Welcome to this week’s Tout Table. We received some great responses to the following question:
Who are you especially worried about based on their early season performance?
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Probably several guys, but I’ll just mention Oscar Gonzalez, as he’s become a platoon player for now, and on the wrong side of the platoon. He’s a bust if this doesn’t change. I dropped him in a mixed league but can only wait and hope for my AL-only leagues
Garion Thorne (DraftKings, @GarionThorne): Alek Manoah. I had some concerns coming into the season that he was a better real-life pitcher than fantasy asset, but every red flag has grown exponentially through four starts. The BABIP and home run rate normalization, the control issues, the drop in fastball velocity. It’s all worrisome and with a lack of elite strikeout ability it’s now unclear what Manoah’s upside truly is.
Matt Trussell (Razzball, @MattTruss): Alek Manoah – I was excited after seeing some nice spring training pitching from Manoah and have him anchoring a couple pitching staffs. A 1:1 K:BB ratio is…not great and I’m worried he’s hiding an injury or something. I’m riding this out, but the concern level is high.
Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): Jake McCarthy was a solid OF2 target at around pick 100 with the hope of 35+ SB and solid R/RBI thanks to batting order position. His floor was clearly less than ideal, though, for the draft capital. The playing time has generally been there, but his hitting, batting order position, and relative lack of SBs has been disconcerting. He’s a guy I’d want to bench (if rostered) in mixed league and would drop later this month if nothing changes.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): When Jesse Winker has a sprint speed that is slower than Salvy Perez(!!) it is time to be worried. Can’t play a dude in the OF who already was D challenged before that revelation. Alex Wood looks like he might be cooked. Others–way way too early to tell, for the most part.
Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): Tyler O’Neill. .675 OPS through 16 games and a career-high 35.8% K rate indicates no progress – and this is with a .367 BABIP! His one above-average season was back in 2021 and that is looking like the outlier. He’s only been able to play more than 100 games once, yet was a Top 100 ADP player in 2023. I’d trade him now if I could get anywhere near comparable value.
Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): For pitchers, I like to look at per-pitch metrics (Ball%, swinging-strike rate, fastball velocity) to see who might be in trouble. This year’s “standouts” include Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, and Carlos Carrasco; all of whom rate poorly compared to last year. Ring the alarms.
Scott Engel (The Game Day, @ScottETheKing): I steered away from Sandy Alcantara in drafts, as I thought he was overrated. Yes, he was a Cy Young winner, but he doesn’t get enough strikeouts for where he was getting taken. Even though the strand rate is a ridiculous 45.8%, and he should bounce back to a degree, the xFIP is 4.05 and he may ultimately not provide a good ROI, as Ariel Cohen would say. If you drafted him I would be legitimately concerned.
Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): For me personally – Jake McCarthy, as I have a ton of shares in leagues. He was to be counted on for a plus average and a ton of steals. He’s starting to quickly lose playing time and bat at the bottom of the order.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): It’s still far too small a sample size to evaluate outcomes, but pitcher fastball velocity is one of the few metrics that is meaningful this early. I would be worried about starters whose fastball velocities have been down significantly compared to last year, such as Eric Lauer, Noah Syndergaard, and Luis Castillo, among others.
Matt Williams (The Game Day, @MattWi77iams): Alek Manoah. I am very concerned about the results following his BABIP and HR/9 regression. He had many red flags coming into the season, and they are all proving to be legitimate.
Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): It has to be Alek Manoah. His slider command is far worse, he hasn’t improved upon his sinker’s 2022 failures, and his elite four-seamer isn’t returning the whiffs it needs to. You can’t fully count him out right now, but he should be considered differently than we did in March.
Joe Gallina (Fantasy Alarm, @joegallina): Juan Soto. He obviously has enough talent to quickly turn his season around but the fact that he’s been slumping for over a year is concerning. He’s still walking a ton, but his strikeout rate is up, he’s chasing more pitches outside the strike zone, his average exit velocity is down again this season, and he can’t catch up to fastballs. Something’s up.
Frank Ammirante (The GameDayHQ, @FAmmiranteTFJ): I’ll go with the consensus here and choose Alek Manoah. He came into the year as a player to avoid because he was ripe for negative regression after his performance did not match his peripherals. We’re now seeing that come to fruition. It’s possible that Manoah is this year’s Jose Berrios — shoutout to Mike Kurland of The Athletic for this comp.
