SiriusXM covered the auction live on channel 619.
Ray Murphy’s chat transcript is below.
Justin Mason’s video blog is awesome. And hypnotic.
[Mar 15, 8:20 AM] Mgianella: Good morning.
[Mar 15, 8:42 AM] RayHQ: good morning gang!
[Mar 15, 8:43 AM] rotoman: Good morning Ray and Mike.
[Mar 15, 8:43 AM] Mgianella: nice to be done (well, until whenever my home league reconvenes)
[Mar 15, 8:54 AM] Guest7561: Good morning! Thanks for doing this. Any chance of a twitch tv stream like DVR did for the AL yesterday? It was great to be able to watch the bidding.
[Mar 15, 8:56 AM] RayHQ: I’m your host today and I’m not set up for that, sorry…
[Mar 15, 8:57 AM] Mgianella: Justin Mason is doing something on Twitter that includes a stream.
[Mar 15, 8:57 AM] Guest7561: Thanks!
[Mar 15, 8:58 AM] Mgianella: Justin’s Twitter is @JustinMasonFWFB if you’re not as online as I am…
[Mar 15, 9:00 AM] Guest4401: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1mrxmQzEOkMxy
[Mar 15, 9:03 AM] RayHQ: starting in 12 minutes, I hear…\
[Mar 15, 9:04 AM] Jay-Z: Who let Rudy in?
[Mar 15, 9:04 AM] rudygamble: When the dogs got out, i snuck in
[Mar 15, 9:04 AM] Jay-Z: Congrats
[Mar 15, 9:06 AM] rudygamble: the auction has been going on for 5 minutes and no bid is in. How high can they bid up Ronald Acuna Jr?
[Mar 15, 9:07 AM] Jay-Z: It’ll start at 15 after
[Mar 15, 9:07 AM] Jay-Z: At least ours did
[Mar 15, 9:08 AM] Mgianella: yup, 9:15
[Mar 15, 9:08 AM] Mgianella: and there could be glitches with the fantrax draft board too
[Mar 15, 9:09 AM] Piels25: O/U on Acuna at $40
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] rudygamble: i’d set it at $43
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] rotoman: What are the glitches like Mike.
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] rudygamble: went for $42 at NL LABR
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] RayHQ: Trout went 53 in the AL, I’ll say over 40 easily for both Acuna and Yelich
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] Piels25: Either Acuna or Yelich break 50 here?
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] Jay-Z: Last night it was locking up a few teams when the bidding started
[Mar 15, 9:11 AM] rudygamble: Trout is such an OBP monster
[Mar 15, 9:12 AM] RayHQ: fair… yelich no slouch in that dept either
[Mar 15, 9:12 AM] Jay-Z: Teams needed to reconnect right at the start
[Mar 15, 9:12 AM] RayHQ: justin’s live stream says 3 min
[Mar 15, 9:12 AM] Guest214: $48-$50 for both Acuña and Yelich
[Mar 15, 9:13 AM] rudygamble: it just takes two to bid it up
[Mar 15, 9:14 AM] rudygamble: i have 5 hitters worth $40+
[Mar 15, 9:15 AM] RayHQ: deGrom the first nomination from Phil. No surprise
[Mar 15, 9:16 AM] BrentHQ: Morning all! I’m here to harass the moderator
[Mar 15, 9:16 AM] RayHQ:
[Mar 15, 9:16 AM] RayHQ: deGrom to Tristan for 38, and we’re underway
[Mar 15, 9:17 AM] RayHQ: Tatis for 30 and Acuna’s up now
[Mar 15, 9:18 AM] RayHQ: Acuna 44…. shockingly, Rudy knew what he was talking about 🙂
[Mar 15, 9:19 AM] rudygamble: only with hitters….the one quirk i find with Only leagues is SP prices really ramp up for aces and down for flotsam
[Mar 15, 9:20 AM] RayHQ: decent pace here, 6 players in
[Mar 15, 9:20 AM] RayHQ: Cards writer Brian Walton gets Jack Flaherty for 27… always want to take notice when Brian grabs a Card. Endorsement from the inside
[Mar 15, 9:21 AM] Piels25: Bryant for 30 seems steep…
[Mar 15, 9:21 AM] rudygamble: i had Bryant worth $31. it’s the OBP bonus
[Mar 15, 9:21 AM] rudygamble: 3B/OF a nice combo too
[Mar 15, 9:22 AM] RayHQ: after winning Hader for 23, Justin Mason then nominates Lewis Brinson and gets him for a buck
[Mar 15, 9:22 AM] Jay-Z: Here are the pitcher/hitter splits from the mixed last night. 66% is the historic average which was hit again but quite a spread between teams.
