TOUT WARS!

Welcome to the weekly Tout Wars FAAB report, on its new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:20 PM ET to discuss the results.

You can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
ACobb, Bal	Larry Schechter 124	Rob Leibowitz 7	Vlad Sedler 3
DPomeranz, Bos	Larry Schechter 47
WFont, TB	Jason Collette 46	Vlad Sedler 38
THill, KC	Jeff Erickson 43	Larry Schechter 23	Vlad Sedler 6
BMaurer, KC	Vlad Sedler 33
ABibensDirkx, Tex	Vlad Sedler 26
RHerrera, KC	Vlad Sedler 13	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
DJansen, Tor	Patrick Davitt 9
CHerrmann, Sea	Vlad Sedler 6
CaJoseph, Bal	Rob Leibowitz 4
GGreiner, Det	Jason Collette 2
KMcCarthy, KC	Doug Dennis 2	Vlad Sedler 12	Jeff Erickson 5
YDiaz, Cle	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 1
RGoins, KC	Mike Podhorzer 0	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
AAlmonte, KC	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
JBiagini, Tor	Jason Collette 3
FPena, LAA	Vlad Sedler 2
POrlando, KC	Vlad Sedler 2
TMotter, Min	Vlad Sedler 1	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
MHermosillo, LAA	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
DButera, KC	Jason Collette 0

Todd’s Take

Years of research shows more pitching than hitting emerges from the free agent. The jury is still out how helpful these arms will be but there was a preponderance of hurlers purchased this week in AL Tout. Larry Schechter was the big spender, grabbing Alex Cobb and Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz, of course, is on the DL while Cobb is flashing signs of mediocrity with three seven-inning efforts in his last five starts.

Everyone’s heard the expression, “Baseball is a game of inches.” For Wilmer Font, it’s about 18 inches as a shift back to the third base side of the rubber has done wonders for the Rays opener — or is that now full-blown starter? Jason Collette hopes so after Font’s 5.2 inning blanking of the Yankees last time out.

I like Patrick Davitt’s preemptive bid on Blue Jays receiver Danny Jansen. Russell Martin has gotten more attention for being a side-show, playing third, shortstop and outfield than he has for his work behind the plate. A .625 OPS just doesn’t get it done. Meanwhile, Jansen is slashing a tidy .298/.411 /476 at Triple-A Buffalo.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
KHerrera, Was	Brian Walton 101	Steve Gardner 45	Phil Hertz 37
		Tristan H. Cockcroft 15	Grey Albright 11
ASlater, SF	Phil Hertz 81	Craig Mish 11
BMiller, Mil	Mike Gianella 44	Phil Hertz 81	Craig Mish 27
		Scott Wilderman 14	Lenny Melnick 11
HPence, SF	Craig Mish 37	Mike Gianella 17	Phil Hertz 7
		Lenny Melnick 3	Scott Wilderman 0
SDyson, SF	Steve Gardner 37	Brian Walton 101	Grey Albright 29
		Phil Hertz 1
WSmith, SF	Grey Albright 21	Craig Mish 2	Phil Hertz 1
JGant, StL	Grey Albright 21	Phil Hertz 17	Tristan H. Cockcroft 15
JOsuna, Pit	Lenny Melnick 3	Mike Gianella 14	Scott Wilderman 2
JCastillo, SD	Lenny Melnick 2
RMoronta, SF	Tristan H. Cockcroft 1	Grey Albright 5	Todd Zola 0
JBrebbia, StL	Phil Hertz 1
KKaczmarski, NYM	Craig Mish 1	Lenny Melnick 1
AMorgan, Phi	Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
TWilliams, Mil	Todd Zola 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
JHughes, Cin	Steve Gardner 22	Grey Albright 5
ABlandio, Cin	Mike Gianella 6
JFields, LAD	Grey Albright 5
SRodriguez, Pit	Phil Hertz 2	Phil Hertz 1
MSzczur, SD	Craig Mish 1	Mike Gianella 0
VArano, Phi	Grey Albright 1
DMarrero, Ari	Mike Gianella 0
JBarnes, Mil	Phil Hertz 0
PBourjos, Atl	Mike Gianella 0
RErlin, SD	Phil Hertz 0
SAlexander, LAD	Phil Hertz 0
TMcFarland, Ari	Todd Zola 0
YRivera, Mia	Mike Gianella 0

Brian Walton’s Commentary

“Don’t chase saves, they say.”

Well, when you are clawing for any points whatsoever and have potential leverage in the category, when a top arm becomes available, you have to go for it. At least that is what I told myself this week.

Kelvin Herrera was lights out with Kansas City, making him an appealing trade target for the Nationals. The downside is that Washington already has a closer, meaning saves are not assured. On the other coast, Sam Dyson seems to have inherited the job in San Francisco after Hunter Strickland came in second place with a wall in a punching contest.

I decided to get one of them this week, but in hindsight, I probably should have tried to acquire both. I prioritized Herrera higher due to his skills and the fact his team is considerably better. However, my $101 offer only needed to be $48 to edge Steve Gardner of USA TODAY. I was slightly encouraged in that Gardner is based in the DC area and follows the Nats more closely than me and his bids suggest he also favored Herrera.

Steve did add Dyson for $37, which coincidentally is the same price that Craig Mish paid for Dyson’s Giants teammate Hunter Pence. The 35-year old outfielder had a burst of productivity last week, which is pretty much his first sign of life all season to date.

Another Giants outfielder, Austin Slater, fetched the second-most money this week, $81, from Phil Hertz of BaseballHQ. Mish owned Mac Williamson, dispatched to the minors for ineffectiveness. That may have opened up the Giants’ left field job for either Pence or Slater, the latter just up from Triple-A.

Todd’s Take

A few weeks ago, I had three closers and would be looking to deal a couple to a group looking for help in the category. I did deal Brandon Morrow for Gregory Polanco, leaving me Brad Boxberger and Arodys Vizcaino. Now with Vizcaino out, I’m down to one, but after the interest in saves, perhaps I should put Boxberger on the block since I can afford to go without a closer in an effort to make up ground in saves.

Williamson is a good reminder not all of the card-carrying members of the launch-angle revolution are automatically successful. The jury is still out, there’s a good chance Williamson gets it together at Triple-A Sacramento. The point is, Williamson serves as another example of why we need to account for some reversion when analyzing batters with a power spike. I’m sure those investing in Logan Morrison and Justin Smoak are saying, “Now you tell me.”

