TOUT WARS!

Week 1 of Tout Daily is in the books with Rotowire’s Clay Link lapping the field, posting an impressive 197.3 points, nearly 22 more than second place finisher Michael Beller from Sports Illustrated and almost 21 ahead of Brian Walton from CreativeSports2.

This is our fourth year playing Tout Daily. Rotogrinder’s Derek Carty is the defending champion. CDM’s Charlie Wiegert won the inaugural contest in 2015 with BaseballHQ’s Patrick Davitt earning the title in 2016.

Tout Daily consists of five four-week periods, with the top-three in each period earning a Golden Ticket into the three-day Survivor Tournament, crowning a new champion. The overall points leader heading into the Survivor Tournament also is awarded a Golden Ticket.

Links’ lineup (posted below) was spearheaded by pitching, featuring Stephen Strasburg and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Link was the only Tout to click on Ryu and his oustanding 32.3 performance. Several of Link’s hitters enjoyed big games, led by Trevor Story’s homer and steal, scoring a run while knocking in a pair.

Starting next Tuesday, the Touts will be sharing a pitcher and hitter to consider for your DFS lineups. Look for that late afternoon. Follow us on Twitter at @ToutWars for alerts when all our great content is posted, including Sunday’s Tout Wars FAAB report and Monday’s ToutTable.

The 2018 Tout Daily Daily Leaderboard  can be found HERE. Here’s Clay’s winning lineup.

Welcome to a new feature, our inaugural ToutTable, a round table featuring the Tout Warriors. Each week,  a question will be posed, with the comments posted every Monday.

This week’s query:

What do you look for early in the season? How quickly do you act on unexpected performance? Is there anything in particular you look for when evaluating early-season production?

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): Looking for the obvious – injuries and who will gain at bats is easy, but I think good fantasy players look for the player who “might” – inherit some save chances; have a shot at being put into the rotation or supplant a starting hitter who may be “tiring” or has an injury that might take him out of the lineup. I look at the stat rates of the players I see on the horizon.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): First I’m looking to fill gaps on my roster coming out of the draft. So, for example, this year in Tout I left myself with a Big Two and a little seven pitching staff, so I’m looking for any possibilities to improve the staff. Separately I’m looking for surprises in playing time and/or performance and whether there is any reason to suspect that the “surprise” will be continuing.

Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated, @MBeller): Just like Charles Van Doren loved to do in Quiz Show, I’m going to take the second part first. I act pretty quickly on unexpected performance. For evidence of that, look no further than my $87 bid on Matt Davidson in Tout Mixed Draft. You don’t have time to wait for proof in even moderately competitive leagues. If you want to strike gold, or even silver, on the waiver wire, you need to take the plunge with little more than 10 or 20 plate appearances pushing you over the edge. No matter your league parameters, there’s going to be plenty of roster churn in those last few spots. If you take a big early swing and miss, it doesn’t much matter. Plus, swinging for the fences and missing is in vogue these days. Consider yourself part of the launch angle revolution. What do I look for early in the season? Substantive change in players we thought we knew. A good example from the first week of this season is Jake Odorizzi throwing 17 curve balls, which matched a career high and was just the 10th time in 127 career starts he threw 10 or more curves. Any time a veteran shows us something new, we should take notice.

Tim Heaney (Rotowire, @Tim_Heaney): The short answer: Context matters, for all. The slightly longer answer has several steps. What do I look for early in the season? Realistic performance that can translate into a large role. Sometimes, even in small sample sizes, truths can be revealed about whether a player improves or declines. Has a pitcher added a new pitch or delivery? Did a batter change something about his swing? As for how quickly I act on unexpected performance, I do my best to deduce whether such a development is based on good or bad luck, then go from there. Is a player doing well because he’s churning out hard contact, or is everything just falling in? Is a pitcher stranding an above-normal amount of runners? Piece the data points together, and you can glean a somewhat clear picture about their future. The final key element I try to accomplish early in the year: Stash as many promising names as possible *before* hype kicks in — and their FAAB price climbs.

Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Look at playing time changes….Monitor batting orders….Give some hitters a break due to cold weather…Dont expect SB in cold weather….Check pitch counts to see SP efficiency, not just wins and loses..Prepare to make adjustment if you find your team dropping out of a category…

Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): If a hitter has an extreme change in power as indicated by exit velocity or batted ball distance, I will take a flier. I’m more likely to do this in shallower leagues where there are lots of viable replacements on waivers. Normally, I’d start adding players based on these changes after a couple of weeks…maybe sooner if there have been earlier signs of a power breakout. I wait longer to act on changes in contact skills or plate discipline. As for pitchers, if they come out of the gate with back-to-back starts with a large spike in whiff rate or velocity, I’ll be willing to add them in shallower leagues.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): I mostly look for paths to extended playing time, especially in deeper leagues. In those, you really can’t wait for stats to stabilize because someone is going to pick up any player with even a hint of value. You need playing time first. If someone can nail that down, it’s a lot easier to evaluate them when they’re on your roster. As long as the cost of ownership is low, I try to use my last roster spots to go fishing for high-upside players.

Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): If I have a hole my only evaluation is to rank the available options. In a AL or NL league, the options are slim, so someone hitting a homer or stealing a base or seeing a little playing time can be enough to put him on top of the list. I don’t ignore a sensible evaluation, but even for guys with long histories of mediocrity, sometimes they just Gennett. If you have a need you don’t have time to figure out why someone is playing better, or if it is sustainable. You have to go for it first, then constantly try to figure out if there is a better option out there.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): In a league as deep as N.L. Tout, sometimes we’re just looking for anyone who might get, say, 6-8 at-bats in a given week. It’s rough out there. In a league of typical size and shape, you’ll never get anyone if you’re slow to react to a potential breakout. As a general rule, I simply like to see a plausible explanation for a player’s unexpected performance — a new pitch, a new approach, a jump in velocity, etc. Give me any reason to believe something is genuinely different or new. I’ll be much more aggressive taking fliers on players who can help address clear areas of need.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): I watch for playing time and manager use, like lineup spot or platoon. Seasoned veterans I don’t get too worried with slow starts, like Jose Ramirez, and look for trade opportunities for them. Rookies like Ryan McMahon, I look for more productive replacements. For closers who might have trouble holding a job, I look for their replacement.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I try not to overreact to anything this early.  We have a week in–it is a long season–and free agents weren’t selected for a reason.  Obviously, holes have to be filled. I look at roles that differ from projections so I can adjust projections and act accordingly.  With pitchers, all season long it is K/9-BB/9 and HR/9 and I will grab pitchers that other teams gave up on because of ER problems.  I am much later to jump on a guy who hit 3 home runs (yes, Villanueva I am looking at you) unless I have a hole and he’s the only viable option bc PT.  In mixed leagues which tend to be shallower, I am even slower to make moves the first couple of weeks.  The exception to all of this is closers, who are here one day, gone the next depending on context and role.  Otherwise, I’d preach excruciating patience with slow starters or a starter who had a bad start or a guy you believed in just a week ago.  I spend a lot of April time trying to get a better read on my own teams and where they will have strength to trade and what needs I’ll want to fill down the road.

Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): I do address holes in my roster but try not to react to under-performance in the first couple weeks unless my players aren’t getting any at bats. If they are in the lineup every day I just remind myself why I drafted them in the first place. I do replace some players on my bench who may have been sent down to the minors or have no straight path to playing time. In daily leagues I add an extra catcher if possible and a couple extra effectors to slot in active spots where I don’t have a starter active for the day. They really help keep ERA and WHIP down and earn a few wins along the way.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I agree with Steve Gardner—path to PT is the critical factor, whether injury or under-performance of the incumbent, and/or great performance by the target player. As well, in AL-only the premium is on quick action, even though the stats are not close to stable. As a result, as Podz says, there’s a lot more focus on (and dependence on) skills. I also follow Clay’s example by assessing batting orders to see if anyone is in a better (or worse) situation than expected, although in AL-only if guy is in a batting order at all, he’s probably rostered!

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): I try to follow the old rule that Cory Schwartz often preached: 26 weeks minus the round you drafted the player in. That said, I don’t give anyone 3 weeks of leniency and already replaced one of my reserve picks. If there is a playing time situation that changes drastically, I’ll aggressively pursue the opportunity, but otherwise try to slowly build up on deficiencies out of the draft. On that note, who has speed?

