I think we’ll see pitchers of both types pushed forward as compared to this draft.

Matt Williams (The Game Day, @MattWi77iams): I think the first round, other than Acuña is an interesting surprise in terms of likely parity. There does not seem to be a set “order” like there typically would. I feel like we could see the biggest disparity between drafts in the first round than we have in a long time.

Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier): Jazz Chisholm in the 4th round is a surprise to me simply because he seems to be fairly brittle physically. He’s a dynamite talent with endless charisma, but that doesn’t mean much if he’s rarely available to play on the diamond. Also, Ha Seong Kim in the 4th round is cheap! He was an excellent player before he came to MLB who appeared to have a challenging transition in his first season, which is not unheard of for players who come over from the KBO and Japan. His peripherals and his talent combine to make him most likely a 2nd rounder at least in terms of production. I think by the time draft season rolls around next February, Kim will be a top 25 selection at worst.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotoBuzzGuy): That we are still giving Spencer Strider first-round love despite the collapses that occur towards the end of each half. That any starting pitchers are getting first-round love actually. Welcome back to the days where you can wait on pitching and need to boost that offense!

Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): I was a little surprised about the number of closers that were drafted in this six-round exercise, and also thought that starting pitching would go a little earlier. There are a few injury risks on here as well, Edwin Diaz, Jazz, O’Neil Cruz but overall, I thought it was a fine job by the drafters!

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): This was a standard 5×5 draft, but when Tout Wars (an OBP league) has its 2024 drafts, I expect Adley Rutschman to go earlier. Seems his combination of position and OBP is something that drafters in on-base formats will push higher in 2024.

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS): Given the depth and upside provided in the mid-late rounds at the catcher position I can’t see myself taking one inside the top 75 and seeing three was a big surprise. We also have seen a lot of breakout seasons from older players and figuring out if they are worth a top 100 pick will be interesting (Lane Thomas and Justin Steele the best examples of this.).

Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano): I think Abrams was a great pick where Justin took him, great value at that point and I was surprised he lasted that long. Also, I was very surprised I was able to get him that far, people are underestimating him.

Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): Surprised/not surprised people are still drafting starting pitching high. Pitchers can be as fickle as they are and people continue to go back to them year after year. You can see on the Razzball Player Rater, starters between picks 100-200 last year were the most valuable crop of starters, and it’s like this every year. Yet — again with some stank — YET! people draft starters high every year. Like clockwork on a broken clock that’s right twice a day.

Eric Samulski (Rotoballer, @SamskiNYC): I think Ohtani going in the first is a bit of a surprise. He’s very likely to have TJ in the off-season and even if he makes a Bryce Harper type of recovery, you’re talking about missing 1-2 months of the season and not having his typical power right when he comes back. As a UT-only, I don’t see how he can be a first-round pick due to all of that

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Justin Steele in the 6th–bunch of non-believers!!! Andy A–why do you hate pitchers? 🙂

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): I judge these premature exercises by looking for outliers. First, players whose 2023 breakouts alone were enough to jump them into early rounds. I see one in the first round, one in the second round, one in the third, and more and more as we go deeper into the draft. Those are high-risk speculations based on no track record other than 2023. I won’t own those guys – you only get one shot at early round cornerstone players. The flipside – players who’s disappointing 2023 pushed them out of these early ADPs. Poor Trea Turner! Even Goldy in the 4th round seems like some built-in profit. We are so reactive! Ya gotta fight recency bias.

Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643): Sure, taking Strider with the fifth overall pick seems high but I liked how my next few rounds went. Unless Strider gets injured (which could happen!) he should easily finish with the most strikeouts next year. At least at the start of draft season the talk is to push down starting pitching so…zig while others zag!

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): When I look at early drafts, mocks or otherwise, I care about the relative nature of the picks, not the absolute. Strider went fifth. I could care less. What interests me is he was considered the top starter. To be honest, I’m not likely to take a pitcher first, regardless of who is at the top, so I focus more on the later rounds. My motto is “draft the pitcher, not the round.” I’ll use some early drafts to set a target tier for my SP1. Sure, there will be an ADP ballparking when they’ll be available, but if the draft flow dictates jumping the ADP to get someone in my tier, I’ll do it. Conversely, if the flow indicates I can wait past the ADP, I’ll resist the temptation to take someone “better” than my tier and patiently wait until my tier is being drafted. Starting pitcher and closer are the obvious targets of this approach, though it can be applied to catchers, and last season, third baseman. In the past, middle infielders fit the mold.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): It’s interesting to see the premier 2B pushed up equal to or even ahead of some of the premier 3B options, I think in previous years that was a little more tilted to the 3B side of the equation. Also, I thought starting pitching would be pushed up more here given how scarce it’s been and how difficult it’s been to have truly “set and forget” options at SP this year. So, I’ll be keeping an eye on drafts going forward to see if you can still get great options like Eury, Gilbert, Snell and Steele in the 5th/6th as draft season really picks up. Those look like incredible deals relative to pitching needs this season.

Kev Mahserejian (Fox Sports, @RotoSurgeon): Seeing Edwin Diaz drafted in Round 3 is somewhat baffling. The talent at full strength is undeniable but severe knee injuries are no joke, especially to his right/plant leg. Even with plenty of time between surgery and next season, the rehab process cannot fully guarantee his comfort on that leg mentally and/or physically. Several RPs afterwards are fair to also consider “elite” talents such as Josh Hader, Camilo Doval, and Devin Williams yet they’re available a full round if not more later despite stellar 2023 seasons. Projecting forward on Diaz is a massive unknown for my money.

Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): I found it hard to be as confident as I wanted to be in the starting pitchers after the first couple rounds. That might be an inherent feature of drafting this early, but I think it’s a reflection of the fact that there’s been a lot of turnover on the mound this year with several top names getting old or injured. It also may reflect that offense jumped this year, so pitching numbers which looked like they merited an eighth-round selection this year might deserve a sixth-round pick next season. It might take a draft or two to reset those outdated intuitions.

Chris Towers (CBS Fantasy, @CTowersCBS): Oneil Cruz at 54th overall is pretty fascinating, seeing as it’s about two rounds higher than he was going last season. I don’t necessarily think it’s the wrong place to take him, but it’s awfully aggressive for a guy who has only played nine games this season. On the other hand, it might end up being a steal, given that Elly De La Cruz has many of the same strengths and weaknesses, and the one place he really looks like he has an edge on Cruz is SB — and we didn’t get to see what Cruz could do in this new environment. That’s going to be a fascinating one to watch.

Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9): I had zero plans on taking so much pitching, but they fell into my wheelhouse, which may be a result of where I selected in this “mock”. In a money draft, I smash Yordan in the second, or even take Bryce Harper with 1B eligibility now, but selected Albies so I was out of my comfort zone. I planned on taking Triston Casas or Nolan Jones in the seventh. Getting Yordan sets a template of power. And Kev, Díaz already hitting high 90’s in side sessions, with Félix’s unknown UCL, the SwStr% dip by Hader and Doval, I am ok doing this, but each draft remains different. This exercise helps create what’s comfortable, what is not. But noting the ratio volatility in ME’s this year, those who never take pitching will be left behind.

Anthony Perri (Fantistics, @Anthony_Perri): The impact that MLB made in shortening the bases, eliminating the shift (and shortening the time between pitches?), had a measurable effect on starting pitchers in 2022. I think that was wisely reflected in this Tout primer draft, only FOUR starting pitchers in first 2 rounds!

Justin Mason (Friends With Fantasy Benefits, @JustinMasonFWFB): As a participant, I was surprised how deep the top tiers of talent there appear to be especially in pitching. I’m sure it will thin out as we lose pitchers in spring training but the pool feels pretty decent at the top in spite of losing a lot to injuries this year

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of September 11

You can’t take it with you, but the Touts can be penalized FAAB next season if they finish below a set threshold of points. Some of these bids are for teams competing for the title, while others are doing what they can to minimize, or avoid, the FAAB penalty.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
AWells, NYY Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 77
EValdez, Bos Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 31
NLoftin, KC Joe Sheehan 21
EOlivares, KC Joe Sheehan 16
KRosenberg, LAA Jeff Erickson 10
BShaw, CWS Jeff Erickson 10
RPinto, TB Jason Collette 8
HNeris, Hou Doug Dennis 8
SFujinami, Bal Doug Dennis 2
BFrancis, Tor Doug Dennis 2
GJax, Min Andy Andres 0
JSmith, Tex Andy Andres 0
SHuff, Tex Patrick Davitt 0
CMarlowe, Sea Patrick Davitt 0
KSmith, Oak Mike Podhorzer 0
DJimenez, Oak Larry Schechter 0

National League

Player Team Bid
ECabrera, Mia Peter Kreutzer 33
JLawlar, Ari Erik Halterman 26
AMonasterio, Mil Ian Kahn 11
KWinn, SF Ian Kahn 11
JButto, NYM Ian Kahn 9
RNelson, Ari Ian Kahn 6
ELongoria, Ari Ian Kahn 5
RYarbrough, LAD Todd Zola 3
TMegill, Mil Phil Hertz 3
JStallings, Mia Brian Walton 2
GGallegos, StL Rick Graham 1
ONarvaez, NYM Ian Kahn 1
MAndujar, Pit Tristan H. Cockcroft 1
CSchmitt, SF Rick Graham 1
GHampson, Mia Rick Graham 1
ABarnes, LAD Phil Hertz 0
JHoffman, Phi Phil Hertz 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JLawlar, Ari Nick Pollack 96
ECarter, Tex Brent Hershey 77
RPepiot, LAD Justin Mason 60
NVelazquez, KC Zach Steinhorn 52
LCampusano, SD Brent Hershey 29
TMegill, NYM Bret Sayre 22
JAlu, Was Justin Mason 5
WCastro, Min Jeff Zimmerman 3
CRea, Mil Jeff Zimmerman 1
TMegill, Mil Justin Mason 0
CPoche, TB Scott Swanay 0
KYates, Atl Scott Swanay 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
JLawlar, Ari Adam Ronis 78
MKing, NYY Ryan Bloomfield 52
RPepiot, LAD Scott White 18
LCampusano, SD Scott White 1
JButto, NYM Mike Gianella 1
KRosenberg, LAA Mike Gianella 1
BAbreu, Hou Scott White 0
TWalls, TB Scott White 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
DHudson, StL Ariel Cohen 45
MKing, NYY Greg Jewett 45
CTaylor, LAD Greg Jewett 27
HGoodman, Col Frank Stampfl 3
BDeLaCruz, Mia Frank Stampfl 3
MLiberatore, StL Michael Govier 3
MCanha, Mil Frank Stampfl 2

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
TPham, Ari Dylan White 33
JAbreu, Hou Sara Sanchez 29
JLawlar, Ari Sara Sanchez 27
RPepiot, LAD Andy Behrens 20
NPivetta, Bos Sara Sanchez 17
BDoyle, Col Dylan White 12
TToussaint, CWS Dylan White 3
JMerryweather, ChC Sara Sanchez 2
WCastro, Min Dylan White 2
ABummer, CWS Dylan White 0
ECabrera, Mia Andy Behrens 0
JSuwinski, Pit Matt Trussell 0

Tout Table: A Look at the first 2024 NFBC Draft

Rob DiPietro (@deadpullhitter) and 14 more meatballs (his words, not ours) including a few Touts, drafted the first six rounds of an actual NFBC draft to be played out in 2024. This is a 15-team Draft Championship leagues (50-man rosters with no in-season pickups)

Right click and open in a new tab for a larger view.

The Touts were asked, What is the biggest surprise from the first 2024 NFBC draft? Please share any other observations.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo/Rotowire, @FredZinkieMLB): Eight closers in the first four rounds. I guess the early closer trend is gaining steam. I may choose to zig while others zag next year.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): After pick 34, the floodgates opened on buying pitching in general. Two closers in the *second* round even before that. 49 of the 105 picks were pitchers. I like what Bubba (yay-Bubba–congrats champ!) did with bats in rounds 1-2-3 and then pitchers in 4-5-6, based on selections in this draft. It feels like a team can grab a real counting stats advantage in this draft without even really giving anything up on the pitching side in this way. Finally, my thought on closers is recent memory: Edwin Diaz, Liam Hendriks, now Felix Bautista. Fluke? I sure don’t think so.

Alex Chamberlain (FanGraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): For the sheer number of high-quality rookie arms that debuted this year (like, a historic number of them) I’m surprised that I see virtually none of them in the top-100 picks. It seems to me SP will be similarly loaded like last year (and certainly drafters will get burned badly in some spots), and if it’s running as deep as it appears—while old guys (Scherzer, Verlander) and disappointments (Nola, Urías) get the benefit of the doubt—then I imagine I will find myself waiting awhile for some of the arms after the Sporer-anointed Blob.