[Mar 15, 9:22 AM] Jay-Z: Eric Karabell 75.0%
Derek VanRiper 72.3%
Ron Shandler 71.2%
Michael Rathburn 70.4%
Zach Steinhorn 70.4%
Brent Hershey 70.0%
Al Melchior 69.6%
Scott Swanay 69.2%
Bret Sayre 67.3%
Jeff Zimmerman 65.8%
Joe Pisapia 63.1%
Scott Pianowski 63.1%
Jake Ciely 61.9%
Scott Engel 56.2%
Gene McCaffrey 51.5%
[Mar 15, 9:23 AM] RayHQ: 3 straight buys for Justin Mason… Yelich for 43
[Mar 15, 9:23 AM] Jay-Z: I think Rudy noticed the same trend of a wide spread.
[Mar 15, 9:23 AM] rudygamble: Tout Mixed Snake had 4 teams < 60% hit
[Mar 15, 9:24 AM] rudygamble: never seen that before
[Mar 15, 9:24 AM] rudygamble: i think it was 64/36 but auction seems to add a % or two to hit
[Mar 15, 9:24 AM] BrentHQ: Interesting stuff Jay-Z on the MixAuc breakdowns
[Mar 15, 9:25 AM] rudygamble: Bellinger to Grey for $41 is my favorite buy of the draft so far (unsurprising i know)
[Mar 15, 9:26 AM] Piels25: Grey hammering offense early. Soto for $40.
[Mar 15, 9:27 AM] Jay-Z: I don’t mind the Brinson for $1. The hitting in the NL thins fast.
[Mar 15, 9:28 AM] rudygamble: Soto/Bellinger/Ketel is quite the foundation for Grey. Last year he had Machado/Soto/Trea
[Mar 15, 9:29 AM] rudygamble: Brinson is fine at $1 but very bearish on his chances this year
[Mar 15, 9:30 AM] rudygamble: Villar at CF to start says it all
[Mar 15, 9:30 AM] RayHQ: rudy, i’m at least a little intrigued by the lack of strikeouts this spring
[Mar 15, 9:31 AM] RayHQ: compare/contrast the early spenders here: Albright with Marte/Bellinger/Soto for 107, or Kreutzer with Acuna/Buehler/Albies for 103
[Mar 15, 9:32 AM] rudygamble: both nice starts.
[Mar 15, 9:32 AM] Mgianella: I lean Peter but really depends on how they fill in later
[Mar 15, 9:32 AM] rudygamble: i think if you like category balance as a tiebreaker, gotta lean towards Peter
[Mar 15, 9:32 AM] RayHQ: gardner and zola the last two guys w/o a buy
[Mar 15, 9:32 AM] RayHQ: scratch that… Zola gets Yates for 18
[Mar 15, 9:33 AM] rudygamble: only thing Peter doesn’t get with that trio is OBP (which you really want from your $$$ guys in this format)
[Mar 15, 9:34 AM] rudygamble: grey may end up like me in Tout Mixed where I scavenged to get to ‘league average’ for SBs
[Mar 15, 9:34 AM] RayHQ: very valid strategy w/o an overall contest to worry about
[Mar 15, 9:35 AM] Jay-Z: I had issues finding speed in mine auction but tried to live in the 5 to 15 range.
[Mar 15, 9:36 AM] RayHQ: i dont have last year’s standings handy, but mid-category for SB must have been what, 85 or so? you can certainly “5 to 15” that
[Mar 15, 9:36 AM] UrsoEsq: Thought same thing re: OBP. Albies and Acuna aren’t huge OBP.
[Mar 15, 9:37 AM] UrsoEsq: Grey will probably get guys like Kingery for SBs
[Mar 15, 9:38 AM] Jay-Z: Billy Hamilton, starting CF for the SF Giants
[Mar 15, 9:41 AM] Jay-Z: Fred and I were to do some NFBC drafts together and the Darvish pick is not surprising at all
[Mar 15, 9:43 AM] RayHQ: recent pitching cluster, pick your fave… thor 22, kershaw 24, strasburg 23, paddack 22, darvish 24, bauer 22.
[Mar 15, 9:45 AM] Guest9798: Thor 22
[Mar 15, 9:45 AM] RayHQ: meanwhile albright and kreutzer have each added a 4th big bat: Hiura for 26 joins bellinger/soto/KMarte, while kreutzer adds Arenado to acuna/buehler/albies
[Mar 15, 9:45 AM] rudygamble: i would take strasburg $23
[Mar 15, 9:46 AM] rudygamble: hiura was $23
[Mar 15, 9:46 AM] RayHQ: ah, thanks rudy
[Mar 15, 9:46 AM] rudygamble: Grey just took him to suck up to the NFBC guys
[Mar 15, 9:47 AM] Guest9798: Anyone concerned Strasburg is being bought at his ceiling/best case scenario when he has history of injuries? Good pitcher but higher era even when healthy
[Mar 15, 9:48 AM] rudygamble: honestly…i haven’t drafted an SP b/w DeGrom and Nola all year
[Mar 15, 9:48 AM] rudygamble: scared of them all
[Mar 15, 9:48 AM] rudygamble: (and only one Nola share….i do have a Morton which is about the same?)