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): In reference to Todd’s second question, I am currently running a poll at RonShandler.com that asks what type of extreme surprise performance would be enough to make you change your expectations. Early results are interesting.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): I’ll take an especially long look at hitters who had walk rates or pitchers who had strikeout rates significantly above their career norms during Spring Training this year. Of course, if the same were true last Spring Training, and it was followed by a regression to career norms during the regular season (looking at you, Matt Davidson), I’ll temper my enthusiasm. Yoan Moncada, Andrew Triggs, Amir Garrett, and Tyler Glasnow are probably the names that jumped out at me during Spring Training this year, but of course most of them are probably owned already in all but the shallowest leagues.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I almost completely ignore actual results, instead analyzing underlying skill metrics that stabilize more quickly. These include velocity, pitch mix, and batted ball type changes for pitchers. For batters, that also includes batted ball type changes, along with plate discipline changes, such as swing and contact rates. If there’s word of a swing mechanics or plate approach change that explains the early season change in underlying skills, it’s easier to believe the results are sustainable. I’m always extremely patient with my players, ultimately figuring they will settle in right around their projections. I’m usually quicker to act on pitchers as their skill level changes much more quickly.

Tim McCullough (@Tim_Rotoexperts): I typically wait until hitters have at least 100 at bats before doing anything about performance, but I will keep an eye on playing time to make sure my players are actually accruing plenty of plate appearances. If I find that a player is in a platoon or some other split of the games, I will scour the waiver wire to see if a replacement makes sense. With pitchers, I try to watch as many games as I can to see how they’re throwing, but I will also check the stats, looking for things like a drastic change in pitch selection or the addition of a new pitch that is effective or making his repertoire more effective. Aside from that, I don’t get to wrapped up in the numbers aside from the skill metrics (K%, BB%, Hard Hit%, GB%).

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I want to monitor strikeouts and walks for both hitters and pitchers along with velocity, exit velocity, batting order placement and bullpen roles. If someone begins to emerge, I’m looking at various player pages and combing through articles trying to develop a more complete picture of the player and the player’s progression (more complete than my opponents’ anyway). I’m also keeping a close eye on the drops in my leagues and trying to add talent to my bench wherever possible — more so than looking to replace my starters — while being aggressive with my early-season FAAB bidding.

Scott White (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CBSScottWhite): What is a reserve spot but a place to reserve a player for yourself? And so the most logical choice to fill yours are the players you’re most likely to lose to someone else. After all, you have a finite number of reserve spots but probably an infinite number of players who you could talk yourself into adding. If a player isn’t generating much interest in the moment, regardless of your personal feelings about him, you can let him lie, instead prioritizing the flavor of the week, and many sites offer “most added” and “most viewed” data to help you identify just that. Now obviously, if you see little upside to the player making the most noise and think the world’s gone mad, you don’t HAVE to act on him, but it usually doesn’t require much imagination.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, Rotowire, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @toddzola): You know what? My favorite thing to do early is kick back and watch some ball. With matinee affairs, there’s wall-to-all games, weather permitting. I find the first few weeks the most enjoyable in terms of just watching.

With respect to managing, I struggle with the difference between being aggressive and reckless. That said, the shallower the format, the more it makes sense to be aggressive, or is that reckless? Look at Matt Davidson and Christian Villanueva. You don’t need a Tout to tell you a three-homer game is nothing more than a great game. Given the option of picking one up, who do you choose? We know what Davidson is, a trio of long balls likely doesn’t change that. Villanueva’s pedigree doesn’t portend this being more than a fluke, but do we KNOW? The chance Davidson contributes something is greater than Villanueva, but Villanueva’s ceiling is higher, simply because we don’t know what it is. Weird as it may seem, the shallower the league, the more viable Villanueva is since there’s a plusher supply of replacements if he flames out. If he hits (literally and figuratively, you’re upgrading one of the weaker spots on your roster.

Welcome to the weekly Tout Wars FAAB report, on its new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:20 PM ET to discuss the results.

You can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Mike Podhorzer’s Commentary

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Brian Walton’s Commentary

Based on Twitter dialogue among several Tout warriors on Sunday afternoon, some league members have not yet adapted to the new Sunday mid-day (or morning depending on your time zone) FAAB deadline. Routines will eventually change, but for this week, just eight of 12 owners placed bids.