Rick Graham (Pitcher List, @IAmRickGraham): To me, it’s the amount of pitching off the board early, specifically closers as 16 of them went in the first 99 picks here. I believe there were on average 8 closers going in to the top 100 picks in most 2023 NFBC drafts, so to see that number double is definitely a surprise. Given the circumstances, I think waiting until that 6th/7th round to take your first closer makes sense as those 16 closers are not too different from each other.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson): I think the starting pitching run begins later in the draft, the earlier that the pool is drafting. By the time we get to March, that “yellow brick road” (H/T DVR) starts up in earnest in the second round. There were only four SPs taken in the first two rounds, and I suspect that number will climb later on.

Jeff Barton (Scoresheet Baseball, @JeffScoresheet): I wonder is the likely Tommy John surgery for Ohtani will sap his power at least somewhat in 2024? Seems like a risky pick for the 2nd pick overall. And I know I will be quite happy next year if I can get Soto in round 4.

Garion Thorne (DraftKings, @GarionThorne): I’m a little shocked to see Elly De La Cruz slip just outside the first round. Obviously there are flaws in De La Cruz’s profile, but his wOBA and OBP are incredibly similar to the numbers produced by Bobby Witt Jr. in 2022 — not to mention his prorated counting stats in home runs and stolen bases. Despite those underwhelming ratios in his rookie campaign, Witt was a consensus first round pick in 2023. De La Cruz has a similar pedigree and arguably a better supporting cast in Cincinnati. I think that ADP rises by February.

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): Max Fried is going far too late. The injury risk is pushing him down, though we see injuries from a vast number of pitchers each year, regardless of history. His stability prior to this season shouldn’t be overlooked, especially with other aces with more damaging histories are going earlier. Throw in the massive Win chance and phenomenal ratios, and Fried should be going in the 4th or 5th. I’d be shocked if we saw a September that brought more haze than clarity.

Sky Dombroske (Fantistics Insider Baseball, @SkyDombroske): Probably Vlad remaining a 2nd-round pick despite barely being a top-15 1B this season. Christian Walker has been almost exactly as valuable over the past two years, yet he went almost 4 rounds later….not sure the 8 years of age difference is quite worth that. Also, as others have stated, 5 more closers going in the top 105 picks than last year’s ADP appears to point to the trend now.

D.J. Short (NBC Sports, @djshort): The pressure to draft a closer en masse is beginning earlier than ever. And if this is where Edwin Díaz is going in the spring, I’m all in. I suspect he will only move up, especially if he makes an appearance or two in September.

Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): As someone who was in this draft (and in the Zoom room), the SP “push down” was more a collective reluctance to take a starter with six weeks left of the season. I agree with Jeff E. that starters will go earlier come March. Since there’s some Edwin Diaz chatter, here’s a fun tidbit from the draft: John Fish said “Diaz” for his 4th round pick; the room replied “which one?”; brother Edwin was taken with the next pick.

Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9): This format always pushes up closers because there’s no in-season pick-ups, but seeing Edwin Díaz being the eighth reliever taken will not happen once the new year hits. Especially if he makes a return this season. For perspective, in March 2023, nine relievers were taken in the first 100 picks in the Draft Champions format, so this followed suit. With Félix Bautista injured, expect Díaz being the first or second reliever off the board once these go live in November and Devin Williams will also rise, especially with a strong postseason.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I always love an early draft board. The first thing I see is that a ton of pitching went in the first seven rounds relative to position player talent and that is really interesting. It’s like all of us have been fighting over pitching on the waiver wire for the last few months and just never want to do that again. I’d be curious to compare it to a March draft to see just the sheer amount of pitching that went off the boards in the first seven rounds v. drafts close to opening day this year. Similarly, it’s interesting to see the priority on catchers pushed down to the fifth round before that mini-run. Will be interesting to see if that persists.

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): Early drafts are lovely, when there’s no real ADP yet and you can just let it fly. I’m not sure Jose Ramirez currently belongs in the Top 10. Early picks should include team buoyancy, and Cleveland can’t check that box. Maybe I’d make an excuse for someone like Aaron Judge, who can be a monster on his own. Ramirez needs some help. Draft into offenses that excite you, at least with those lottery picks.

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): That people are doing a baseball draft in August. Sickos! In all seriousness, seeing 16 closers going in the first 7 rounds after the ROI on closers this year has been rather terrible is surprising.

Eric Cross (FTNFantasy, @EricCross04): This draft looks to be extremely pitcher-heavy, even more than we usually see, and especially with relievers. Only one team had less than three pitchers through the first several rounds. I thought this season would cause 2024 drafts to go the other direction, but I guess not. Also, I was surprised to see Tucker and Soto fall as far as they did and Albies and Turner go as high as they did.

Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643): I know this format pushes up closers but wowza! I was not expecting to see so many go in the first seven rounds. Harper as the 24th overall selected player seems like a steal knowing that he should have 1B eligibility next season. I wonder if he would have been pushed up any if the draft was held now, as he is white-hot at the plate right now.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, @jeffwzimmerman): I’m ignoring the reliever ADP since it’s a draft-and-hold league. These managers can’t add anyone during the season so I understand getting an anchor. I feel any of the first-round hitters from picks 4 to 11 are interchangeable so the key might be figuring out the second and third round targets if a team’s pick can be chosen.

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): How early SP was handled is what stands out. I thought that the gap between the established top SP group and the rest of the SP pool, along with the uptick in offense in MLB generally, would force top tier SP selections higher. IE – Offensive stat pool is deeper, so can ‘afford’ to wait on bats a bit. In short, surprised that there weren’t more drafters following the DuPonte blueprint here (Freeman/Castillo/Gallen/Glasnow). Will be fascinating to watch once these 2024 drafts get cranked up.

Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): It’s going to be fun to see where the ADP for the quartet of shortstops at the start of the second round (Trea Turner, Bo Bichette, Elly Da La Cruz and Corey Seager) ends up settling. They offer very different skillsets and different blends of floor and ceiling, yet they were viewed almost identically overall in this draft. All four could affect their draft stock significantly in September, particularly Turner if he has another month of vintage production and De La Cruz as he establishes just how severe his contact concerns will be moving forward.

Joe Sheehan (Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan): Anybody willing to draft in August for the next season gets my respect, so consider the following in that context. Trea Turner, even conceding the draft was a week ago, is going far too low. His off year is going to end pretty valuable, and I expect he’ll return top-10 value in 2024. I’d take him over Alvarez, Albies, and Carroll (the shoulder scares me) at least.

Andy Andres (BaseballHQ, @sabermetrics101): Seems like a lot of pitching drafted, 13 of 15 teams took at least 3 pitchers (lots of yellow on the image!). I also thought Elly, Kim and McLain were drafted a bit high, would prefer less risk with the 18th, 50th, and 52nd pick. But what a great exercise, thanks Rob and others for doing this!