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION 

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
MTrumbo, Bal	Scott Pianowski 107	Zach Steinhorn 88	Fred Zinkie 40
		Scott Engel 28
FPeralta, Mil	Jeff Zimmerman 87	Derek VanRiper 77	Fred Zinkie 73
		Scott Pianowski 61	Scott Swanay 28
MMinor, Tex	Zach Steinhorn 52	Derek VanRiper 33	Fred Zinkie 17
PStrop, ChC	Scott Swanay 28	Al Melchior 11	Jeff Zimmerman 0
WFont, TB	Al Melchior 28
MFranco, Phi	Tim Heaney 26
BMiller, Mil	Derek VanRiper 23
CSpangenberg, SD	Ron Shandler 18	Scott Engel 4
CDavis, Bal	Ray Flowers 17
TomMurphy, Col	Fred Zinkie 17	Derek VanRiper 11
JBautista, NYM	Scott Engel 14
SRomo, TB	Scott Engel 11	Scott Pianowski 1
DWinkler, Atl	Tim McLeod 7
JHicks, StL	Scott Pianowski 4	Jeff Zimmerman 0
MGarver, Min	Derek VanRiper 3
KYates, SD	Scott Pianowski 1	Jeff Zimmerman 0
SDyson, SF	Scott Pianowski 1	Al Melchior 22	Scott Swanay 7
		Jeff Zimmerman 1
RDavis, Cle	Scott Pianowski 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
ADeSclafani, Cin	Zach Steinhorn 42
SCishek, ChC	Scott Swanay 28
THill, KC	Al Melchior 22	Scott Pianowski 1	Jeff Zimmerman 1
DHolland, SF	Al Melchior 22	Jeff Zimmerman 0
WDifo, Was	Ron Shandler 18
DTravis, Tor	Ron Shandler 8
TWatson, SF	Scott Swanay 7	Jeff Zimmerman 0
MCanha, Oak	Scott Engel 1
JWilson, ChC	Jeff Zimmerman 1
EDiaz, Pit	Derek VanRiper 1
KSmith, CWS	Derek VanRiper 1
ELauer, SD	Jeff Zimmerman 0

Todd’s Take

Knowing when to cut bait and when to ride out a cold spell for an established hitter is one of the biggest challenges in mixed leagues. To be honest, there’s no right or wrong answer. In most cases, team context drives the decision.

When you drop a player like Mark Trumbo, you do so knowing someone else could reap future benefits. Scott Pianowksi hopes Trumbo’s current knee soreness isn’t serious.

After a couple of weeks devoid of two-start options, this is one of the summer’s busiest weeks. Most feel look at two-start pitchers and fear ratios. However, the main benefit of a double-dip is increased whiffs. That is, big picture, more points are gained over the course of the season in strikeouts than are lost in ratios, assuming mostly good choices are made. When a strikeout pitcher like Freddy Peralta has a pair, it’s well worth picking him up.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
KMarte, Ari	Scott White 63	Adam Ronis 23	Ray Murphy 21
AHanson, SF	Scott White 57	Adam Ronis 8
SDyson, SF	Gene McCaffrey 38	Perry Van Hook 3
AMinter, Atl	Adam Ronis 33
SRomo, TB	Greg Ambrosius 21	Charlie Wiegert 12	Adam Ronis 12
		Rudy Gamble 2
JPirela, SD	Greg Ambrosius 21
BSuter, Mil	Rudy Gamble 17	Greg Ambrosius 15	Adam Ronis 12
		Charlie Wiegert 1
KMorales, Tor	Charlie Wiegert 12	Greg Ambrosius 17
LLynn, Min	Charlie Wiegert 12	Adam Ronis 29
FBarreto, Oak	Ray Murphy 11	Adam Ronis 6
BHardy, Det	Charlie Wiegert 10
MHarvey, Cin	Greg Ambrosius 9
ABradley, Ari	Perry Van Hook 7	Rudy Gamble 2
NHundley, SF	Ray Murphy 4
KSmith, CWS	Adam Ronis 4
EDiaz, Pit	Perry Van Hook 3	Adam Ronis 4
KFreeland, Col	Scott White 2

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
BPeacock, Hou	Gene McCaffrey 38	Greg Ambrosius 11
KMcCarthy, KC	Gene McCaffrey 38
AAltherr, Phi	Greg Ambrosius 20
JJeffress, Mil	Greg Ambrosius 17
CMoran, Pit	Greg Ambrosius 15
RGuzman, Tex	Charlie Wiegert 10
DomSmith, NYM	Charlie Wiegert 10
KPlawecki, NYM	Ray Murphy 4
BMcCarthy, Atl	Greg Ambrosius 3
ADeSclafani, Cin	Perry Van Hook 3
THill, KC	Rudy Gamble 2
SCishek, ChC	Rudy Gamble 2
JGant, StL	Charlie Wiegert 2
IKennedy, KC	Charlie Wiegert 2
ONarvaez, CWS	Perry Van Hook 1
KTucker, Hou	Scott White 1
JAlfaro, Phi	Adam Ronis 1
EJimenez, CWS	Scott White 1
ARomine, NYY	Perry Van Hook 1

Perry Van Hook’s Commentary

While there is always the closer hunt – Sam Dyson ($38), A.J. Minter ($33); Sergio Romo ($21); and maybe Archie Bradley ($7); the high bid for the week went to rejuvenated Diamondback middle infielder Ketel Marte who after two hot weeks went for $63 to Scott White.

Wanting to upgrade Maile at C and replace Tyler Anderson (after another disappointing two start week) I went the budget route. I had Bradley on top of my pitcher list and also got my top rated C, Elias Diaz, PIT who should get the majority of the at bats with Francisco Cervelli on the DL. Diaz is very good in OBP leagues.