Pitching was the primary target. That was not surprising, since as of Saturday night, no hitter who had more than nine at-bats this past week was available on the waiver wire, with most on top being catchers.

Milwaukee’s Matt Albers fetched the most money, $48 from BaseballHQ’s Phil Hertz. With Corey Knebel out for at least six weeks, the dreaded closer by committee was the initial announcement by manager Craig Counsell. Jacob Barnes (who I had acquired earlier for this very opportunity) was given the first shot on Saturday, but was victimized by atrocious defense from his Brew Crew teammates. Maybe Albers will be next, but unless he strikes out the side, his chances are questionable.

Reborn Tyson Ross is back with San Diego and was picked up for $25 by ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft. Tristan, by the way, maintains a valuable resource for all readers, tracking multiple pitching starts in the week ahead. Ross has a tough outing against Houston on Sunday, but Cockcroft will not take that hit. He will get a much more favorable home outing for Ross against the Giants on Friday. This is an example of why Tristan has three NL Tout titles on his resume.

Hertz was also the winning bidder for Mets right-hander Robert Gsellman, at $21. A starter last season, Gsellman is pitching in long relief in 2018, and so far, so good. In four innings over four games, the 24-year old has allowed just two hits, no walks and has fanned an impressive eight.

The lone position player to fetch multiple digits in this week’s bidding was Washington catcher Pedro Severino, going to Lenny Melnick for $11. With Matt Wieters out (not on Melnick’s roster), Severino took the lead role over the weekend and offers better defense than veteran Miguel Montero, who was away from the club for a personal matter. Once Montero returns, we will have to watch how the playing time is doled out by first-year skipper Dave Martinez.

Todd’s Take

I’ll second Brian’s recommendation to check out Tristan’s revamped Forecaster, free on ESPN. Instead of a weekly schedule, Tristan will maintain a rolling schedule for the next 10 days, for both probable pitchers and hitting matchups. There’s a permanent link for each on every ESPN fantasy baseball web page.

I’m still looking to upgrade my hitting, but as you can see by the predominance of reserve catchers in the report, bats were scant this week. I’m sporting the low stack in terms of FAAB, so I’m planning on being aggressive.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Bret Sayre’s Commentary

The biggest takeaway from this week’s FAAB bidding was that there were two unresolved closer situations still in the process of working itself out, and did so to the tune of around 400 units. Los Angeles is the more clear-cut situation, where Middleton looks to be the guy for right now. He already got one save in replacement of Blake Parker, and would have gotten another on Friday if Kole Calhoun hadn’t scored on a wild pitch to raise a three-run lead to a four-run one. Scott Swanay’s bid (215) certainly trumped mine (78) by quite a bit, but my hesitancy comes from the fact that there’s really no telling what Mike Scioscia will be doing here by the end of April. Middleton may be the guy almost guaranteed to get the next save situation, but what happens when he inevitably blows one? In Milwaukee, it’s completely up in the air and both Albers and Jeffress were added this week (making five Brewers’ relievers rostered in this league, amazingly). That number should go down to three by the next run of FAAB. I still think this ends up Jacob Barnes’ job, despite the ugly performance over the weekend, but with Corey Knebel likely to be back before Memorial Day, it’ll be a short-lived prize.

The other two big moves if the week were two west coast hitters, one significantly more well-known than the other. Ohtani, the hitter, had a strong showing last week and is now up to a .389 average and three homers. But more significantly, he started three games in a row. If he’s going to start consistently (except for the day he pitches and the day before), the hitter version of him could hold more value than most of us anticipated. I still think the Angels will slow this down a little when Ian Kinsler returns, as won’t be able to continue playing Luis Valbuena and Albert Pujols every day, but those of us who estimated he’d get around 250-300 at-bats, may surprisingly end up a little light on the estimate. My biggest move was grabbing Valbuena, who has also made the most of his playing time in Kinsler’s absence—hitting .308 with two homers since the second baseman hit the DL. He shouldn’t be near the lineup against lefties, but can still show 25-homer pop against righties. I’ll have to hope my third base position doesn’t go full Spinal Tap drummer on me, as I’ve already lost my starter (Justin Turner) and his replacement (Jedd Gyorko) to the infirmary. Villanueva was the other, but he hasn’t done much outside his magical three-homer game. The Padres should give him a good run at third base to see what they have, but that may require the dispossession of hitless Chase Headley. His upside in a mixed league still remains questionable.