[Mar 15, 9:48 AM] RayHQ: yeah, there really arent a lot of safe havens out there. But this price (23) doesnt feel like full price to me.
[Mar 15, 9:49 AM] RayHQ: he’s been pushed up even more in mixed leagues, with the attrition at the top of the pool from the AL side
[Mar 15, 9:50 AM] UrsoEsq: I’m scared of all those pitchers at those prices. Maybe for 15-18. But not that price.
[Mar 15, 9:50 AM] Guest9798: Yeah I see argument that a lot of top pitchers have concerns. I personally love Flaherty and Thor if he figures out slider
[Mar 15, 9:51 AM] RayHQ: when we see some SP go in the 15-18 range here, we can contrast those guys with the 22-24 tier
[Mar 15, 9:51 AM] RayHQ: MadBum just went 12… basically two tiers down
[Mar 15, 9:52 AM] RayHQ: corbin at 22 joins the tier i listed above.
[Mar 15, 9:54 AM] UrsoEsq: The point will not be, are the 15-18 pitchers as “good” as the 22-25 pitchers, but rather would I like to have 22-25 hitters instead of those pitchers.
[Mar 15, 9:54 AM] rudygamble: i like Corbin at that price
[Mar 15, 9:54 AM] RayHQ: Walton (Flaherty) and Melnick (Robles) are the last owners w/one player rostered
[Mar 15, 9:54 AM] RayHQ: of course, Urso 🙂
[Mar 15, 9:57 AM] rudygamble: so Bryce still hasn’t been nominated?
[Mar 15, 9:57 AM] UrsoEsq: Though I will admit, JT Realmuto, Villar etc., do not excite me at those prices. Much rather a couple dollars more for Muncy or Alonso. No way JT is worth only like $4-5 less than those 2.
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] UrsoEsq: Bryce for $33-35. That’d be my guess.
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] RayHQ: bryce just went to hertz for 37
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] rudygamble: Harper for $37….not as much of a discount as I would’ve thought given where we are in the draft
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] Guest9798: Would rather have Corbin at 22 than Nola at 33
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] RayHQ: last of the$30 players on my board
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] rudygamble: i’d prefer Scherzer at 11
[Mar 15, 9:58 AM] RayHQ: nola 23, not 33
[Mar 15, 9:59 AM] Guest9798: *23
[Mar 15, 9:59 AM] Guest9798: My bad
[Mar 15, 9:59 AM] rudygamble: yes, Corbin probably the best buy….just a matter of timing there w/ Nola being the last guy on the board
[Mar 15, 9:59 AM] UrsoEsq: Looks like Betts is a good price at $37
[Mar 15, 9:59 AM] rotoman: Betts is a good price..
[Mar 15, 10:02 AM] RayHQ: getting some catcher activity here beyond realmuto…. contreras 17, WSmith14, Narvaez 13
[Mar 15, 10:04 AM] UrsoEsq: Give me all the Carson Kelly. Especially in OBP.
[Mar 15, 10:05 AM] Guest9798: Curious how much Bell will go compared to goldy. Give me all the Bell
[Mar 15, 10:07 AM] UrsoEsq: Woodruff for only $1 less than Corbin, doesn’t seem right.
[Mar 15, 10:07 AM] UrsoEsq: Corbin buy looking better.
[Mar 15, 10:08 AM] RayHQ: woodruff is near top of my list of guys whose value jumps w/shortened season. biggest knock on him was IP ceiling, thats less of an issue
[Mar 15, 10:08 AM] UrsoEsq: Fair point.
[Mar 15, 10:09 AM] rob_leibowitz: Greetings all. Stopping by to say hello and check in on NL Tout.
[Mar 15, 10:09 AM] UrsoEsq: Still doesn’t look so right next to Corbin. I’d say $5-6 less than Corbin is fair, but will take your point.
[Mar 15, 10:10 AM] Guest9798: Good morning, and completely agree about Corbin
[Mar 15, 10:11 AM] rudygamble: Woodruff is just one of those pitchers this year with ‘buzz’ unsupported by the main projection sources
[Mar 15, 10:11 AM] rob_leibowitz: First glance it looks like the bidding is closer to expected pricing at NL Tout than AL, that’s just a quick glance though.
[Mar 15, 10:11 AM] UrsoEsq: Hoskins, S. Marte, Goldy, Blackmon prices making Ketel Marte, Alonso, Muncy prices look better. IMO.
