Tout Daily Week 13. Missed It By This Much! Getting Smarter or Getting Luckier?

patrickmayoThis is the place where we hail the week’s Tout Daily by FanDuel winner, so let’s get this out of the way. Lenny Melnick calls him a Daily Fantasy Monster, but you know him as Patrick Mayo. Last night he won Week 1 of Phase 4 of Tout Daily’s five phase contest. That puts him in the lead to win one of three tickets awarded to the top three finishers of this four-week phase, a ticket giving its holder entry into the Tout Daily finals, on August 28th, in which 15 entries compete for $2,000 in prizes (contest and prizes courtesy of FanDuel).

Well done, Patrick.

Oh, you want to know about Patrick’s team?

Like half of the active Tout Daily teams this week, Mayo’s squad was built around Clayton Kershaw. The experts loved Kershaw in Friday’s Picks Column because a lefty strikeout pitcher against the struggling Mets offense was seen as the equivalent of money in the bank.

But Kershaw’s high price ($12,300) forced his owners to make like Greece and accept austerity elsewhere, which led to Mayo’s coup de grace rostering of Grady Sizemore, Gerardo Parra, and the unintuitively inexpensive Robinson Cano, who scored a combined 20.75 points Friday night.
Screenshot 2015-07-04 08.27.18
A look at Mayo’s roster shows that despite Kershaw’s disappointing performance (one reason you pay Kershaw so much is because his disappointing game is often close to the peak performance of lesser pitchers) no single player had a negative value, and this team (click to enlarge) was the evening’s best.

Which takes us to the night’s real story: Rotoman Rising.

Rotoman, who has to admit he is writing this piece, sent dinner guests home about 10:30 pm and checked his computer to see what fresh hell was destroying his Tout Daily squad. Entering Week 13 of the weekly contests, Rotoman had yet to taste the fruits of a Top-10 finish. (One of only four teams not to score at least once going into week 13.)

Rotoman had a hard time reconciling his belief that Daily Fantasy Baseball was a game with an extremely high variance of outcomes with the fact that he himself was so consistently bad (without even making rookie mistakes, like starting players who don’t play because they’re not in the lineup or the game is rained out).

The point is, that while the better player will certainly prevail over time, the outcome on any day is highly subject to luck. How bad do you have to be to not be able to even get lucky? Rotoman asked himself, not just once.

As Rotoman’s computer flickered to life on the FanDuel Live page, memories of incredible cheese cake (thanks Kim!) fogging his mind, a remarkable thing happened. The letters said kroyte, the numbers said 45.5 (1 of 43). This outcome was so unexpected it took a moment to comprehend. This did not mean Rotoman was 45th out of 43 contestants having scored but a single point, which was similar to some other week’s results. No, this meant of all the 43 teams playing, Rotoman’s score was the best. Rotoman was winning.

And not by a little. It turns out that Rotoman was the only team playing Chris Archer, who scored 14.66 points on 6.2 IP, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Alas, no win, but not bad. This was better than the owners of Michael Wacha were getting. He struck out six in seven innings while allowing one earned run. 12 points. Ten of the 43 teams owned Wacha, and everyone Rotoman was competing with in the Top 10 was playing Wacha, who was out of the game and not going to get a win. Wow, but then it hit Rotoman, hard: Kershaw.

Two teams, sitting down in the teens, maybe 17 points behind, were playing Clayton Kershaw, whose game against the Mets was just getting underway. Rotoman has to admit he watched for a while, as Patrick Mayo’s and Ron Shandler’s and Todd Zola’s teams climbed into the Top 10 and the Mets were retired innocuously inning after inning. Rotoman hoped to see Kershaw knocked from the game, the Mets taking a lead, but that didn’t happen, and when it was clear that a Kershaw win would vault Mayo’s and Shandler’s teams above team kroyte, Rotoman went to bed.

A series of disturbing dreams haunted Rotoman. Why had he chosen Ben Zobrist over Robbie Cano, who was much cheaper? Because that would have left Rotoman with $1,000 unspent dollars. Who would he have replaced with that $1K? Maybe his big scorer for the night, Kole Calhoun. That would have been a disaster. Can you simply not spend $1,000? That’s tough.

Maybe he would have upgraded Adam Jones, whose 0-4 cost team kroyte another point. Maybe Rotoman should have downgraded Jones to Grady Sizemore, which would have given him enough money to buy Clayton Kershaw! This game is tricky.

None of which would have mattered if Kershaw won the game against the Mets, but he didn’t. One reason Rotoman didn’t go with Kershaw was because Noah Syndergaard is a pretty good starter in his own right, and in fact Syndergaard shut the Dodgers down as hard as Kershaw was silencing the Mets. Which left the door open for Rotoman, but he didn’t know this as he slept, he merely dreamed it. Over and over and over again.

Alas, in the gray rainy morning light, Patrick Mayo’s team (which you’ve heard about already) took first place and $60 (thanks to a 10th inning Welington Castillo double and run scored). It was the broad support of his offense that made the well-earned difference. Rotoman settled for second and $48. Ron Shandler finished third and another money virgin of Tout Daily, Todd Zola, finished fifth, right behind the Godfather of fantasy baseball, Charlie Wiegert.