Todd’s Take

Scoop time — one of my Twitter followers has it on good authority Ohtani is pronounced OH-tuh-nee, not oh-TAH-nee.

Either way, I’m not as confident as Bret he’ll be mixed-league worthy. At best, he’ll bat three times a week. If he pitches on Day 1, he’ll hit on Days 2,3 and 4. There will be times a southpaw is scheduled, likely leaving Ohtani on the pine.  I’m sorry, but three, sometimes four games a week won’t get it done.

MIXED DRAFT LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

It’s no surprise closers dominated bidding. Some are pointing to the early scuffles of Kenley Jansen and the unfortunate injury to Corey Knebel as proof positive never to pay for saves. OK, that’s fine. However, riddle me this? Who’s closing for the Angels? Or Brewers? You can take your chance on the perceived safe choices, or you can throw darts in FAAB. There’s no right answer.

I’m curious how the Rays will treat Yonny Chirinos. It appears he’s now one of the four regular starters, and not someone paraded out during the bullpen day. As a regular starter, Chirinos is mixed-league worthy, but temper expectations. The 24-year old righty isn’t dominant, but he won’t beat himself.

HEAD TO HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Still being convinced pitching is the road to victory in this head to head scoring, I’m all in with the Tyler Skaggs bid from Rotowire’s Clay Link. It’s not a play for this week as Skagg’s has just one start, lined up in Texas on Tuesday, not the easiest place to pitch. To me, this is a bet a healthy Skaggs has the break out many expect. So far, so good as he’s whiffed 10 with two walks in 11 stanzas to open the 2018 campaign.

Welcome to the weekly Tout Wars FAAB report, on its new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:20 PM ET to discuss the results.

I apologize, posting is a little late this week. In addition, I opted to give the Touts the week off so they could spend time with the friends and family, hunting Easter Eggs, the afikomen or just general April Fool’s balderdash. As such, I’ll provide the commentary for all five leagues with the Touts returning next week to give an insider view.

As smentioned, there are five leagues, you can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Real estate is all about location; fantasy potential is all about playing time, and right now, Tyler Austin lines up for some run at first base. That said, the path isn’t perfectly clear as Miguel Andujar was just called up and will likely see some time at first as well. Plus, the club seems intent on finding Tyler Wade at bats, pushing Neil Walker to the right corner  too. Austin drew the Tout’s attention with a pair of homers on Saturday. Mixed leaguers should pay attention, but it isn’t a foregone conclusion Austin plays enough to be viable in shallower formats.

I’m a little surprised there wasn’t more activity on the Red Sox Brian Johnson as he opens the week with a sweet start in The Aquarium, otherwise known as Marlins Park. Granted, the Fish hit a couple of Cubs hurlers hard this weekend, but that will be the exception, not the rule. There’s even a chance Johnson grabs a second start at home versus the Rays.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Phil Hertz of BaseballHQ was kind enough to send his thoughts:

I’m still trying to patch my pitching staff and made a decision that carrying Jimmie Sherfy in a re-draft League was probably not the best use of a reserve slot. With that in mind, I made an ambivalent bid on Joey Lucchesi, the Padre rookie who had a so-so start this weekend. Like Sherfy, I just wasn’t sure he’d have loads of value in a re-draft league, but at least he was up and starting. I wound up with the third highest bid on him – he went to Derek Carty and given Derek’s acumen, I’m second guessing myself on my ambivalence. My contingent bids after that were set-up relievers. I’m still hoping to get lucky with one of those guys graduating into a closer gig. I wound up with Fields, my third choice – one of the perils of a good start is I was next to last in the bidding pecking order.

A couple of bids raised my eyebrows. Even in a 1000 FAAB environment, 75 seemed high for Ryan Flaherty, who’s been a fantasy cipher most of his career and is likely to be a reserve by the middle of the month. Similarly 29 for Jordan Hicks seemed like an overpay, given the Holland signing and the depth of the Cardinal pen. Most of the Touts seemed to agree: the next highest bid on Flaherty was 4 and on Hicks 16.

Todd’s Take

I agree with Phil on Flaherty, classic case of recency bias. He’s not the latest member of the Launch Angle Club (first rule of the Launch Angle Club is not to talk about the Launch Angle Club).