[Mar 15, 10:12 AM] rudygamble: i see the appeal….but a little scary to bank on a pitcher who hasn’t been elite/near elite for 150+ IP before
[Mar 15, 10:12 AM] Tim McLeod: Good morning and greetings from up North. Agree, Rudy. I’ll take the boring Corbin.
[Mar 15, 10:12 AM] Guest9798: Would rather have wheeler who gets close to 200 innings and has a better catcher to frame pitches on Phillies
[Mar 15, 10:12 AM] rudygamble: i have Wheeler worth more too
[Mar 15, 10:12 AM] rudygamble: yes…Milwaukee losing Grandal
[Mar 15, 10:13 AM] UrsoEsq: Agree, Rudy. Hence my $5-6 difference from Corbin. Wheeler should be about 15-17 based on what prices are for pitchers above him. (Corbin. Etc.)
[Mar 15, 10:14 AM] rudygamble: No discount on Pham $30 for Walton (who is seemingly only drafting Cards and ex-Cards) but he is a unicorn of sorts….strong OBP + strong SB + solid in other three
[Mar 15, 10:15 AM] RayHQ: Wheeler just went 19.
[Mar 15, 10:15 AM] UrsoEsq: Pham for 30 or Pete Alonso for 30. To me, it’s not even close.
[Mar 15, 10:16 AM] RayHQ: again, Pham’s a darling in this format. I got him in the Mixed Straight Draft because of that unicorn thing Rudy mentions
[Mar 15, 10:18 AM] UrsoEsq: Even with Pham good OBP, Alonso, to me, the better pick.
[Mar 15, 10:18 AM] RayHQ: hey, thats why we play, right?
[Mar 15, 10:19 AM] UrsoEsq: Yeppers
[Mar 15, 10:20 AM] UrsoEsq: I just love the auctions play out and to see things like Woodruff for $1 less than Corbin. When in a snake draft, I doubt we’d see Corbin and Woodfuff in the same round.
[Mar 15, 10:20 AM] rudygamble: i had it Alonso $31 to Pham $2
[Mar 15, 10:20 AM] rudygamble: $29
[Mar 15, 10:21 AM] rudygamble: do not like Alonso’s value/ADP in standard 5×5 but it’s solid in this format
[Mar 15, 10:22 AM] Guest9798: I agree Alonso way too high in standard
[Mar 15, 10:22 AM] UrsoEsq: I gotta say, 32 years old for an SB artist makes me nervous too. I would have Pham a little lower than $29
[Mar 15, 10:22 AM] Guest9798: I would have Pham at 25-27 max with those same concerns
[Mar 15, 10:22 AM] RayHQ: might be time to start watching derek carty, as he’s holding by far the most $, has only 3 players (Suarez, Bryant, Scherzer)
[Mar 15, 10:23 AM] Guest9798: Someone going to get bell at great price. I think he’s better than goldy so we will see if he goes for similar price
[Mar 15, 10:24 AM] RayHQ: bell just went…. 27
[Mar 15, 10:24 AM] Guest9798: Good timing
[Mar 15, 10:24 AM] Guest9798: $
[Mar 15, 10:24 AM] Guest9798: $1 cheaper
[Mar 15, 10:24 AM] UrsoEsq: Eduardo Escobar at 23 seems high. Maybe the pitchers at 22-24 don’t seem too bad! Escobar at 23 or Pat Corbin at 22… not even close IMO
[Mar 15, 10:25 AM] RayHQ: fyi, i didnt fully bake my values for this, but i had goldy 28 to bell 25 here
[Mar 15, 10:25 AM] RayHQ: urso, i agree… not wild about the high-teens bat values here
[Mar 15, 10:26 AM] RayHQ: first break in 5 min
[Mar 15, 10:26 AM] UrsoEsq: Escobar should be like 10-12 in this crop. 23 is crazy especially next to Corbin, Kershaw, Nola..
[Mar 15, 10:26 AM] Guest6352: Nerds
[Mar 15, 10:27 AM] Guest9798: Just my opinion that goldy is a big bust candidate at his going rate. He couldn’t catch up to fastballs last year so pitchers aren’t as afraid to go at him
[Mar 15, 10:29 AM] UrsoEsq: Joey Votto for $20. Mind blowing. Insanity.
[Mar 15, 10:30 AM] UrsoEsq: Again, Pat Corbin for $22 or Joey Votto for $20. I mean, seriously.
[Mar 15, 10:30 AM] RayHQ: i had him right at 20 on my grid, actually. Again, OBP is king.
[Mar 15, 10:31 AM] RayHQ: break time! draft resumes at 10:45
[Mar 15, 10:31 AM] UrsoEsq: Last year was .357. Not an OBP king anymore. He’s getting old. Just the way it goes. You think he goes back .400 OBP?