Todd’s Take

Handicapping saves is akin to reading tea leaves, but with former Ray’s opener notching four saves the past couple of weeks, he’d top my list of would-be closers bid on in the league this week.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
MStroman, Tor	Jeff Mans 88	Peter Kreutzer 7	Dr. Roto 5
FBarreto, Oak	Peter Kreutzer 78	Andrea LaMont 18
CRichard, SD	Andrea LaMont 46	Justin Mason 33	Peter Kreutzer 13
		Jake Ciely 7	Jeff Mans 5
SBieber, Cle	Peter Kreutzer 38	Jeff Mans 33	Jake Ciely 24
		Justin Mason 17	Dr. Roto 17
MMinor, Tex	Jeff Mans 28
NWilliams, Phi	Dr. Roto 16
SLugo, NYM	Justin Mason 15	Michael Rathburn 8	Jake Ciely 7
		Michael Rathburn 6	Dr. Roto 3
AniSanchez, Atl	Jake Ciely 7	Andrea LaMont 1
NEovaldi, TB	Jake Ciely 7	Jeff Mans 15
NAhmed, Ari	Michael Rathburn 6
SMiller, Ari	Michael Rathburn 6	Peter Kreutzer 7	Jake Ciely 7
		Justin Mason 0
DStraily, Mia	Michael Rathburn 6	Justin Mason 0
JPeraza, Cin	Dr. Roto 5	Michael Rathburn 6
KKela, Tex	Dr. Roto 3	Andrea LaMont 1
JJay, Ari	Peter Kreutzer 3	Michael Rathburn 6
CBettis, Col	Justin Mason 1	Dr. Roto 1
DMesoraco, NYM	Jake Ciely 1
JSoria, CWS	Dr. Roto 1

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
JCamargo, Atl	Peter Kreutzer 11	Michael Rathburn 6
TRichards, Mia	Jeff Mans 8
GoHernandez, SF	Michael Rathburn 6
GParra, Col	Michael Rathburn 6	Peter Kreutzer 3
MGonzalez, Hou	Dr. Roto 5
MTrumbo, Bal	Dr. Roto 2
CBassitt, Oak	Jeff Mans 1
CDevenski, Hou	Dr. Roto 1

Todd’s Take

Here’s where you can see the real search for two-start hurlers as it’s all about points in the head to head league. Granted, a poor outing can result in negative points, but the outing has to be really poor and it’s rare there are two such outings in the same week. The key here is to be willing to burn and churn, borrowing the phrase used by Justin Mason when we talked earlier on the Tout Wars Hour along with Lawr Michaels. Especially in a 12-team league, you simply can’t get married to a fringe player. There’s a fine line between aggression and recklessness. The one best able to toe the line usually comes out on top.

Jeff Boggis’ impressive 172.6 points easily won the final week of Period 3 but it wasn’t enough to secure a Golden Ticket. Finishing behind Boggis this week were Bret Sayre and Gene McCaffrey. Sayre, from Baseball Prospectus, finished as the Period 3 winner, securing a spot in the Tout Daily Survivor Finals as well as a T-shirt from Rotowear.

Boggis knew coming into the week he’d need a big score to make a run at a Golden Ticket and he did his part. Unfortunately, a lot of the Touts were also on a Coors stack, and although Jeff got homers from the less-popular Kolten Wong and Kole Calhoun, it still wasn’t enough. In order to click in some of the higher priced Rockies, Boggis deployed the duo of Mike Clevinger and Cole Hamels, hitting pay dirt with each.

Joining Sayre with Period 3 Golden Tickets are Rotogrinder’s Derek Carty and USA Today’s Steve Gardner. Fantasy Alarm’s Rick Wolf leapfrogged Todd Zola into the top overall spot in the race for the wild card entry into the finals. Check out where your favorite Tout stands on the Leaderboard.

Here’s a list of everyone with a Golden Ticket so far: Clay Link (2), Zola (2), Wolf, Ray Murphy, Sayre, Carty and Gardner.

The end of one period signals the beginning of the next so please stop by next Tuesday afternoon as the Touts will share their picks to kick off Period 4.

Here’s Jeff’s week-winning lineup:

It’s the last week of Period 3 in Tout Daily with three Golden Tickets on the line a well as a free t-shirt from Rotowear.

Here’s where the Touts are looking.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt)

Cole Hamels: I’m pretty far back in the overall despite one top-10 finish in the period, so I have to roll the dice a little. Hamels draws the woeful Royals, who are bottom-third in ISO, Hard-Hit% and HR/F vs LHP. I’m also stacking TEX hitters vs Jason Hammel.

Nomar Mazara: ($4,100) Mazara has a career OPS over 1.000 in KC, .884 against finesse pitchers, and .795 against RHP. I like his chances in KC against a finesse righty.

Gene McCaffrey (Wise Guy Baseball, @WiseGuyGene)

Cole Hamels: Cole Hamels – Not expecting greatness, just hoping for decent start against a weak opponent that when paired with a cheaper SP (Romano or Lauer) will enable me to use a heavy Coors Field stack.

Logan Morrison: Logan Morrison vs. Chris Sale seems borderline insane, but LoMo is super-cheap and he loves flyball pitchers.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Mike Clevinger: There are a lot of hitting bargains so although I dabbled with taking Peralta vs Pirates or German at home after two 20 points starts in a row and looking sharp. No one can argue with the upside of Clevinger. That coupled with Sale having a couple of stinkers and the way too high price for Verlander (who I am taking too), Clevinger wins my war for pitching promise.

Jose Ramirez: It is chalk to take Arenado or Story or even Desmond in Coors vs a LHP. I will go to the other LHP who will have trouble with Jose Ramirez. Rodon has great talent, but ramirez has no holes and if Carlos has to challenge him, we could see some fireworks tonight!

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Jameson Taillon: Waffling between Sale and Verlander so looking at a solid but more cost-efficient option at SP2. I’ll take Taillon in PNC vs. the Brew Crew

Dansby Swanson: I’ll have a little Coors exposure but can’t stack – love Swanson on top of Braves order vs. Garcia

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath)

Jason Hammel: His last 5 starts – 31.2 IP, 28 K, 5 BB. At $5K why not?

Brandon Nimmo: Will gladly go Find Nimmo @ Coors

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Chris Sale: Playing for pride this week. Going with Chris Sale tonight at $12,700. Saving the $600 that it would cost me to roster Justin Verlander.

Ian Desmond : Ian Desmond ($4,500) will lead my Colorado stack against Jason Vargas at Coors Field.

Lawr Michaels (CreativeSports2, @lawrmichaels)

Chris Sale: I need a lot of points, but similarly, I need a foundation with hopes my crapshots pay off, thus Sale, a dominant lefty is just that. He faces the Twins, who hit about as soft a .242 (just ten homers) as exists on the planet.

Eric Hosmer: I like Eric Hosmer and his nice little team facing another fun team, but with its starters taking its lumps as it tries to become a big league rotation. That makes Paul Blackburn (1.3 frames, eight runs allowed last start) tonight’s target. I do have a few shares in Athletics hitters, so maybe this will be a run-fest?

How do you rank the following injured pitchers for the rest of the season: Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Shelby Miller, Robbie Ray, Ervin Santana?