Notably, only one of the top 10 finishers in Phase 4 Week 1 has a ticket to the finals already. That would be Phase 3 champ Michael Beller. It is fun to still be competing as we prepare for Phase 4 Week 2 for this Golden Ticket (created by Jeff Boggis, who has a real one):

pk-golden ticket from Boggis

You can see the leaderboard here.

Which part of one-day games of fantasy baseball do you cherish? The fresh hell of defeat or the surprising richness of everything falling into place? Play against Rotoman and many other Touts in Tuesday’s Tout Challenge contest. Bet $2 and merely finish in the top half of the standings to win $4. Look for the #toutchallenge on Twitter this coming Tuesday.

The Touts Pick for Tout Daily Week 13! A New Phase…

598x60-tout-wars

We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 13 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 1 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.

Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Bogis have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

JAKE CIELY’S Picks

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) His price could be $13,200, heck, it could be $15,300 and I’d still use Kershaw. There is no such thing as contrarian when it comes to Kershaw versus the Mets. The only question is whether Kershaw will through a perfect game or just a regular ol’ no hitter. The last time the Mets scored twice was in May… or it just feels that way. In reality, they have averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their last 14 with a .180 batting average and scored just one runs on 15 hits in a 3-game series against the Cubs. Just put Kershaw in your lineup and figure out the rest later.

Kole Calhoun ($2,300–Los Angeles Angels at Texas)  Finally, The Rock has come… wait, sorry, I got caught up in it. Finally, Chi Chi Gonzalez saw the clock hit midnight after we kept waiting for him to regress. Over his last two starts, Gonzalez is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. We have to find value with Kershaw being so expensive, and Calhoun is a terrific play. He only costs $2,300, and Vegas gives this game a 9 O/U with the Angels money line being -125.

DOUG ANDERSON OPINES

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) First of all, it’s Clayton Kershaw. Then there’s the fact that only three teams have scored fewer runs than the Mets. Kershaw is opposed by Noah Syndergaard, who’s been inconsistent as you might expect from a young pitcher. If you can build a respectable lineup with Kershaw, you roll with it.

Steve Pearce ($2,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) Yes, this is about Danks, but it’s also about Pearce and lefties. Over the last five years, Pearce has scored 6.561 FanDuel points for every 10 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That puts him in Albert Pujols and Carlos Gomez territory.

THE GODFATHER OF FANTASY SPORTS, CHARLIE WIEGERT

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) I’m going to break rule number 1 tonight; I’m taking Cardinal pitcher Wacha because I’m going to the game and want someone to root for!  Wacha has the stuff that any game can be double digit strike outs, and the Redbirds need to get back on a winning track.  Hopefully they bust out tonight.  

David Ortiz ($2,900–Houston at Boston) The Red Sox and Astros looks like a slugfest in Fenway so I’m loading up. David Ortiz  has been hot, so he’s my pick to click tonight.

GENE McCAFFREY SAYS

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers)  It’s possible to go against Kershaw and win, but with good cheap hitter options why get cute?

Nolan Reimold ($2,200–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox)  Take Nolan Reimold, among others, and reap.

JEFF BOGGIS CONCLUDES

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) The allure of rostering Clayton Kershaw is enticing, but the $12,300 salary can’t be justified tonight. I was a top tier starting pitcher, but at a fraction of Kershaw’s salary. That is why I am rostering Michael Wacha tonight at home against the San Diego Padres. San Diego is one of the weaker offenses against right handed pitchers this season and the matchup for Wacha is at home tonight. By rostering Wacha, I save $3,700, leaving me an average of $3,300 to spend per hitter versus $2,837.50 to spend per hitter if I rostered Kershaw.

Manny Machado ($4,200—Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) By rostering Wacha versus Kershaw tonight, I have more flexibility to spend my remaining dollars on an elite hitter. I like both Macado and Nolan Arenado tonight, but Arenado’s salary is $700 higher at $4,900. Since rostering Arenado last week with his 2 home run game last Friday night, Arenado has only averaged 0.18 fantasy points in his last 4 games on FanDuel. Over the past 6 games, Machado has averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game on FanDuel.

RAY MURPHY’S RULE

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) Week 1 of a new phase is no time to get cute or over-think the pitching choice. Kershaw, at home, against a struggling Mets lineup that skews left-handed, is as good as 15 or more points in the bank.

Adam Lind ($4,000–Milwaukee at Cincinnati) Opposing RHP Michael Lorenzen has had big trouble with LHP (970 OPS against), making this an optimal spot for Lind in GABP. Rostering Kershaw means going low-budget on some hitters, but generally not at first base.

BRIAN WALTON BREAKS HIS SLUMP PICKING AGAINST KERSHAW vs. The Mets.

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) Like Kershaw, he also draws a below-average offense in San Diego at home Friday night. After his hot start cooled a bit, the 24-year-old is no longer among top NL Cy Young Award candidates, but has the advantage of coming off an extra day’s rest between starts. 

Yasmany Tomas ($3300–Colorado at Arizona) For those looking for a value play. The Cuban is heating up over his last four games with six hits in 17 at-bats (.353), including a home run and four RBI. Colorado starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick lugs his 6.07 ERA to the mound against the Snakes Friday. Need I say more?

SCOTT PIANOWSKI DESCRIBES

Julio Teheran. ($8,000–Philadelphia at Atlanta) Completely different pitcher at home, and the draw is lovely. 

