It’s the final week of the Tout Daily regular season. The final three Golden Tickets are on the line. Here are some of the players the Touts are banking on to get it done.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Pitcher: Eric Lauer – Cheap, in a decent spot
Hitter: Jake Lamb – Not stacking Snakes, they’re slithery and hard to keep in one place, but like some exposure to Hoffman.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)
Pitcher: Chris Sale – I originally planned on starting Clayton Kershaw, but his start was pushed back to tomorrow. Starting Chris Sale tonight in his place. Sale’s disappointing season has depressed his salary to $10,700 tonight. He is coming off his last start with 46.8 fantasy points and 13 Ks. Hoping for a repeat performance tonight.
Hitter: Vlad Guerrero Jr. – I’m still amazed at his salary being below $4,000, but I’ll take it at $3,800. Tough matchup against Lance Lynn might explain his salary, but I’m willing to take a chance on Vlad tonight.
Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty)
Pitcher: Matt Boyd – Boyd may be popular, but it’s for good reason. He’s the top pitcher on the slate and is cheaper than some of the other strong aces like Chris Sale and Lance Lynn. He faces a weak Mariners lineup with a proclivity to strike out, has a good pitch-framer in Jake Rogers, and an elite pitchers’ umpire
Hitter: Kris Bryant – Jason Vargas is bad, and the depths of how bad he is have been masked for years by Citi Field. A contact prone, flyball pitcher will not fare well in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park, especially while lacking the platoon advantage against some of the best right-handed hitters in the game. Bryant, Baez, and Castellanos are all underpriced tonight.
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)
Pitcher: Dustin May – The Dodgers haven’t been shy about letting their top pitching prospect pitch as far as he can into games. With a great matchup vs. Miami, he could last into the 7th and get 7-8 K’s.
Hitter: Franmil Reyes – Yes, he’s facing Chris Sale. But at only $3,300, he has to be one of the better values out there after homering yesterday off another lefty starter.
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)
Pitcher: Jack Flaherty – Still way underpriced on account of his lackluster first half. Since the All-Star break, Flaherty has a 0.86 ERA and 43:9 K:BB.
Hitter: Aristides Aquino – Pricey now, but I’m drinking the Kool-Aid.
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)
Pitcher: Dustin May – A K per inning and faces the Marlins. Too good to pass up
Hitter: Bryce Harper – He leads a Phillies stack versus Quintana at $4500
We are back with another weekly reports, summarizing the top
free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the
detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening.
All prices are on a $1000 base.
After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat,
starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola
of Mastersball and other Touts.
American League
I guess it was post-trade deadline blues across AL Tout, as
just 14 free agents were purchased.
It was oldies but goodies week, as Byron Buxton was acquired
by Rob Leibowitz for the top sum of $56. The Twins outfielder is on the injured
list with a shoulder problem, so it appears Rob is willing to take a week of
zeros in hopes that Buxton can return strongly later in the season.
Howard Bender was busy, spending $90 on two injury infielder
fill-ins – Ryan Goins of the White Sox ($52) and Dawel Lugo of the Tigers
($38). Goins has been producing at third while Yoan Moncada is out and Lugo is
covering the hot corner for Jeimer Candelario.
Colton and the Wolfman dropped $50 on infielder/outfielder Tim
Lopes of the Mariners. Fresh off a concussion-driven time out, the 25-year old
had a pair of two-RBI outings in his four appearances this past week.
17 free agents were acquired in the National League, the
most spent on any player being $20.
That is the amount of my winning bid on new Cubs catcher Jonathan
Lucroy. I am not expecting miracles from the well-traveled former Brewers star,
but I will get more at-bats from him and a batter contribution than from
OBP-drain Yan Gomes.
The Braves have no shortage of former closers in the pen,
with veteran Mark Melancon declared “the man” on Friday. He proceeded to give
up four runs in the ninth on Saturday, with the help of Shane Greene, who blew
the save. Pre-trade deadline closer Luke Jackson converted on Sunday. Still, Grey
Albright spent $12 on Melancon, who I dropped last week thinking he would not
get any saves with Atlanta. I might still be right.
St. Louis prospect outfielder Lane Thomas was called up 10 games ago and got just five plate appearances and no starts while infielder Tommy Edman made four starts in right, the latter’s first professional games in the outfield. Finally given a start on Sunday, Thomas hit a grand slam and an RBI triple, plus threw out a Pirate at home. Still, with Tyler O’Neill soon coming back from injury, Thomas’ chances for playing time remain with Mike Shildt – not a good thing. Craig Mish was willing to invest $9 in Thomas.
Finally, a normal week, with 23 free agents acquired in the
Mixed Auction league.
Leading the way at $77 was Jeff Zimmerman’s purchase of rookie
right-hander Aaron Civale of the Indians. In two starts totaling 12 innings,
the 25-year old has yielded just one earned run on five hits and four walks
with 13 punchouts. Not bad at all…
Ron Shandler took a shot at Melancon for $73.