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): I wish we didn’t have to deal with this whole mess, with arm after arm hitting the infirmary on a daily basis. The best skills analysis is often thwarted by the continual injuries. It’s brutal. That said, we all have to play the game on even footing, so let’s have at it. If I ranked em’ it would be Kershaw, Ray, Darvish, Santana and Miller. Miller was blasted to the stone age last time out allowing eight runs with nine outs coming back from surgery. Santana has had setbacks with his finger, and he’s thrown 5.1 innings, as of this writing, in 2018, and his return is totally up in the air. The other three are all working their ways back from injury with all hoping for a return before the All-Star Game. Hell, who knows at this point. Ray has predictably regressed, Darvish hasn’t looked like himself at virtually any point, and Kershaw hasn’t been himself either with that back, but a 1.12 WHIP, 9.73 K/9 and 4.82 K/BB ratio prove he can still get outs with the best of them… when his body holds up.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I have to say I just don’t know.

Vlad Sedler (Fantasy Guru Elite, @Rotogut): Kershaw – Ray – Darvish – Santana – Miller — It won’t be a completely lost season for Kershaw as I’d expect for him to right his ship after the All-Star break and deliver top 8 SP roto numbers. Ray should be back soon and that humidor should help him just as it has his rotation-mates. Those whiffs are dreamy, but they come with the warts that are walks on walks on walks. Darvish has been broken, cursed, whatever you want to call it, since the World Series. His 12% walk rate is a career high and his lack of control is the issue that will continue to plague him. He only gets the nod over Santana because Erv continues to have setbacks in his road to recovery and he may be hard-pressed to provide value to fantasy owners who have been patiently waiting. Not to be stubborn, but “never again” for me and Shelby Miller. I won’t be bidding for his services even though he may occasionally post solid starts in Chase Field. Those blowups will occur far too often.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Kershaw and then a wide gulf.  The truth is, I have no idea whether Kershaw is just going to reset and blow ’em away July through playoffs or if he is going to have another problem in two weeks. But I’d still take him over the others because he could blow ’em away. After that, Ray, I guess, but he wasn’t all that consistent even before he hurt his oblique. I might go for those Ks, but it will cost you in WHIP, I’d expect–especially in the early going.  I might rather someone else jump on him and then trade for him if he struggles initially but proves healthy. After Kershaw and Ray, I’m done. I don’t want what Darvish would cost when he hasn’t really done anything to create a glimmer of hope and I don’t see Santana or Miller providing anything positive at all.  It is all idle guessing, though, until we see them performing (for better or worse) in MLB games.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Since players returning from injury are usually a crapshoot, the safe answer here is clearly Kershaw as top dog. Then given his track record, you have to rank Darvish second. I’d go with Ray third, following by Santana, and lastly Shelby Miller. I projected Ray to post ratios somewhere in between his bloated 2016 and breakout 2017 marks, and the humidor in Arizona should benefit him. I was a fan of Miller’s when he enjoyed a velocity surge last season before succumbing to an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. I don’t bet on TJ returnees.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): The flip side of Kershaw’s having missed so much time w/ back injuries the last few seasons is that he has a track record of being able to pitch effectively after returning from them. The others? Who knows – I never know what to expect when a pitcher returns from an arm, elbow, shoulder, or hand injury. I’ll go w/ Darvish, Santana, Ray, and Miller, but that’s admittedly a SWAG.

Stephania Bell (ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Stephania_ESPN): My ranking: Kershaw, Ray, Darvish, Miller, Santana. Obviously there are no guarantees when it comes to returning from injuries…but if anyone has shown an ability to return from injury and pitch effectively, it’s Kershaw. The difference this time is that he isn’t coming off a stellar start to the season; his fastball velocity has dipped and his home run yield is higher than normal. Most concerning is the amount of time he’s been unavailable between the biceps tendinitis and now his back…again. BUT…given the options here, the upside of Kershaw is far higher than the others and if he continues to progress on his current path, he could deliver better results – even if he isn’t at peak Kershaw performance – in the second half of the season. As for the others, Ray is nearing a return which keeps him ahead of Darvish who may not come back until the second half. Both offer the potential for strikeouts but Ray is pitching in rehab games currently while Darvish has yet to face live hitters. Not finding a lot to be thrilled about with either Santana or Miller but Miller is ahead of Santana (as of this moment) when it comes to approaching a return. Miller had a lousy rehab outing recently where he gave up eight runs but followed it with a nice bounceback performance. Pitchers are often inconsistent early in their return from TJ surgery but he is at least throwing all of his pitches and, as of yet, isn’t dealing with unusual soreness. Meanwhile, Santana has had some setbacks due to discomfort in his middle finger post-op, still isn’t throwing all his pitches and is eight years older than Miller. Santana could be back for the second half but there is still uncertainty there and that’s enough for me to rank him below Miller.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I wish I shared my response before Stephania since I’m in lockstep with her reply, though there’s one major difference. This is her realm while I’m just reading tea leaves, though admittedly a semi-educated reading from lessons I’ve learned from her and Rick Wilton over the years.

As an aside, while I don’t want to apologize to my fellow Touts for this question, I recognize crystal ball questions aren’t our favorite to answer. More hedging on my part – it’s not quite unfair to have asked this, since the answers are likely of interest to fantasy managers. That said, with Stephania being the obvious exception, some of our answers fall under the mantra “your guess is as good as ours”. This is also germane to questions like who will get the saves for the Royals and who will be traded at the deadline. With the disclaimer this is my opinion and not necessarily that of the Tout brethren, but in most cases, it’s your team, your call. Find expertise most apropos to the question and use it to formulate your own opinion. Again, speaking for me, I don’t know if it’s Kevin McCarthy or Tim Hill (as an example). Your guess is as good as mine.

Welcome to the weekly Tout Wars FAAB report, on its new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:20 PM ET to discuss the results.