Adam Ronis (Fantasy Alarm, @AdamRonis): I was surprised to see Mike Trout go 6.1. It’s the right area but I thought he would go in the first four rounds. Interested to see if he rises in early drafts next season.

Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): I understand why it’s done, but I was really surprised to see so many closers go so early. They are all generally volatile (with few exceptions) so it was shocking to see such an emphasis on them in the first few rounds. Pitching in general was really prioritized more so than I have seen in other drafts and formats. It also fascinates me to see how certain players move down draft boards over the years as they age and makes me wonder how long before this next crop of young stars get relegated to the 5th or 6th round.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): MACRO: 47/105 pitchers. MICRO: I’d be scared to take Elly 2R because of contact issue. And I was surprised to any closer go before Gausman.

Scott Chu (Pitcher List, @ifthechufits): Matt McLain’s second half had too many red flags for me to consider him in the first five rounds. First, the strikeout rate continued to push above 30% while his walk rate remained barely above average. Second, his high line drive rate in the second half (north of 25%) is not something we can expect for long, especially considering that he was closer to a 15% line drive hitter in the minors. These two issues almost certainly mean we should expect significant regression in his ratios (something more like a .235-.245 hitter with an average OBP). The home runs may not suffer too much, as his minor league profile suggests those line drives will turn into fly balls, but that will also crush McLain’s ratios. I’m not saying he’s bad, of course – but considering him when Glasnow, Woodruff, and the top-tier catchers are still on the board is not something I could do, especially knowing that Hoerner, Stott, Muncy, Paredes, K. Marte, Arraez, and Gleyber are all on the board and don’t need to be picked for a few more rounds.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I’m shocked to see 2 closers selected in the second round, with the first taken 20th overall. That’s a lot of offensive value being given up in the hopes the closer’s team provides enough save opportunities to earn second round value. I would never pass up a top 20 hitter for a closer, or even a top starting pitcher, and I don’t draft starting pitchers in round 2 normally!

Tim McLeod (PattonandCo, @RunTMcP361): We have relative stability in the bullpen component of our game this year and I’m not surprised to see closers moving up the draft board. Remember when the future of our game was a bullpen-by committee? Even the Rays have avoided that scenario. The million-dollar question is do we see more of the same in 2024 or revert to the spinning “Closer Carousel” and huge turnover. I’m sure not waiting until Round #15 next year to find out, nor will I (hopefully) be armed with a fistful of cash on a Sunday evening in mid-July chasing the JoJo Romero, Carlos Hernandez, and/or Gregory Santos types.

Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier): My tout team is fading, so I don’t know how much credibility I have right now. Still, I was surprised by JoRam falling to 9. That seems like an overreaction to a horrendous offensive season in Cleveland. In addition, Trea Turner not being a first rounder now is a reaction to his difficulties this year, but with steals being more available, maybe his speed attribute doesn’t make his as desirable anymore? I disagree with that because he is still a player who should hit .300 with 30 homer potential in Philly.

Chris Clegg (Pitcher List, @RotoClegg): Like most have said the way closers continue to be pushed up higher and higher each year is wild. I understand in a DC format that having safe closers is important but with 16 going in the top 100 is just crazy to see. Its a volatile position and a lot of these guys may not even have jobs to start the 2024 season. The hitter talent in the top 100 is too good to be taking that many closers, especially in the early rounds.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): Pitching, pitching, pitching, whether closer or starter just flying off the board!!!

Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano): Pablo Lopez’s rank. I think he could be a round 3-4 value and he was picked in round 5 which is interesting.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): Never pay for saves. This draft is heavily skewed towards closers being draft too early. And too many closers being drafted overall.

Brian Entrekin (Fantasy Pros, BaseballHQ, @bdentrek): As someone that participated in the draft I was a bit surprised at the major SP runs waiting till Round 3. In DC formats pitching is gold and usually goes earlier. Says a lot about the glob forming at SP. Also, to the “don’t draft saves” crowd, this is a DC so they always get pushed up and for very good reason.

Joe Gallina (Fantasy Alarm, @joegallina): Maybe I’m a little biased being a Yankee fan and all but I’m surprised Aaron Judge almost made it to the second round. His overall stats are lower than we expected due to the time he missed nursing his toe back to health, but based on his current stats if he played a full season he’d be on pace for another 60 HR season. Juan Soto falling to the third round based on his two-year slump seems right, but Tatis, Jr., who isn’t hitting HRs the way he used too (likely a residual effect from his two wrist surgeries) being drafted ahead of Judge does not.

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of September 4

Labor Day weekend, really? Where did the season go? I blame the pitch clock.

There were a few surprises to pick up in the only leagues this week.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Jason Collette 52
TMay, Oak Andy Andres 14
OPeraza, NYY Patrick Davitt 4
OBasabe, TB Jeff Erickson 1
KParis, LAA Rob Leibowitz 0
AStevenson, Min Mike Podhorzer 0
JLeclerc, Tex Patrick Davitt 0
EClement, Tor Andy Andres 0
CRafaela, Bos Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
SEspinal, Tor Andy Andres 0
AFrazier, Bal Mike Podhorzer 0

National League

Player Team Bid
HRenfroe, Cin Peter Kreutzer 71
HBader, Cin Phil Hertz 69
HGoodman, Col Phil Hertz 31
BBaty, NYM Tristan H. Cockcroft 25
JYoung, Was Peter Kreutzer 23
MBatten, SD Todd Zola 13
BWilson, Mil Peter Kreutzer 3
SReidFoley, NYM Steve Gardner 2
CPhillips, Cin Rick Graham 2
LOrtiz, Pit Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
CFerguson, LAD Derek Carty 0
JPalacios, Pit Derek Carty 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Garion Thorne 429
RMauricio, NYM Zach Steinhorn 138
DSchneider, Tor Scott Chu 105
NSchanuel, LAA Scott Chu 75
MDubon, Hou Scott Chu 65
MHaniger, SF Nick Pollack 35
GArias, Cle Brent Hershey 21
MKing, NYY Kev Mahserejian 12
JHeyward, LAD Bret Sayre 8
DStewart, NYM Kev Mahserejian 6
ZDavies, Ari Bret Sayre 3
DCanzone, Sea Jeff Zimmerman 2
AJackson, Pit Scott Engel 2
YGrandal, CWS Justin Mason 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Seth Trachtman 150
ESheehan, LAD Mike Gianella 22
TBradley, TB Mike Gianella 22
ZDavies, Ari Shelly Verougstraete 12
GCooper, SD Adam Ronis 12
KCalhoun, Cle Adam Ronis 12
KParis, LAA Tim McLeod 4
CPhillips, Cin Mike Gianella 2
YGrandal, CWS Mike Gianella 2
WMiley, Mil Adam Ronis 2