[Mar 15, 10:31 AM] Guest9798: I guess it comes down to it you think you can get value pitching or hitters at the end. Hitting deeper than pitching
[Mar 15, 10:31 AM] UrsoEsq: 15 HR.
[Mar 15, 10:32 AM] RayHQ: our projection at BHQ is .379 OBP, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 82 Runs, 5 SB. That’s $20 here
[Mar 15, 10:32 AM] RayHQ: remember, if he is good enough to stick at #2 in that revised lineup, he’ll score a lot of runs
[Mar 15, 10:33 AM] RayHQ: basically, $20 assumes a modest rebound. If you think he’s toast, yeah, its way too much
[Mar 15, 10:33 AM] Guest9798: Will heavily take the under on obp and home runs but I hope you are right, he’s one of my favorite players to watch
[Mar 15, 10:34 AM] rudygamble: yes, Votto is one of those players i’m not touchign this year despite there being ‘value’
[Mar 15, 10:34 AM] UrsoEsq: I think assuming a rebound from a 36 year old is tough. His decline started 2nd half of 2018. I’d pay $5 for him in this format.
[Mar 15, 10:35 AM] rudygamble: wouldn’t be shocking to see him sit against LHP and move Castellanos to 1B
[Mar 15, 10:35 AM] rudygamble: he is such a Carty purchase too.
[Mar 15, 10:36 AM] UrsoEsq: At least I know for my league, I can nominate Votto and not worry about no bidding more than $1. Watch people bid him up.
[Mar 15, 10:37 AM] BrentHQ: Other thing to remember is that Carty is sitting there with most most $. At some point we all know (and he) knows you gotta spend it … just that those real-time dynamics (who’s left, when it was nominated) play more of a role than just “is Votto worth $20?”
[Mar 15, 10:38 AM] Guest9798: There’s always someone that likes him more than me so I’ll never get him. I drafted him 3rd round in a snake draft that had obp last year and he was terrible. Still won that league because I got lucky on Soler, Gardner, cahna
[Mar 15, 10:38 AM] UrsoEsq: Agree have to spend it, but it looks like he made a mistake holding it then overpaying
[Mar 15, 10:38 AM] BrentHQ: Hear ya … whenever we’re in that situation, we still have to make that call
[Mar 15, 10:38 AM] UrsoEsq: That’s the fun of auctions. Have to watch values throughout
[Mar 15, 10:39 AM] BrentHQ: Indeed
[Mar 15, 10:40 AM] UrsoEsq: If he priced Votto at $20 and Corbin lower than $22 then god bless him. If not, he made huge error in the room
[Mar 15, 10:40 AM] BrentHQ: But sometimes from the outside we all fail to take fully into account the in-room dynamics. The $, especially in these one-year leagues, is just the mechanicsm buy which you acquire your roster.
[Mar 15, 10:40 AM] BrentHQ: But yes, we all still have to make that call
[Mar 15, 10:41 AM] rudygamble: yes. i think we put way too much focus on the occasional nice relative purchase of Corbin $@2
[Mar 15, 10:41 AM] rudygamble: $22
[Mar 15, 10:41 AM] Jay-Z: I use the $20 line for when I need to eventually get in. I was playing with fire last night sitting there with a ton of money but eventually the cost vs my values lined up
[Mar 15, 10:41 AM] rudygamble: really doesn’t matter much
[Mar 15, 10:41 AM] UrsoEsq: I just feel like there’s no way on planet earth, Coronavirus and all, that Joey Votto is worth $20 and Pat Corbin is $22.
[Mar 15, 10:42 AM] rudygamble: the $20 line does create illogical bids sometimes
[Mar 15, 10:42 AM] rudygamble: although racing to the $19 bid didn’t seem to be a winning strategy on SPs
[Mar 15, 10:42 AM] Jay-Z: I use $20 because I found one Standard Deviation of player outcomes to be $8
[Mar 15, 10:43 AM] UrsoEsq: Take them all, Darvish, Corbin, Nola, Kershaw for 22-23. Joey Votto $20. Seems illogical. But alas, this is why I’m an attorney and they’re the experts.
[Mar 15, 10:43 AM] BrentHQ: Oh, and I was at that same place last night, Jay-Z — and usually find myself at that place in every auction I do. Part of it
[Mar 15, 10:43 AM] Jay-Z: So any $20 player is between $4 and $36 (2 SD)
[Mar 15, 10:43 AM] Jay-Z: Under $20, the player can drop below replacement level
[Mar 15, 10:45 AM] rudygamble: i think so much of Only leagues is nailing your core…and if it costs an extra $5 vs budget, hard to make the case that really matters
[Mar 15, 10:46 AM] rudygamble: i am not playing Only these days but I’d likely veer that way based on value vs projected bids as opposed to trying to get some fluky nominal savings based on auction room dynamics
[Mar 15, 10:47 AM] RayHQ: back in 1 min
[Mar 15, 10:47 AM] RayHQ: Urias for 13 kicks off the 2nd segment
[Mar 15, 10:48 AM] UrsoEsq: I’m with you Rudy on that. But sometimes something is out of whack that is an error. And $20 for Votto compared to others near that price is not a good look as the kids say.