You can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
JBlash, LAA	Jason Collette 80
YMendez, Tex	Vlad Sedler 59
RRodriguez, Det	Chris Liss 54	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
DFletcher, LAA	Rob Leibowitz 44	Jeff Erickson 23	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 23
JLamb, LAA	Chris Liss 33	Vlad Sedler 39	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 6
FMejia, Cle	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 23
RGrossman, Min	Jeff Erickson 17	Jason Collette 40	Patrick Davitt 0
JAlvarez, LAA	Jason Collette 14	Seth Trachtman 0
KSmith, CWS	Vlad Sedler 12	Patrick Davitt 0	Rob Leibowitz 0
RTorreyes, NYY	Patrick Davitt 2	Rob Leibowitz 0	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
CoJoseph, Bal	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 2
BRondon, CWS	Seth Trachtman 0	Rob Leibowitz 38
JBriceno, LAA	Patrick Davitt 0	Rob Leibowitz 0
WHarris, Hou	Patrick Davitt 0	Chris Liss 7
AWynns, Bal	Rob Leibowitz 0
TWhite, Hou	Rob Leibowitz 0
AClaudio, Tex	Patrick Davitt 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
FPena, LAA	Vlad Sedler 17
RElias, Sea	Jason Collette 14
TraThompson, CWS	Jeff Erickson 11
AAlmonte, KC	Chris Liss 9
VReyes, Det	Chris Liss 9
WFont, TB	Vlad Sedler 6
CHatcher, Oak	Jason Collette 1
RTorres, KC	Rob Leibowitz 0	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
JDiekman, Tex	Rob Leibowitz 0
RRua, Tex	Rob Leibowitz 0
TMotter, Min	Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
CShreve, NYY	Patrick Davitt 0
DOtero, Cle	Patrick Davitt 0
JoeSmith, Hou	Patrick Davitt 0
NVincent, Sea	Patrick Davitt 0
ZMcAllister, Cle	Patrick Davitt 0
HVelazquez, Bos	Chris Liss 0

Todd’s Take

Jabari Blash again crushed Triple-A pitching, this time for Salt Lake. The Angels promoted him, giving him a look while Kole Calhoun is on the DL. Of course, Calhoun was in a season-long rut before getting hurt, so there’s a chance Blash can keep his MLB roster spot when Calhoun returns, perhaps as Calhoun’s platoon partner. Blash has been given chances in the bigs previously, only to strike out… literally. Blash can take a walk so there’s extra allure in an OBP like Tout Wars in the event Blash can improve his contact rate. Curiously, Jason Collette was the only Tout willing to see if Blash can blast, though there are rumors Derek Carty has petitioned to be transferred to the AL so he could place a bid.

The second highest bid also went uncontested as Vlad Sedler is willing to give Yohander Mendez a shot, perhaps because he has a relatively soft matchup with the Royals in Kauffman Stadium lined up. Mendez is only 23 so there’s still time, but the prospect shine is beginning to wear off. He’s not overpowering, thus will need to rely on command and control to get by, especially in Arlington. At minimum, Mendez has a chance to stay in the rotation, after all this is a club summoning Yovani Gallardo.

I was wrong once before with Ronny Rodriguez, it could happen again, but as before, I like Chris Liss’ pickup. Niko Goodrum has displaced Dixon Machado at second base. That said, Goodrum has also been playing first, where he could shift against left-handers, clearing second for Rodriguez.

David Fletcher is an intriguing pickup. He was called up from Salt Lake after posting a .953 OPS. Andrelton Simmons is back but with Zack Cozart still out, there’s infield AB available. I like Rodriguez’s shot at playing time more, but stranger things have happened.

Of the other pickups, Robbie Grossman and Kevan Smith are both potentially useful in a deep AL league and I’m a little surprised both were available.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
EDiaz, Pit	Steve Gardner 26	Phil Hertz 18
CFerguson, LAD	Todd Zola 23	Tristan H. Cockcroft 1	Derek Carty 0
BZiegler, Mia	Steve Gardner 4
TomHunter, Phi	Brian Walton 2
KHiura, Mil	Grey Albright 2

Todd’s  Take

Yawn. When the high bid is on a middling reserve catcher, you know it’s a  slow week. I need to make up ground in strikeouts in a big way. It’s not that Ferguson is a strikeout machine, but he starts and I could use the volume.

The only other acquisition of note is Keston Hiura. League leader Grey Albright’s MO is to go for the throat so he’s willing to take the chance the Brewers finally grow tired of playing musical chairs at second, turning to their 20-year old prospect on the fast track. Hiura only has 60 PA above A-Ball, but he’s raked at every level, exhibiting the power-speed combo yearned for in fantasy.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION 

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
JJay, Ari	Bret Sayre 103	Scott Engel 11	Tim Heaney 11
ZEflin, Phi	Scott Swanay 57	Ron Shandler 47	Scott Engel 8
SPiscotty, Oak	Tim Heaney 56	Scott Swanay 0	0
JLoaisiga, NYY	Jeff Zimmerman 54	Derek VanRiper 47	Tim Heaney 16
		Scott Engel 9
SDominguez, Phi	Ray Flowers 41	Scott Swanay 34	Bret Sayre 1
		Tim McLeod 1
AMinter, Atl	Scott Swanay 34
DRodriguez, SF	Jeff Zimmerman 27	Jeff Zimmerman 13
DFletcher, LAA	Jeff Zimmerman 24
BZobrist, ChC	Ray Flowers 23	Scott Swanay 0
CStratton, SF	Bret Sayre 23	Ray Flowers 3	Tim Heaney 3
KMorales, Tor	Ray Flowers 17	Scott Swanay 0
FHernandez, Sea	Tim Heaney 16
MFiers, Det	Joe Pisapia 15
PSandoval, SF	Scott Pianowski 13	Ray Flowers 6	Bret Sayre 5
		Scott Swanay 0	Tim Heaney 0
CMoran, Pit	Scott Swanay 13	Ray Flowers 15	Bret Sayre 5
		Tim Heaney 0
AMondesi, KC	Al Melchior 11
SBieber, Cle	Tim McLeod 6
JLamb, LAA	Ron Shandler 5	Jeff Zimmerman 0
YSanchez, CWS	Bret Sayre 5	Scott Swanay 0	Jeff Zimmerman 0
LChisenhall, Cle	Scott Engel 3	Scott Swanay 0
INova, Pit	Scott Pianowski 0	Scott Swanay 13	Tim Heaney 6
		Jeff Zimmerman 0
EHernandez, LAD	Scott Swanay 0
JMercer, Pit	Scott Swanay 0

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
DValencia, Bal	Jeff Zimmerman 14	Scott Swanay 13	Ray Flowers 13
KYates, SD	Scott Swanay 13	Ray Flowers 7
LForsythe, LAD	Scott Swanay 13	Tim Heaney 0	Scott Swanay 0
DomSmith, NYM	Ray Flowers 13	Bret Sayre 5
CDavis, Bal	Ray Flowers 11
TAnderson, Col	Scott Swanay 7	Tim McLeod 0
CSpangenberg, SD	Tim Heaney 4	Scott Swanay 0
EFedde, Was	Jeff Zimmerman 4	Jeff Zimmerman 0
ADeSclafani, Cin	Tim Heaney 3
JHammel, KC	Ray Flowers 3	Jeff Zimmerman 0
DWinkler, Atl	Ray Flowers 2
MAndriese, TB	Ron Shandler 1
AGarrett, Cin	Bret Sayre 1
DCastillo, TB	Tim McLeod 0
MStrahm, SD	Tim Heaney 0
TGlasnow, Pit	Tim Heaney 0
WDifo, Was	Scott Swanay 0
CFerguson, LAD	Jeff Zimmerman 0
DHolland, SF	Jeff Zimmerman 0
ELauer, SD	Jeff Zimmerman 0

Todd’s Take

Busy week for the Mixed Auction crew, let’s touch on the pitching since the hitting is pretty much decent batters filling holes.