Brad Johnson (Patreon BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I realize he’s coming off a couple acceptable outings, but I’m concerned about Chris Bassitt. Last season, he was one of the slowest to the plate between pitches, and he has something like 11 distinct offerings in his repertoire. I was worried about his ability to cope with the pitch clock all winter. The early results suggest those worries were well-founded.
Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): Lots of Alek Manoah on here already but I’d be lying if I answered someone else. I avoided him during draft season — despite a 2.24 ERA, he had a higher xFIP (3.97) than Kyle Gibson (3.94) and Corey Kluber (3.92) last year — but even haters like me didn’t see anything like this coming. His strikeout rate (16.5%) is ninth worst among qualified starters, while his walk rate (15.5%) is third worst.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I believed the offseason naysaying on Alek Manoah and didn’t draft him anywhere, but it is nonetheless alarming to see his StatCast hard-hit rate up almost 40% from last season (31.5% then, 43.8% now), and his Barrels rate is up 75% (9.4% from 5.4%). Manoah also fails the “eye test”—he seems frustrated during games at his ineffectiveness and isn’t the ebullient guy of 2022. Something’s wrong there. I do have one share of Bo Bichette, and while I’m quite fine with his .373/.397/.587, he has yet to steal a base and has only tried once. Given the expectation of a game wide track meet this season, I was kinda counting on Bichette getting back to 25+ bags, based on 25 in 2021.
Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): Jose Abreu has hit .296 over his last 300 plate appearances, which is great. However, Houston nor fantasy managers rostered Abreu primarily for his batting average so the fact he has but one home run in that same time is incredibly concerning. Perhaps he and Yandy Diaz did some Freaky Friday body switch thing because Diaz looks like Abreu in his prime these days while Abreu looks more like Diaz a few years ago who could not get the ball off the ground. 39% pull rate with a 1.7 GB/FB is not the recipe for future homer success. That 2% HR/FB ratio can’t live on forever, but this is getting touch to watch.
Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): It may seem crazy, but I am worried about Juan Soto. He did not exactly tear it up after going to San Diego last year, and he has gotten off to a miserable start this season. He stated he is having some difficulty adjusting to the pitch clock, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt right now as he gets more used to the timing of his at bats. He is too talented to continue struggling like this, but there is definite concern building. I will also say I am concerned about Oscar Gonzalez who has become merely a platoon player. There was a lot of hype around him coming into 2023, and I bought into it in several leagues. I have already dropped him in a couple leagues as I did not have the flexibility to be patient. If he does not turn things around soon, he may not be given many more chances.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): Max Scherzer. He’s not finished, but his stuff looks diminished and he’s really laboring. Might need a Plan B if you were banking on him to deliver SP1 performance.
Chris Blessing (BaseballHQ, @C_Blessing): I only have one share of Logan Webb but it’s a share I was counting on in a QS dynasty League. FB command had been lacking, missing in spots he can’t afford to miss at.
Phil Hertz (Baseball HQ, @prhz50): I’ve been watching Joey Meneses and Jake McCarthy. They were both studs after the All-Star break in 2022. At this point, the second half of 2022 is a distant memory. If there’s no turn around soon, many fantasy managers are going to be disappointed.
Eric Samulski (Rotoballer, @SamskiNYC): Right now, swing% stats are the only ones that have come close to stabilizing, so I’m trying not to panic too much about players who just have low barrel rates or something similar. However, both MJ Melendez and Oscar Colas are two players I have exposure to who have troubling plate discipline metrics. Melendez has a 17.3% SwStr% and just a 71% zone contact rate, while Colas has a 15.9% SwStr% and a concerning 47.9% O-Swing%. If he doesn’t control some of the aggression, he could lose RF at-bats to Gavin Sheets and maybe Dh at-bats to Jake Burger.
Sky Dombroske (Fantistics Insider Baseball, @SkyDombroske): The answer is definitely Manoah, but I’ll be different and say Jordan Walker, at least in redraft leagues. The power has just been sort of average due to the massive amount of GB, and the swing and miss has been just as bad as advertised. It just feels like he’s not quite ready yet, and at the rate he was flying up draft boards in March that has to lead to some pretty aggravated owners.