Alejandro De Aza ($3,100–Houston at Boston) The Red Sox finally have offense in right field. Alejandro De Aza can hit righties, and for all the Boston problems, the offense has woken up nicely. 

LAWR MICHEALS PREDICTS

Ubaldo Jimenez ($8,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) Since I qualify for the tourney, I have a little latitude. That said I am still looking at emulating Adam and his double ticket, and Ubaldo has been hot (3-0, 2.75, 23 whiffs over 19.3 innings his last three starts) and I am happy to gamble with him against an erratic hitting White Sox team.

Joe Mauer ($2,600–Minnesota at Kansas City) How did Mauer fall so far off the map? He is just hitting .267-3-30, and his OBP is .337, a far cry for a former batting champ. Still, a lefty hitter against Jeremy Guthrie (5.68 ERA, just 43 whiffs over 81 frames) is too tasty to leave on the table.f

TODD ZOLA’S VERDICT

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) Lock, load it. move on.

Nolan Reimold ($2,200–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox)– Hitting second versus John Danks in the Cell? Yes, please.

PAUL SPORER SAYS, Tough day, today.

Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) The results have been there all year, but early on (thru first 6) the Ks were lagging. They’ve been in place over his last 9 starts with 55 Ks in 55.7 IP. Meanwhile, SD is doing a great job imitating their 2014 offense which isn’t good for anyone involved… well, except for opposing pitchers. 

David Peralta ($3900–Colorado at Arizona) He’s no longer the dirt-cheap option he was to start the year, but he continues to rake righties, especially at home, and so even as a higher-level option, he is still worth rostering. 

SCOTT SWANAY SAYS, Happy Fourth of July!

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) Sure, he’s the most expensive pitcher by far, but the Mets don’t score many runs, strike out fairly often, and have a low team OPS.  In other words, Kershaw’s got a realistic shot at putting up 20 FanDuel points tonight.  It was tempting to go with Chris Archer and save $1,700, but the Yankees’ offense is considerably more formidable than the Mets’, and Dodger Stadium is a more favorable pitching environment than Yankee Stadium.

Kole Calhoun ($2,300–Los Angeles Angels at Texas) He may be in the midst of a “disappointing” season, but $2,300 seems like a bargain considering that he gets to face the mercurial Justin Masterson in Fenway Park.

AL MELCHIOR’S HOLIDAY HOT DOGS!

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) He’s Clayton Kershaw; they’re the Mets. That should be reason enough, but then there’s this. His last seven starts have produced a 1.85 ERA, 67 Ks and nine walks.
Lorenzo Cain ($3300–Minnesota at Kansas City)  Cain is getting on base against lefties at a .420 clip. If he reaches against Tommy Milone and Kurt Suzuki (40 steals allowed in 51 attempts) is catching, I like Cain’s chances to swipe a bag or two.

Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)

Clayton Kershaw ($12,300–New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers) 7  (13)
Julio Teheran. ($8,000–Philadelphia at Atlanta) 2 (15)
Michael Wacha ($8,600–San Diego at St. Louis) 4 (12)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($8,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) (10)
Chris Archer ($10,600–Tampa Bay at New York Yankees) (14.66)
Jesse Chavez ($8,700–Seattle at Oakland) (6.33)
THE BEST BUY: Julio Teheran–15 points for $8,000
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points
Kole Calhoun ($2,300–Los Angeles Angels at Texas) 2 (8.25)
Neil Walker ($3,200–Cleveland at Pittsburgh) (1.25)
Steve Pearce ($2,400–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) (.5)
David Ortiz ($2,900–Houston at Boston) 2 (7.75)
Nolan Reimold ($2,200–Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) 2 (.5)
Mookie Betts ($3,700–Houston at Boston) (2)
Manny Machado ($4,200—Baltimore at Chicago White Sox) (.25)
Adam Lind ($4,000–Milwaukee at Cincinnati) (2)
Yasmany Tomas ($3300–Colorado at Arizona) (-1.25)
Alejandro De Aza ($3,100–Houston at Boston) (2)
Joe Mauer ($2,600–Minnesota at Kansas City) (.25)
Stephen Vogt ($3,400–Seattle at Oakland) (.25)
David Peralta ($3900–Colorado at Arizona) (2)
Lorenzo Cain ($3300–Minnesota at Kansas City) (9.75)
BEST BUY: Kole Calhoun–8.25 points for $2,300.
Voters without comments include Adam Ronis, Phil Hertz, Rotoman, David Gonos,

Tout Wars DFS Round Table: Doing Anything Different?

This week we’re going to follow-up on last week’s question. By means of reminder, Tout Daily is 20 weeks long, divided into five periods of four weeks. Each week is a mini-tournament with a modest payout but the big carrot is a ticket into the one-day Tout Daily Championship with a $1000 grand prize. The top-three finishers in each period will get an entry into the finals. Each Tout is allowed to earn two tickets. With that in mind, here’s this week’s question:

IT’S THE FIRST WEEK OF THE FOURTH PHASE OF TOUT DAILY. WE’VE ALL GONE THROUGH ONE FULL FOUR-WEEK PERIOD, MOST OF US ALL THREE. WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DO YOU PLAN ON DOING DIFFERENTLY WITH YOUR LINEUP THIS WEEK AS COMPARED TO OTHER PERIOD-OPENING WEEKS?