We’ve got Zach Eflin, Jonathan Loaisiga, Dereck Rodriguez, Felix Hernandez, Mike Fiers, Shane Bieber, John Lamb and Ivan Nova finding new homes with six more starters remaining available as non-awarded contingency bids.

Eflin is a little like Dylan Covey – working under the shroud of more velocity, though the underlying metrics are kinder to Eflin, especially a healthier swinging strike rate. Of the group, I agree with the bid hierarchy, Eflin has the most upside.

The next highest bid belongs to Loaisiga, who earned another start after keeping the Rays in check in his debut. It may have been a scoreless five frames, but Loaisiga did walk four. It’s telling Jeff Zimmerman bid on Loaisiga as well as Rodriguez but not Hernandez or Fiers. Sure, there’s a chance one of the veterans goes on a run, but why not take a chance on the devil we don’t know? It comes down to team needs and level of risk aversion. I don’t blame those shooting for upside or question those preferring the tried and true, knowing what they have to work with.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
JLoaisiga, NYY	Jeff Boggis 152	D.J. Short 25	Adam Ronis 3
FMejia, Cle	Michael Beller 77
JHicks, Det	Tim McCullough 63	Gene McCaffrey 58	Adam Ronis 32
SLugo, NYM	D.J. Short 40	Tim McCullough 32	Adam Ronis 16
TKemp, Hou	D.J. Short 30	Perry Van Hook 5
TomMurphy, Col	Rudy Gamble 27
TNaquin, Cle	Perry Van Hook 23
TAnderson, Col	Perry Van Hook 23	Jeff Boggis 12
SBieber, Cle	Perry Van Hook 22
SWright, Bos	Tim McCullough 22	D.J. Short 25	Adam Ronis 16
		Perry Van Hook 7
DTravis, Tor	Ray Murphy 18
WAdames, TB	Adam Ronis 14
AniSanchez, Atl	Adam Ronis 3

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
KMarte, Ari	Ray Murphy 18	Perry Van Hook 5	Adam Ronis 1
PSandoval, SF	Ray Murphy 18
DHolland, SF	Perry Van Hook 7
JPirela, SD	Perry Van Hook 7
AHanson, SF	Adam Ronis 6
HPerez, Mil	Ray Murphy 4
CPinder, Oak	Adam Ronis 6
KYates, SD	Adam Ronis 3
AMondesi, KC	Adam Ronis 1
JusMiller, Was	Adam Ronis 1

Perry Van Hook’s Commentary

High bid from the nine Touts bidding this week was $152 for new Yankee starter Jonathan Loaisiga by Jeff Boggis. I needed to fill some empty spots on my roster (ie. too many players on the DL) and won all my top choices – Cleveland fly-chaser Tyler Naquin for $23; Rockies starter Tyler Anderson (yes again) for two starts also for $23; and with Carlos Carrasco going on the DL, I added Shane Bieber for $22 (subsequently called up to start Sunday’s game). I over thought Bieber, thinking some other Touts would put the two events together and raised what would have been a winning $13 bid to $22. Hopefully he pitches well enough next week to make me forget the nine dollars.

Todd’s Take

I’m really surprised Willy Adames only drew one bid. It’s pretty clear he’s up to stay, even with Adeiny Hechavarria off the DL. Hechavarria is ticketed for a backup role while Adames will be the regular shortstop. Adames has been hitting in a decent lineup spot so even in a lesser offense, he’ll chip in across the board.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

PLAYER	WINNING BID
JBarria, LAA	Kyle Elfrink 89	Dr. Roto 26	Jake Ciely 11
		Peter Kreutzer 2	Clay Link 2
BAnderson, Mia	Stephania Bell 38	Peter Kreutzer 37	Andrea LaMont 19
		Dr. Roto 12	Michael Rathburn 8
MEstrada, Tor	Paul Sporer 28
KBarraclough, Mia	Stephania Bell 23
JHeyward, ChC	Andrea LaMont 22
FPeralta, Mil	Dr. Roto 20	Jake Ciely 3
AHanson, SF	Dr. Roto 17
BSuter, Mil	Michael Rathburn 15	Dr. Roto 10	Paul Sporer 4
		Clay Link 1
SKingery, Phi	Dr. Roto 14	Paul Sporer 4
JLoaisiga, NYY	Jake Ciely 11	Clay Link 3	Peter Kreutzer 2
JHammel, KC	Michael Rathburn 8
DRodriguez, SF	Jake Ciely 6	Justin Mason 5	Paul Sporer 4
TomMurphy, Col	Paul Sporer 5	Michael Rathburn 0
ELauer, SD	Justin Mason 5
RLopez, CWS	Justin Mason 5	Peter Kreutzer 3	Michael Rathburn 0
CKuhl, Pit	Peter Kreutzer 3	Stephania Bell 3	Clay Link 1
FGalvis, SD	Michael Rathburn 2
EDiaz, Pit	Michael Rathburn 2
SMatz, NYM	Clay Link 1	Peter Kreutzer 3

UNAWARDED BIDS

PLAYER
JusMiller, Was	Paul Sporer 11
LBrinson, Mia	Dr. Roto 10
CRichard, SD	Michael Rathburn 5
EAdrianza, Min	Michael Rathburn 4
PBlackburn, Oak	Michael Rathburn 4
SLugo, NYM	Michael Rathburn 2	Jake Ciely 2	Clay Link 1
CCulberson, Atl	Michael Rathburn 1
CBassitt, Oak	Justin Mason 0

Todd’s Take

Nice pull by Stephania Bell with Brian Anderson as the Marlins have a weekend series in Coors. Also very slick knowing to bid exactly $1 more than Peter Kreutzer.

Speaking of Coors, Tom Murphy has finally been advanced to the majors. The list of Colorado catchers expected to be fantasy gold more because of the name on the front of their uniform is long. Like many of the others, Murphy has power but needs to ratchet up his contact to take advantage.