Derek Law of Toronto went for $61 to Scott Engel. The
right-hander has logged 11 straight scoreless appearances and even if Ken Giles
wasn’t iffy, he has earned a shot at the ninth. All three of Law’s saves have
come in August, with two this past week.
Mitch Keller of the Pirates joined the roster of Zach
Steinhorn for $54. The 23-year old prospect was sent down two months ago after
three rough starts, but is getting another shot for the reeling Bucs on Monday
against the Angels.
It was a busy Sunday night in Mixed Draft, as 27 players
joined team rosters.
Leading the way at $164 is “The Punisher”, Aristedes Aquino,
who homered in four straight games, including three long balls on Saturday. The
Reds outfielder has 14 RBI in his last eight games, though Adam Ronis will get
none of those impressive numbers.
Mike Foltynewicz is back from Triple-A and the Braves’
right-hander drew $70 of D.J. Short’s FAAB. The 27-year old fanned seven in 5
1/3 innings in his return, but was charged with three earned runs at Minnesota.
On Sunday, Folty yielded four runs in six frames against the Marlins. A tough
home showdown against the Dodgers is next.
With the Pirates’ season going nowhere, Jose Osuna is back
from the minors and the infielder/outfielder is starting regularly. For good
reason, as the right-handed hitter is batting .412 over the last two weeks with
10 RBI in 12 games. His new owner is Perry Van Hook ($49).
19 players were added via FAAB in the Head-to-Head League
this Sunday.
Dan Strafford, a name I almost never mention here, spent
big, placing $300 in total on two players – Aquino for $200 and Yankee Mike
Tauchman for an even $100. The New York outfielder has been on fire, with five
home runs and 12 RBI over his last seven games.
Nick Anderson of Tampa Bay joined the roster of A.J. Mass
for $75. The former Marlin has 11 strikeouts in just five innings since joining
the Rays. Anderson has a win and a hold, but no saves yet with his new club.
Overall spending was down, as no other Head-to-Head player
cost more than $12 to purchase this week.
It’s the third week of the fifth period, chances to claim a Golden Ticket are running out. Here are some players the Touts are clicking in.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)
Pitcher: Zack Plesac – Part of my Tribe double dose, he’ll get the win and 7+ K’s
Hitter: Franmil Reyes – Going deep tonight, makes by his trade from Padres looking good!
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)
Pitcher: Zach Wheeler – The Mets are rolling and so is he with 21 Ks in his last 17.1 IP. He faces the Marlins tonight who strikeout out 9 times per game on average.
Hitter: Matt Chapman – He’s hitting 13 points higher versus lefties this season and averages a home run every 11 at bats versus lefties. He faces Jon Lester tonight.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)
Pitcher: Zach Wheeler – He’s been doing some of his best pitching of the year.
Hitter: Victor Robles – Price is right.
Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ)
Pitcher: Mike Leake – He’s been sneaky good of late, PHI bats haven’t traveled well, and the ARI humidor is in full effect
Hitter: Jordy Mercer – He’s dirt cheap at 2600, has always hit lefties well, and there’s no more attractive lefty than Hector Santiago. Just hope he gets more than 1 AB against him. 🙂
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)
Pitcher: German Marquez – Going against the grain as Zack Greinke makes his Astros debut. Marquez gets a ton of strikeouts and pitches much better away from Coors. Can he tame the Astros lineup?
Hitter: Aristides Aquino – The rookie has a 50% hard-hit rate in his brief MLB career. He’s hitting cleanup at home in Cincinnati and is only $3700.
Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)
Pitcher: Zack Greinke – Continuing the Zack theme, let’s see that Astros’ magic one more time. Home start, weak Rockies on the road, Zack goes a little deeper than most SP’s these days
Hitter: Miguel Cabrera – Showing signs lately and if he can’t crush Hector Santiago it really is over. And Miggy is cheap. I know, he deserves to be.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Pitcher: Zack Cashner – I lost a bet. Either that or I need to make up a gazillion points and in this climate, that’s done with bats
Hitter: Miguel Cabrera – +1 on what Gene said, plus he’s hitting southpaws well.
What is an under-the-radar or non-obvious fallout from the trade deadline machinations?
Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): There are many directions to take this prompt. I think I’ll focus on the uncertainty posed by The One True Deadline. We saw clubs like the Braves and Nationals pile up mid-tier reliever depth. From the club perspective, having to survive two months using only internal resources seems quite daunting. Alternatively some playoff teams, like the Yankees and Dodgers, decided to roll the dice on a quiet deadline. Only later will we find out if they should have invested in more depth.
AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): There are no Tigers hitters I feel are worthy of stepping in to fill the void left by the trade of Nick Castellanos, which means there’s zero reason not to stream any and all pitchers facing Detroit from this point forward through the end of the season. It’s a virtually guarantee of a quality start.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Several bullpens are even weaker, making it even better to stream hitters against the Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mariners and Giants when a lesser starting pitcher is scheduled.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): If you were hoping for Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler to get a boost by leaving the Mets awful defense behind, sorry. If you dumped Taylor Rogers or traded him on the cheap because you assumed the Twins were going to make a deal for a bigger name, sorry again. One of the biggest takeaways from the deadline every year is never assume or expect that certain trades have to happen and don’t shift value based on a rumor.
Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): I’ll also mention the Detroit Tigers, but for a different reason – an increase of playing time and opportunity for their remaining players. Jacoby Jones, Niko Goodrum, etc. will now get all of the playing time for the rest of the season. With a weaker / lower run scoring lineup, they may run more and could put up some decent power/speed stats. I will also say that Tanner Roark now goes from CIN to OAK – and might have the best short term fantasy boost of any player traded yesterday.
Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene): With the Giants going all in, watch for them to call up newly-acquired outfielder Jaylin Davis, either immediately or very soon. Davis has the big power that could make the difference for them or for us. Risky, but if they go all-in on him we should too.
Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): MLB made a huge error having deadline Aug 1…Aug 15 Next year..Etch that in your kitchen table
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): HOU has shows a remarkable ability to acquire and then develop castoff or underappreciated pitchers, and I wonder if it might be worth betting that HOU can straighten out Aaron Sanchez. Quite a few TOR observers have noted that TOR was leaning on Sanchez to generate ground balls with his sinker/change combo, even though his curve is his most effective pitch— per Statcast, curve getting .255 BAA and .201 xBA, .318 Slg and .269 xSlg; Sinker .381 BA, .334 xBA, .575 Slg, .527 xSlg. The challenge will be getting innings in a HOU rotation that added Zack Greinke, but could be a nifty get in keepers with HOU likely to lose Cole in the off-season. Rule of thumb: If HOU likes a pitcher, so should you.
Dr. Roto (Scout Fantasy, @DrRoto): The Marlins might have shocked everyone by trading Gallen, but they added hitters with huge potential who can make an impact within the coming seasons.
Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): Mets control the Winter Market in Starting Pitchers
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I tend to hunt for players who are getting an opportunity because the team created a hole. And sometimes they don’t show themselves right away–sometimes it is a week later after everyone has spent their faab chasing the best guy they can get. One example: Trent Grisham (MIL)–what is he worth in faab? I suppose it depends on him to some degree, but also on Travis Shaw and Eric Thames and we are talking about 8 weeks with the clock ticking.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): Ryne Stanek is going to become only the second pitcher since the save rule was introduced in 1969 to start at least 20 and save at least eight games in a single season (Tom Gordon, 1997).
Michael Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): One prevailing draft strategy is to not overpay for saves by drafting closers too early. However, chasing saves later in the season is a daunting task, especially when relievers who emerge as closers get traded near the deadline to teams that already have a closer. No one will ever be as consistent as Mariano Rivera, but there is something to be said about taking a semi-reliable closer early in a draft to at least know you can stay competitive in that category for most of the season.
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): With the change in rules this season, there are likely to be very few players moved from here on out. Given that, I’m surprised there weren’t more deals, and the new situation should reinforce the belief that emptying out your FAAB budget this week in Only leagues makes a good deal of sense.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Travis Demeritte has been called up by the Tigers and should play regularly. Not a sure thing, but has a lot of power. Joe Jimenez should take over as Tigers closer. Justin Shafer could get saves for Blue Jays as long as Ken Giles remains on the IL. Keep an eye on Seattle and see if anyone emerges as the new closer with Elias and Strickland both gone.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Trevor Rosenthal winds up the year closing some games for the Tigers.
Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): Crazy prediction. Mets continue to rack up the wins with the Stroman trade being the wind in their sails. They sneak into the Wild Card game and win it behind deGrom. They then lose a thrilling 6 game series to the Dodgers and go into the off-season having big dreams for 2020. Wheeler resigns with the team, and the Mets go into 2020 with their best rotation in Baseball. Crazy prediction.
Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): I had been anticipating Phillip Ervin as a waiver target once Yasiel Puig was traded, but I overlooked Aristides Aquino. It could be fun to see how his fly ball and pull tendencies play at GABP.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Lots of closing gigs totally up in the air, with no confirmations in DET, MIA, MIN, SEA, and TB. There are saves to be had!
D.J. Short (Rotoworld, @djshort): I learned some stuff reading this thread. Good stuff. I think it will be interesting to see Derek Fisher get a chance to play a little bit with the Blue Jays. I wouldn’t say my expectations are super high, but it wasn’t too long ago that folks were interested in him. He has some pop and speed, which could play nicely down the stretch. Another note from the deadline is that the Zack Greinke trade probably clinches that Gerrit Cole isn’t coming back to the Astros next season.
Jon Hegglund (Baseball Prospectus, @JonHegglund): Along with Ervin, Josh VanMeter should now get something approaching everyday run in Cincinnati. Also, that Tampa Bay/Miami trade is interesting: keep an eye on how the Rays use Trevor Richards in the pen and look for Ryne Stanek to get a shot at the ninth-inning role in Miami. (Sure, it’s the Marlins, but saves are saves…)
Craig Mish (SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, @CraigMish): The Cardinals doing nothing at the deadline will create a lot of pressure for them to perhaps call up one of their top prospects from the Minor Leagues. Randy Arozarena or Dylan Carlson would seem likely to get a chance since they didn’t acquire anyone, combined with the demotion of Harrison Bader and IL of Tyler O’Neill.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): The Closer carousel is in full force this week and through the month of August. Look at your league standings and strategically position yourself to make a run in the saves category.
Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): I like Josh VanMeter skill set and am intrigued by more consistent playing time. He’s playing all over the diamond (he should soon have second-base eligibility in most leagues), has a great walk rate, has shown some pop, and is even swiping bags. For now, it appears VanMeter is still going to sit against lefties, but should he start getting everyday playing time, there’s an outside chance he can turn into Max Muncy-lite.
Eric Karabell (ESPN, @karabelleric): I cannot remember simply ignoring so many bullpens so the fact that a few closers were traded means little to the former teams. Who wants to mess with Seattle or Detroit now? What about Miami? It might be Ryne Stanek, but what if there is nothing to save?
The trade deadline edition is our busiest weekly report for
2019, summarizing the top free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars
leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET
deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000 base.
After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat,
starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola
of Mastersball and other Touts.
American League
The AL- and NL-only leagues had the most action this week,
as expected. In the AL, only one owner had more than $800 FAAB, Larry
Schechter. Next at $691 was Mike Podhorzer and Doug Dennis at $482.
22 free agents joined AL-only teams in this week’s bidding.
Schechter used his hammer to acquire new Cleveland
outfielder Yasiel Puig for $484. His new outfield mate by way of San Diego,
Franmil Reyes, was acquired by Podhorzer for $416. That was a dollar more than
Doug Dennis spent to acquire new Astros starter Zack Greinke.
Spreading his cash around, Schechter also nabbed Detroit outfielder Travis Demeritte for $297. For $295, former Brewers-now Rays slugger Jesus Aguilar joined the roster of Jeff Erickson.
No other AL free agents went for more than $77, but as one
might guess, the NL-only bidding was even wilder.
Money had been hoarded in the National League with two
owners holding more than $1000 – Scott Wilderman at $1085 and Justin Mason with
$1055. Next were Derek Carty at $940 and Craig Mish with $810.
It paid off as the biggest quantity of names to be traded
headed into the Senior Circuit. In some wild and crazy bidding, a whopping 28
players were acquired this week.
Wilderman picked up new Reds starter Trevor Bauer for $1056.
(As one would expect, Mason offered “just” $941.) Not coincidentally, that is
what Mason paid for his second choice, new Cubs outfielder Nicholas
Castellanos.
Per the unwritten script, Carty picked up new Mets starter
Marcos Stroman for $811. Mish took new Braves closer Shane Greene for $709.
A pair of called-up prospects were next in the spending hierarchy.
Dodgers starter Dustin May, with additional opportunity now that Hyun-Jin Ryu
is out, fetched $602 of Grey Albright’s cash. Brewers outfield prospect Trent
Grisham was snapped by Tristan H. Cockcroft for $400.
Steve Gardner added new Cubs second baseman-outfielder Tony
Kemp for $204 and new Arizona starter Mike Leake for $145.
While the dollar amounts were not higher, with none reaching
$100, a whopping 31 free agents joined Mixed Auction rosters this Sunday
evening.
Seattle has changed closers this season more often than
Spinal Tap drummers (yes, I am dating myself with this reference). Maybe
Anthony Bass is back around for another shot. He pitched the ninth Sunday, but
the M’s were down by two runs. Scott Pianowski spent $99 to hook Bass.
Another new closer is Archie Bradley in Arizona, replacing
(again) imploded Greg Holland. Brent Hershey spent $83 to land Bradley.
Eric Karabell likes shortstop Isan Diaz of the Marlins
enough to submit a winning bid of $73. A call-up for the talented prospect is
said to be imminent.
25 players found new homes in FAAB bidding this week in
Mixed Draft, but spending was centered on two owners.
Arizona’s closer Bradley led the way, fetching $104 of the
bankroll of league co-leader Rudy Gamble. He also acquired Royal Chelsor
Cuthbert for $54.
D.J. Short dropped $145 on a trio of players – no-hit Astros
starter Aaron Sanchez ($70), the Marlins’ Diaz ($45) and A’s outfielder Stephen
Piscotty ($30).
24 free agents were acquired in the Head-to-Head League this
Sunday evening.
Top dollar was the $188 pitching analyst Paul Sporer spent
on former Jays-now Astros hurler Sanchez.
From there, the bidding dropped dramatically, to the $41 of
Ian Kahn’s FAAB used to acquire new Dodgers starter May.
Next up was the $36 paid by Andrea LaMont for Blake Treinen
of Oakland. The results have been there, but the right-hander’s chances to
reclaim the closer’s job seem cloudy.
It’s the second week of the final period of Tout Daily. Here are some of the players the Touts are counting on to grab the final three Golden Tickets
Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)
Pitcher: Julio Teheran – Who doesn’t like a mid-priced option who has posted a 3.29 ERA over his last 10 starts, including five straight games allowing two earned or fewer?
Hitter: Matt Olson – Facing Milwaukee right-hander Adrian Houser? That sounds like an Olson HR waiting to happen.