I had a catcher opening with Steven Vogt hitting the DL. I really didn’t care who I received, so I listed a series of $0 bids. Grey Albright from Razzball was in a similar predicament, caring just a little more than me, so he strung together $1 bids. Good times.

With Steven Duggar sent to the farm, I needed to fill the swing spot. Not seeing any batters moving the needle, I opted to go with an arm. I considered Lucchesi, as he has a nice setup at home versus a Rockies club with a history of struggling on the road versus southpaws. However, I decided to roll the dice on the two-start Kyle Freeland, despite the second outing being a home affair. Who knows maybe I’ll catch a break and the latter outing will be rained out.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Admittedly, I have a soft spot for Jordan Zimmermann. He was always under-priced during his salad days with the Nationals, primarily because his strikeout rate was lower than other pitchers sporting similar ratios. As such, it’s curious I’m intrigued due to an elevated strikeout rate, in tandem with a low walk rate. This is tempered by a horrible 2017, featuring a weak 5.8 K/9, but in the spring, Zimmermann fanned 18 with three walks in 18 Grapefruit League frames then opened the 2018 regular season with eight punch outs and only one free pass against the Pirates. With his second start coming in Guaranteed Rate Park against the White Sox, it’s worth a moderate investment to see if he’s figured something out.

 MIXED DRAFT LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Last week, on our Rotowire podcast, Derek VanRiper and I discussed whether Strickland or Sam Dyson was the better handcuff for Mark Melancon. My brilliant reasoning was Dyson, since there’s been opportunities for Bruce Bochy to give the ball to Strickland, and he’s always gone elsewhere.

D’OH!

Strickland is the better option and now it appears Bochy may be on board. Further, I have no confidence Melancon will ever return to form. On this same podcast, I opined we could be looking at the reincarnation of Huston Street. It remains to be seen if I’m reading these tea leaves any better.

HEAD TO HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

Todd’s Take

Granted, recency bias played into the action on Matt Davidson this week, but going hard after the third baseman is justifiable, at least more so than Flaherty. Davidson has a clearer path to playing time.  It always seems like the White Sox want to find someone better, but always end up giving Davidson a decent number of at bats. His three homer games assures a decent chunk of playing time, at least until the Pale Hose tire of his inconsistency and look elsewhere.

Welcome to the first Tout Wars FAAB report of the 2018 season, on it’s new home right here on the Tout Wars site. Each week, we’ll review the free agent acquisitions from all five leagues, with commentary from a league member, as well as yours truly. We changed the timing of the weekly run to 1 PM ET every Sunday, with the report posted later that afternoon so you’ll have time to digest and apply to your own leagues. In addition, I’ll be joining Lawr Michaels and Justin Mason on the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY Network every Sunday at 3:30 PM ET to discuss the results.

Before revealing the results if this week’s run, I’d like to do what I did with the LABR report and recognize our late friend and Tout Wars veteran Steve Moyer, who once hosted the auctions in his basement. Steve shockingly left us on March 1 as we was about to meet up with the LABR gang at a ballgame. Steve’s team in the American League auction was taken over by his good friend Doug Dennis, a Mixed Tout Wars veteran. Doug wrote a heartfelt tribute to Steve, please check it out as well as considering a donation to help Harmony and Mary, Steve’s daughters.

This week’s report is a little late, we’ll be back on schedule this Sunday. There are five leagues, you can find the complete list of Tout Warriors here. Everyone starts with 1000 FAAB units, less any penalty incurred by finishing below a designated point in the standings. This is a means of keeping everyone motivated to keep playing all season long. The minimum bid is $0. FAAB units can be traded as well as rebated for players released off the DL.

The report will list all winning bids along with unsuccessful tries and contingencies. This provides the maximum level of information to help gauge interest on the players.

The American and National League only formats are 12-team leagues, as is the new points-based head to head league, The Mixed Auction and Draft each have 15 clubs. All the leagues have four reserves with an unlimited DL, expect the head to head league, which allows six reserves.

The headings above each league are links to publicly accessible sites where you can see standings, roster and a complete review of transactions. The initial auctions and drafts can be found here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

This week’s commentary is courtesy of Doug Dennis from BaseballHQ. Follow Doug on Twitter at @DougDennis41

I did not place any bids on the first period as I am waiting on the off-chance that Melky Cabrera signs in the AL and was not overwhelmed by the desire to fight for Ronald Torreyes or Brock Holt.