Craig Mish, www.craigmish.com, @CraigMish: Friday night pitching has not been my strong suit so I am determined to pick the right starter Friday Night. I also see a ton of value in a few of the 2500 and under players lately it could be a night to go big on an ace.

Doug Anderson, www.fantasysportsnetwork.com, @rotodaddy: While still using platoon splits to hopefully gain value, I think I’ll start playing a few more “mini” stacks to try and create a little more upside in my hitters.

Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323: Nothing different, I’m going to try to get the most points. I’m going to look for the best players tonight and the best pricestonight and see where that takes me. Don’t you all just KNOW that one night you will pick the perfect team? I’ve been close but haven’t had that one more late home run. I thought I was gonna get it last night from Mike Zunino. I saw the delusion and knew it for delusion and expected it anyway. I need help.

Jeff Erickson, www.rotowire.com, @Jeff_Erickson: Because I lucked into one of the seats for the final in the first month, I have the freedom to try out new strategies if I see an angle that might help separate me from the pack. Maybe I’ll focus on finding lesser-owned yet still attractive options. Or maybe I’ll just simplify it and not get too clever. I’ve whiffed the last couple of months, so whatever I’ve been doing lately, it’s time to do something different.

Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa: I’ll adjust my strategy somewhat based on the results of the first three 4-week phases.  The cut-offs for the top three spots have been 166, 152, and 160 points in the three respective phases, so I figure it will take an average of roughly 40 points over the four weeks to get a top-three spot in the next phase.  I’ll look for a starting pitcher that I think can get me at least 13 points without getting a win (e.g. – 7 IP, 8 K, 2 ER), then look for a collection of 8 hitters that I think can average 3.5 points (the key seems to be having three hitters score in the 5-10 point range).  I’ll continue to look for favorable match-ups for my hitters, but based on a small sample I’ve looked at, the idea of stacking hitters against a specific pitcher appears to be overrated.

Tim McCullough, www.rotoexperts.com, @Tim_RotoExperts: My experience with this from week to week has been that I either hit the pitching right but get the hitting wrong, or I get the hitting right but miss on the pitching. In general, I do better with the pitching overall, so my goal this week is to spend a bit more time researching my hitting to see if I can’t get this thing firing on all cylinders.

Phil Hertz, www.baseballhq.com, @prhz50: Having had a number of weeks screwed up by a bad pitching performance, I’m going to spend a little extra time — and probably budget — on who I use as my pitcher.

Michael Beller, www.SI.com, @MBeller: I locked up a spot in the final by winning Phase 3, so I feel like I’m playing with house money, even more so, at this point. Still, I’m not going to change up my strategy. I’ve now cashed in six of the 12 Friday Tout Daily contests, including one win and two more top-five finishes. What I’ve been doing works, so I don’t plan to change it. For me, it all starts with my pitcher. That doesn’t mean I’m automatically going with one of the two or three most expensive pitchers on the board, but I’m not reaching into the depths, either. After settling on my hurler, only then do I turn to offense. It’s just much easier to correctly predict daily pitcher than hitter performance.

Patrick Davitt, www.baseballhq.com, @patrickdavitt: Based on my success so far, I’m going to buy a blind monkey and have him pitch darts at a player list.

Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis: I was fortunate enough last week to claim a ticket to the FanDuel final on August 28th by finishing 3rd in phase 3 with a .25 of a point margin over Derek Van Riper. I am personally pulling for Derek to claim a ticket in one of the remaining phases of our contest as the .25 of a point victory for me over Derek came down to a single out by a single hitter over the course of four weeks. I did a lot of scoreboard watching late last Friday night and even woke up at 4 AM to calculate everyone’s final scores on our Google Docs site to ensure that I had claimed 3rd place. Now that I have a ticket into the finals, my plan for this phase is to relax, not to stress out over the results, and most importantly, continue to use the game plan that was very successful for me last phase. My strategy of rostering a top 5 pitcher and building a roster of hitters with the remaining salary has worked best for me on FanDuel. Another lessons learned for me is that a higher salaried player does not always result in more fantasy points. Last week, my final roster spot that I struggled with the most was between Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion in the first base slot. Rizzo was listed at $4,400 and Encarnacion was listed at $3,900. Over the past two weeks, Rizzo has outperformed Encarnacion and their salaries reflected their recent production. But I really liked the pitching matchup for Encarnacion and had a feeling that he would have a great night, but I ended up going with Rizzo. I was watching the Toronto game live and saw Encarnacion hit a grand slam. My remote almost went through the television screen as I was kicking myself for not going with my instincts on this roster decision. Encarnacion ended up with a single, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, 2 runs scored, and 2 outs, which equaled 15.5 fantasy points on FanDuel. Rizzo, who costed me an additional $500 over Encarnacion went 0-4 and 1 hit by pitch for a total of 0 points. Ironically, had Rizzo gone 0-5, I would have not finished in 3rd place in phase 3.  One last strategy that I am contemplating is that when I roster a lowered priced player that is somewhere around the minimum $2,200 salary that I roster players from the earlier games as opposed to the late games. The strategy here is that once our lineups lock at 7:05 PM ET, I am at the mercy of the team manager’s lineup for that night. Last week, I rostered Angel Pagan who is an outfielder for the San Francisco Giants. The game at home in San Francisco against Colorado and Pagan was owned in 4.7% of FanDuel league contests. Pagan ended up not playing at all that night, resulting in 0 fantasy points. Each player represents 1 out of 9 roster slots, or 11.1% of your team, and you can’t afford to have players in your starting lineup that are not contributing due to getting the night off or out of the lineup for that evening. By rostering a lower priced player that is not playing on the West Coast that night, I will know for certain if that player is going to be in the starting lineup in advance of the start of the contest. Good luck to everyone this contest phase, especially to Derek Van Riper.

Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports: After weeks of frustration, I managed a 4th place finish last Friday.  The main reason, Mad Max.  Finding one of the top pitchers seems imperative to doing well.  He doesn’t have to be the most expensive pitcher, but the ones with the high salaries are usually the most dependable.  So I’ll be looking for the top pitcher of the day, the guy that will pitch at least 7 innings and have double digit strike outs, and hopefully get a win.  The tough part is finding the value plays that can get me at least 32 points on offense, that’s 4 per player.

Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte: I’ve wobbled between trying to get the most excellent pitcher with a good matchup, no matter the price, and a cheaper excellent pitcher with a good matchup and better hitters. Until this past Tuesday my point totals have been equally weak, except when my pitcher scored big. So, I’m going to start with the biggest strikeout starter I can find, and then load up hitters facing weak pitchers at good prices. This isn’t exactly different, but I hope to do it better.

Lenny Melnick, www.rotoexperts.com, @LennyMelnick: Going to rely more on what I recommend on my Daily Podcast That is, less relying on numbers alone  and more relying more  on my Baseball Judgement based on recent trends AND Numbers history.

Jake Ciely, www.rotoexperts.com, @allinkid: Not going to change a thing. I’m fifth overall for the year, but somehow, I have missed on a ticket all three periods… two by a hair. I’m going to keep working my current plan. It’s led to consistently good lineups, and the two times I went contrarian to mix things up actually resulted in my lowest scores of the year. And by using my same strategy, that means avoiding extremely high priced pitchers, as it hampers your ability to build stability with your hitters.

Ray Murphy, www.baseballhq.com, @RayHQ: Not planning anything unusual. We’ve established that you need about 160 points over four weeks to earn a finals ticket. I might stack a little less here in week 1, play it more like a cash game with the intent of hitting that 40-50 point mark and taking less risk in chasing the 70+ point night. But that statement assumes a level of precision in lineup construction that doesn’t really exist. Basically, I’ll just be putting forth a team I like, but it probably won’t be a go-for-it-all stack-heavy/cheap pitcher sort of lineup.

Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels: Well, I am obviously going to try and make the best pitching play I can this first cycle, and then hope i hit it on a couple of hitters to at least stay in the middle of the pack at worst. with a little luck and a Jace Peterson-type big day that could be top tier and then it is more playing the safer bets. The further back, the bigger the crapshoot, I suppose.

Nando DiFino, www.rotoexperts.com, @nandodifino: I’m just going to keep on keepin’ on. I’m learning every day, putting things together, experimenting with different stats and theories. I’m close to breaking through, Todd! It’s going to happen! Swing for the seats and go for first!

Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola: I’m going to do what I do best and that’s overthink things. Actually, my plan is similar to Ray’s. My goal is a ticket to the finals and a chance at the $1000 grand prize. I think the pathway there is a conservative cash game approach as opposed to trying to win the week, tournament style. So I’ll lock in a strikeout pitcher in a great spot then spread the hitters among as many teams as possible.

You can’t stop Pianow, you can only hope to contain him

ToutChallenge

Yahoo’s Scott Pianowswki carried the banner for Tout Wars in Tuesday night’s 50/50 Challenge, not only checking in with the night’s top score but also being the only Tout Warrior in the top ten. Yes, it was another great night for the fans as only 13 Touts finished in the money with Mastersball colleagues Todd Zola and Brian Walton chopping the last money spot.

Scott deployed a classic cash game lineup, locking in one of the game’s best starting pitchers in southpaw Chris Sale then spreading his hitters among several teams, hitting pay dirt with Mitch Moreland, George Springer and Mr. Inside-the-Park, Dee Gordon.

Be sure to check in with your favorite Tout as we kick off the fourth phase of Tout Daily on Friday.

Here’s Scott’s contest-leading roster:

pianow

 

The June 29, 2015 FAAB Report!

The fellas at Mastersball.com have posted their FAAB roundup for the week, which was mostly a quiet one. There were a few big bids, but all were reduced to little bids by Sir Vickery.

Mike Gianella takes on Tout AL and NL transactions (and includes TW Mixed Draft and Auction in a chart) for the week, at baseballprospectus.com.

Who Is Winning Tout Wars Mixed Draft on June 28, 2015?

Adam Ronis has a 12.5 point lead over Rudy Gamble, which is a big lead except for one thing: Ronis just lost Giancarlo Stanton for 4-6 weeks.

That’s a big blow, but Ronis’s team might be able to handle it. Thanks to Stanton and Bryce Harper, as well as Kyle Seager, Brian Dozier and Pedro Alvarez, all with double digit home runs, Ronis has 13 more homers than Paul Greco’s team, and 24 more than Paul Sporer’s, which is third in the category.