Vlad Sedler (FTN Fantasy, @rotogut): Worried mostly about Juan Soto because of his draft capital (first rounder) and the fact that he seems comfortable drawing walks instead of swinging. Soto has been vocal about not loving hitting high in the batting order and had issues with Davey Martinez about it in Washington. Hopefully the returns of Tatis helps reinvigorate him. Walks are great and all if you’re in a points league, but you want your first or second round pick producing in HR and RBI as well.
Dylan White (Baseball America, @the__arrival): I think the answer for me is Jake McCarthy. There were a lot of potential warning signs for 2023 – a surplus of viable outfielders in Arizona, platoon split concerns, short track record, and even that his ability to stolen bases may not be as much of a standout tool under the new environment – but he was still being taken quite early as an SB source in that Bryan Reynolds/Taylor Ward area. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been great. The BABIP is comically low and obviously due for some positive regression – but he isn’t even stealing bases and has been steadily losing playing time, even against right-handed pitchers. I’m worried he doesn’t come close to providing positive value…and I don’t even mean at his cost.
Tim McLeod (PattonandCo, @RunTMc59006473): I’m surprised no one has mentioned Gunnar Henderson. As a ROY favourite and pre-season Top-100 player, the 9-for-51 start with only one HR and one SB is very concerning, especially for those that invested in ReDraft Leagues.
Adam Ronis (Fantasy Alarm, @AdamRonis): Jose Abreu is a concern. The power was down last year but moving to Houston provided some potential for more power considering he made a lot of hard contact last season. He has yet to homer, walking less, chasing more pitches and making less hard contact.
Lauren Auerbach (Fantrax, @lkauerbach): It’s MJ Melendez for me. He’s striking out at a 33.8% clip and his zone contact rate has dropped to 71.6%. Part of Melendez’s appeal as a catcher is that he would get a bunch of playing time near the top of the order. But that’s now in question as he batted sixth the other day. Sure, Melendez smokes the ball when he does make contact. But that’s likely cold comfort for fantasy managers at the moment.
Zach Steinhorn (Steinhorn’s Universe on Substack, @zachsteinhorn): It’s still too early to get overly concerned about anyone but I agree with Tim on Gunnar Henderson. He was a player who I generally avoided in drafts as I felt that the cost was too steep for a guy who had yet to accomplish much at the major league level. Maybe he will prove the doubters wrong but as of now, passing on Henderson and drafting Matt Chapman 50 picks later is looking like the wiser move.
Brad Johnson (Patreon BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): re: Gunnar Henderson, the guy is averaging 92-mph EVs at an ideal launch angle. The EVs are real. The LA might be a small sample thing. Since the start of last season, Henderson is 18th in average EV. There are a couple “busts” on the list (Sam Hilliard, David Bote, Jorge Soler), but overall, I’d be looking at this as a buying opportunity rather than cause for concern.
Scott Chu (Pitcher List, @ifthechufits): Jake Mccarthy isn’t hitting at all on a team with a lot of young OF options. The Diamondbacks don’t need to be patient or loyal with him, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was in a full platoon at the bottom of the order by May. Miguel Vargas is also very much on my mind, as his extreme patience hasn’t been on display lately (7.9% walk rate over his last 10 games) and he’s done exceptionally little damage when he makes contact. Players like Vargas who rarely swing need to punish the ball when they hit it, yet Vargas has a sub-40% hard hit rate and just 4 XBH (no HRs) on the season. With 0 HR, 0 SB, and just 3 RBI, at what point do we have to cut bait in 12-teamers? Or 15?
Kev Mahserejian (Fox Sports, @RotoSurgeon): Javy Baez is doing very little to inspire confidence in a bounce-back (that I bought into this past offseason). While he has cut his strikeout rate considerably as it sits below 20% for the first time in his career, he is doing that at a complete cost of his power with 0 barrels on 49 batted balls. Baez has the 11th-lowest xwOBA in baseball and he has not even attempted a single steal. The beauty of El Mago in fantasy was his ability to sustain a high average and plus power with a K-rate that hovered around 30% for years. Can we go back to that?