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)
Pitcher: David Price – Price has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 7 starts while striking out 43 batters in those 37 innings. Pitching in Boston he has a 2.89 ERA and the Rays are 20th in runs per game while striking out more than 9 times per game on average.
Hitter: Anthony Rendon – Rendon has 5 hits in his last 10 at bats with 7 RBIs. On the season he is hitting .319 at home and faces Julio Teheran and his 4.45 road ERA.
Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)
Pitcher: Griffin Canning – Not pitching well lately but he’s super-cheap and this is a home start against a weak Tigers’ attack.
Hitter: Carson Kelly – Has unbelievable numbers against lefties AND against flyballers. JA Happ is both and the ballpark is a bandbox. Not really cheap at $4100 but I’d pay more.
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper)
Pitcher: Griffin Canning – Eating chalk with one pitcher if you’re building around a few Dodgers and Rockies bats in Coors is necessary to make the pieces fit. The Tigers are the team I want to stream against the most in season-long leagues, so having a mid-priced option capable of bringing 20+ DraftKings points with a 5+ inning start should get it done.
Hitter: Bryce Harper – I’m actually buying into some of the adjustments that Tyler Beede has made this season, but on the road in a park that boosts homers, he’s in a very dangerous spot tonight. I like stacking the Phillies on this slate, but if I could only roll out one of their hitters, it would be Harper in this matchup.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)
Pitcher: Adam Wainwright – Time for the veteran to step and lead! Big series with Cubs opens tonight and he needs to set the tone!
Hitter: Paul Goldschmidt – Same with Cardinal hitters. Goldy has been on a homer terror this past week, he needs to keep it going against Cubs
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)
Pitcher: Justin Verlander – Justin Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on Draftkings tonight at $11,400, but he is well worth the investment. He’s given up no more than 4 earned runs any of the 22 games that he has started this season. He has close to a 33% strikeout rate and is averaging 26.2 fantasy points per outing. Shane Bieber at $10,600 as another option, but he faces Verlander tonight.
Hitter: Mookie Betts, Paul DeJong, and Robinson Cano – Recently, Mookie Betts ($5,000), Paul DeJong ($4,100), Robinson Cano ($3,300), and Nelson Cruz each hit three homers in a game and they did it on consecutive days. The unprecedented streak of home run hat tricks began with Cano on Tuesday and was capped by Mookie Betts on Friday. Unfortunately, Nelson Cruz is not starting tonight. I like my odds for one of these players hitting at least 1 home run tonight, right?
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez – Money where my mouth is — I’ve planted my second half flag firmly on Lopez, he tweaked delivery over the break, added 2 ticks to 4-seamer, throwing (and spinning) curve and slider more. Not to mention, not a bad matchup and price is right.
Hitter: Ketel Marte – Money where my mouth was three years ago. If I were a better marketer, I’d develop a strategy and call it the KETEL Plan.
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner)
Pitcher: J.A. Happ – The Yankees are big favorites tonight at home vs. the D’backs and all Happ needs to do is go five innings to get the win. (And avoid the Ketel Marte land mine.)
Hitter: Tyler White – Yes, his season has been a disaster. But given a new life with the Dodgers and an enviable spot hitting fifth at Coors Field, his $3500 price tag is too good to resist.
What are some of the mistakes you’ve encountered in trade negotiations?
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Owners offering trades without looking at my team’s needs and non-needs. Why are you offering me Jose Abreu when I already have Freddie Freeman at first, Anthony Rizzo at corner, and Edwin Encarnacion at utility? On a related note, don’t offer me Mallex Smith if I have a 10 stolen base lead over second place in the category.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): That I make or that others make? I like to try to provide options for other owners to choose from and then if they do choose something, we can get to agreement that helps everyone quickly. I would say that one mistake I make most often is to go for a larger rather than a smaller trade. Not everyone likes that or will respond to that. What I don’t like: when someone is not interested, say so quickly instead of pretending to be interested then wasting time later or never responding again after that initial feigned interest. When someone offers me a trade, I like to tell them quickly what I think. What I don’t like: if you disagree with my view, trying to bully me or coerce me or get me to change my view point because “it is not how you would do it” is a waste of time and is counterproductive. Not everyone sees everything the same way. Maybe you are smarter than me. But when you try too hard to tell me you are, I start to think maybe you aren’t.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Don’t editorialize, it’s distracting and sets the wrong mood. For example, I received a recent cattle call where the person looking to deal wrote something like, “I need to trade so-and-so because of the stupid new rule.” As it happens, I was in favor of the rule, as were at least half of the other league participants, else it wouldn’t have passed. It’s not like I’m not interested in dealing with this person, but instead of combing our rosters for a match, I’m bitching to myself this guy had ample opportunity to state his opinion when discussing the rule, get over it.
Seth Trachtman (Rotoworld, @sethroto): Making an offer that’s one-sided, and that goes well beyond player value. When making a trade offer, you always have to put yourself in the other team’s shoes. Why would they accept this offer? Does it fill one of their needs (category, position, or otherwise)? Does it help their stated goal of winning the league or rebuilding? If the offer clearly has no chance of helping the other team, then you shouldn’t expect them to accept it. In some cases, you’re better off sending an initial email asking what they’d like to accomplish rather than an actual trade proposal so that everyone is on the same page entering potential trade negotiations.
Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): Always remember that I don’t care about your team. All I care about is my team, so you need to sell me on why this trade will benefit ME. And I am intimately knowledgeable about my team, so don’t try to sell me faux benefits that are really just speculations. I’ll see right through that. Like Mike said above, don’t try to sell me a starting pitcher when I have Scherzer and Wheeler coming off the DL this weekend.
Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): Don’t tell me how to run my team … ever. I told one owner so many times to quit doing it, I had to just block all correspondence from him.
Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): Be willing to walk away. Some owners get so far down the line on negotiations that they will accept a lesser offer just to finalize a deal. Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make.
Scott Engel (Rotoballer, @scotteTheKing): Salesmanship. Don’t try to sell me on why I should make the deal. Cut the crap, just ask me if I am interested or not. And don’t offer me a player from my favorite team as a lure. That is insulting to my Rotisserie integrity.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): I’m with Justin. Many of the best trades are the ones not made. And, I’ll plead guilty to getting involved in a negotiation, watching it go in a different direction than at the start, and then allowing myself to persuade myself that the deal is going to work when I should have walked away long ago.
James Anderson (Rotowire, @RealJRAnderson): The thing that annoys me most in trade discussions is when someone offers something that is so lopsided that it can’t be taken seriously, but they still expect there to be a back and forth. I either don’t respond or immediately decline, depending on my relationship with the other owner. I usually come in with close to my best offer, just because I don’t have the time to trade a bunch of e-mails back and forth only for it to lead nowhere. If I didn’t enjoy the prospect aspect of dynasty leagues, I wouldn’t play in many leagues that allow trading.
Zach Steinhorn (Baseball Prospectus, @zachsteinhorn): Lopsided offers are bad enough, but offers that are both lopsided and demonstrate that the owner did zero research regarding my potential areas of need are a big turnoff and would discourage me from working out any trade with that owner in the future. Even worse is when there’s no accompanying note explaining why I might be remotely interested in making such a trade. It’s fine if your initial offer isn’t your best offer, but you also don’t want to be labeled as the owner who regularly sends out insulting trade offers. Have some respect for your competition.
Eric Karabell (ESPN, @karabelleric): This isn’t personal, so while negotiations should be fair, if we don’t come to a reasonable agreement on this trade, it hardly means we can’t deal with each other. It’s not a character flaw. I just don’t want your Rick Porcello. We can deal but offer someone else!
Dr. Roto (Scout Fantasy, @DrRoto): Losing my patience with bad offers. I know everyone wants to get over on another owner in a deal, but I need to avoid taking it personally. People are going to do what they can to help themselves and I need to be rational and not react to that.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Not adjusting your evaluations of a player’s worth to you (or to a potential trade partner) to reflect where you (or they) currently sit in the standings. If I’m in first/last place by a wide margin with little opportunity to lose/gain points in a category, I should be more willing to trade a player (i.e. – value him less) who’s strong in that category than I would have earlier in the season, even if his underlying performance hasn’t changed.
Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): Overthinking it. For myself, there’s been times when I’m scouring rosters, looking for that good fit, and I might make some notes on possibilities to formulate an offer. Then I’ll put it aside, doubting that I could find a viable match, without even engaging other teams or options. Then several days later, my target has been traded, and I missed my opportunity. In this situations, I need to trust my gut more and just open up discussions. One never knows where it might go
Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): Ever get the old “I’d be willing to consider [player x] …” line? What does that even mean? I’m with Mike/Ron here: lay out why the deal makes sense for *my* team, start with a fair offer, and be direct. The fact that you put some time and research into my team makes me much more likely to engage. Related: I got a trade offer today with a message that started: “I realize this is not fair, but…”. Mistake!
Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): A big issue I’ve seen with trade negotiations is where one team makes an offer to the other team, with no understanding of what that team needs. I’ve seen owners offer steals to a team that doesn’t need it for example. They focus on their own needs, and not on the selling point enough.
Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): Two biggest mistakes are making the insulting offer just to see if you can trick someone. At that point, I just do not bother negotiating with that person. Second mistake – pushing for just a little more rather than taking a good deal that helps your team. It is a hard line to figure out sometimes but always ask yourself — are you being a little piggy?
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): All the answers above are excellent. The mistake I sometimes make is being TOO explanatory about why a deal helps the other guy. This is not usually a problem in experts’ leagues, where the other guy appreciates the analysis and thought-process effort, even if he disagrees with the outcome, but in home leagues or public leagues, a detailed explanation can read as manipulative or, paradoxically, as an attempt to pull the wool over his eyes with fancy-talk.