[Mar 15, 10:51 AM] rudygamble: it is not an error…Votto is worth $24 in this format. it’s just preference
[Mar 15, 10:51 AM] rudygamble: i share your preference
[Mar 15, 10:52 AM] UrsoEsq: Though I do feel like Only leagues lead to an ability for really good auction drafters to take advantage since there’s less information out there. Smart drafters, like you Rudy!, can take advantage of that knowledge gap.
[Mar 15, 10:54 AM] rudygamble: always depends on room. i think when playing with fellow analysts or NFBC (which is 100% of my leagues), i’m never banking on suboptimal drafting
[Mar 15, 10:55 AM] rudygamble: which i think is the conceit of ‘value’ drafting
[Mar 15, 10:56 AM] UrsoEsq: Fair enough. But when I see things like Votto $20. Corbin $22, makes me do a double take
[Mar 15, 10:59 AM] RayHQ: starting to get an ideal of the next tier down of pitchers… and it looks like there might not be much of a high-teens tier at all….
[Mar 15, 10:59 AM] UrsoEsq: Anyway, does Jensen and Diaz at the same price feel right?
[Mar 15, 10:59 AM] RayHQ: since break: Urias 13, Lamet 13, Ray 15, CMart 13
[Mar 15, 11:00 AM] RayHQ: i dont see a lot of SP left who are going to go above that group. Kyle Hendricks, probably. After that…. Fried maybe? Luke Weaver? SP pool getting pretty well picked through
[Mar 15, 11:00 AM] rudygamble: agreed
[Mar 15, 11:02 AM] UrsoEsq: Another thing that sticks out. Brandon Belt for $15. Just feels like too much for a JAG. Rather have Gallen, Lamet, etc.
[Mar 15, 11:02 AM] RayHQ: urso… diaz/jansen prices didnt bother me. I thought Bradley 12 and Kela 10 were the best CL buys so far
[Mar 15, 11:03 AM] rudygamble: i like Bradley…especially if you grab Ginkel as a cheap handcuff
[Mar 15, 11:03 AM] rudygamble: i had Diaz/Jansen both in the $16 range
[Mar 15, 11:03 AM] RayHQ: someone mentioned carson kelly… he just went for 12
[Mar 15, 11:04 AM] RayHQ: musgrove 13 joins the low-teens SP tier
[Mar 15, 11:04 AM] rudygamble: musgrove was $9 in NL LABR
[Mar 15, 11:04 AM] rudygamble: imagine that was a 2 person bidding war
[Mar 15, 11:06 AM] RayHQ: hendricks just went for 14. that might be the best SP buy of the day in my book
[Mar 15, 11:07 AM] RayHQ: fried up now, that’ll close out this SP tier. Maybe the last double-digit SP
[Mar 15, 11:07 AM] rudygamble: i had fried going for $15
[Mar 15, 11:07 AM] rudygamble: in chatting w/ grey
[Mar 15, 11:08 AM] RayHQ: he did go 15
[Mar 15, 11:08 AM] RayHQ: almost like you know what you’re doing here, Rudy 🙂
[Mar 15, 11:09 AM] UrsoEsq: Weaver has to be 8-9ish in my book I’d probably pay 10
[Mar 15, 11:10 AM] rudygamble: yeah, i’m smh at grey
[Mar 15, 11:10 AM] rudygamble: he was at $14
[Mar 15, 11:11 AM] rudygamble: i would’ve jumped to $15 and forced someone to top me
[Mar 15, 11:11 AM] UrsoEsq: Grey has Fried at 14?
[Mar 15, 11:11 AM] rudygamble: no, he bid $14
[Mar 15, 11:11 AM] UrsoEsq: Weaver next in my book. I’d go to 10
[Mar 15, 11:11 AM] rudygamble: he is laughably $14.9 in our draft room
[Mar 15, 11:11 AM] rudygamble: which is what he costs if you buy him at an NL only gas station
[Mar 15, 11:12 AM] UrsoEsq: But Fried at 15 and some others at that price seem MUCH better than Brandon Belt. Am I missing something here?
[Mar 15, 11:13 AM] rudygamble: do you play Only leagues?
[Mar 15, 11:13 AM] RayHQ: One of the Giants writers just did an analysis yesterday that showed the SF park changes would have netted Belt +7 HR last year. Plus he’s 1B/OF elig here (15 game elig, not 20). Two small indicators in his favor.