If there is a place Ronis is really vulnerable it just might be in starting pitching. He has two surprise closers, in Jeurys Familia and AJ Cole, but his starting staff is Wacha and Cole, then pray for Tsuyoshi Wada, Bartolo Colon, and Roenis Elias.

But so far that’s been enough to get it done. To see the rosters and transactions in Tout Mixed Draft visit the league’s onRoto.com home page.

The current standings;

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Tim McCullough Takes Tout Daily in Week 12! Read on for the notably big story.

Michael Beller, Adam Ronis and Jeff Boggis win tickets to the #toutdaily on @FanDuel final on August 28th, when 15 ticket holders will compete for $2,000 in prizes and the Tout Daily 2015 crown!

Notably, Adam Ronis won his second ticket to the finals. (Each Tout Daily player may win a maximum of two tickets in the contests five phases.) Other ticket holders thus far are: Scott Pianowski, Lenny Melnick, Tom Kessenich, Lawr Michaels, and Jeff Erickson,

Notably, Derek VanRiper was edged out of a ticket by Jeff Boggis by .25 of a point. That’s a single out by a single hitter over the course of four weeks. VanRiper failed to win a ticket despite finishing in the Top 10 during Phase 3 three times. Only Michael Beller, the Phase 3 winner, also finished in the Top 10 three times during Phase 3.

Notably, nobody else was close to the tickets.

tim-mcculloughWhich brings us to Tim McCullough, who won Phase 3 Week 4, with 50.25 points. This was his second Top 10 finish in #toutdaily’s 12 weeks.

Much like Week 11 champ, Phil Hertz, McCullough built his team with unpopular choices. Only Rajai Davis, Adrian Beltre and Xander Bogaerts were owned by more than two other Tout Daily teams.

Big earners for McCullough were spread across the board, with his exclusive Jake Arrieta earning 13 points despite failing to get the win in St. Louis, and Russell Martin, Prince Fielder, Dee Gordon, Scott Van Slyke and Rajai Davis each earning more than five points.

Phase 3 Week 4 runners up include Ray Murphy (Taijuan Walker, Edwin Encarnacion and Scott Van Slyke) and Tim Heaney (Tyson Ross, Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Dozier and Ryan Raburn).

Notably, Charlie Wiegert’s fourth-place team was the highest finisher to roster the night’s biggest-scoring (and highest-priced) starter, Max Scherzer.

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Congratulations to Tim McCullough, Adam Ronis, Michael Beller and Jeff Boggis, and please join us next week for Phase 4 Week 1, when the slate is wiped clean!

The Touts Picks for Week 12 of Tout Daily with FanDuel!

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We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 12 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Tonight’s contest is Week 4 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Here are the leaders going into this final week (click to enlarge):

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Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.

Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.

Paul Sporer Picks

 

Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) The contact-heavy approach has served ATL well this year against righties where they sit around or just below average. Yes, that is being “served well” for ATL standards because they were expected to be a total doormat coming into the season and they have been vs. lefties. They sit 28th in wRC+ at 76 WITH Freddie Freeman… imagine them without and it’s not like he killed lefties in the first place (.769 OPS). Liriano has been mostly excellent this year with a 3.26 ERA and skills to back it (and then some). He’s had a few clunkers as he always does, but the upside is elite once he gets rolling.
Luis Valbuena ($3900–New York Yankees at Houston) Valbuena is a DFSer’s dream with his low costs and HR-dependent production. With 19 HRs the price has jumped up, but he’s still worth targeting in tourney situations because of that power output. He’s incredibly boom or bust with two 14-pt nights within his last eight games and then just 7.25 pts in the other six combined. He’s at home and he’s facing righty, his two prime splits. And he’s facing a righty who gets mauled by lefties in Nathan Eovaldi (.964 OPS v. LHB).

Brian Walton Likes

Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh)  Wise money will be on Max Scherzer ($12,500) against the inept Phillies offense, but then again, if the Nats’ ace was ever going to have an unexplainable let-down, wouldn’t this be the time? Instead, I will save almost three grand and select the ace of my National League Tout Wars squad, Pittsburgh’s Francisco Liriano, who takes on the Freddie Freeman-less Braves at home.

Jason Heyward ($3700–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) On the offensive side, I will highlight Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward. Early returns had pegged the Braves as the clear winner in the Shelby Miller trade, but Heyward is finally heating up. The 25-year-old has a .913 OPS in June and is coming off a Miami series during which he went deep twice and plated four.

Jeff Boggis Has A Lot on the Line Tonight

Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) Going into tonight’s contest, I am in 3rd place and a close to a “golden ticket” into the Tout Daily Championship, so I can’t afford to get cute and take chances with my roster tonight. Starting pitching is my top priority and I plan on building my team around Max Scherzer. He is the highest salaried pitcher tonight, but that is not stopping me from rostering him in tonight’s contest. Scherzer has averaged 16.95 fantasy points per game this season and over the past 2 weeks, he has averaged 26 fantasy points. He is coming off his no-hitter against Pittsburgh on Saturday and he is facing a team that he has pitched well against this season. In 2 starts against the Philadelphia Phillies this season, he is 2-0 and is averaging 8 innings pitched, 1 earned run, and 7.5 strikeouts. If he repeats this average, that’s 18.5 fantasy points on Friday night. Scherzer faces Aaron Harang who is giving up a lot of home runs lately. Over the last 4 starts, Harang has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 23.2 inning pitched. There is a 50% chance of rain in Philadelphia on Friday, but it decreases to only 20% on Friday night.