PLEASE NOTE: Due to a personal commitment, next week’s report will be posted a few hours later than normal. Thanks for understanding – Todd

Brian Walton from CreativeSports edged out Fantasy Alarm’s Rick Wolf to take down this week’s Tout Daily contest. Razzball’s Rudy Gamble finished in third.

Walton debunked a common DFS myth by using both pitchers in the Phillies-Rockies affair. Aaron Nola outdueled Jonathan Gray for the win, but with bother hurlers fanning ten, the points piled up. Walton got big nights from Joey Votto, Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers, but it was Cody Bellinger’s late-night heroics supplying his slim 1.6 point margin. Check out Brian’s week-winning roster below.

Brian’s big night propelled him to third in the Period 3 standings with Derek Carty still the leader, 12.35 points ahead of Bret Sayre. Bret is just 1.9 points in front of Brian. Next week should be exciting as it’s the final week of this period and five competitors are with 20 points of third place. Three more Golden Tickets to the Tout Daily Survivor Tournament Finals will be awarded after next week’s action.

Todd Zola remains the overall points leader in quest of a wild card entry into the finals. However, The Wolfman’s second place finish this week vaulted him into second overall, cutting Zola’s lead to a precarious 15.8 points. Clay Link dropped to third overall. Here’s the Leaderboard.

Make sure to check out our picks for next week’s contest Tuesday night, around 6 PM ET, 3 PM PT.

Here’s Brian’s roster:

Gene McCaffrey (Wise Guy Baseball, @WiseGuyGene)

Jon Gray: Jon Gray – High strikeout floor and always a decent chance to dominate outside of Coors.

Freddie Freeman: Freddie Freeman is expensive but about the surest bat to put up some points

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath)

Miles Mikolas: Milos Mikolas – Been a beast at home vs. weak SDP lineup

Max Muncy: Max Muncy – Riding that hot hand. vs BFBC

Lawr Michaels (CreativeSports2, @lawrmichaels)

Eduardo Rodriguez: Boston takes on Baltimore, who are mediocre against lefties, hitting just .232 with 163 strikeouts.

Christian Yelich: Yelich has a sweet .410 OBP at home and goes against Tyler Chatwood — who has allowed 56 walks over 58 innings, and boasts a WHIP of 1.78 — meaning some phat pitches will be out there for the Brewers flychaser.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Miles Mikolas: As much as I like both Aaron Nola ($12,000) and Jonathan Gray ($8,000) tonight, but they face each other and my concern is the “who gets the win” factor. Miles Mikolas has been outstanding. In his last 10 games, he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs 9 times.

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo is good for at least an RBI tonight. He’s had at least 1 RBI in 8 straight games.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Jon Gray: Re-ran my numbers and have to go with Gray, Phillies highest K% vs. RHP

Travis Shaw: Usually don’t stack in Tout Daily, but I want all the Brewers. Chatwood needs 109.2 IP without a walk to lower BB/9 to 3.0.

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella)

Clay Buchholz: I’m as surprised as you are. But Buchholz has pitched well since his first four starts as a Diamondback, and the peripherals have caught up to the ERA in his last two starts. The humidor has helped, and I’ll take Clay at home against a Pirates offense that has struggled away from PNC Park this season.

Aaron Judge: I’m not an xFIP believer, but if Tanner Roark’s low whiff rates against righties are going to catch up with him anywhere it will be at Yankee Stadium and against the Bombers’ formidable lineup. Judge is hardly a bargain but my non-ace strategy allows me to play a couple of big bats tonight.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz)

Foltynewicz and Gray: Chasing strikeouts with this combo.

Willy Adames: At $3,300 vs righty Jamie Garica at Toronto. Modest power/speed combo worth a try here.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Aaron Nola, CC Sabathia: I’m going to pay up for Nola, guessing he won’t be highly owned. Sabathia as a -165 favorite also appeals to me – he’s been much better at home.

Kris Bryant: Chase Anderson’s recent form has been pretty rough, and Bryant has some juicy BvP numbers against him. Plus all the focus is on Tyler Chat-would-prefer-not.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)

CC Sabathia: This is largely a bet against Tanner Roark, who has been more susceptible against lefties and now goes into a park that boosts left-handed power. Roark also has almost as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts.

Mike Moustakas: Sal Romano has given up at least one homer in 10 of his 13 starts. It seems like a good spot for Moustakas to break out of his little slide.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Eduardo Rodriguez: Rodriguez has a 10.5 K/9 and the best RHH Manny Machado is 6 for 31 with ZERO RBI vs him. BAL bats .231 vs E-Rod and he has been really sharp and consistent with 4 straight 20+ DraftKings points performances.

Joey Votto: Joey Votto has been great in his last 10 games hitting .432. He has a .911 OPS vs Kennedy who is awful vs LHHs. Stacking Reds with Votto in the middle of that.

This week’s question is:

What are some of the mistakes you see made when managing fantasy teams?

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): The biggest mistake I see is trade analysis. Too often, the focus is on the involved players in a vacuum. The game isn’t played in a vacuum. It’s too bad, batted balls would travel really far, but things like breathing would be tough. Context is everything. Trade evaluation should be roster before versus roster after, with the focus on which offers greater points potential. It’s not my hitter for your pitcher, at least in terms of analysis. The analysis is my roster with the replacement for the hitter I’m losing plus your pitcher, less the one he replaces versus my current roster. Oh yeah, trades aren’t about winning or losing — they’re about both sides benefiting. The add-on to this is too many care only about winning a trade, not helping their team.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): Some idiot in the auction mixed Tout Wars league started Greg Bird over Miguel Andujar in his UT spot this week. In all seriousness though, I think we — all fantasy players, not just Touts — are making too many errors in the lineup setting process. I think it’s easy to get hooked on granular data, or to make what seem like toss-up decisions without a well-reasoned process, and we are probably losing more standings points than we even realize with the decisions we’re making each week.

Paul Sporer (Fangraphs, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Sporer): Trying to find actionable information from every start definitely plagues the fantasy community. Mediocre pitcher throws a gem — wow, must get him everywhere!!; stud throws a dud — OH NO, IS HE DYING?? — The ebbs and flows of a season will shine a light on fifth starters several times a year and a cast a cloud over aces from time-to-time as well. Don’t assume something is markedly different because a single performance doesn’t match the season or career trend.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Know your league rules! Know how to operate/navigate your league website! These are so basic that it is embarrassing to even mention them. (and yet!) I think the biggest mistake is that owners go on tilt after a particularly bad week and make short-term moves that won’t pan out, long-term. Don’t forget the hot streak against a bad team is far less predictive than rolling projections. Caveat to that: playing time shifts.  If you see a playing time shift, that is going to matter to your counting stats. Finally, the 10-day DL is wreaking havoc with weekly lineups. It is frustrating for everyone, so all I can advise is have a reliable set of sources and stay on it as best you can.