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
MManning, Det Ariel Cohen 33
ZThompson, StL Lauren Auerbach 23
ACobb, SF Sky Dombroske 23
DLeMahieu, NYY Greg Jewett 18
PMeadows, Det Lauren Auerbach 17
JPCrawford, Sea Sky Dombroske 16
JDominguez, NYY Frank Stampfl 13
MTauchman, ChC Greg Jewett 9
ALange, Det Sky Dombroske 9
MCanha, Mil Lauren Auerbach 7
CRafaela, Bos Joe Gallina 3
JMeans, Bal Greg Jewett 3
JWentz, Det Michael Govier 1
MBrantley, Hou Joe Gallina 1
LSeverino, NYY Joe Gallina 0
CWong, Bos Joe Gallina 0
DSolano, Min Greg Jewett 0

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Chris Clegg 89
RMauricio, NYM Chris Clegg 76
KHarrison, SF Chris Clegg 47
ADuvall, Bos Sara Sanchez 42
JWicks, ChC Sara Sanchez 12
JScholtens, CWS Dylan White 11
LRengifo, LAA Dylan White 6
DVines, Atl Brian Entrekin 4
HRyu, Tor Brian Entrekin 4
SLangeliers, Oak Dylan White 4
JRojas, Sea Chris Towers 3
JPCrawford, Sea Sara Sanchez 3
NMartini, Cin Carlos Marcano 1
KCrawford, Bos Carlos Marcano 1
TanScott, Mia Chris Towers 1
DKremer, Bal Brian Entrekin 1

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of August 28

This is the last FAB period of August. Don’t look now but Labor Day is right around the corner. Players continue to emerge to help, and the Touts keep grinding away.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
AChapman, Tex Patrick Davitt 99
PMeadows, Det Larry Schechter 82
LOHoppe, LAA Rob Leibowitz 47
EPereira, NYY Jason Collette 14
XCurry, Cle Jeff Erickson 7
DSchneider, Tor Eric Samulski 7
JLoaisiga, NYY Doug Dennis 6
WAbreu, Bos Jason Collette 5
MFord, Sea Eric Samulski 4
TBradley, TB Jason Collette 3
AMarsh, KC Jeff Erickson 0
JKarinchak, Cle Andy Andres 0
KLee, CWS Mike Podhorzer 0
CThielbar, Min Patrick Davitt 0
KIsbel, KC Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
MBeaty, KC Mike Podhorzer 0

National League

Player Team Bid
CKieboom, Was Rick Graham 84
JWicks, ChC Rick Graham 84
MBusch, LAD Grey Albright 77
NMartini, Cin Phil Hertz 67
JAdon, Was Phil Hertz 24
RPalacios, StL Peter Kreutzer 14
PDeJong, SF Rick Graham 14
JShuster, Atl Ian Kahn 13
RAdams, Was Phil Hertz 11
MHaniger, SF Phil Hertz 11
RWalker, SF Peter Kreutzer 8
TBeck, SF Todd Zola 3
CSchmitt, SF Erik Halterman 1
SWilson, SD Derek Carty 0
BDoyle, Col Derek Carty 0
CHolderman, Pit Derek Carty 0
JMerryweather, ChC Steve Gardner 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
YCano, Bal Bret Sayre 171
PMeadows, Det Scott Pianowski 120
JWicks, ChC Garion Thorne 115
GCanning, LAA Scott Pianowski 88
BRooker, Oak Scott Swanay 65
PReyes, Bos Nick Pollack 36
RTellez, Mil Zach Steinhorn 17
OBasabe, TB Scott Engel 13
TanScott, Mia Jeff Zimmerman 13
ZThompson, StL Jeff Zimmerman 5
DPeterson, NYM Kev Mahserejian 4
LSosa, CWS Scott Engel 3
HGoodman, Col Jeff Zimmerman 2
TTaylor, Mil Jeff Zimmerman 2
GSanchez, SD Kev Mahserejian 1
ROrtega, NYM Nick Pollack 1
SCecconi, Ari Brent Hershey 1
RGrichuk, LAA Scott Swanay 0
CKieboom, Was Justin Mason 0
DHudson, StL Justin Mason 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
YCano, Bal Ryan Bloomfield 253
JWicks, ChC Mike Gianella 55
JRojas, Sea Anthony Aniano 45
DCoulombe, Bal Anthony Aniano 45
BWilliamson, Cin Shelly Verougstraete 35
HGoodman, Col Tim McLeod 34
PMeadows, Det Ray Murphy 30
DCanzone, Sea Dr, Roto 23
ABenintendi, CWS Rudy Gamble 18
JSanchez, Mia Ryan Bloomfield 16
WAbreu, Bos Adam Ronis 12
OBasabe, TB Adam Ronis 8
ANardi, Mia Tim McLeod 6
ZThompson, StL Adam Ronis 3
FFermin, KC Scott White 0
HHarvey, Was Scott White 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
JWicks, ChC Joe Gallina 82
ADuvall, Bos Greg Jewett 18
ERosario, Atl Greg Jewett 18
CEstevez, LAA Ariel Cohen 15
GCanning, LAA Sky Dombroske 12
JRojas, Sea Lauren Auerbach 9
ABaddoo, Det Frank Ammirante 9
TanScott, Mia Michael Govier 7
GMoreno, Ari Frank Stampfl 7
ECabrera, Mia Michael Govier 6
MMiller, Oak Greg Jewett 5
BRooker, Oak Lauren Auerbach 5
JRomero, StL Greg Jewett 3
EPereira, NYY Lauren Auerbach 0

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
WFlores, SF Dylan White 31
BRooker, Oak Sara Sanchez 24
WAbreu, Bos Chris Clegg 17
LSeverino, NYY Dylan White 11
MMoustakas, LAA John Laghezza 7
GSanchez, SD Dylan White 7
TMegill, NYM Dylan White 6
BWilliamson, Cin Brian Entrekin 4
NAllen, Oak John Laghezza 3
GMoreno, Ari Brian Entrekin 1
YGomes, ChC Jeff Boggis 0
ERosario, Atl Matt Trussell 0
HNeris, Hou Andy Behrens 0
JOviedo, Pit Jeff Boggis 0
ARosario, LAD Matt Trussell 0
MGarver, Tex Andy Behrens 0