Vlad Sedler snagged Trevor Cahill for $37 as the top buy this first period, and cut David Paulino. Cahill had a terrific April/May last season starting for Arizona before shoulder woes sent him spiraling. He has shown with the Cubs before that that he can be a very effective LH reliever as well. I’d expect Cahill to take 2 starts in the minors and if all goes ok, then jump into Oakland’s rotation. Vlad has a middle-of-the-road starter in a nice pitcher’s park for a modest buy unless something isn’t right, and we will know that soon enough from his minor league starts going in. Other bids on Cahill were $10 and $0 and no one else bid at all.

Seth Trachtman went $35 for Daniel Norris and reserved Nick Tropeano. I might rather have a middle reliever than Norris at this point. Norris has never really progressed as advertised and the Tigers lineup and pen do not offer much support. BaseballHQ.com projects Norris for a 4.72 ERA at the moment. That sounds about right and I think I’d have found a nice, safe ERA/WHIP reliever until some starter struck my fancy. But maybe Seth will catch lightning in a bottle. It was a modest cost in any event. Other bids on Norris were $5 and $5 and no one else bid.

Other purchases were tiny numbers — I am struck by how weak the offense buys were. This reinforces the idea that it is very hard to find worthwhile buys in an AL-only league to replace DL or minors hitters in the early going. Hitters may emerge down the line, but this first transactions period was quite dire.

Todd’s Take

With only four days this period, this is the perfect opportunity to grab and stash some under-the-radar players and non-drafted prospects from the St. Patrick’s Day auction. Instead of collecting dust for a week, they only have to stay on the active roster for the abbreviated week.

As he often does, Rotowire’s Chris Liss took advantage, snagging Rule 5 fly-chaser Victor Reyes, Tim Lincecum, Bo Bichette and Hisashi Iwakuma. Interestingly, the narrative for each is different. Reyes has to stay in the roster all season, or be returned to the D-backs. The Tigers are rebuilding and may opt to give the solid contact speedster a look. Bichette is a dart throw, hoping he bashes his way onto the Jays, Lincecum is a speculative shot at saves while Iwakuma is expected to return later in the season, offering veteran innings.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

This week’s commentary is a two-parter, first Phil Hertz from Baseball HQ. Follow Phil on Twitter at @prhz50

I listed a string of pitchers to replace the now-demoted Robert Stephenson. I came out of the NL-only draft with only two solid starters: Stephen Strasburg and Zack Greinke, winding up with Ty Blach, who is now likely to be part of the San Francisco rotation with both MadBum and Shark headed to the DL. Blach was my’ first choice, but then there weren’t a plethora of starting pitching options available.

Now a note from defending league champion, Grey Albright from Razzball.

Won Brandon Finnegan for $86, though I guess I could’ve bid $14 on him and still won him. C’est la vie, as they say in France. Fantasy Baseball is very popular in France, by the way. They’re still bidding on Jeff Francoeur there. Anyway! I lost Jeff Samardzija to a pectoral strain, so I needed a starter. Brandon Finnegan sustained a biceps strain early on in Spring Training, but is progressing well in his rehab. Hopefully, him or Samardzija return to give me 120+ innings, anything over that at this point would be icing.

Todd’s Take

It was a little surprising to see Scott Wilderman, proprietor of our host site, OnRoto open the wallet on a couple of marginal players, especially since he nearly caught me a couple years ago (pardon the #humblebrag) by picking up serious reinforcements at the MLB trade deadline.

It’s early, but effort not to finish in 11th like last season is off to a lucky start before a pitch has been thrown. Not liking any of the end-game middle infielders, I dropped $7 on Scott Kingery, expecting him to sit on reserve for awhile. He obviously made the team, joining fellow Phillies Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and Aaron Altherr on my squad. Collecting so many Phillies was not by design, though acquiring Kingery as a Hernandez hedge was part of the consideration. Even if all my other Phillies lose time, I think I still benefit from Kingery’s early arrival.

In addition, my $4 Brad Boxberger is now the Dbacks closer, though it remains to be seen for how long.