Nolan Arenado ($4,500–Colorado at San Francisco) The third baseman for Colorado is the hottest hitter in baseball this week and ranks #1 overall in the past 7 days with 9 runs scored, 4 home runs, 9 RBIs, and a .391 batting average. He faces Tim Hudson tonight to where he is slugging .500 against him in his last 19 plate appearances. Arendado has 20 home runs and 60 RBIs on the season.

Todd Zola Divines

Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) Facing a weak-hitting Braves team that whiffs at a 22 percent clip versus southpaws, at home in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league. It’s not even a bang-for-the-buck thing. I expect more points from Liriano than anyone on the docket, including Scherzer and Kluber.
Derek Norris ($2,800–Arizona at San Diego) You know the expression friends with benefits? I call this a punt play with benefits. Norris faces a weak lefty at a minimum price at a position I’ll either spend a ton for the right situation or go cheap. This is going cheap in a great situation.

Al Melchior Ruminates

Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadephia) Everyone knows by now that Scherzer has been nearly perfect in back-to-back starts, and he has been flat-out dominant all season long with great control. Add in a matchup against the worst offense in the majors against righties and that makes Scherzer worth every penny.

Luis Valbuena ($3900–New York Yankees at Houston)
 Valbuena doesn’t hit for average against righties or lefties, but he does crush righties for a .288 Iso. Eovaldi has allowed a .380 batting average to lefties. Looks like the perfect night to start Valbuena.

From the Godfather of Fantasy Sports, Charlie Wiegert

Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadephia) The closest thing to a sure thing, so you have to pay the price. But Max has been on a roll, has an inferior Phillies team, and wants to extend the Washington pitchers scoreless innings streak.  He’s 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA vs Phillies this year, pay the price and get the best.
Evan Longoria ($2900–Boston at Tampa Bay) I’ll have to go cheap with Scherzer, so looking for bargains.  I’ll take a couple $2200 outfielders, and some right handed hitting Blue Jay hitters at home vs Texas lefty starter Nick Martinez and hope Evan Longoria takes Rick Porcello deep.

Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge

Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) Anyone cheaper than Mr. No-Hitter is a bargain tonight and Inside Edge says Lirano is the best choice on the board. When the Phillies are pounding Scherzer later, you’ll be doing the happy dance (OK, I’m getting carried away).
Justin Upton ($3,300–Arizona at San Diego) Clicks on all cylinders according to the new, even more improved this week Inside Edge engine. Say Hey, Robbie Ray!

Ray Murphy’s Thoughts

Taijuan Walker ($7,800–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) Much attention will be focused on Scherzer, but I’ll take a shot with Taijuan Walker tonight for $7800. He’s been on a roll for the last month, and in that time has established that he can thrive on the road. He is at Anaheim tonight, facing a surprisingly-punchless Angels lineup. I’ll roll with him and bet that I can use the $4700 savings between him and Scherzer to build an offense that makes up any points gap between the two hurlers.
Scott Van Slyke ($3,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami) is my favorite platoon specialist tonight: facing rookie southpaw Justin Nicolino, Van Slyke will slot into the middle of the Dodgers lineup. Look for a long ball from him.

Michael Beller Zags

Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) You can go in a lot of different directions with your pitcher tonight, but I’m riding with Francisco Liriano. A matchup with the Freddie Freeman-less Braves? Yes, please.Josh Donaldson ($4,100–Texas at Toronto) Rostering Liriano instead of one of the pitchers priced higher than him allows me to stack Blue Jays. Of all those Jays, I think Josh Donaldson is the best bet. He should be able to take advantage of a matchup with Nick Martinez.

Eno Sarris Digs

Jesse Hahn ($7,800–Kansas City at Oakland) Way down there on the list, the 12th-most expensive pitcher, that’s the one I want. Hahn hasn’t been a great source of strikeouts, but he continues to tell me they are coming, and there are reasons to believe — his curve is among the league-leaders in spin rate, and was a top-five pitch by whiffs last year among curveballs thrown by starters. In the meantime, though, he’s just a really high floor pitcher at home. After being on teams with  pitcher’s parks over the last two years, he’s shown a 3.03 ERA at home. Like the price most of all, though.
Victor Martinez ($3,300–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) It’s so nice to be able to play Victor Martinez at catcher. It’s even nicer when he’s facing a lefty that uses a curveball as his out pitch. Martinez has traditionally batted better from the right side, and has mashed yakkers over his career. Given that Jose Quintana doesn’t get many whiffs, and Martinez doesn’t whiff much, this seems like a great matchup for the Tiger. I was tempted to put a cheap Ryan Rua on here — the Texas outfielder is facing a lefty today, in Toronto — but Rua will bat lower in the lineup and is more of a lineup hole-plugger with some upside.

Phil Hertz Hits

Jesse Hahn ($7,800–Kansas City at Oakland) I’m a little nervous about Jesse Hahn’s potential lack of strikeouts, but he’s been pitching well, the A’s are playing well, and the price is right.

Logan Morrison ($2,400–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) has an OPS north of .800 against righthanded pitchers and has hit Matt Shoemaker well before.