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of August 21

Welcome to Noelvi Marte Week as the prospects keep coming. Check out how much Marte cost, as well as everyone else below.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
NSchanuel, LAA Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 41
DKeuchel, Min Eric Samulski 29
JAranda, TB Rob Leibowitz 13
DSolano, Min Eric Samulski 11
ADiaz, Oak Jason Collette 5
KMuller, Oak Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 3
RStephenson, TB Jason Collette 3
CKelly, Det Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 1
LSosa, CWS Andy Andres 0
AZerpa, KC Andy Andres 0
ZCollins, Cle Mike Podhorzer 0
JMcCann, Bal Larry Schechter 0

National League

Player Team Bid
NMarte, Cin Wilderman/Prior 179
WMeckler, SF Ian Kahn 33
DSmyly, ChC Derek Carty 19
DStewart, NYM Steve Gardner 19
KLewis, Ari Erik Halterman 16
EDiaz, NYM Ian Kahn 12
JArauz, NYM Grey Albright 7
MTonkin, Atl Peter Kreutzer 6
JJunis, SF Tristan H. Cockcroft 5
NAhmed, Ari Tristan H. Cockcroft 4
PAvila, SD Phil Hertz 4
DRom, StL Rick Graham 3
DMendick, NYM Brian Walton 2
BGamel, SD Tristan H. Cockcroft 1
PJohnson, Atl Derek Carty 0
RBrasier, LAD Steve Gardner 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
RDetmers, LAA Justin Mason 63
SGarrett, Was Zach Steinhorn 57
MWinn, StL Zach Steinhorn 38
CIrvin, Bal Jeff Zimmerman 13
RPepiot, LAD Jeff Zimmerman 13
AHouser, Mil Kev Mahserejian 12
DLeMahieu, NYY Kev Mahserejian 6
NMarte, Cin Jeff Zimmerman 4
JPMartinez, Tex Jeff Zimmerman 1

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
LOHoppe, LAA Shelly Verougstraete 200
RPepiot, LAD Seth Trachtman 115
MWinn, StL Scott White 48
NMarte, Cin Seth Trachtman 45
JAssad, ChC Tim McLeod 37
SGarrett, Was Adam Ronis 28
NSchanuel, LAA Dr, Roto 24
AKittredge, TB Ray Murphy 22
JRomero, StL Ryan Bloomfield 21
BRooker, Oak Ryan Bloomfield 18
MVierling, Det Ryan Bloomfield 18
AChapman, Tex Mike Gianella 5
PBlackburn, Oak Adam Ronis 4
CIrvin, Bal Rudy Gamble 3
GMoreno, Ari Adam Ronis 3
DStewart, NYM Dr, Roto 3
ABaddoo, Det Rudy Gamble 3
YGomes, ChC Rudy Gamble 2
MBusch, LAD Scott White 1
PCrowArmstrong, ChC Scott White 1
CRafaela, Bos Scott White 1
KWaldichuk, Oak Mike Gianella 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
NMarte, Cin Sky Dombroske 101
PBlackburn, Oak Ariel Cohen 34
SGarrett, Was Lauren Auerbach 27
AHouser, Mil Sky Dombroske 22
RLewis, Min Joe Gallina 19
RPepiot, LAD Greg Jewett 18
KHernandez, LAD Geoff Pontes 17
NVelazquez, KC Lauren Auerbach 13
SSuzuki, ChC Michael Govier 13
BFalter, Pit Joe Gallina 13
CIrvin, Bal Lauren Auerbach 11
JFoley, Det Michael Govier 8
JAssad, ChC Michael Govier 8
NSchanuel, LAA Frank Stampfl 3
KHarrison, SF Frank Stampfl 3

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
NVelazquez, KC Sara Sanchez 37
MWinn, StL John Laghezza 35
MClevinger, CWS Brian Entrekin 4
DSmyly, ChC Brian Entrekin 3
TToussaint, CWS Dylan White 0
JMcNeil, NYM Jeff Boggis 0
SManaea, SF Jeff Boggis 0

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of August 14

It was supposed to be the calm after the storm, but the AL only teams didn’t get the message as they have a very busy week. The mixed formats? Not so much. However, everyone is grinding.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
EHancock, Sea Jason Collette 202
RLaureano, Cle Eric Samulski 179
LButler, Oak Chris Blessing 133
EduEscobar, LAA Jason Collette 75
OBasabe, TB Jason Collette 51
NVelazquez, KC Doug Dennis 40
JSingleton, Hou Andy Andres 32
JPMartinez, Tex Patrick Davitt 21
CBiggio, Tor Andy Andres 19
CIrvin, Bal Larry Schechter 5
AFelipe, Oak Eric Samulski 4
JSmith, Tex Eric Samulski 3
MBeaty, KC Larry Schechter 2
PBlackburn, Oak Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
KWaldichuk, Oak Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
JLyles, KC Andy Andres 1
MKing, NYY Andy Andres 1
FTarnok, Oak Jeff Erickson 1
AFaedo, Det Jeff Erickson 1
CPoche, TB Rob Leibowitz 0
SHaggerty, Sea Mike Podhorzer 0
DBlanco, KC Mike Podhorzer 0
JLuplow, Min Jeff Erickson 0
MMoore, LAA Doug Dennis 0

National League

Player Team Bid
CCarrasco, NYM Ian Kahn 28
TBeck, SF Peter Kreutzer 23
JAssad, ChC Peter Kreutzer 23
AWinans, Atl Steve Gardner 14
BKennedy, Ari Rick Graham 13
WWilson, Phi Wilderman/Prior 12
CPhillips, Cin Rick Graham 7
MChavis, Was Grey Albright 7
JCave, Phi Todd Zola 3
ESosa, Phi Ian Kahn 3
ZThompson, StL Brian Walton 1
AJackson, Pit Rick Graham 1
JDelay, Pit Brian Walton 0
CHolderman, Pit Brian Walton 0
CFerguson, LAD Derek Carty 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JFrance, Hou Zach Steinhorn 154
EHancock, Sea Nick Pollack 85
JGallo, Min Bret Sayre 45
KHernandez, LAD Bret Sayre 35
MLiberatore, StL Brent Hershey 23
JAssad, ChC Doug Anderson 22
RJeffers, Min Scott Swanay 17
ABaddoo, Det Scott Chu 17
FFermin, KC Scott Chu 16
EAndrus, CWS Doug Anderson 12
AWinans, Atl Kev Mahserejian 12
DWaters, KC Brent Hershey 8
JScholtens, CWS CJ Kaltenbach 6
BFalter, Pit CJ Kaltenbach 4
GJax, Min Scott Swanay 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
EHancock, Sea Ray Murphy 88
RJeffers, Min D.J. Short 30
DCanzone, Sea Ryan Bloomfield 26
JScholtens, CWS Tim McLeod 22
CMarlowe, Sea D.J. Short 20
DMoore, Sea Ryan Bloomfield 18
AWinans, Atl Tim McLeod 17
RLopez, LAA Shelly Verougstraete 11
JCueto, Mia Mike Gianella 11
BDoyle, Col Seth Trachtman 10
TMegill, NYM Mike Gianella 10
DPeterson, NYM Dr, Roto 9
ROlson, Det Adam Ronis 8
KHernandez, LAD Adam Ronis 8
SBieber, Cle Scott White 0
TMcKenzie, Cle Scott White 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
EHancock, Sea Paul Sporer 125
ETovar, Col Ariel Cohen 28
MLiberatore, StL Michael Govier 22
AFaedo, Det Ariel Cohen 18
JBell, Mia Michael Govier 16
CSilseth, LAA Joe Gallina 14
GSantos, CWS Frank Stampfl 6
ZLittell, TB Frank Stampfl 3
LRengifo, LAA Frank Stampfl 2
NSyndergaard, Cle Frank Stampfl 2