[Mar 15, 11:14 AM] rudygamble: i had belt at $16 w/ $13 as his $/Game. so he gets a playing time bonus and delivers solid counting stats. 1B/CI can drop off a cliff (like just about every other position)
[Mar 15, 11:15 AM] rudygamble: JAGs w/ secure playing time feel overpriced in this format
[Mar 15, 11:15 AM] rudygamble: if you play mixed
[Mar 15, 11:15 AM] UrsoEsq: alright, fair enough. Just seems a little out of whack against some of the other names. I guess count me as the person who would have been buying bats at 25ish and then pitchers at this level.
[Mar 15, 11:15 AM] rudygamble: it also means screwing up on playing time assumptions can be really ad
[Mar 15, 11:15 AM] rudygamble: bad
[Mar 15, 11:16 AM] UrsoEsq: Yes, I play a 13 team pretty deep mixed (4 OF starter and 2 util) but Belt at 15 vs others around the same price seems odd to me
[Mar 15, 11:17 AM] rudygamble: just a different beast. i wouldn’t draft belt in standard 15 team
[Mar 15, 11:17 AM] rudygamble: but $15 is his value here
[Mar 15, 11:17 AM] UrsoEsq: I would be buying Fried at 15… Lamet… Weaver… Sonny Gray… etc.
[Mar 15, 11:18 AM] rudygamble: Berti and Dyson are two guys who went at prices suggesting near full-time gigs IMO
[Mar 15, 11:18 AM] UrsoEsq: I would be buying Lamet, Fried, Sonny Gray in the teens and not Belt.
[Mar 15, 11:19 AM] rudygamble: speed premium obviously
[Mar 15, 11:19 AM] UrsoEsq: Sorry double post
[Mar 15, 11:19 AM] Guest9798: Anyone else like jd Davis at 16 more than Rosario at 22 or is it all about steals and guaranteed playing time? I think Davis has more upside for obp and power
[Mar 15, 11:20 AM] rudygamble: Rosario at $22 was surprising. He loses value in OBP.
[Mar 15, 11:20 AM] rudygamble: but $25 in NL LABR
[Mar 15, 11:20 AM] UrsoEsq: Now, I like Kingery but $23? Again that seems out of whack.
[Mar 15, 11:20 AM] rudygamble: i had him at $19….but, honestly, would rather pay +$3 for Rosario than +$5 on a Dyson/Berti
[Mar 15, 11:21 AM] Guest9798: Thanks for answering my question, I’m way more familiar with snake draft leagues 10 team to 16 team
[Mar 15, 11:21 AM] RayHQ: only guy left after rosario who i had projected for 20+ SB was Roman Quinn… so yeah, bidding war on Rosario among those who still needed SB. I had him at 17
[Mar 15, 11:21 AM] rudygamble: Kingery at $23 may be the worst value i have so far
[Mar 15, 11:22 AM] UrsoEsq: Seems to me in this draft it was better to spend early. These guys going late are not valued right compared to earlier.
[Mar 15, 11:22 AM] RayHQ: position matters, too. I see a lot of OFs i still like w/values in the teens. if you held OF spots, you might clean up here
[Mar 15, 11:23 AM] UrsoEsq: Ray.. Unless they get bid up to the 20s like Kingery.
[Mar 15, 11:23 AM] Guest9798: Tristan in good shape to fill in outfield
[Mar 15, 11:24 AM] RayHQ: well yeah, my point is that there is a whole tier of them, not all of them will get bid up. Money’s gonna run out at some poitn
[Mar 15, 11:24 AM] RayHQ: luke weaver went for 9, closes out that SP tier for me
[Mar 15, 11:24 AM] rudygamble: i have one more guy in that range
[Mar 15, 11:25 AM] UrsoEsq: Good price on weaver
[Mar 15, 11:25 AM] RayHQ: mikolas is highest SP on my board, and i havent adjusted his price for the shortened season. (He’ll gain, of course). That your #1, Rudy?
[Mar 15, 11:25 AM] RayHQ: Stroman just went 11
[Mar 15, 11:26 AM] UrsoEsq: Prob Stroman
[Mar 15, 11:28 AM] RayHQ: first $20+ bat buy in a while… Christian Walker 22
[Mar 15, 11:28 AM] RayHQ: much prefer Moustakas at that price, 20 minutes ago
[Mar 15, 11:29 AM] rudygamble: it was Stroman (at least among non-Rockies who are stomach punches to own)
[Mar 15, 11:29 AM] rudygamble: yes, not a fan of Walker. his floor is brutal
[Mar 15, 11:30 AM] rudygamble: i have Walker at $16, Moustakas at $25
[Mar 15, 11:31 AM] UrsoEsq: What do you have Kingery at?
[Mar 15, 11:32 AM] UrsoEsq: 23 seemed high compared to other names at that price.