Scott Engel’s Kiss

Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) If you are not going to spend up for Max Scherzer tonight, then Francisco Liriano looks like a good option at $9,900. The Braves offense is rather punchless without Freddie Freeman and Liriano should be in line for the win.
Brian Dozier ($3,900–Minnesota at Milwaukee) Kyle Lohse is having a terrible season and I will always attack him when I can. Righties are hittng .323 with 10 HRs against him so I will lock in Brian Dozier at 3,900 and maybe add a Twins teammate or two.

Gene McCaffrey’s Pearls

lex Colome ($6,400–Boston at Tampa Bay) Roll those dice with Alex Colome against the anemic Red Sox in Tampa. You may lose but you should have plenty of hitting points.
Robinson Cano ($2,600–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) is finally heating up, nice spot vs lost righty Shoemaker tonight.

Lenny Melnick’s Voice

Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) If we are true Baseball fans ,we must root for Max Scherzer to tie Johnny Vander Meer’s record of 2 NO hitters in a row  Im rooting and playing him for all the wrong DFS reasons
Evan Gattis ($3,300–New York Yankees at Houston) Eovaldi in Houston? Give me Gattis and a side order of Valbuena please! Ill take it TO GO! (deep)

Jake Ciely Skies One

Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) Man, it’s tough to stomach a pitcher priced at $12,500, but is there a chance we see back-to-back no-hitters for Max Scherzer? After all, the Phillies are the worst team in baseball against righties for wOBA (.279) and wRC+ (74). There are quite a few hitters in the $2,000 range, where you can build a solid lineup behind Scherzer (I did it), so you have to go with the guy who has 52 points over his last two starts.

Jake took Byron Buxton, early in the day, but switched to Bryce Harper when Buxton went on the DL.

Lawr Micheal’s Disembodied Poetics

John Lackey ($8,800–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) Since I need points, my “crapshoot” is Lackey facing the Cubbies, who are indeed free swingers.

Andrew McCutchen ($4,200–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) With Josh Harrison ($3,300) A minor stack against Williams Perez, who has pitched well enough, but averted disaster by allowing opposing hitters a .324 OBP to go with his 1.377 WHIP.

Scott Swanay’s Stabs

Trevor May ($6,400–Minnesota at Milwuakee) He’s been pitching better of late, and he gets to face a strikeout-prone team(Milwaukee) that’s starting a struggling pitcher (Kyle Lohse).  Max Scherzer seems like the “obvious” pick for tonight, but the Phillies don’t strike out a lot, so I’ll spend my money elsewhere.
Charles Blackmon ($4,400–Colorado at San Francisco) The price tag seems low for a streaking hitter facing a mediocre starter (Tim Hudson).  The only thing that could make this match-up more appealing were if the game were being played at Coors Field.  Brett Gardner was the other hitter I considered tabbing for this week’s contest.

Doug Anderson’s Dailies

Tyson Ross ($8,800–Arizona at San Diego)  – FanDuel has five pitchers priced above  Ross. Just remember this is Tyson Petco Ross we’re talking about. He’s a much different pitcher than Tyson on-the-road Ross. While this year’s splits don’t agree, I’m going with a career’s worth of splits. He’s also coming off a dominant performance of his own against these same Diamondbacks.
Yoenis Cespedes ($3,700–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP) – First of all, I’m not a big believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. BUT, Cespedes is part of maybe the best stack of the night, and he’s 8-for-12 with four home runs off Quintana in his career. It’s a small sample size, but it does tell me Quintana is not going to dominate Cespedes.
Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Francisco Liriano ($9900–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) 7 (8)
Max Scherzer ($12,500–Washington at Philadelphia) 5 (17)
Taijuan Walker ($7,800–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) (12)
Jesse Hahn ($7,800–Kansas City at Oakland) 2 (8)
Alex Colome ($6,400–Boston at Tampa Bay) 2 (5)
John Lackey ($8,800–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis)
Trevor May ($6,400–Minnesota at Milwaukee) (-4.67)
Tyson Ross ($8,800–Arizona at San Diego) 

Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)

Luis Valbuena ($3900–New York Yankees at Houston) 2 (.25)
Jason Heyward ($3700–Chicago Cubs at St. Louis) (-1)
Nolan Arenado ($4,500–Colorado at San Francisco)
Derek Norris ($2,800–Arizona at San Diego) (2.25)
Justin Upton ($3,300–Arizona at San Diego)
Evan Longoria ($2900–Boston at Tampa Bay)
Scott Van Slyke ($3,000–Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami) (8.25)
Josh Donaldson ($4,100–Texas at Toronto) (3.25)
Victor Martinez ($3,300–Chicago White Sox at Detroit) (1.25)
Logan Morrison ($2,400–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) (.25)
Brian Dozier ($3,900–Minnesota at Milwaukee) (7.75)
Kole Calhoun ($2,200–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)
Robinson Cano ($2,600–Seattle at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) (5.25)
Evan Gattis ($3,300–New York Yankees at Houston)
Bryce Harper ($5,300–Washington at Philadelphia)
Andrew McCutchen ($4,200–Atlanta at Pittsburgh) With Josh Harrison ($3,300)
Charles Blackmon ($4,400–Colorado at San Francisco)
Yoenis Cespedes ($3,700–Chicago White Sox at Detroit)
Ian Kinsler ($2,800–Chicago White Sox at Detroit)