On the other hand, my $6 David Dahl gambit didn’t come through, though I suspect I’ll get my money’s worth by season’s end. To replace the Rockies outfielder, I dropped $77 on Preston Tucker, expected to play a lot while the Braves pretend Ronald Acuna needs more time on the farm. If he doesn’t anything at all, Tucker could push Nick Markakis for playing time. With my poor 2017 finish came a big FAAB reduction penalty, so I’ll be aggressive early since I can’t be a player at the MLB trade deadline.

MIXED LEAGUE AUCTION 

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

This week’s commentary is courtesy of Scott Swanay. Follow Scott on Twitter at @fantasy_sherpa

Todd’s Take

Nothing personal gents, but I hope you’re all wrong. I’ve been on the Reds Tyler Mahle all drafting season. I won’t tell you how many rosters I have him on, but you’ll need your toes to keep track. He’s not a difference-maker by any means. However, he’s healthy, surrounded by a bunch of not-so-healthy teammates. The Great American Ballpark may be generous to power, but it plays just a little above neutral for runs, so if Mahle can keep the ball in the yard, he’ll be fine. I’d take him over all six starters won in FAAB. But, then, if I was in this league, he wouldn’t have been available.

MIXED LEAGUE DRAFT

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

This week’s commentary is from Perry Van Hook

While the Tout mixed draft league is less than three weeks from the draft, several teams have lost players to injury or suspension already, so a FAAB run before the first half week was some relief. Not that you are going to get a player better than Justin Turner or Madison Bumgarner, but at least you could get some lineup options.

The highest bid amongst the eight owners who made bids was $37 for Atlanta SP Brandon McCarthy by Scott White.

As the Justin Turner owner I saw several hitters who could fill my UT slot after some internal moves but thought the revitalized Victor Martinez was the best hitting so he topped my list at $11 and that was enough to roster him. I also wanted another pitcher as many starters would not have a start in the first three or four games. I am not sure my choice was the best, but Giants’ starter Ty Blach has had very good outing against the Dodgers who he will face in the opener on Thursday, and I don’t own any shares of Clayton Kershaw so I might as well double down on rooting against him.

Todd’s Take

Thank you Ray Murphy, at least someone sees what I see in Mahle.

Brandon McCarthy is a great Twitter follow, and a pretty good pitcher between injuries. He’s looked great so far this spring, offering solid inning and the proverbial veteran leadership to a fledgling Braves staff. Ride the guy while he’s healthy.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MIXED AUCTION

SUCCESSFUL BIDS

UNAWARDED BIDS

This week’s commentary is courtesy of Rotowire’s Clay Link. Follow Clay on Twitter at @claywlink

I had been holding out hope that Eduardo Rodriguez would be cleared to start the fourth game of the season, but he was not, and thus I was forced to dip into the free-agent pool for a replacement starter.

There were several capable arms available, and I went back and forth with my preferences and bid amounts, but ultimately settled on Ivan Nova being the most attractive option.

Innings are the most valuable commodity in this league, with each out being worth a point, and Nova nearly got to 190 last year while posting the fourth-lowest BB/9 among qualified starters. The first of his two starts over the first week comes against the Tigers, which seems like a decent matchup. The volume will be key right away, as I lost Dinelson Lamet hours after FAAB ran and I do not have a healthy replacement on my bench.

Sandy Alcantara was the obvious drop. I took a shot thinking he might break camp in the rotation, but that did not happen, and he’s not worth stashing in this 12-team league.

Count me among those skeptical that Matt Harvey’s spring means anything, but in this format that pushes up starting pitching so much, I can see why Howard Bender took the flier.

The other pickup that caught my eye was Nova’s teammate, Trevor Williams, at $3 to Peter Kreutzer. That second start for him over the first week-plus comes at home against the Reds, while Nova’s is home against the Twins. It’s a better matchup, and I could see Williams putting up a similar point total in the first week, at a lower cost.

Todd’s Take

There’s two kind of people. One is skeptical Matt Harvey can be a viable MLB starter and those delusional. I hope I’m wrong and my bud Howard Bender rubs egg on my face since a healthy Harvey is good for baseball, but the track record of those returning from thoracic outlet surgery just isn’t that good, though it does improve the further removed from the procedure so like Clay, I can see why the RotoBuzzGuy channeled Lloyd Christmas – hoping there’s a chance.