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): I have realized that I didn’t always do a good enough job of doing the legwork of figuring out what the other owner needed before starting negotiations. Taking that time significantly increases the likelihood of getting a deal done that will help your team, and it probably saves all parties involved some time in the long run since there won’t be a series of wasteful interactions and offers prior to nothing happening.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): I agree with many things already mentioned, so I’ll add something different. An owner left the draft with a very huge shortfall of power, and excess SP. I offered a power hitter for a SP and his response was that according to his projections he would lose more points in the standings than he would gain, so he declined. I tried to explain to him that he was so far behind in HR/RBI that this trade was the first step to get closer to the pack and be in a position where something else–a second trade, good FAAB acquisition, overachievers–could propel him to points gains. He didn’t understand or agree, never made a trade, and finished hopelessly out of contention.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Don’t try to get too much! When offered a good trade, like selling a house, your first offer might be the best one. As I sit at the bottom of Tout mixed, I regret not taking a trade offered to me by Seth Trachtman. He offered Ozzie Albies for Blake Treinen, while he was still the closer and scuffling, but hadn’t hit the IL yet. Treinen is my only closer, and my chance of gaining points in saves was nil. I countered but he balked. I thought I’d get a better offer. Turned out he picked up saves from the waiver wire, Treinen goes on IL, and still hasn’t regained closers role. So he sits uselessly on my bench, and I’m having a heck of a time getting out of last place. Albies would have helped!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): Trade partners who waste time with pointless offers. I get that, for years, people have heard the stale advice to begin negotiations with the lowball offer or the early-April buy-low, sell-high offer, but there’s so much more information available now and people are better versed in the game to ever fall for either. Do your homework, and get the deal done on the first try, or at worst the first round of counteroffers. A trade really doesn’t require more than 10 minutes. If it sounds like it’ll take more from the first offer, you’ve lost my attention.
Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): I recently had an owner talk down a player that he was trying to acquire. It broke the trust in the negotiation. There should always be the hope and intention that both teams will get better with the deal being made. Especially in Dynasty, there is always a way to make a deal work. Respect and care often gets the job done.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Once you agree to an offer, don’t come back and ask for a “little sweetener.” I’m in one league where after a trade negotiation, I’ll ask my waiter/waitress for an ice tea with a “little FAAB.”
Tim McLeod (Prospect361.com, @RunTMc59006473): A good offer is one that involves satisfying the needs of both parties. If you don’t start the process with that in mind, you’re not getting more than a “thank-you” and that’s only because as a Canadian I have no choice but to be polite. It’s a rule.
Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): The most difficult obstacles to overcome in any trade are the inherent differences in how we all value players. You can make what looks like a fair deal on paper because it benefits the statistical needs of both teams, but you are also assuming that you’re going to get a certain performance level out of the players you receive (and to an extent, the players you trade away also). For instance, earlier this season I nixed a deal for a pitcher because he was experiencing a drop in velocity at the time. My trade partner thought I was crazy to pass up this pitcher because he was asking for a “lesser” player in return. I valued the hitter more than he did and I was biased against the pitcher because of my perception of his health. As a result, we couldn’t make a deal.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): In any trade negotiation, there at least needs to be a starting point. When you create a trade offer, you should do as up front homework as possible. The same applies when you receive a trade offer. If the trade offer received does not even come close to anything that is of benefit to both teams, then why bother sending me a trade offer? My biggest disappointment is when I see the trade offer come in and they ask for players that make no sense for me to trade. And at the same time, they offer me players where they are little to no benefit in return. If I’m leading the league in saves, why bother sending me a trade and you are only offering me another closer.
Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis): One of the biggest things people fail to do is look at what the other team needs. Someone kept sending me offers for closers when that is one the categories that was tight for me and one where I can pick up points. While the trade may seem like a steal isolated, it doesn’t help my team. Make sure the trade can help the other team too or it’s wasting time.
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): Two mistakes I see quite often are trade offers that will help the senders team but don’t fill a need on the other side of the trade. For example, don’t offer me Corey Seager if I have Lindor at SS. Find a need of mine and let’s work out a match. Second, If you are offering 3-5 mediocre players for my superstar guess what…I’m not accepting that trade.
MIke Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): I encounter too many owners who just don’t respond to offers late in the season, perhaps because they’ve turned their attention elsewhere. Sometimes it’s an email gauging interest that never gets a reply, and sometimes it’s an actual offer that just sits there. When these owners are in keeper/dynasty leagues, it makes me less likely to try to negotiate with them in future seasons (whether they’re more willing or not) because I don’t want to waste my time.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Another mistake I see from both sides is categorically adhering to “Never deal the best player in a trade.” Granted, it takes special circumstances to deal quality for quantity, but if your overall roster is better after such a deal, it’s a good deal.
Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): I think a lot of the problems we’re discussing here arise because email and the stat service’s Trade Centers make the trading process way more transactional and a bit colder than, say, talking on your rotary phone is. That’s a reason I recoil when I get an announcement in my email box that says this team offered these five guys for my five guys. My eyes usually glaze over with that approach, though I have to admit a couple of times my eyes have lit up because I had totally different values than the guy making the offer. But in most cases the cold approach is hard to understand, has nothing to do with salesmanship or marketing and usually doesn’t reflect any understanding of my needs. Because I have a hard enough time understanding my needs. All of this is prelude to saying that I like the approach of polling the league, offering something specific or something categorical in return for something categorical. Sample pitch: “Hey, I’m overflowing with Stolen Bases. I can offer steals, steals with homers, and steals with homers and average, in return for Wins, Saves, and good innings pitched of equal value. If you see something, please say something.” I’ll still dig through the rosters of other teams, but letting the league know what you’re doing can unearth surprises and inoculates you against the “I would have offered more” complaints that come up sometimes.