[Mar 15, 11:36 AM] rudygamble: $13 for Kingery
[Mar 15, 11:38 AM] UrsoEsq: Yeah. Was much better to spend early on bats. Buy one pitcher in 22 tier then a few at 10-15. That’s the winning strategy in this look
[Mar 15, 11:42 AM] Mgianella: I had Kingery at $15
[Mar 15, 11:47 AM] RayHQ: Phil Hertz has all of Belt, Posey, Longoria now. Almost seems like he thinks that SF lineup is undervalued
[Mar 15, 11:49 AM] BobbyJHey: How is the online auction working out? Thinking about using it as well for my league.
[Mar 15, 11:53 AM] UrsoEsq: I’m going to put on a limb and say the SF Giants strategy is not good.
[Mar 15, 11:54 AM] UrsoEsq: Do like young Yaz though as a dart throw. Leading off maybe. Underlying stat were good. Gotta be right price though.
[Mar 15, 11:57 AM] RayHQ: @bobby, I can’t say directly as I haven’t been in any of these auctions, but this one seems to be going smoothly. Haven’t seen any glitches; I think this one’s only been paused once
[Mar 15, 12:00 PM] Mgianella: There were a couple of people who had issues with the room/screen freezing up yesterday. Not today.
[Mar 15, 12:02 PM] rotoman: No glitches. Good pace. Only issue is thinking you’re making a last bid and having it go up by 2 because someone else in just before you.
[Mar 15, 12:03 PM] rotoman: Some dont have sound, but that would be a blessing.
[Mar 15, 12:03 PM] RayHQ: checking in on the back end of the LA rotation: Urias 13, May 4, Wood 6… stripling, gonsolin still on the board.
[Mar 15, 12:03 PM] RayHQ: (those guys following Buehler 30, Kershaw 24, Price 16)
[Mar 15, 12:05 PM] rotoman: Buehler was a guy who jumped up.
[Mar 15, 12:05 PM] RayHQ: and the catcher pool deserves an overview too: JTReal 24, Contreras 17, WSmith 14, Narvaez 13, Ramos 13, Kelly 12, Posey 10, Yadi 9, Suzuki 7, Alfaro 7, Barnhart 5
[Mar 15, 12:06 PM] RayHQ: looks like we’re on break #2 here
[Mar 15, 12:06 PM] Mgianella: more aggressive on C today than in LABR NL
[Mar 15, 12:08 PM] RayHQ: 79 players in the first segment, 74 in 2nd. 153 of 276 rostered (before reserves)
[Mar 15, 12:13 PM] rotoman: Buying 2 good catchers was a Mike Lombardo canard.
[Mar 15, 12:16 PM] Mgianella: I spent $27 on two crummy catchers in NL Tout in the year I won it.
[Mar 15, 12:17 PM] rotoman: I hope I spent 27 on two good ones.
[Mar 15, 12:17 PM] Scott Gilroy: Was sad to hear Mike had passed. He always stopped by Foleys during Tout weekend
[Mar 15, 12:17 PM] Scott Gilroy: Good guy
[Mar 15, 12:23 PM] UrsoEsq: Am I off on Kolten Wong? 16 seems high. Also I think in yesterday’s mixed he went for much higher than I would have thought.
[Mar 15, 12:25 PM] rudygamble: agreed on Mike
[Mar 15, 12:27 PM] Guest9798: Desclafani big sleeper
[Mar 15, 12:28 PM] Guest9798: Seth lugo should be good pick later
[Mar 15, 12:31 PM] RayHQ: i had wong right at 16
[Mar 15, 12:34 PM] RayHQ: agree that lugo will be a nice buy. very surprised that emilio pagan just slipped through for 2
[Mar 15, 12:40 PM] UrsoEsq: Wong is one that seems high to me. Again, I would have been pitchers at that level. Then wait for the lower hitters again at 5-11.
[Mar 15, 12:42 PM] RayHQ: pollock is an example of that tier of OF i was talking about. I had him at 11, he went for 7. there’s still a pile of those guys out there, and based on how much money is left, they’re all going to go more like 4-8 instead of 8-14
[Mar 15, 12:48 PM] UrsoEsq: Which is where the value is and why paying for bats early, then pitchers middle, then bats late was the right strategy. The middle bats think 12-23 were over valued IMO.
[Mar 15, 12:58 PM] RayHQ: wilderman and zinkie are the two best positioned to capitalize on OFs, though with 2 UT and most ppl having at least one still open, everyone can get a bite.
[Mar 15, 1:13 PM] Guest9798: A lot of good value here
[Mar 15, 1:30 PM] UrsoEsq: Appreciate the discussion today. Good luck to all and stay safe
[Mar 15, 1:50 PM] DerekVanRiper: Good Afternoon/Good Morning, all