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
ZGelof, Oak Brian Entrekin 12
KHayes, Pit Dylan White 11
JRojas, Phi Sara Sanchez 6
MTauchman, ChC Brian Entrekin 6
GAshcraft, Cin Brian Entrekin 6
EHancock, Sea Brian Entrekin 6
RJeffers, Min Brian Entrekin 2
FFermin, KC Brian Entrekin 2
KHendricks, ChC Jeff Boggis 1
DPeterson, NYM Dylan White 0
AChapman, Tex Dylan White 0

Tout Table: Post-deadline fallout

As is tradition immediately after the trade deadline, the Touts were asked:

What is an under-the-radar repercussion of the trade deadline shuffling that shouldn’t be overlooked?

Garion Thorne (DraftKings, @GarionThorne): Let us all celebrate the merciful end of hunting saves in the desert. With the Diamondbacks acquisition of Paul Sewald there is now an undisputed hierarchy in the backend of Arizona’s bullpen. Congratulations to those among us — myself included — who have continued to roster the likes of Andrew Chafin or Miguel Castro in hopes of vulturing a couple precious saves. Neither even had the decency to provide in other categories. Chafin’s 1.43 WHIP was a drain on your ratios, while Castro’s 20.0% strikeout rate sits in just the 27th percentile of pitchers. We are now free.

Eric Samulski (Rotoballer, @SamskiNYC): I think park factors can sometimes be overlooked. People look at lineup or rotation spots and gravitate towards players who are in a bigger role, and that’s valuable but we also need to keep an eye on the environment the players are moving from or too. For example, Jake Burger is moving from a park that ranked 6th for right-handed pull power and is going to a park that’s 28th for right-handed pull power. Considering Burger’s main value in fantasy is HRs, that could be a big deal. Also, we gloss over motivation. If a team sells off player and waives the white flag, you can often see older players on those teams have worse ends to the season. It’s a grind to get up and compete every day when you know your team is not a contender, especially when you’ve been in the league a while.

Brad Johnson (Patreon BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): From what I’ve observed in my dynasty leagues, the deadline serves as a bottleneck to trading. Folks start saying “hey, the deadline is coming. I think certain of my guys could really gain value. I better wait.” The bottleneck opens a little before the actual deadline – managers try to sell their Carlos Hernandez before the Scott Barlow trade in order to lock in *some* profit. In that case, Barlow was traded and Hernandez is worth more today than a week ago. I think we can all imagine the scenario where he was not traded and Hernandez becomes a cut. The bottleneck bursts open post-deadline when real teams give us information like “the Cardinals seemingly really like Saggese, I should grab him too.” A rival of mine traded for him just the other day. I doubt Saggese was anywhere on his radar before the deadline.

Justin Mason (Friends With Fantasy Benefits, @JustinMasonFWFB): Over the next couple of weeks we are going to begin to see a number of minor leaguers get the call up to fill vacancies that were made by trades. Kyle Manzardo and Masyn Winn should both debut mid-August.

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): Masyn Winn isn’t up right away, but the Cardinals SS prospect was the International League July Player of the Month. He should get at least the last month of the season to break in with St. Louis. With Brendan Donovan out, hitter at-bats are going to LHB Alec Burleson, who is starting to get into a groove. On the other hand, Dylan Carlson, who was not traded as many expected, has become a reserve.

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS): Cardinals are going to give veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado way more off-days than normal down the stretch which will make Alec Burleson a de-facto full time player. Other teams will certainly do similar but Burleson has more talent than most players getting the PT boost.

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): The Royals trading away Ryan Yarbrough opened the door for Cole Ragans to get regular starts for the Royals. He flashed 97/98 mph heaters earlier in the year as a starter and could flirt with that velocity with a solid cutter and changeup.

Vlad Sedler (FTN Fantasy, @rotogut): Jean Segura’s playing career. Traded away by the Marlins, cut by Guardians immediately. Feels like one of those traps in 50-round Draft-and-Holds next season, a la Nelson Cruz this season.

Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty): In deeper AL/NL-only leagues, the focus is usually on the big names changing leagues. But the scrub players on their former teams who will step into bigger roles warrant consideration as well. In deeper leagues, the most valuable commodity is simple playing time. It may not be fun rostering someone like Gabriel Arias, who has started 7 of 8 games for Cleveland since Amed Rosario was dealt, but he’s going to have more value than a large number of players who are already rostered in leagues this size simply because he’s actually on the field. In Tout NL, I just added Rafael Ortega from the Mets. It’s not sexy, but he’s become a near-everyday player that would be worth $5 or so at auction who I acquired for 1% of my FAAB.

Scott White (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CBSScottWhite): Jonathan Aranda and Michael Busch are both 25 and, if the numbers are any indication, have clearly overstayed their welcome in the minors. Unfortunately, their parent clubs, both among the best in baseball, can’t seem to make room for them. My biggest hope going into the deadline was that they’d be cashed in as trade chips and immediately take over as starters for their new teams. It didn’t happen for either, and we all lose because of it.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I agree with those who say the effect is in PT, particularly understudies on lesser teams who step into FT roles when the leads go to new teams.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): While the focus is on the potential rest of season value changes of the players switching teams, there are also domino effects on the players in the organizations involved. Players sometimes get new or increased playing time opportunities, while others lose out or suffer reduce fantasy roles, like shifting into middle relief from the closer role.

Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Some really good streaming opportunities against teams that have sold and are just playing out the string (looking at you, Pirates, White Sox, Nationals, Mets, etc.)

Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier): Defense matters in real-life baseball. We could care less in fantasy baseball, but don’t assume every new acquisition or call-up will be heir apparent going forward. Pitchers need defense now more than ever to close out playoff spots. Take the defensive profile of the players you’re looking to add into consideration not just individually, but within the context of the team defensive alignment. Boring for some, but definitely something to pay attention to.

Glenn Colton (SiriusXM, @GlennColton1): Luis Urias. Sent down but now called up. Yes, he was bad in MLB and AAA this year but 2b/ss/3b eligibility is super valuable and is just 26 coming off age 24-25 seasons in which he hit 39 HR in under 900 AB. Plus .179 BABIP will improve

Dave Adler (BaseballHQ, @daveadler01): Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. Even as a rental, two months of Ohtani would have brought tremendous prospect value to LAA, and allowed a rebuild. But how do you trade the second-coming of Babe Ruth? The off-season question will be whether Ohtani appreciates the effort to compete and re-signs…or if it’s not enough to keep him from signing elsewhere. If he leaves, LAA will likely be bad for a long time.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I agree with everyone who said playing time and would just add that evaluating playing time across team context, i.e., how to compare the value of a player who is playing every day on a struggling team v. a guy who just lost playing time to a strong-side platoon situation on a better team. I find that it’s useful to use 14-day/30-day comparisons a lot at this time of year to get a better idea of counting stats over 75% of ABs v. 90% of ABs in a different situation because it can vary a lot by team context. Additionally, if you’re holding a guy who is newly part of a strong-side platoon, making sure you check that with schedules week-by-week is important.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): Playing time is the key metric here. The decision for Shohei Ohtani to remain with the Angels for the remainder of the season. I think they will resign him in the off season. There are a handful of key prospects who can help teams in the second half that I would love to see get called up and that can help fantasy baseball teams during the home stretch. Some of those names on my radar include Michael Busch (2B LAD), Brandon Pfaadt (P ARI), and Matt Wallner (OF MIN).

Chris Blessing (BaseballHQ, @C_Blessing): There’s always a call up or two, August 15th or later, we’re all surprised about. Do we dare say it’s Jackson Chourio? If he keeps hitting the way he has since the All-Star break, the Brewers would be fools not to trot him out in CF over Sal Frelick in this Pennett Race. Last time we saw a 19-year-old in a similar spot it was Juan Soto.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): There are always injuries and moves by teams after the deadline. Make sure you leave yourself some ability to fill your stretch-run gaps or to take advantage of those roster changes, if you can.

Tim McCullough (Fantasy Six Pack, @TimsTenz): Not sure this is really under the radar, but I think the trade deadline was a real dud this year because there were so many teams that were neither sellers nor buyers. The expansion of the playoffs, and therefore more teams with a theoretical shot at postseason play, means more teams will stand pat or make fewer trades. Very few top players will be traded at the deadline unless they are due to be free agents at the end of the season, and even then, the return haul on the top players will be smaller because teams are less willing to pay top dollar for a rental that may or may not pan out for them. Even the relief pitching market will shrink because teams will want to hang onto their high leverage and high-quality relievers – something they already need to do since starting pitchers are not pitching deep into games. The lack of player movement in MLB will spill over into fantasy leagues and we’ll likely see fewer fantasy trades around the deadline. The next thing we’ll likely see is the trade deadline being moved later into the season – perhaps mid-August or even later – to give teams more time to see whether their playoff odds are improving or dwindling. If the league doesn’t do this then the trade deadline will continue to see fewer trades overall, fewer blockbusters, and fewer top players moved. Fantasy leagues will follow suit.

Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643): Keep an eye on minor league players that could be called up a-la Corbin Carroll style. Masyn Winn and Connor Phillips are two that come to mind. If the Brewers and Orioles really want to spice things up down the stretch, the two Jacksons (Chourio and Holliday) could make an appearance.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I think it’s important to remember that these are human beings being completely uprooted, having to adapt to life changes outside of baseball while trying to fit into a new clubhouse. This can be tough on the psyche. “Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical,” as Yogi Berra said. Sometimes the pressures can mount and exacerbate struggles in a new situation.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): One notice of mine were the amount of teams that essentially did nothing, Yankees come to mind, and will spend the rest of the year in baseball purgatory. Not good enough to win, not bad enough to lose. Its an odd strategy that limited trade deadline excitement.

Ian Kahn (, @IanKahn4): It’s the spots that open up with the trades. The Jakee Alus of the world, who are getting their shots. It really is a fun time, because the teams that are out of it are looking for guys that might work in 2024. When everyone is in Fantasy Football mode, the field is open for pickups that will help you in 2024 and beyond in Dynasty and Keeper Leagues.

Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano): Playing time, it’s all about it. As an example, Michael Lorenzen has been a gift from heaven for a bunch of teams with struggling aces. He was with an underwhelming Tigers team that limited his W opportunities so him moving to a contender was going to be awesome, right? Well, he landed on the Phillies and is now part of a six man rotation. This kind of things while not too flashy can add on in detriment of your chances. It’s hard to anticipate all the possibilities so sometimes you can only react and wait for the best.

Chris Clegg (Pitcher List, @RotoClegg): Trades always have some sort of fall out for both teams involved. There will be players who lose playing time, but also those who gain playing time. It is important to monitor the trends closely for all teams and see who is gaining and losing playing time. Late season callups will also happen. With the amount of callups that have happened this year, it may not feel like there are many prospects left that could get the call, but I would save a little FAAB because we just might see a top prospect get call this month.

Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9): Teams filling innings for the remainder of the season. With injuries compiling for many teams, multiple-inning relievers or win vultures may be very savvy plays for the rest-of-the-season. No pitcher has ever won 10 games while accruing less than 60 innings and two sit on the precipice of this feat. Mike Baumann (BAL) 9 wins over 54.1 innings and Colin Poche (TBR) 9 wins through 40.1 innings. San Francisco has two pitchers in a rotation then “bulk relievers” like Tristan Beck filling in. Streaming them in deeper formats may be an effective streaming strategy over the last seven weeks of the season, especially in head-to-head leagues.

Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): Looking for opportunities given to players on teams that sold off at the trade deadline. When players are traded away from teams out of contention, it is very likely that someone available on the waiver wire is going to suddenly start seeing everyday at bats. It just lends to more opportunities for free agents which is helpful when making waiver wire acquisitions. At this time of the season, it is very rare to find a hidden gem in the middle of the waiver wire.