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): Playing afraid. You can’t be paralyzed by fear. You can’t be afraid of being laughed at. If you think a move makes sense, trust yourself. If you never drop a player and later regret it, at some point in the season, you’re playing far too tentatively. Obviously I’m not saying you should do reckless things; don’t drop Paul Goldschmidt for some flavor of the week. But the fantasy owners I view as the biggest threats to win are those who are selectively aggressive. Better to swing and miss than to never swing at all.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): The biggest mistake I see people making is that they think if they aren’t doing something they aren’t doing anything. There are some folks who seemingly think that the person who makes the most moves a season wins. I receive questions from the same people nearly daily, all season long. They make a deal, and then two days later they are making another. They add a player, usually a rookie, give him a week, and then want to add the next guy called up. They have ADHD. Baseball isn’t a game that should be played in this manner, but many seemingly haven’t figured that out yet.

Lawr Michaels (CreativeSports2, @lawrmichaels): Everything my comrades have noted rings true for me. And, in particular, the impatience of player success often boils down to performance. I remember dumping Sean Doolittle a few years back when he was just back from injury, and not yet re-established as the Oakland closer. He had even been pitching well, but got tattooed one particular Sunday and I needed to drop someone and that bad day from him meant a bad day all around. Dumb emotional response. So, try to abstract yourself from your moves: think about how they should work out, and ideally, what your path might be if things don’t work as anticipated. And, for sure, if your team is working well, it is easy to get complacent. Don’t!

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): Too many fantasy managers swing for the fences with every trade offer. This manifests itself in two ways: 1) People think they have to get a clear “win” on every trade. This approach can work in a weaker league, where you can find at least 3-4 competitors who are perennial bottom feeders. But in a league like Tout, this approach makes little if any sense. 2) Too many offers begin with someone asking for the best or second best player on your roster. Sometimes a blockbuster makes sense, but frequently the best trades are the ones that involve a lesser player or players. The notion of moving Mike Trout for Justin Verlander is fun, but trades like this typically cause too much disruption and are robbing Peter to pay Paul. I find that fantasy managers who only make offers like this do so because they’re not paying close attention and/or are in too many other leagues and haven’t taken the time to look at my team’s roster or needs.

Todd Zola: All saves are not created equal. Relievers WHIP and ERA matter! An elite closer can earn one or two roto-points each in K, WHIP and ERA as compared to an average closer. That grows when comparing to a below-average closer. Of course, this is based on average standings. Your league may not have the same categorical distribution so there are some instances the difference is less than that. However, it can also be more so while it’s contextual, more often than not a better closer helps in more than just saves. Don’t pay for saves is viable, in certain formats. The deeper the league, the less applicable the mantra tends to be. It’s about supply and demand. The deeper the league, the fewer options avail themselves in season with a higher demand for their services. Sometimes, you end up with Bud Norris and look like a genius. Others, you get Tyler Clippard and feel like a fool.

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): My biggest bugaboo has already been mentioned, but it’s important enough to repeat: Throwing darts with small sample sizes is maddening. This is not fantasy football.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Giving up on players too soon and jumping on a hot player too soon. Paul Goldschmidt, as an example, is not going to hit .200 all year long, even with the humidor. And Nick Markakis is not going to end the year with a .330 batting average. Everyone has hot and cold streaks, and things will tend to average out unless there is a clear reason to think something has changed, such as playing hurt, etc.

Todd Zola: The balance between patience and aggressiveness play seems to be a common theme. Something to keep in mind is we all come from different backgrounds in terms of formats we play and disseminate info for. The shallower the league, and more frequent the transactions, the more the format lends itself to aggressive play. Note, there’s a difference between aggressive and reckless, but some here likely deem what many consider aggressive to be reckless. The most common league size is 10-team mixed. The majority of these permit daily moves. The advice apropos to this format is much different from a deeper mixed league with weekly moves, let alone AL or NL only. This is the main reason I feel the NFBC first got it right with 15-teams, to be followed by Tout and LABR. Educated churn is a big part of play with reckless abandon being punished. I feel 12-team leagues require taking a few more chances, on what some may consider too small a sample to act. There’s nothing wrong with playing the shallower formats – and there’s nothing wrong with not playing due to the churning nature. However, when we dole out advice, context is everything. There’s no one-size-fits-all dictum.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1): What mistakes haven’t I made? That is why we wrote down the SMART system. We need to keep ourselves in check on a set of rules. My biggest mistake is always over-valuing middle range starting pitching. When drafting, a player will come up early and I will overbid because I like him and then a better player will go for $2. Generally, I am too aggressive with moves in season. A good pitcher has 3 bad starts in April and I cut him. Then he wins six in a row. Everyone makes mistakes. Be self-compassionate so that you can not make the same mistake yet not second guess yourself the next time. Many times the result is the only thing that is bad. You went through your analysis and it all made sense. That is not a mistake. That is happenstance.

Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): The most common mistake I see from people is complacency. Fantasy baseball is a long season and not being diligent in setting your lineups, making pickups, and examining the standings cost people leagues. If you are unable to stay on top of your team(s) then it will undoubtedly cost you from being as good as you can be. Especially as fantasy football preseason begins to ramp up, people inevitably let baseball take a backseat. This can be a good time for diligent baseball owners to make up ground just by staying on top of things.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I saw wisdom in every previous post.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs and Fantrax, @jeffwzimmerman): Know your league rules. I should know as I am one of the biggest violator of this mistake. For example, I participated in Tout Wars for one and half seasons before I knew DL’ed players could be traded in for FAAB dollars. Additionally, I didn’t know injured players could be moved in-and-out of lineup mid-week. I should have known and now make corrections. My recommendation when joining a league, try to go over all the rules and note the most important ones (e.g. minimum innings pitched), especially ones related to the draft or auction. A month or so later, they should be reread again. By this point, an owner will understand 90% of the rules and can concentrate on the few they missed.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Overreacting to small sample sizes, for both positive and negative results. On the flip side, remaining attached to/invested in players who you drafted/purchased at the beginning of the season – unless your league has caps on the number of transactions you can make during the course of a week or season, seeking out even marginal upgrades to your roster usually pays off over the course of a season.