Welcome to our weekly summary of the top free agent bids in
each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action
following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000
base.
After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat,
starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola
of Mastersball and other Touts.
American League
16 free agents were acquired for FAAB this week in the AL.
Mike Podhorzer spent the most, $83, on the Royals’ Ryan O’Hearn. KC’s first sacker to start the season is back from Omaha, replacing Lucas Duda, and should get extended playing time in another opportunity to stick.
Will Sergio Romo close for the Twins, who now have the
Indians hot on their heels? Colton and the Wolfman put down $72 of their money
to acquire the former ninth-inning man of the Marlins.
Matt Duffy of the Rays was also a $72 acquisition, picked up
by Jason Collette. When Jason adds a Tampa Bay player, take special notice.
It was busy in the National League, with 19 players
acquired, though since his trade is not yet official, prospective Marcus
Stroman owners will have to wait a week.
At the top of the league standings, Phil Hertz of BaseballHQ
opened up his pocketbook, spending $194 on Will Smith – the highest price paid
across the five leagues this week. The new Dodgers catcher (not the current
Giants closer) was previously owned, but dropped when sent down earlier in the
season. Phil won’t get Smith’s six RBIs from Saturday, but there should be more
from where that came.
Hertz also spent $57 for Miami reliever Jarlin Garcia. It is
unclear if he or Jose Quijada, Nick Anderson or someone else will pick up the
closing duties for the Fish with Sergio Romo traded, but Garcia did get the
ninth on Sunday (in a non-save situation). Quijada went to Grey Albright for
the substantially lower price of $12. (Anderson was already rostered.)
At $64, former Reds-now new Braves outfielder Adam Duvall
was snapped up by Albright, as well. With Nick Markakis out, at-bats should be
available, and on a better team, who knows what Duvall might do?
An even 20 free agents were added to Mixed Auction rosters
this week.
Leading the way at $112 is the Dodgers’ new backstop, Will
Smith. His new team assignment is with Eric Karabell of ESPN, who came into
Sunday with $843 FAAB compared to the owner with the next-most at just $343. To
observe that Karabell holds the hammer the rest of the way is putting it
mildly.
Chris Martin, who seems to be the leader of the closer
committee for the Rangers currently (unless/until he is traded), joined the roster
of Brent Hershey of BaseballHQ for $37. Also at $37, Baltimore’s Asher Wojciechowski
was acquired by Ron Shander.
Shandler also added Kolten Wong, for $27. The Cardinals second
sacker has improved his OBP recently, reflecting with his entire club’s upward
production.
This time around, the busiest league was Mixed Draft, with
23 free agents finding new homes.
The top dollar player was Will Smith at $102. I wonder if
new owner Tim McLeod was bidding in Canadian dollars…
Ray Murphy of BaseballHQ snapped up Astros hurler Jose
Urquidy for $78. The rookie looked good against the Cardinals this weekend,
with upper-90’s heat, a good changeup as well as a slider. However, with no
idea what Houston plans to do in the trade market this week, Urquidy may or may
not continue to get starts.
Old hand Jason Kipnis joined the roster of Charlie Wiegert
for $71. The 32-year old second sacker for the Tribe has two homers, 10 RBI and
a .386 OBP over the last three weeks. It was capped off by a Saturday grand
slam.
Rotoman, aka Peter Kreutzer, picked up presumed new Marlins
closer Nick Anderson for $58, the same price Adam Ronis paid for Wojciechowski.
Pitching was the focus of the Head to Head combatants with Fangraphs
Paul Sporer submitting the high bid, $54 on the surging Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez
has added a couple ticks to his four seamer, averaging 97 mph while also
throwing his curve and slider more. Further, he’s spinning both secondaries
more, increasing their effectiveness.
The next highest bid came courtesy of Alex Chamberlain from
Rotographs, dropping $45 on Asher Wojciechowski. The Baltimore righty is
exhibiting a new level, fanning 37 to just eight walks in 30 frames.
Rotowire’s Ian Kahn decided $41 was the right bid to see if Nick
Anderson takes over as the Miami Marlins closer.
The top bid on the hitting side belongs to A.J. Mass from ESPN with a
$50 expenditure on the Dodger’s new backstop Will Smith. The club has announced
Smith will be the regular receiver and he celebrated with his fourth homer of
the season on Sunday. Mass also grabbed Reds infielder Josh VanMeter for $50.
The next highest hitter bid came from Dan Strafford, taking a $25
chance Yasmany Tomas will be extended a long look by Arizona.
The other double-digit bids were placed by Sporer, adding catcher
Pedro Severino and starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani, both for $11. Like
Lopez, DeSclafani has recently added a couple ticks to his heater.
